Short communication: estimation of the financial benefit of using Jersey milk at different inclusion rates for Cheddar cheese production using partial budgeting

Partial budgeting was used to estimate the net benefit of blending Jersey milk in Holstein-Friesian milk for Cheddar cheese production. Jersey milk increases Cheddar cheese yield. However, the cost of Jersey milk is also higher; thus, determining the balance of profitability is necessary, including consideration of seasonal effects. Input variables were based on a pilot plant experiment run from 2012 to 2013 and industry milk and cheese prices during this period. When Jersey milk was used at an increasing rate with Holstein-Friesian milk (25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk), it resulted in an increase of average net profit of 3.41, 6.44, 8.57, and 11.18 pence per kilogram of milk, respectively, and this additional profit was constant throughout the year. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential input on additional profit was cheese yield, whereas cheese price and milk price had a small effect. The minimum increase in yield, which was necessary for the use of Jersey milk to be profitable, was 2.63, 7.28, 9.95, and 12.37% at 25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk, respectively. Including Jersey milk did not affect the quantity of whey butter and powder produced. Althoug further research is needed to ascertain the amount of additional profit that would be found on a commercial scale, the results indicate that using Jersey milk for Cheddar cheese making would lead to an improvement in profit for the cheese makers, especially at higher inclusion rates.

Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

Interim analyses and sequential designs in phase III studies

Recruitment of patients to a clinical trial usually occurs over a period of time, resulting in the steady accumulation of data throughout the trial's duration. Yet, according to traditional statistical methods, the sample size of the trial should be determined in advance, and data collected on all subjects before analysis proceeds. For ethical and economic reasons, the technique of sequential testing has been developed to enable the examination of data at a series of interim analyses. The aim is to stop recruitment to the study as soon as there is sufficient evidence to reach a firm conclusion. In this paper we present the advantages and disadvantages of conducting interim analyses in phase III clinical trials, together with the key steps to enable the successful implementation of sequential methods in this setting. Examples are given of completed trials, which have been carried out sequentially, and references to relevant literature and software are provided.

CO2 emission estimation in the urban environment: measurement of the CO2 storage term

Eddy covariance has been used in urban areas to evaluate the net exchange of CO2 between the surface and the atmosphere. Typically, only the vertical flux is measured at a height 2–3 times that of the local roughness elements; however, under conditions of relatively low instability, CO2 may accumulate in the airspace below the measurement height. This can result in inaccurate emissions estimates if the accumulated CO2 drains away or is flushed upwards during thermal expansion of the boundary layer. Some studies apply a single height storage correction; however, this requires the assumption that the response of the CO2 concentration profile to forcing is constant with height. Here a full seasonal cycle (7th June 2012 to 3rd June 2013) of single height CO2 storage data calculated from concentrations measured at 10 Hz by open path gas analyser are compared to a data set calculated from a concurrent switched vertical profile measured (2 Hz, closed path gas analyser) at 10 heights within and above a street canyon in central London. The assumption required for the former storage determination is shown to be invalid. For approximately regular street canyons at least one other measurement is required. Continuous measurements at fewer locations are shown to be preferable to a spatially dense, switched profile, as temporal interpolation is ineffective. The majority of the spectral energy of the CO2 storage time series was found to be between 0.001 and 0.2 Hz (500 and 5 s respectively); however, sampling frequencies of 2 Hz and below still result in significantly lower CO2 storage values. An empirical method of correcting CO2 storage values from under-sampled time series is proposed.

English compound and non-compound processing in bilingual and multilingual speakers: effects of dominance and sequential multilingualism

This article reports on a study investigating the relative influence of the first and dominant language on L2 and L3 morpho-lexical processing. A lexical decision task compared the responses to English NV-er compounds (e.g., taxi driver) and non-compounds provided by a group of native speakers and three groups of learners at various levels of English proficiency: L1 Spanish-L2 English sequential bilinguals and two groups of early Spanish-Basque bilinguals with English as their L3. Crucially, the two trilingual groups differed in their first and dominant language (i.e., L1 Spanish-L2 Basque vs. L1 Basque-L2 Spanish). Our materials exploit an (a)symmetry between these languages: while Basque and English pattern together in the basic structure of (productive) NV-er compounds, Spanish presents a construction that differs in directionality as well as inflection of the verbal element (V[3SG] + N). Results show between and within group differences in accuracy and response times that may be ascribable to two factors besides proficiency: the number of languages spoken by a given participant and their dominant language. An examination of response bias reveals an influence of the participants' first and dominant language on the processing of NV-er compounds. Our data suggest that morphological information in the nonnative lexicon may extend beyond morphemic structure and that, similarly to bilingualism, there are costs to sequential multilingualism in lexical retrieval.

Impact of lipoprotein lipase gene polymorphism, S447X, on postprandial triacylglycerol and glucose response to sequential meal ingestion

Lipoprotein lipase (LPL) is a key rate-limiting enzyme for the hydrolysis of triacylglycerol (TAG) in chylomicrons and very low-density lipoprotein. Given that postprandial assessment of lipoprotein metabolism may provide a more physiological perspective of disturbances in lipoprotein homeostasis compared to assessment in the fasting state, we have investigated the influence of two commonly studied LPL polymorphisms (rs320, HindIII; rs328, S447X) on postprandial lipaemia, in 261 participants using a standard sequential meal challenge. S447 homozygotes had lower fasting HDL-C (p = 0.015) and a trend for higher fasting TAG (p = 0.057) concentrations relative to the 447X allele carriers. In the postprandial state, there was an association of the S447X polymorphism with postprandial TAG and glucose, where S447 homozygotes had 12% higher TAG area under the curve (AUC) (p = 0.037), 8.4% higher glucose-AUC (p = 0.006) and 22% higher glucose-incremental area under the curve (IAUC) (p = 0.042). A significant gene–gender interaction was observed for fasting TAG (p = 0.004), TAG-AUC (Pinteraction = 0.004) and TAG-IAUC (Pinteraction = 0.016), where associations were only evident in men. In conclusion, our study provides novel findings of an effect of LPL S447X polymorphism on the postprandial glucose and gender-specific impact of the polymorphism on fasting and postprandial TAG concentrations in response to sequential meal challenge in healthy participants

Sparse density estimation on multinomial manifold combining local component analysis

A new sparse kernel density estimator is introduced based on the minimum integrated square error criterion combining local component analysis for the finite mixture model. We start with a Parzen window estimator which has the Gaussian kernels with a common covariance matrix, the local component analysis is initially applied to find the covariance matrix using expectation maximization algorithm. Since the constraint on the mixing coefficients of a finite mixture model is on the multinomial manifold, we then use the well-known Riemannian trust-region algorithm to find the set of sparse mixing coefficients. The first and second order Riemannian geometry of the multinomial manifold are utilized in the Riemannian trust-region algorithm. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in constructing sparse kernel density estimators with competitive accuracy to existing kernel density estimators.