El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook March 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during the summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work, providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and DJF 2015/2016, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Mar 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of AM 2016 and JJA 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts. This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

Regional atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum and its links to precipitation

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exhibits different large-scale atmospheric conditions compared to present-day climate due to altered boundary conditions. The regional atmospheric circulation and associated precipitation patterns over Europe are characterized for the first time with a weather typing approach (circulation weather types, CWT) for LGM paleoclimate simulations. The CWT approach is applied to four representative regions across Europe. While the CWTs over Western Europe are prevailing westerly for both present-day and LGM conditions, considerable differences are identified elsewhere: Southern Europe experienced more frequent westerly and cyclonic CWTs under LGM conditions, while Central and Eastern Europe was predominantly affected by southerly and easterly flow patterns. Under LGM conditions, rainfall is enhanced over Western Europe but is reduced over most of Central and Eastern Europe. These differences are explained by changing CWT frequencies and evaporation patterns over the North Atlantic Ocean. The regional differences of the CWTs and precipitation patterns are linked to the North Atlantic storm track, which was stronger over Europe in all considered models during the LGM, explaining the overall increase of the cyclonic CWT. Enhanced evaporation over the North Atlantic leads to higher moisture availability over the ocean. Despite the overall cooling during the LGM, this explains the enhanced precipitation over southwestern Europe, particularly Iberia. This study links large-scale atmospheric dynamics to the regional circulation and associated precipitation patterns and provides an improved regional assessment of the European climate under LGM conditions.

Comparison of aerosol optical properties above clouds between POLDER and AeroCom models over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season

Aerosol properties above clouds have been retrieved over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season 2006 using satellite observations from POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances). From June to October, POLDER has observed a mean Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Thickness (ACAOT) of 0.28 and a mean Above-Clouds Single Scattering Albedo (ACSSA) of 0.87 at 550 nm. These results have been used to evaluate the simulation of aerosols above clouds in 5 AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) models (GOCART, HadGEM3, ECHAM5-HAM2, OsloCTM2 and SPRINTARS). Most models do not reproduce the observed large aerosol load episodes. The comparison highlights the importance of the injection height and the vertical transport parameterizations to simulate the large ACAOT observed by POLDER. Furthermore, POLDER ACSSA is best reproduced by models with a high imaginary part of black carbon refractive index, in accordance with recent recommendations.

Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: a PDRMIP multi-model study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies (e.g. Joos et al., 2004; Kaplan et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2013) have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) one in which potential natural vegetation was simulated by Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) but without land use changes and (ii) one where the anthropogenic land use model Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010 (KK10; Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) was used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations were run at 1000-year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results from our model simulations indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and south-east Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June–July–August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. The global annual mean temperature anomalies found in our single model simulations were −0.22 at 1850 CE, −0.11 at 2 ka BP, and −0.03 °C at 7 ka BP. Regionally, the largest temperature changes were in Europe with anomalies of −0.83 at 1850 CE, −0.58 at 2 ka BP, and −0.24 °C at 7 ka BP. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies, and tropospheric stationary wave train disturbances in the mid- to high latitudes led to remote teleconnections.

Season changes in water quality and Sargassum biomass in Southwest Australia

Sargassum C. Agardh is one of the most diverse genera of marine macro-algae and commonly inhabits shallow tropical and sub-tropical waters. This study aimed to investigate the effect of seasonality and the associated water quality changes on the distribution, canopy cover, mean thallus length and the biomass of Sargassum beds around Point Peron, Shoalwater Islands Marine Park, Southwest Australia. Samples of Sargassum and seawater were collected every three months from summer 2012 to summer 2014 from four different reef zones. A combination of in situ observations and WorldView-2 satellite remote-sensing images were used to map the spatial distribution of Sargassum beds and other associated benthic habitats. The results demonstrated a strong seasonal variation in the environmental parameters, canopy cover, mean thallus length, and biomass of Sargassum, which were significantly (P < 0.05) influenced by the nutrient concentration (PO43-, NO3-, NH4+) and rainfall. However, no variation in any studied parameter was observed among the four reef zones. The highest Sargassum biomass peaks occurred between late spring and early summer (from September to January). The results provide essential information to guide effective conservation and management, as well as sustainable utilisation of this coastal marine renewable resource.

Triple isotope (δD, δ17O, δ18O) study on precipitation, drip water and speleothem fluid inclusions for a central European cave (NW Switzerland)

Deuterium (dD) and oxygen (d18O) isotopes are powerful tracers of the hydrological cycle and have been extensively used for paleoclimate reconstructions as they can provide information on past precipitation, temperature and atmospheric circulation. More recently, the use of 17Oexcess derived from precise measurement of d17O and d18O gives new and additional insights in tracing the hydrological cycle whereas uncertainties surround this proxy. However, 17Oexcess could provide additional information on the atmospheric conditions at the moisture source as well as about fractionations associated with transport and site processes. In this paper we trace water stable isotopes (dD, d17O and d18O) along their path from precipitation to cave drip water and finally to speleothem fluid inclusions for Milandre cave in northwestern Switzerland. A two year-long daily resolved precipitation isotope record close to the cave site is compared to collected cave drip water (3 months average resolution) and fluid inclusions of modern and Holocene stalagmites. Amount weighted mean dD, d18O and d17O are �71.0‰, �9.9‰, �5.2‰ for precipitation, �60.3‰, �8.7‰, �4.6‰ for cave drip water and �61.3‰, �8.3‰, �4.7‰ for recent fluid inclusions respectively. Second order parameters have also been derived in precipitation and drip water and present similar values with 18 per meg for 17Oexcess whereas d-excess is 1.5‰ more negative in drip water. Furthermore, the atmospheric signal is shifted towards enriched values in the drip water and fluid inclusions (D of ~ þ 10‰ for dD). The isotopic composition of cave drip water exhibits a weak seasonal signal which is shifted by around 8e10 months (groundwater residence time) when compared to the precipitation. Moreover, we carried out the first d17O measurement in speleothem fluid inclusions, as well as the first comparison of the d17O behaviour from the meteoric water to the fluid inclusions entrapment in speleothems. This study on precipitation, drip water and fluid inclusions will be used as a speleothem proxy calibration for Milandre cave in order to reconstruct paleotemperatures and moisture source variations for Western Central Europe.

Timing and nature of the penultimate deglaciation in a high alpine stalagmite from Switzerland

The timing and nature of the penultimate deglaciation, also known as Termination II (T-II), is subject of controversial discussions due to the scarcity of precisely-dated palaeoclimate records. Here we present a new precisely-dated and highly-resolved multi-proxy stalagmite record covering T-II from the high alpine Schafsloch Cave in Switzerland, an area where climate is governed by the North Atlantic. The inception of stalagmite growth at 137.4 ± 1.4 kyr before present (BP) indicates the presence of drip water and cave air temperatures of above 0°C, and is related to a climate-induced change in the thermal state (from cold- to warm-based) of the glacier above the cave. The cessation of stalagmite growth between 133.1 ± 0.7 and 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is most likely related to distinct drop in temperature associated with Heinrich stadial 11. The resumption of stalagmite growth at 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is accompanied by an abrupt increase in temperature and precipitation as indicated by distinct shifts in the oxygen and carbon isotopic composition as well as in trace element concentrations. The mid-point of T-II is around 131.8 ± 0.6 kyr BP in the Schafsloch Cave record is significantly earlier compared to the age of 129.1 ± 0.1 kyr BP in the Sanbao Cave record from China. The different ages between both records can be best explained by the competing effects of insolation and glacial boundary forcing on seasonality and snow cover extent in Eurasia.

Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Understanding how human influence on climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider novel ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations.