Tobit estiamtion with unknown point of censoring with an application to milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Data augmentation is a powerful technique for estimating models with latent or missing data, but applications in agricultural economics have thus far been few. This paper showcases the technique in an application to data on milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. There, a key impediment to economic development is an apparently low rate of market participation. Consequently, economic interest centers on the “locations” of nonparticipants in relation to the market and their “reservation values” across covariates. These quantities are of policy interest because they provide measures of the additional inputs necessary in order for nonparticipants to enter the market. One quantity of primary interest is the minimum amount of surplus milk (the “minimum efficient scale of operations”) that the household must acquire before market participation becomes feasible. We estimate this quantity through routine application of data augmentation and Gibbs sampling applied to a random-censored Tobit regression. Incorporating random censoring affects markedly the marketable-surplus requirements of the household, but only slightly the covariates requirements estimates and, generally, leads to more plausible policy estimates than the estimates obtained from the zero-censored formulation

Immunomodulatory effects of a probiotic drink containing Lactobacillus casei Shirota in healthy older volunteers

PURPOSE: There is growing evidence that probiotics confer health benefits to the host by modulating immune function, especially in older people, where immunosenescence is a feature even of healthy ageing. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of a probiotic drink containing Lactobacillus casei Shirota (LcS) on immune function in a healthy non-immunocompromised older population. METHODS: Thirty healthy old volunteers were recruited into a randomized placebo-controlled, single-blind crossover study. The volunteers were supplemented with the probiotic drink containing 1.3 × 10(10) CFU LcS or skimmed milk per day for 4 weeks, followed by 4 weeks of washout and were crossed over to the other treatment. Peripheral blood and saliva samples were collected at baseline and end of each treatment. RESULTS: Probiotic consumption was associated with a significant increase in natural killer (NK) cell activity relative to baseline and a significant decrease in the mean fluorescence intensity of CD25 expression in the resting T cells compared with placebo. Additionally, there was a trend towards an increased ratio of IL-10 to IL-12 relative to baseline after LcS intake. CONCLUSIONS: Consumption of a probiotic drink containing LcS improved NK cell activity and tended to produce a more anti-inflammatory cytokine profile in an older population.

Proportions of A1, A2, B and C β-casein protein variants in retail milk in the UK

The A1 variant protein of the β-casein family has been implicated in various disease states although much evidence is weak or contradictory. The primary objective was to measure, for the first time, the proportions of the key β-casein variant proteins in UK retail milk over the course of one year. In total, 55 samples of semi-skimmed milk were purchased from five supermarkets over the course of a year and the proportions of the A1, A2, B and C casein variant proteins were measured, using high resolution HPLC-MS. The results showed that β-casein in UK retail milk comprises approximately 0.58, 0.31, 0.07 and 0.03 A2, A1, B and C protein variants, respectively. The proportion of A2 is higher than some early studies would predict although the reasons for this and any implications for health are unclear

Consumption and social identity: evidence from India

We examine spending on consumption items which have signaling value in social interactions across groups with distinctive social identities in India, where social identities are defined by caste and religious affiliations. Using nationally representative micro data on household consumption expenditures, we find that disadvantaged caste groups such as Other Backward Castes spend 8 percent more on visible consumption than Brahmin and High Caste groups while social groups such as Muslims spend 14 percent less, after controlling for differences in permanent income, household assets and household demographic composition. The differences across social groups are significant and robust and these differences persist within different sub populations. We find that the higher spending of OBC households on visible consumption is diverted from education spending, while Muslim households divert spending from visible consumption and education towards greater food spending. Additionally, we find that these consumption patterns can be partly explained as a result of the status signaling nature of the consumption items. We also discuss alternative sources of differences in consumption patterns across groups which stem from religious observance.

Does consumption-wealth ratio signal stock returns? VECM results for Germany

This paper studies the signalling effect of the consumption−wealth ratio (cay) on German stock returns via vector error correction models (VECMs). The effect of cay on U.S. stock returns has been recently confirmed by Lettau and Ludvigson with a two−stage method. In this paper, performance of the VECMs and the two−stage method are compared in both German and U.S. data. It is found that the VECMs are more suitable to study the effect of cay on stock returns than the two−stage method. Using the Conditional−Subset VECM, cay signals real stock returns and excess returns in both data sets significantly. The estimated coefficient on cay for stock returns turns out to be two times greater in U.S. data than in German data. When the two−stage method is used, cay has no significant effect on German stock returns. Besides, it is also found that cay signals German wealth growth and U.S. income growth significantly.

Impact of serving method on the consumption of nutritional supplement drinks: randomised trial in older adults with cognitive impairment

Aim: To analyse the influence of serving method on compliance and consumption of nutritional supplement drinks in older adults with cognitive impairment. Background: Oral nutritional supplement drinks have positive benefits on increasing nutritional status within undernourished elderly people leading to weight gain. However, consumption of these drinks is low and therefore limits their effectiveness. Design: This study was a non blind randomised control trial where participants either consumed nutritional supplement drinks in a glass/beaker or consumed them through a straw inserted directly into the container. Method: Participants with longstanding cognitive impairment were recruited from nursing homes (n=31) and hospitals (n=14). Participants were randomised to serving method. Nursing and care staff were instructed to give the supplement drinks three times per day on alternate days over a week by the allocated serving method. The researcher weighed the amount of supplement drink remaining after consumption. Data were collected over 12 months in 2011-2012. Results: 45 people participated in this study mean age 86.7 (SD 7.5 ) years. After randomisation there was no significant difference between the baseline characteristics of the two groups. Participants randomised to consume nutritional drinks from a glass / beaker drank significantly more than those who consumed them via a straw inserted directly into the container. However, supplements allocated to be given in a glass/beaker were more frequently omitted. Conclusion: Nutritional supplement drinks should be given to people with dementia who are able to feed themselves in a glass or a beaker if staffing resources allow (NIHR CSP ref 31101).