Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.

Efficient group communication for large-scale parallel clustering

Global communication requirements and load imbalance of some parallel data mining algorithms are the major obstacles to exploit the computational power of large-scale systems. This work investigates how non-uniform data distributions can be exploited to remove the global communication requirement and to reduce the communication cost in iterative parallel data mining algorithms. In particular, the analysis focuses on one of the most influential and popular data mining methods, the k-means algorithm for cluster analysis. The straightforward parallel formulation of the k-means algorithm requires a global reduction operation at each iteration step, which hinders its scalability. This work studies a different parallel formulation of the algorithm where the requirement of global communication can be relaxed while still providing the exact solution of the centralised k-means algorithm. The proposed approach exploits a non-uniform data distribution which can be either found in real world distributed applications or can be induced by means of multi-dimensional binary search trees. The approach can also be extended to accommodate an approximation error which allows a further reduction of the communication costs.

Propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation through the Maritime Continent and scale interaction with the diurnal cycle of precipitation

The convectively active part of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagates eastward through the warm pool, from the Indian Ocean through the Maritime Continent (the Indonesian archipelago) to the western Pacific. The Maritime Continent's complex topography means the exact nature of the MJO propagation through this region is unclear. Model simulations of the MJO are often poor over the region, leading to local errors in latent heat release and global errors in medium-range weather prediction and climate simulation. Using 14 northern winters of TRMM satellite data it is shown that, where the mean diurnal cycle of precipitation is strong, 80% of the MJO precipitation signal in the Maritime Continent is accounted for by changes in the amplitude of the diurnal cycle. Additionally, the relationship between outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and precipitation is weakened here, such that OLR is no longer a reliable proxy for precipitation. The canonical view of the MJO as the smooth eastward propagation of a large-scale precipitation envelope also breaks down over the islands of the Maritime Continent. Instead, a vanguard of precipitation (anomalies of 2.5 mm day^-1 over 10^6 km^2) jumps ahead of the main body by approximately 6 days or 2000 km. Hence, there can be enhanced precipitation over Sumatra, Borneo or New Guinea when the large-scale MJO envelope over the surrounding ocean is one of suppressed precipitation. This behaviour can be accommodated into existing MJO theories. Frictional and topographic moisture convergence and relatively clear skies ahead of the main convective envelope combine with the low thermal inertia of the islands, to allow a rapid response in the diurnal cycle which rectifies onto the lower-frequency MJO. Hence, accurate representations of the diurnal cycle and its scale interaction appear to be necessary for models to simulate the MJO successfully.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent: scale interactions and modelling

The Maritime Continent archipelago, situated on the equator at 95-165E, has the strongest land-based precipitation on Earth. The latent heat release associated with the rainfall affects the atmospheric circulation throughout the tropics and into the extra-tropics. The greatest source of variability in precipitation is the diurnal cycle. The archipelago is within the convective region of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which provides the greatest variability on intra-seasonal time scales: large-scale (∼10^7 km^2) active and suppressed convective envelopes propagate slowly (∼5 m s^-1) eastwards between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. High-resolution satellite data show that a strong diurnal cycle is triggered to the east of the advancing MJO envelope, leading the active MJO by one-eighth of an MJO cycle (∼6 days). Where the diurnal cycle is strong its modulation accounts for 81% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Over land this determines the structure of the diagnosed MJO. This is consistent with the equatorial wave dynamics in existing theories of MJO propagation. The MJO also affects the speed of gravity waves propagating offshore from the Maritime Continent islands. This is largely consistent with changes in static stability during the MJO cycle. The MJO and its interaction with the diurnal cycle are investigated in HiGEM, a high-resolution coupled model. Unlike many models, HiGEM represents the MJO well with eastward-propagating variability on intra-seasonal time scales at the correct zonal wavenumber, although the inter-tropical convergence zone's precipitation peaks strongly at the wrong time, interrupting the MJO's spatial structure. However, the modelled diurnal cycle is too weak and its phase is too early over land. The modulation of the diurnal amplitude by the MJO is also too weak and accounts for only 51% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Implications for forecasting and possible causes of the model errors are discussed, and further modelling studies are proposed.

What does “retrofit” mean, and how can we scale up action in the UK sector?

Purpose – Progress in retrofitting the UK's commercial properties continues to be slow and fragmented. New research from the UK and USA suggests that radical changes are needed to drive large-scale retrofitting, and that new and innovative models of financing can create new opportunities. The purpose of this paper is to offer insights into the terminology of retrofit and the changes in UK policy and practice that are needed to scale up activity in the sector. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews and synthesises key published research into commercial property retrofitting in the UK and USA and also draws on policy and practice from the EU and Australia. Findings – The paper provides a definition of “retrofit”, and compares and contrasts this with “refurbishment” and “renovation” in an international context. The paper summarises key findings from recent research and suggests that there are a number of policy and practice measures which need to be implemented in the UK for commercial retrofitting to succeed at scale. These include improved funding vehicles for retrofit; better transparency in actual energy performance; and consistency in measurement, verification and assessment standards. Practical implications – Policy and practice in the UK needs to change if large-scale commercial property retrofit is to be rolled out successfully. This requires mandatory legislation underpinned by incentives and penalties for non-compliance. Originality/value – This paper synthesises recent research to provide a set of policy and practice recommendations which draw on international experience, and can assist on implementation in the UK.

Diversity for resilience : multi-scale application of agro-ecology

The integration of ecological principles into agricultural systems presents major opportunities for spreading risk at the crop and farm scale. This paper presents mechanisms by which diversity at several scales within the farming system can increase the stability of production. Diversity of above- and below-ground biota, but also genetic and phenotypic diversity within crops, has an essential role in safeguarding farm production. Novel mixtures of legume-grass leys have been shown to potentially provide significant benefits for pollinator and decomposer ecosystem services but to realise the greatest improvements carefully tailored farm management is needed such as mowing or grazing time, and the type and depth of cutivation. Complex farmland landscapes such as agroforestry systems have the potential to support pollinator abundance and diversity and spread risk across production enterprises. At the crop level, early results indicate that the vulnerability of pollen development, flowering and early grain set to abiotic stress can be ameliorated by managing flowering time through genotypic selection, and through the buffering effects of pollinators. Finally, the risk of sub-optimal quality in cereals can be mitigated through integration of near isogenic lines selected to escape specific abiotic stress events. We conclude that genotypic, phenotypic and community diversity can all be increased at multiple scales to enhance resilience in agricultural systems.

Reflexive stasis, scale reversal and the myth of modern cinema

This chapter looks at three films whose Portuguese urban settings offer a privileged ground for the re-evaluation of the classical-modern-postmodern categorisation with regard to cinema. They are The State of Things (Wim Wenders, 1982), Foreign Land (Walter Salles and Daniela Thomas, 1995) and Mysteries of Lisbon (Raúl Ruiz, 2010). In them, the city is the place where characters lose their bearings, names, identities, and where vicious circles, mirrors, replicas and mise-en-abyme bring the vertiginous movement that had characterised the modernist city of 1920s cinema to a halt. Curiously, too, it is the place where so-called postmodern aesthetics finally finds an ideal home in self-ironical tales that expose the film medium’s narrative shortcomings. Intermedial devices, whether Polaroid stills or a cardboard cut-out theatre, are then resorted to in order to turn a larger-than-life reality into framed, manageable narrative miniatures. The scaled-down real, however, turns out to be a disappointing simulacrum, a memory ersatz that unveils the illusory character of cosmopolitan teleology. In my approach, I start by examining the intertwined and transnational genesis of these films that resulted in three correlated visions of the end of history and of storytelling, typical of postmodern aesthetics. I move on to consider intermedia miniaturism as an attempt to stop time within movement, an equation that inevitably brings to mind the Deleuzian movement-time binary, which I revisit in an attempt to disentangle it from the classical-modern opposition. I conclude by proposing reflexive stasis and scale reversal as the common denominator across all modern projects, hence, perhaps, a more advantageous model than modernity to signify artistic and political values.

The CURE scale: a multidimensional measure of service recovery strategy

Purpose – This paper aims to address the gaps in service recovery strategy assessment. An effective service recovery strategy that prevents customer defection after a service failure is a powerful managerial instrument. The literature to date does not present a comprehensive assessment of service recovery strategy. It also lacks a clear picture of the service recovery actions at managers’ disposal in case of failure and the effectiveness of individual strategies on customer outcomes. Design/methodology/approach – Based on service recovery theory, this paper proposes a formative index of service recovery strategy and empirically validates this measure using partial least-squares path modelling with survey data from 437 complainants in the telecommunications industry in Egypt. Findings – The CURE scale (CUstomer REcovery scale) presents evidence of reliability as well as convergent, discriminant and nomological validity. Findings also reveal that problem-solving, speed of response, effort, facilitation and apology are the actions that have an impact on the customer’s satisfaction with service recovery. Practical implications – This new formative index is of potential value in investigating links between strategy and customer evaluations of service by helping managers identify which actions contribute most to changes in the overall service recovery strategy as well as satisfaction with service recovery. Ultimately, the CURE scale facilitates the long-term planning of effective complaint management. Originality/value – This is the first study in the service marketing literature to propose a comprehensive assessment of service recovery strategy and clearly identify the service recovery actions that contribute most to changes in the overall service recovery strategy.

Bringing export performance metrics into Annual Reports: the APEV scale and the PERFEX scorecard

Annual company reports rarely distinguish between domestic and export market performance and even more rarely provide information about annual indicators of a specific export venture's performance. In this study, the authors develop and test a new measure for assessing the annual performance of an export venture (the APEV scale). The new measure comprises five dimensions: (1) annual export venture financial performance, (2) annual export venture strategic performance, (3) annual export venture achievement, (4) contribution of the export venture to annual exporting operations, and (5) satisfaction with annual export venture overall performance. The authors use the APEV scale to generate a scorecard of performance in exporting (the PERFEX scorecard) to assess export performance at the corporate level while comparatively evaluating all export ventures of the firm. Both the scale and the scorecard could help disclose export venture performance and could be useful instruments for annual planning, management, monitoring, and improvement of exporting programs.

The RELQUAL scale: a measure of relationship quality in export market ventures

In this article, the authors develop a new measurement scale (the RELQUAL scale) to assess the degree of relationship quality between the exporting firm and the importer. Relationship quality is presented as a high-order concept. Findings reveal that a better quality of the relationship results in a greater (1) amount of information sharing, (2) communication quality, (3) long-term orientation, as well as (4) satisfaction with the relationship. The four multi-item scales show strong evidence of reliability as well as convergent, discriminant and nomological validity in a sample of British exporters. Findings also reveal that relationship quality is positively and significantly associated with export performance. Suggestions for applying the measure in future research are presented.

The STEP scale: a measure of short-term export performance improvement

This article is a direct response to a recent observation in the literature that managers appear to be short-term oriented in their assessment of the performance of an export venture (Madsen 1998). On the basis of a cross-national survey of exporting firms, the authors present a three-dimensional scale for assessing managerial judgment of short-term export performance (i.e., the STEP scale). The three dimensions are (1) satisfaction with short-term performance improvement, (2) short-term exporting intensity improvement, and (3) expected short-term performance improvement. The scale presents evidence of reliability as well as convergent, discriminant, and nomological validity, and it reveals factorial similarity and factorial equivalence across both samples. The authors outline managerial and public policy implications that stem from the scale and identify avenues for further export marketing research.

Managing artisanal and small-scale mining in forest areas: perspectives from a poststructural political ecology

Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) is an activity intimately associated with social deprivation and environmental degradation, including deforestation. This paper examines ASM and deforestation using a broadly poststructural political ecology framework. Hegemonic discourses are shown to consistently influence policy direction, particularly in emerging approaches such as Corporate Social Responsibility and the Forest Stewardship Council. A review of alternative discourses reveals that the poststructural method is useful for critiquing the international policy arena but does not inform new approaches. Synthesis of the analysis leads to conclusions that echo a growing body of literature advocating for policies to become increasingly sensitive to local contexts, synergistic between actors at difference scales, and to be integrated across sectors.