Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981-2010) to the future (2070-2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.

The viability of sustained growth by India’s MNEs: India’s dual economy and constraints from location assets

This paper considers the longer-term viability of the internationalization and success of Indian multinational enterprises (MNEs). We apply the ‘dual economy’ concept (Lewis, Manch Sch 22(2):139–191, 1954) to reconcile the contradictions of the typical emerging economy, where a ‘modern’ knowledge-intensive economy exists alongside a ‘traditional’ resource-intensive economy. Each type of economy generates firms with different types of ownership advantages, and hence different types of MNEs and internationalisation patterns. We also highlight the vulnerabilities of a growth-by-acquisitions approach. The potential for Indian MNEs to grow requires an understanding of India’s dual economy and the constraints from the home country’s location advantages, particularly those in its knowledge infrastructure.

The Environmental Data Abstraction Library (EDAL): a modular approach to processing and visualising large environmental data

The Environmental Data Abstraction Library provides a modular data management library for bringing new and diverse datatypes together for visualisation within numerous software packages, including the ncWMS viewing service, which already has very wide international uptake. The structure of EDAL is presented along with examples of its use to compare satellite, model and in situ data types within the same visualisation framework. We emphasize the value of this capability for cross calibration of datasets and evaluation of model products against observations, including preparation for data assimilation.

Effect of seasonal variation on some physical properties and heat stability of milk subjected to ultra-high temperature and in-container sterilisation

Heat stability was evaluated in bulk raw milk, collected throughout the year and subjected to ultra-high temperature (UHT) or in-container sterilisation, with and without added calcium chloride (2 mM), disodium hydrogen phosphate (DSHP, 10 mM) and trisodium citrate (TSC, 10 mM). More sediment was observed following in-container sterilisation (0.24%) compared with UHT (0.19%). Adding CaCl2 made the milk more unstable to UHT than to in-container sterilisation, while adding DSHP and TSC made the milk more unstable during in-container sterilisation than to UHT processing, although TSC addition increased the sediment formed by UHT processing. Better heat stability was observed in autumn and winter than in spring and summer following UHT. However, following in-container sterilisation, samples with added stabilising salts showed significantly improved heat stability in autumn, whereas with added CaCl2, the best heat stability was observed in spring. No correlation was found between urea and heat stability. DSHP and TSC made the milk more unstable during in-container sterilisation than to UHT processing, although TSC addition increased the sediment formed by UHT processing. Better heat stability was observed in autumn and winter than in spring and summer following UHT. However, following in-container sterilisation, samples with added stabilising salts showed significantly improved heat stability in autumn, whereas with added CaCl2, the best heat stability was observed in spring. No correlation was found between urea and heat stability.

Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to ∼11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from ∼19,000 to ∼17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to ∼13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to ∼3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load

Enantiomeric conformation controls rate and yield of photoinduced electron transfer in DNA sensitized by Ru(II) Dipyridophenazine complexes

Photosensitized oxidation of guanine is an important route to DNA damage. Ruthenium polypyridyls are very useful photosensitizers as their reactivity and DNA-binding properties are readily tunable. Here we show a strong difference in the reactivity of the two enantiomers of [Ru(TAP)2(dppz)]2+, by using time-resolved visible and IR spectroscopy. This reveals that the photosensitized one-electron oxidation of guanine in three oligonucleotide sequences proceeds with similar rates and yields for bound delta-[Ru(TAP)2(dppz)]2+, whereas those for the lambda enantiomer are very sensitive to base sequence. It is proposed that these differences are due to preferences of each enantiomer for different binding sites in the duplex.

Endophytic bacterial community composition in wheat (Triticum aestivum) is determined by plant tissue type, developmental stage and soil nutrient availability

Aims: To understand effects of tissue type, growth stage and soil fertilisers on bacterial endophyte communities of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum cv. Hereward). Methods: Endophytes were isolated from wheat grown under six fertiliser conditions in the long term Broadbalk Experiment at Rothamsted Research, UK. Samples were taken in May and July from root and leaf tissues. Results: Root and leaf communities differed in abundance and composition of endophytes. Endophytes were most abundant in roots and the Proteobacteria were most prevalent. In contrast, Firmicutes and Actinobacteria, the Gram positive phyla, were most prevalent in the leaves. Both fertiliser treatment and sample time influenced abundance and relative proportions of each phylum and genus in the endosphere. A higher density of endophytes was found in the Nil input treatment plants. Conclusions: Robust isolation techniques and stringent controls are critical for accurate recovery of endophytes. The plant tissue type, plant growth stage, and soil fertiliser treatment all contribute to the composition of the endophytic bacterial community in wheat. These results should help facilitate targeted development of endophytes for beneficial applications in agriculture.

Efficient masking of corrosion and fission products such as Ni(II) and Pd(II) in the presence of the minor actinide Am(III) using hydrophilic anionic or cationic bis-triazines

Water soluble anionic and cationic bis-triazine ligands are able to suppress (mask) the extraction of corrosion and fission products such as Ni(II) and Pd(II) that are found in PUREX raffinates. Thus it is possible to separate these elements from the minor actinide Am(III). Although some masking agents have previously been developed that retard the extraction of Pd(II), this is the first time a masking agent has been developed for Ni(II).

Neonatal environment exerts a sustained influence on the development of the intestinal microbiota and metabolic phenotype

The postnatal environment, including factors such as weaning and acquisition of the gut microbiota, has been causally linked to the development of later immunological diseases such as allergy and autoimmunity, and has also been associated with a predisposition to metabolic disorders. We show that the very early-life environment influences the development of both the gut microbiota and host metabolic phenotype in a porcine model of human infants. Farmpiglets were nursed by their mothers for 1 day, before removal to highly controlled, individual isolators where they received formula milk until weaning at 21 days. The experiment was repeated, to create two batches, which differed only in minor environmental fluctuations during the first day. At day 1 after birth, metabolic profiling of serum by 1H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy demonstrated significant, systemic, inter-batch variation which persisted until weaning. However, the urinary metabolic profiles demonstrated that significant inter-batch effects on 3-hydroxyisovalerate, trimethylamine-N-oxide and mannitol persisted beyond weaning to at least 35 days. Batch effects were linked to significant differences in the composition of colonic microbiota at 35 days, determined by 16 S pyrosequencing. Different weaning diets modulated both the microbiota and metabolic phenotype independently of the persistent batch effects. We demonstrate that the environment during the first day of life influences development of the microbiota and metabolic phenotype and thus should be taken into account when interrogating experimental outcomes. In addition, we suggest that intervention at this early time could provide ‘metabolic rescue’ for at-risk infants who have undergone aberrant patterns of initial intestinal colonisation.

Recognition, assessment and treatment of social anxiety disorder: summary of NICE guidance

Social anxiety disorder is one of the most persistent and common of the anxiety disorders, with lifetime prevalence rates in Europe of 6.7% (range 3.9-13.7%).1 It often coexists with depression, substance use disorder, generalised anxiety disorder, panic disorder, and post-traumatic stress disorder.2 It can severely impair a person’s daily functioning by impeding the formation of relationships, reducing quality of life, and negatively affecting performance at work or school. Despite this, and the fact that effective treatments exist, only about half of people with this condition seek treatment, many after waiting 10-15 years.3 Although about 40% of those who develop the condition in childhood or adolescence recover before adulthood,4 for many the disorder persists into adulthood, with the chance of spontaneous recovery then limited compared with other mental health problems. This article summarises the most recent recommendations from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) on recognising, assessing, and treating social anxiety disorder in children, young people, and adults.5