Orography in a contour dynamics model of large-scale atmospheric flow

The influence of orography on the structure of stationary planetary Rossby waves is studied in the context of a contour dynamics model of the large-scale atmospheric flow. Orography of infinitesimal and finite amplitude is studied using analytical and numerical techniques. Three different types of orography are considered: idealized orography in the form of a global wave, idealized orography in the form of a local table mountain, and the earth's orography. The study confirms the importance of resonances, both in the infinitesimal orography and in the finite orography cases. With finite orography the stationary waves organize themselves into a one-dimensional set of solutions, which due to the resonances, is piecewise connected. It is pointed out that these stationary waves could be relevant for atmospheric regimes.

A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing

The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model.

Forecast calibration and combination: a simple Bayesian approach for ENSO

This study presents a new simple approach for combining empirical with raw (i.e., not bias corrected) coupled model ensemble forecasts in order to make more skillful interval forecasts of ENSO. A Bayesian normal model has been used to combine empirical and raw coupled model December SST Niño-3.4 index forecasts started at the end of the preceding July (5-month lead time). The empirical forecasts were obtained by linear regression between December and the preceding July Niño-3.4 index values over the period 1950–2001. Coupled model ensemble forecasts for the period 1987–99 were provided by ECMWF, as part of the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) project. Empirical and raw coupled model ensemble forecasts alone have similar mean absolute error forecast skill score, compared to climatological forecasts, of around 50% over the period 1987–99. The combined forecast gives an increased skill score of 74% and provides a well-calibrated and reliable estimate of forecast uncertainty.

The impact of sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei on the British fox Vulpes vulpes population

1. Disease epizootics can significantly influence host population dynamics and the structure and functioning of ecological communities. Sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei has dramatically reduced red fox populations Vulpes vulpes in several countries, including Britain, although impacts on demographic processes are poorly understood. We review the literature on the impact of mange on red fox populations, assess its current distribution in Britain through a questionnaire survey and present new data on resultant demographic changes in foxes in Bristol, UK. 2. A mange epizootic in Sweden spread across the entire country in < 10 years resulting in a decline in fox density of up to 95%; density remained lowered for 15–20 years. In Spain, mange has been enzootic for > 75 years and is widely distributed; mange presence was negatively correlated with habitat quality. 3. Localized outbreaks have occurred sporadically in Britain during the last 100 years. The most recent large-scale outbreak arose in the 1990s, although mange has been present in south London and surrounding environs since the 1940s. The questionnaire survey indicated that mange was broadly distributed across Britain, but areas of perceived high prevalence (> 50% affected) were mainly in central and southern England. Habitat type did not significantly affect the presence/absence of mange or perceived prevalence rates. Subjective assessments suggested that populations take 15–20 years to recover. 4. Mange appeared in Bristol's foxes in 1994. During the epizootic phase (1994–95), mange spread through the city at a rate of 0.6–0.9 km/month, with a rise in infection in domestic dogs Canis familiaris c. 1–2 months later. Juvenile and adult fox mortality increased and the proportion of females that reproduced declined but litter size was unaffected. Population density declined by > 95%. 5. In the enzootic phase (1996–present), mange was the most significant mortality factor. Juvenile mortality was significantly higher than in the pre-mange period, and the number of juveniles classified as dispersers declined. Mange infection reduced the reproductive potential of males and females: females with advanced mange did not breed; severely infected males failed to undergo spermatogenesis. In 2004, Bristol fox population density was only 15% of that in 1994.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Chromosomal mapping of ANTP class homeobox genes in amphioxus: piecing together ancestral genomes

Homeobox genes encode DNA-binding proteins, many of which are implicated in the control of embryonic development. Evolutionarily, most homeobox genes fall into two related clades: the ANTP and the PRD classes. Some genes in ANTP class, notably Hox, ParaHox, and NK genes, have an intriguing arrangement into physical clusters. To investigate the evolutionary history of these gene clusters, we examined homeobox gene chromosomal locations in the cephalochordate amphioxus, Branchiostoma floridae. We deduce that 22 amphioxus ANTP class homeobox genes localize in just three chromosomes. One contains the Hox cluster plus AmphiEn, AmphiMnx, and AmphiDll. The ParaHox cluster resides in another chromosome, whereas a third chromosome contains the NK type homeobox genes, including AmphiMsx and ArnphiTlx. By comparative analysis we infer that clustering of ANTP class homeobox genes evolved just once, during a series of extensive cis-duplication events of genes early in animal evolution. A trans-duplication event occurred later to yield the Hox and ParaHox gene clusters on different chromosomes. The results obtained have implications for understanding the origin of homeobox gene clustering, the diversification of the ANTP class of homeobox genes, and the evolution of animal genomes.