Bio-energy retains its mitigation potential under elevated CO2

Background If biofuels are to be a viable substitute for fossil fuels, it is essential that they retain their potential to mitigate climate change under future atmospheric conditions. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] stimulates plant biomass production; however, the beneficial effects of increased production may be offset by higher energy costs in crop management. Methodology/Main findings We maintained full size poplar short rotation coppice (SRC) systems under both current ambient and future elevated [CO2] (550 ppm) and estimated their net energy and greenhouse gas balance. We show that a poplar SRC system is energy efficient and produces more energy than required for coppice management. Even more, elevated [CO2] will increase the net energy production and greenhouse gas balance of a SRC system with 18%. Managing the trees in shorter rotation cycles (i.e. 2 year cycles instead of 3 year cycles) will further enhance the benefits from elevated [CO2] on both the net energy and greenhouse gas balance. Conclusions/significance Adapting coppice management to the future atmospheric [CO2] is necessary to fully benefit from the climate mitigation potential of bio-energy systems. Further, a future increase in potential biomass production due to elevated [CO2] outweighs the increased production costs resulting in a northward extension of the area where SRC is greenhouse gas neutral. Currently, the main part of the European terrestrial carbon sink is found in forest biomass and attributed to harvesting less than the annual growth in wood. Because SRC is intensively managed, with a higher turnover in wood production than conventional forest, northward expansion of SRC is likely to erode the European terrestrial carbon sink.

Extracts of tropical African spices are active against Plutella xylostella

Extracts from Piper guineense, Aframomum melegueta, Aframomum citratum and Afrostyrax kamerunensis were investigated for their antifeedant, lethal and developmental effects against Plutella xylostella larvae through laboratory dual-choice tests and topical application. Water and ethanol extracts of P. guineense were dose-dependent antifeedants at concentrations ≥300 and 500 ppm, respectively, whilst methanol extracts required ≥1,000 ppm. Methanol and hexane extracts of A. melegueta acted at ≥100 ppm and water extracts at ≥300 ppm, but ethanol extracts were deterring feeding only slightly at ≥1,000 ppm. Hexane and methanol extracts of A. citratum inhibited feeding at ≥300 ppm and water extracts did so at ≥500 ppm. None of the Afrostyrax kamerunensis extracts deterred feeding at any of the concentrations tested. No mortality was observed at any of the concentrations after topical application of the extracts on the larvae. However, the effects on larval development varied with extract concentration and larval age. Ingestion of the water and ethanol extracts of P. guineense caused 100% mortality of second instars at ≥100 ppm two to three days after infestation (DAI). Methanol and water extracts of A. melegueta and A. citratum, respectively, achieved ≥80% mortality of larvae at concentrations of ≥500 ppm and ≥1,000 ppm, respectively. With third instars, the mortalities were significantly lower; however, the P. guineense water or ethanol extracts caused 100% mortality two to four DAI. Larvae that survived till pupation had significantly longer larval periods compared with the control after application of A. melegueta extracts. We concluded that potent extracts from Aframomum melegueta, Aframomum citratum and especially P. guineense could be used as complementary measures in the management of P. xylostella by subsistence farmers.

Interaction of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) with a monolayer of oleic acid at the air–water interface – A simple proxy for atmospheric aerosol

The reactions between atmospheric oxidants and organic amphiphiles at the air water interface of an aerosol droplet may affect the size and critical supersaturation required for cloud droplet formation. We demonstrate that no reaction occurs between gaseous nitrogen dioxide (1000 ppm in air) and a monolayer of an insoluble amphiphile, oleic acid (cis-9-octadecenoic acid), at the air water interface which removes material from the air water interface. We present evidence that the NO2 isomerises the cis-9-octadecenoic (oleic) acid to trans-9-octadecenoic (elaidic) acid. The study presented here is important for future and previous studies of (1) the reaction between the nitrate radical, NO3, and thin organic films as NO2 is usually present in high concentrations in these experimental systems and (2) the effect of NO2 air pollution on the unsaturated fatty acids and lipids found at the air liquid surface of human lung lining fluid.

Last Glacial Maximum CO2 and δ13C successfully reconciled

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21,000 years ago) the cold climate was strongly tied to low atmospheric CO2 concentration (∼190 ppm). Although it is generally assumed that this low CO2 was due to an expansion of the oceanic carbon reservoir, simulating the glacial level has remained a challenge especially with the additional δ13C constraint. Indeed the LGM carbon cycle was also characterized by a modern-like δ13C in the atmosphere and a higher surface to deep Atlantic δ13C gradient indicating probable changes in the thermohaline circulation. Here we show with a model of intermediate complexity, that adding three oceanic mechanisms: brine induced stratification, stratification-dependant diffusion and iron fertilization to the standard glacial simulation (which includes sea level drop, temperature change, carbonate compensation and terrestrial carbon release) decreases CO2 down to the glacial value of ∼190 ppm and simultaneously matches glacial atmospheric and oceanic δ13C inferred from proxy data. LGM CO2 and δ13C can at last be successfully reconciled.

A novel satellite mission concept for upper air water vapour, aerosol and cloud observations using integrated path differential absorption LiDAR limb sounding

We propose a new satellite mission to deliver high quality measurements of upper air water vapour. The concept centres around a LiDAR in limb sounding by occultation geometry, designed to operate as a very long path system for differential absorption measurements. We present a preliminary performance analysis with a system sized to send 75 mJ pulses at 25 Hz at four wavelengths close to 935 nm, to up to 5 microsatellites in a counter-rotating orbit, carrying retroreflectors characterized by a reflected beam divergence of roughly twice the emitted laser beam divergence of 15 µrad. This provides water vapour profiles with a vertical sampling of 110 m; preliminary calculations suggest that the system could detect concentrations of less than 5 ppm. A secondary payload of a fairly conventional medium resolution multispectral radiometer allows wide-swath cloud and aerosol imaging. The total weight and power of the system are estimated at 3 tons and 2,700 W respectively. This novel concept presents significant challenges, including the performance of the lasers in space, the tracking between the main spacecraft and the retroreflectors, the refractive effects of turbulence, and the design of the telescopes to achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio for the high precision measurements. The mission concept was conceived at the Alpbach Summer School 2010.

Brodifacoum is effective against Norway Rats (Rattus norvegicus) in a tyrosine139cysteine focus of anticoagulant resistance, Westphalia, Germany

BACKGROUND: The single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), and consequent amino acid exchange from tyrosine to cysteine at location 139 of the vkorc1 gene (i.e. tyrosine139cysteine or Y139C), is the most widespread anticoagulant resistance mutation in Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus Berk.) in Europe. Field trials were conducted to determine incidence of the Y139C SNP at two rat infested farms in Westphalia, Germany, and to estimate the practical efficacy against them of applications, using a pulsed baiting treatment regime, of a proprietary bait (KleratTM) containing 50 ppm brodifacoum. RESULTS: DNA analysis for the Y139C mutation showed that resistant rats were prevalent at the two farms, with an incidence of 80.0% and 78.6% respectively. Applications of brodifacoum bait achieved results of 99.2% and 100.0% control at the two farms, when measured by census baiting, although the treatment was somewhat prolonged at one site due to the abundance of attractive alternative food. CONCLUSION: The study showed that 50 ppm brodifacoum bait is fully effective against the Y139C SNP at the Münsterland focus and is likely to be so elsewhere in Europe where this mutation is found. The pulsed baiting regime reduced to relatively low levels the quantity of bait required to control these two substantial resistant Norway rat infestations. Previous studies had shown much larger quantities of bromadiolone and difenacoum baits used in ineffective treatments against Y139C resistant rats in the Münsterland. These results should be considered when making decisions about the use of anticoagulant against resistant Norway rats and their potential environmental impacts.

Fluoroquinolone treatment of experimental Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 infections in chickens selects for both gyrA mutations and changes in efflux pump gene expression

Objectives: To determine the efficacy of enrofloxacin (Baytril) in chickens in eradicating three different resistance phenotypes of Salmonella enterica and to examine the resistance mechanisms of resulting mutants. Methods: In two separate replicate experiments (I and 11), three strains of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 [strain A, fully antibiotic-sensitive strain; strain B, isogenic multiple antibiotic-resistant (MAR) derivative of A; strain C, veterinary penta-resistant phenotype strain containing GyrA Phe-83], were inoculated into day-old chicks at similar to 10(3) Cfu/bird. At day 10, groups of chicks (n =10) were given either enrofloxacin at 50 ppm in their drinking water for 5 days or water alone (control). Caecal contents were monitored for presence of Salmonella and colonies were replica plated to media containing antibiotics or overlaid with cyclohexane to determine the proportion of isolates with reduced susceptibility. The MICs of antibiotics and cyclohexane tolerance were determined for selected isolates from the chicks. Mutations in topoisomerase genes were examined by DHPLC and expression of marA, soxS, acrB, acrD and acrF by RT-PCR. Results: In experiment 1, but not 11, enrofloxacin significantly reduced the numbers of strain A compared with the untreated control group. In experiment 11, but not 1, enrofloxacin significantly reduced the numbers of strain B. Shedding of strain C was unaffected by enrofloxacin treatment. Birds infected with strains A and B gave rise to isolates with decreased fluoroquinolone susceptibility. Isolates derived from strain A or B requiring > 128 mg/L nalidixic acid for inhibition contained GyrA Asn-82 or Phe-83. Isolates inhibited by 16 mg/L nalidixic acid were also less susceptible to antibiotics of other chemical classes and became cyclohexane-tolerant (e.g. MAR). Conclusions: These studies demonstrate that recommended enrofloxacin treatment of chicks rapidly selects for strains with reduced fluoroquinolone susceptibility from fully sensitive and MAR strains. It can also select for MAR isolates.

Modification of enrofloxacin treatment regimens for poultry experimentally infected with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 to minimize selection of resistance

We hypothesized that higher doses of fluoroquinolones for a shorter duration could maintain efficacy (as measured by reduction in bacterial count) while reducing selection in chickens of bacteria with reduced susceptibility. Chicks were infected with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 and treated 1 week later with enrofloxacin at the recommended dose for 5 days (water dose adjusted to give 10 mg/kg of body weight of birds or equivalence, i.e., water at 50 ppm) or at 2.5 or 5 times the recommended dose for 2 days or 1 day, respectively. The dose was delivered continuously (ppm) or pulsed in the water (mg/kg) or by gavage (mg/kg). In vitro in sera, increasing concentrations of 0.5 to 8 mu g/ml enrofloxacin correlated with increased activity. In vivo, the efficacy of the 1-day treatment was significantly less than that of the 2- and 5-day treatments. The 2-day treatments showed efficacy similar to that of the 5-day treatment in all but one repeat treatment group and significantly (P < 0.01) reduced the Salmonella counts. Dosing at 2.5x the recommended dose and pulsed dosing both increased the peak antibiotic concentrations in cecal contents, liver, lung, and sera as determined by high-pressure liquid chromatography. There was limited evidence that shorter treatment regimens (in particular the 1-day regimen) selected for fewer strains with reduced susceptibility. In conclusion, the 2-day treatment would overall require a shorter withholding time than the 5-day treatment and, in view of the increased peak antibiotic concentrations, may give rise to improved efficacy, in particular for treating respiratory and systemic infections. However, it would be necessary to validate the 2-day regimen in a field situation and in particular against respiratory and systemic infections to validate or refute this hypothesis.

Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials

Ice core evidence indicates that even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed ~300 ppm at any point during the last 800 000 years, East Antarctica was at least ~3–4 °C warmer than preindustrial (CO2~280 ppm) in each of the last four interglacials. During the previous three interglacials, this anomalous warming was short lived (~3000 years) and apparently occurred before the completion of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. Hereafter, we refer to these periods as "Warmer than Present Transients" (WPTs). We present a series of experiments to investigate the impact of deglacial meltwater on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic temperature. It is well known that a slowed AMOC would increase southern sea surface temperature (SST) through the bipolar seesaw and observational data suggests that the AMOC remained weak throughout the terminations preceding WPTs, strengthening rapidly at a time which coincides closely with peak Antarctic temperature. We present two 800 kyr transient simulations using the Intermediate Complexity model GENIE-1 which demonstrate that meltwater forcing generates transient southern warming that is consistent with the timing of WPTs, but is not sufficient (in this single parameterisation) to reproduce the magnitude of observed warmth. In order to investigate model and boundary condition uncertainty, we present three ensembles of transient GENIE-1 simulations across Termination II (135 000 to 124 000 BP) and three snapshot HadCM3 simulations at 130 000 BP. Only with consideration of the possible feedback of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat does it become possible to simulate the magnitude of observed warming.

Large inert carbon pool in the terrestrial biosphere at the Last Glacial Maximum

During each of the late Pleistocene glacial–interglacial transitions, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rose by almost 100 ppm. The sources of this carbon are unclear, and efforts to identify them are hampered by uncertainties in the magnitude of carbon reservoirs and fluxes under glacial conditions. Here we use oxygen isotope measurements from air trapped in ice cores and ocean carbon-cycle modelling to estimate terrestrial and oceanic gross primary productivity during the Last Glacial Maximum. We find that the rate of gross terrestrial primary production during the Last Glacial Maximum was about 40±10 Pg C yr−1, half that of the pre-industrial Holocene. Despite the low levels of photosynthesis, we estimate that the late glacial terrestrial biosphere contained only 330 Pg less carbon than pre-industrial levels. We infer that the area covered by carbon-rich but unproductive biomes such as tundra and cold steppes was significantly larger during the Last Glacial Maximum, consistent with palaeoecological data. Our data also indicate the presence of an inert carbon pool of 2,300 Pg C, about 700 Pg larger than the inert carbon locked in permafrost today. We suggest that the disappearance of this carbon pool at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum may have contributed to the deglacial rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

Impact of strong deep ocean stratification on the glacial carbon cycle

During the Last Glacial Maximum, the climate was substantially colder and the carbon cycle was clearly different from the late Holocene. According to proxy data deep oceanic δ13C was very low, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration also reduced. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain these changes, but none can fully explain the data, especially the very low deep ocean δ13C values. Oceanic core data show that the deep ocean was very cold and salty, which would lead to enhanced deep ocean stratification. We show that such an enhanced stratification in the coupled climate model CLIMBER-2 helps get very low deep oceanic δ13C values. Indeed the simulated δ13C reaches values as low as −0.8‰ in line with proxy data evidences. Moreover it increases the oceanic carbon reservoir leading to a small, yet robust, atmospheric CO2 drop of approximately 10 ppm.

Impact of brine-induced stratification on the glacial carbon cycle

During the cold period of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 21 000 years ago) atmospheric CO2 was around 190 ppm, much lower than the pre-industrial concentration of 280 ppm. The causes of this substantial drop remain partially unresolved, despite intense research. Understanding the origin of reduced atmospheric CO2 during glacial times is crucial to comprehend the evolution of the different carbon reservoirs within the Earth system (atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere and ocean). In this context, the ocean is believed to play a major role as it can store large amounts of carbon, especially in the abyss, which is a carbon reservoir that is thought to have expanded during glacial times. To create this larger reservoir, one possible mechanism is to produce very dense glacial waters, thereby stratifying the deep ocean and reducing the carbon exchange between the deep and upper ocean. The existence of such very dense waters has been inferred in the LGM deep Atlantic from sediment pore water salinity and δ18O inferred temperature. Based on these observations, we study the impact of a brine mechanism on the glacial carbon cycle. This mechanism relies on the formation and rapid sinking of brines, very salty water released during sea ice formation, which brings salty dense water down to the bottom of the ocean. It provides two major features: a direct link from the surface to the deep ocean along with an efficient way of setting a strong stratification. We show with the CLIMBER-2 carbon-climate model that such a brine mechanism can account for a significant decrease in atmospheric CO2 and contribute to the glacial-interglacial change. This mechanism can be amplified by low vertical diffusion resulting from the brine-induced stratification. The modeled glacial distribution of oceanic δ13C as well as the deep ocean salinity are substantially improved and better agree with reconstructions from sediment cores, suggesting that such a mechanism could have played an important role during glacial times.

Systematic study of the impact of fresh water fluxes on the glacial carbon cycle

During glacial periods, atmospheric CO2 concentration increases and decreases by around 15 ppm. At the same time, the climate changes gradually in Antarctica. Such climate changes can be simulated in models when the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Oceanic Circulation) is weakened by adding fresh water to the North Atlantic. The impact on the carbon cycle is less straightforward, and previous studies give opposite results. Because the models and the fresh water fluxes were different in these studies, it prevents any direct comparison and hinders finding whether the discrepancies arise from using different models or different fresh water fluxes. In this study we use the CLIMBER-2 coupled climate carbon model to explore the impact of different fresh water fluxes. In both preindustrial and glacial states, the addition of fresh water and the resulting slow-down of the AMOC lead to an uptake of carbon by the ocean and a release by the terrestrial biosphere. The duration, shape and amplitude of the fresh water flux all have an impact on the change of atmospheric CO2 because they modulate the change of the AMOC. The maximum CO2 change linearly depends on the time integral of the AMOC change. The different duration, amplitude, and shape of the fresh water flux cannot explain the opposite evolution of ocean and vegetation carbon inventory in different models. The different CO2 evolution thus depends on the AMOC response to the addition of fresh water and the resulting climatic change, which are both model dependent. In CLIMBER-2, the rise of CO2 recorded in ice cores during abrupt events can be simulated under glacial conditions, especially when the sinking of brines in the Southern Ocean is taken into account. The addition of fresh water in the Southern Hemisphere leads to a decline of CO2, contrary to the addition of fresh water in the Northern Hemisphere.

Impact of oceanic processes on the carbon cycle during the last termination

During the last termination (from ~18 000 years ago to ~9000 years ago), the climate significantly warmed and the ice sheets melted. Simultaneously, atmospheric CO2 increased from ~190 ppm to ~260 ppm. Although this CO2 rise plays an important role in the deglacial warming, the reasons for its evolution are difficult to explain. Only box models have been used to run transient simulations of this carbon cycle transition, but by forcing the model with data constrained scenarios of the evolution of temperature, sea level, sea ice, NADW formation, Southern Ocean vertical mixing and biological carbon pump. More complex models (including GCMs) have investigated some of these mechanisms but they have only been used to try and explain LGM versus present day steady-state climates. In this study we use a coupled climate-carbon model of intermediate complexity to explore the role of three oceanic processes in transient simulations: the sinking of brines, stratification-dependent diffusion and iron fertilization. Carbonate compensation is accounted for in these simulations. We show that neither iron fertilization nor the sinking of brines alone can account for the evolution of CO2, and that only the combination of the sinking of brines and interactive diffusion can simultaneously simulate the increase in deep Southern Ocean δ13C. The scenario that agrees best with the data takes into account all mechanisms and favours a rapid cessation of the sinking of brines around 18 000 years ago, when the Antarctic ice sheet extent was at its maximum. In this scenario, we make the hypothesis that sea ice formation was then shifted to the open ocean where the salty water is quickly mixed with fresher water, which prevents deep sinking of salty water and therefore breaks down the deep stratification and releases carbon from the abyss. Based on this scenario, it is possible to simulate both the amplitude and timing of the long-term CO2 increase during the last termination in agreement with ice core data. The atmospheric δ13C appears to be highly sensitive to changes in the terrestrial biosphere, underlining the need to better constrain the vegetation evolution during the termination.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.