Analyzing the persuasion context of the persuasive systems design model with the 3D-RAB model

Research into design methodology is one of the most challenging issues in the field of persuasive technology. However, the introduction of the Persuasive Systems Design model, and the consideration of the 3-Dimensional Re-lationship between Attitude and Behavior, offer to make persuasive technolo-gies more practically viable. In this paper we demonstrate how the 3-Dimensional Relationship between Attitude and Behavior guides the analysis of the persuasion context in the Persuasive System Design model. As a result, we propose a modification of the persuasion context and assert that the technology should be analyzed as part of strategy instead of event.

Effects of modified atmosphere packaging on quality of ‘Alphonso’ Mangoes

Postharvest quality of Alphonso mangoes (Mangifera indica L) is vital to ensure proper ripening and good quality. 500 g mature green mangoes, were subjected to three pre- packaging hot water dips (20, 30 & 40°C) for 40 min, two packaging films (OPP unperforated and perforated), using three levels of gas concentrations of 25,50 and 75% v/v CO2 treatments (balance N2) and stored at 10°C for 21 days. During the storage period headspace gas composition, weight loss, ascorbic acid, pulp firmness, external fruit colour and overall quality score were measured to determine optimum storage conditions. The most effective postharvest condition was found to be dipping in water maintained at 40°C for 40 min, followed by packaging under 50% CO2 in bags made of unperforated film when compared to mangoes packed under 25 and 75% CO2 which showed deteriorated quality including spoilage and mould. Good keeping quality of at least 21 days was achieved under these conditions, which was much superior to the control samples that showed deterioration after 12 days of storage.

A modified rapid enzymatic microtiter plate assay for the quantification of intracellular γ-aminobutyric acid and succinate semialdehyde in bacterial cells

The GABase assay is widely used to rapidly and accurately quantify levels of extracellular γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA). Here we demonstrate a modification of this assay that enables quantification of intracellular GABA in bacterial cells. Cells are lysed by boiling and ethanolamine-O-sulphate, a GABA transaminase inhibitor is used to distinguish between GABA and succinate semialdehyde.

Kinetic model for the formation of acrylamide during the finish-frying of commercial French fries

Acrylamide is formed from reducing sugars and asparagine during the preparation of French fries. The commercial preparation of French fries is a multistage process involving the preparation of frozen, par-fried potato strips for distribution to catering outlets, where they are finish-fried. The initial blanching, treatment in glucose solution, and par-frying steps are crucial because they determine the levels of precursors present at the beginning of the finish-frying process. To minimize the quantities of acrylamide in cooked fries, it is important to understand the impact of each stage on the formation of acrylamide. Acrylamide, amino acids, sugars, moisture, fat, and color were monitored at time intervals during the frying of potato strips that had been dipped in various concentrations of glucose and fructose during a typical pretreatment. A mathematical model based on the fundamental chemical reaction pathways of the finish-frying was developed, incorporating moisture and temperature gradients in the fries. This showed the contribution of both glucose and fructose to the generation of acrylamide and accurately predicted the acrylamide content of the final fries.

Resolution of sharp fronts in the presence of model error in variational data assimilation

We show that the four-dimensional variational data assimilation method (4DVar) can be interpreted as a form of Tikhonov regularization, a very familiar method for solving ill-posed inverse problems. It is known from image restoration problems that L1-norm penalty regularization recovers sharp edges in the image more accurately than Tikhonov, or L2-norm, penalty regularization. We apply this idea from stationary inverse problems to 4DVar, a dynamical inverse problem, and give examples for an L1-norm penalty approach and a mixed total variation (TV) L1–L2-norm penalty approach. For problems with model error where sharp fronts are present and the background and observation error covariances are known, the mixed TV L1–L2-norm penalty performs better than either the L1-norm method or the strong constraint 4DVar (L2-norm)method. A strength of the mixed TV L1–L2-norm regularization is that in the case where a simplified form of the background error covariance matrix is used it produces a much more accurate analysis than 4DVar. The method thus has the potential in numerical weather prediction to overcome operational problems with poorly tuned background error covariance matrices.

Modelling the impact of land use change on water quality in agricultural catchments

Export coefficient modelling was used to model the impact of agriculture on nitrogen and phosphorus loading on the surface waters of two contrasting agricultural catchments. The model was originally developed for the Windrush catchment where the highly reactive Jurassic limestone aquifer underlying the catchment is well connected to the surface drainage network, allowing the system to be modelled using uniform export coefficients for each nutrient source in the catchment, regardless of proximity to the surface drainage network. In the Slapton catchment, the hydrological path-ways are dominated by surface and lateral shallow subsurface flow, requiring modification of the export coefficient model to incorporate a distance-decay component in the export coefficients. The modified model was calibrated against observed total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads delivered to Slapton Ley from inflowing streams in its catchment. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to isolate the key controls on nutrient export in the modified model. The model was validated against long-term records of water quality, and was found to be accurate in its predictions and sensitive to both temporal and spatial changes in agricultural practice in the catchment. The model was then used to forecast the potential reduction in nutrient loading on Slapton Ley associated with a range of catchment management strategies. The best practicable environmental option (BPEO) was found to be spatial redistribution of high nutrient export risk sources to areas of the catchment with the greatest intrinsic nutrient retention capacity.

The prediction of nutrients into estuaries and their subsequent behaviour: application to the Tamar and comparison with the Tweed, U.K.

Some of the techniques used to model nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) discharges from a terrestrial catchment to an estuary are discussed and applied to the River Tamar and Tamar Estuary system in Southwest England, U.K. Data are presented for dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations in the Tamar Estuary and compared with those from the contrasting, low turbidity and rapidly flushed Tweed Estuary in Northeast England. In the Tamar catchment, simulations showed that effluent nitrate loads for typical freshwater flows contributed less than 1% of the total N load. The effect of effluent inputs on ammonium loads was more significant (∼10%). Cattle, sheep and permanent grassland dominated the N catchment export, with diffuse-source N export greatly dominating that due to point sources. Cattle, sheep, permanent grassland and cereal crops generated the greatest rates of diffuse-source P export. This reflected the higher rates of P fertiliser applications to arable land and the susceptibility of bare, arable land to P export in wetter winter months. N and P export to the Tamar Estuary from human sewage was insignificant. Non-conservative behaviour of phosphate was particularly marked in the Tamar Estuary. Silicate concentrations were slightly less than conservative levels, whereas nitrate was essentially conservative. The coastal sea acted as a sink for these terrestrially derived nutrients. A pronounced sag in dissolved oxygen that was associated with strong nitrite and ammonium peaks occurred in the turbidity maximum region of the Tamar Estuary. Nutrient behaviour within the Tweed was very different. The low turbidity and rapid flushing ensured that nutrients there were essentially conservative, so that flushing of nutrients to the coastal zone from the river occurred with little estuarine modification.

Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis

Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from 14C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance.

The link between the Barents Sea and ENSO events simulated by NEMO model

An analysis of observational data in the Barents Sea along a meridian at 33°30' E between 70°30' and 72°30' N has reported a negative correlation between El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and water temperature in the top 200 m: the temperature drops about 0.5 °C during warm ENSO events while during cold ENSO events the top 200 m layer of the Barents Sea is warmer. Results from 1 and 1/4-degree global NEMO models show a similar response for the whole Barents Sea. During the strong warm ENSO event in 1997–1998 an anomalous anticyclonic atmospheric circulation over the Barents Sea enhances heat loses, as well as substantially influencing the Barents Sea inflow from the North Atlantic, via changes in ocean currents. Under normal conditions along the Scandinavian peninsula there is a warm current entering the Barents Sea from the North Atlantic, however after the 1997–1998 event this current is weakened. During 1997–1998 the model annual mean temperature in the Barents Sea is decreased by about 0.8 °C, also resulting in a higher sea ice volume. In contrast during the cold ENSO events in 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, the model shows a lower sea ice volume, and higher annual mean temperatures in the upper layer of the Barents Sea of about 0.7 °C. An analysis of model data shows that the strength of the Atlantic inflow in the Barents Sea is the main cause of heat content variability, and is forced by changing pressure and winds in the North Atlantic. However, surface heat-exchange with the atmosphere provides the means by which the Barents sea heat budget relaxes to normal in the subsequent year after the ENSO events.

Virulence in the chick model and stress tolerance of Salmonella enterica serovar Orion var. 15+

Three Salmonella enterica serovar Orion var. 15+ isolates of distinct provenance were tested for survival in various stress assays. All were less able to survive desiccation than a virulent S. Enreritidis strain, with levels of survival similar to a rpoS mutant of the S. Enteritidis strain, whereas one isolate (F3720) was significantly more acid tolerant. The S. Orion var. 15+ isolates were motile by flagellae and elaborated type-1 and curli-like fimbriae; surface organelles that are considered virulence determinants in Salmonella pathogenesis. Each adhered and invaded HEp-2 tissue culture cells with similar proficiency to the S. Enteritidis control but were significantly less virulent than S. En teritidis in the one-day-old and seven-day-old chick model. Given an oral dose of 1 x 10(3) cfu to one-day-old chicken, S. Orion var. 15+ isolates colonised 25% of liver and spleens examined at 24 h whereas S. Enteritidis colonised 100% of organs by the same with the same dose. Given an oral dose of 1 x 10(7) cfu at seven-day old, S. Orion var. 15+ failed to colonise livers and spleens in any bird examined at 24 h whereas S. Enteritidis colonised 50% of organs by the same with the same dose. Based on the number of internal organs colonised, one of the three S. Orion var. 15+ isolates tested (strain F3720) was significantly more invasive than the other two (B1 and B7). Also, strain F3720 was shed less than either B1 or B7 supporting the concept that there may be an inverse relationship between the ability to colonise deep tissues and to persist in the gut. These data are discussed in the light that S. Orion var. 15+ is associated with sporadic outbreaks of human infection rather than epidemics.

Dietary fat manipulation has a greater impact on postprandial lipid metabolism than the apolipoprotein E (epsilon) genotype: insights from the SATgenε study

Scope: Our aim was to determine the effects of chronic dietary fat manipulation on postprandial lipaemia according to apolipoprotein (APO)E genotype. Methods and results:Men (mean age 53 (SD 9) years), prospectively recruited for the APOE genotype (n = 12 E3/E3, n = 11 E3/E4), were assigned to a low fat (LF), high fat, high-saturated fat (HSF), and HSF diet with 3.45 g/day docosahexaenoic acid (HSF-DHA), each for an 8-week period in the same order. At the end of each dietary period, a postprandial assessment was performed using a test meal with a macronutrient profile representative of that dietary intervention. A variable postprandial plasma triacylglycerol (TAG) response according to APOE genotype was evident, with a greater sensitivity to the TAG-lowering effects of DHA in APOE4 carriers (p ≤ 0.005). There was a lack of an independent genotype effect on any of the lipid measures. In the groups combined, dietary fat manipulation had a significant impact on lipids in plasma and Svedberg flotation rate (Sf) 60–400 TAG-rich lipoprotein fraction, with lower responses following the HSF-DHA than HSF intervention (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Although a modest impact of APOE genotype was observed on the plasma TAG profile, dietary fat manipulation emerged as a greater modulator of the postprandial lipid response in normolipidaemic men.

Salts responsive nanovesicles through π-stacking induced self-assembly of backbone modified tripeptides

A set of backbone modified peptides of general formula Boc-Xx-m-ABA-Yy-OMe where m-ABA is meta-aminobenzoic acid and Xx and Yy are natural amino acids such as Phe, Gly, Pro, Leu, Ile, Tyr and Trp etc., are found to self-assemble into soft nanovesicular structures in methanol-water solution (9:1 by v/v). At higher concentration the peptides generate larger vesicles which are formed through fusion of smaller vesicles. The formation of vesicles has been facilitated through the participation of various noncovalent interactions such as aromatic pi-stacking, hydrogen bonding and hydrophobic interactions. Model study indicates that the pi-stacking induced self-assembly, mediated by m-ABA is essential for well structured vesicles formation. The presence of conformationally rigid m-ABA in the backbone of the peptides also helps to form vesicular structures by restricting the conformational entropy. The vesicular structures get disrupted in presence of various salts such as KCl, CaCl(2), N(n-Bu)(4)Br and (NH(4))(2)SO(4) in methanol-water solution. Fluorescence microscopy and UV studies reveal that the soft nanovesicles encapsulate organic dye molecules such as Rhodamine B and Acridine Orange which could be released through salts induced disruption of vesicles.

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.

Incorporation of a physically based melt pond scheme into the sea ice component of a climate model

The extent and thickness of the Arctic sea ice cover has decreased dramatically in the past few decades with minima in sea ice extent in September 2005 and 2007. These minima have not been predicted in the IPCC AR4 report, suggesting that the sea ice component of climate models should more realistically represent the processes controlling the sea ice mass balance. One of the processes poorly represented in sea ice models is the formation and evolution of melt ponds. Melt ponds accumulate on the surface of sea ice from snow and sea ice melt and their presence reduces the albedo of the ice cover, leading to further melt. Toward the end of the melt season, melt ponds cover up to 50% of the sea ice surface. We have developed a melt pond evolution theory. Here, we have incorporated this melt pond theory into the Los Alamos CICE sea ice model, which has required us to include the refreezing of melt ponds. We present results showing that the presence, or otherwise, of a representation of melt ponds has a significant effect on the predicted sea ice thickness and extent. We also present a sensitivity study to uncertainty in the sea ice permeability, number of thickness categories in the model representation, meltwater redistribution scheme, and pond albedo. We conclude with a recommendation that our melt pond scheme is included in sea ice models, and the number of thickness categories should be increased and concentrated at lower thicknesses.