Evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications: an approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures

Many different performance measures have been developed to evaluate field predictions in meteorology. However, a researcher or practitioner encountering a new or unfamiliar measure may have difficulty in interpreting its results, which may lead to them avoiding new measures and relying on those that are familiar. In the context of evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications, this article aims to promote the use of a range of performance measures. Some of the types of performance measures that are introduced in order to demonstrate a six-step approach to tackle a new measure. Using the example of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble precipitation predictions for the Danube floods of July and August 2002, to show how to use new performance measures with this approach and the way to choose between different performance measures based on their suitability for the task at hand is shown. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

The repatriation of 1973 and the re-making of modern south Asia

In the aftermath of the 1971 war, nearly 250,000 people found themselves stranded in various parts of the subcontinent. These 'trapped minorities' became hostages in a complex negotiation process that highlighted how questions of citizenship and belonging remained unresolved in post-Partition South Asia. By studying three groups - the non-Bengalis, the Bengalis and the prisoners of war in a comparative perspective, this paper re-visits the question of who was welcome within certain borders and on what terms. It argues that these decisions depended not just on the state's policies towards 'outsiders' but also upon its own relationship with its minority communities.

Enterprise pedagogy in music: an exploration of multiple pedagogies

This article investigates the nature of enterprise pedagogy in music. It presents the results of a research project that applied the practices of enterprise learning developed in the post-compulsory music curriculum in England to the teaching of the National Curriculum for music for 11-to-14-year-olds. In doing so, the article explores the nature of enterprise learning and the nature of pedagogy, in order to consider whether enterprise pedagogy offers an effective way to teach the National Curriculum. Enterprise pedagogy was found to have a positive effect on the motivation of students and on the potential to match learning to the needs of students of different abilities. Crucially, it was found that, to be effective, not only did the teacher’s practice need to be congruent with the beliefs and theories on which it rests, but that the students also needed to share in these underlying assumptions through their learning. The study has implications for the way in which teachers work multiple pedagogies in the process of developing their pedagogical identity.

Brussels French une fois: Transfer-induced innovation or system-internal development?

In language contact studies, specific features of the contact languages are often seen to be the result of transfer (interference), but it remains difficult to disentangle the role of intra-systemic and inter-systemic factors. We propose to unravel these factors in the analysis of a feature of Brussels French which many researchers attribute to transfer from (Brussels) Dutch: the adverbial use of une fois. We compare the use of this particle in Brussels French with its occurrence in corpora of other varieties of French, including several that have not been influenced by a Germanic substrate or adstrate. A detailed analysis of the frequency of occurrence, the functions and the distribution of the particle over different syntactic positions shows that some uses of une fois can be traced back to sixteenth-century French, but that there is also ample evidence for overt and covert transfer (Mougeon and Beniak, 1991) from Brussels Dutch.

Borrowing and shift-induced interference: contrasting patterns in French-Germanic contact in Brussels and Strasbourg

The main aim of the present article is to test hypotheses derived from the model for contact- induced language change as formulated in Thomason and Kaufman (1988 et seq.). As the model correctly predicts the asymmetries between the mutual influences of the Germanic and the Romance varieties in Brussels and Strasbourg it is a very powerful tool for describing the contact patterns in these cities. The analysis shows that the contact patterns are very similar, both from a quantitative and from a qualitative point of view, despite important differences in the sociolinguistic situation of both cities. The striking similarities in the outcome of language contact seem to find a plausible explanation in the fact that the language contact situations in both cities are similar from a typological point of view: in each city a variety of French is in contact with a Germanic variety (Alsatian and Brussels Dutch). Thus, the claim of the present article is that the structure of the languages plays a more prominent role in the outcome of language contact than the sociolinguistic history of the speakers.

The role of transfer in language variation and change: Evidence from contact varieties of French

In this Special Issue, the focus is on contact-induced language variation and change in situations of societal bilingualism that involve long-term contact between French and another language. As is well known, when two or more languages are spoken by groups of speakers in the same geographical area, over time, features from one language can be transferred to the other language, especially when the languages in question are unequal in terms of prestige, institutional support and demographic factors. The process that leads to the adoption of such features in the contact languages is generally known as INTERFERENCE or TRANSFER, and these terms are also used to describe the features in question (i.e. the end product of the process of transfer). In this issue we prefer to use the term TRANSFER over the use of the notion INTERFERENCE, as the former has fewer negative connotations than the latter.

The role of fimbriae and flagella in the colonization, invasion and persistence of Escherichia coli O78 : K80 in the day-old-chick model

To understand the role of flagella and fimbriae of Escherichia coli O78:K80 in avian colibacillosis, day-old chicks were dosed orally with defined afimbriate and or aflagellate mutants and colonization, invasion and persistence compared with that of the wild-type. In an invasion model, chicks were dosed with 1 x 10(5) c.f.u. of a single strain and mutants defective for type 1 fimbriae, curli fimbriae or flagella colonized livers by 24 h although the numbers of bacteria present were significantly less than the wild-type, Mutants colonized between 50 and 75 % of spleens whereas the wild-type colonized 100 % of spleens. Additionally, the numbers of mutant bacteria in colonized spleens were significantly less than the wild-type. Surprisingly, mutants defective for the elaboration of more than one appendage were no more attenuated than single mutants. In a persistence model, chicks were dosed with 1 x 10(2) c.f.u. of a single strain and mutants defective for type 1 or curli or flagella or any combination thereof persisted as assessed by cloacal swabbing for 5 weeks of the experiment less well than the wild-type. In an additional persistence model, chicks were dosed with 5 x 10(2) c.f.u. of each of wild-type and one mutant together. All mutants were significantly less persistent than the wild-type (P < 0.001) and one mutant which lacked type 1, curli and flagella, was eliminated within 2 weeks. Analysis of the trends of elimination indicated that flagella contributed to persistence more than curli, which contributed more than type 1 fimbriae. Here was evidence for a major role in colonization, invasion and persistence played by type 1, curli and flagella.

Prevalence of Leptospira species among farmed and domestic animals in Greece

A total of 1527 serum samples from pigs, goats, sheep, cattle and dogs in Greece were examined by the microscopic agglutination test and 11.8 per cent of them had antibodies against one or more Leptospira serovars at titres of 1/100 or more. The predominant serovar affecting farm animal species was Bratislava, and Copenhageni was common among dogs and the second most important serovar when all animals were considered together. Another prevalent serovar was Australis, but antibodies to Pomona were detected only in goats and cattle.

Elevated CO2 enrichment induces a differential biomass response in a mixed species temperate forest plantation

• In a free-air CO2 enrichment study (BangorFACE) Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula and Fagus sylvatica were planted in areas of one, two and three species mixtures (n=4). The trees were exposed to ambient or elevated CO2 (580 µmol mol-1) for four years, and aboveground growth characteristics measured. • In monoculture, the mean effect of CO2 enrichment on aboveground woody biomass was +29, +22 and +16% for A. glutinosa, F. sylvatica, and B. pendula respectively. When the same species were grown in polyculture, the response to CO2 switched to +10, +7 and 0%, for A. glutinosa, B. pendula, and F. sylvatica respectively. • In ambient atmosphere our species grown in polyculture increased aboveground woody biomass from 12.9 ± 1.4 kg m-2 to 18.9 ± 1.0 kg m-2, whereas in an elevated CO2 atmosphere aboveground woody biomass increased from 15.2 ± 0.6 kg m-2 to 20.2 ± 0.6 kg m-2. The overyielding effect of polyculture was smaller (+7%) in elevated CO2 than in an ambient atmosphere (+18%). • Our results show that the aboveground response to elevated CO2 is significantly affected by intra- and inter-specific competition, and that elevated CO2 response may be reduced in forest communities comprised of tree species with contrasting functional traits.

Scaling up classification rule induction through parallel processing

The fast increase in the size and number of databases demands data mining approaches that are scalable to large amounts of data. This has led to the exploration of parallel computing technologies in order to perform data mining tasks concurrently using several processors. Parallelization seems to be a natural and cost-effective way to scale up data mining technologies. One of the most important of these data mining technologies is the classification of newly recorded data. This paper surveys advances in parallelization in the field of classification rule induction.

Endothelin-converting enzyme-1 regulates trafficking and signalling of the neurokinin 1 receptor in endosomes of myenteric neurones

Neuropeptide signalling at the plasma membrane is terminated by neuropeptide degradation by cell-surface peptidases, and by beta-arrestin-dependent receptor desensitization and endocytosis. However, receptors continue to signal from endosomes by beta-arrestin-dependent processes, and endosomal sorting mediates recycling and resensitization of plasma membrane signalling. The mechanisms that control signalling and trafficking of receptors in endosomes are poorly defined. We report a major role for endothelin-converting enzyme-1 (ECE-1) in controlling substance P (SP) and the neurokinin 1 receptor (NK(1)R) in endosomes of myenteric neurones. ECE-1 mRNA and protein were expressed by myenteric neurones of rat and mouse intestine. SP (10 nM, 10 min) induced interaction of NK(1)R and beta-arrestin at the plasma membrane, and the SP-NK(1)R-beta-arrestin signalosome complex trafficked by a dynamin-mediated mechanism to ECE-1-containing early endosomes, where ECE-1 can degrade SP. After 120 min, NK(1)R recycled from endosomes to the plasma membrane. ECE-1 inhibitors (SM-19712, PD-069185) and the vacuolar H(+)ATPase inhibitor bafilomycin A(1), which prevent endosomal SP degradation, suppressed NK(1)R recycling by >50%. Preincubation of neurones with SP (10 nM, 5 min) desensitized Ca(2+) transients to a second SP challenge after 10 min, and SP signals resensitized after 60 min. SM-19712 inhibited NK(1)R resensitization by >90%. ECE-1 inhibitors also caused sustained SP-induced activation of extracellular signal-regulated kinases, consistent with stabilization of the SP-NK(1)R-beta-arrestin signalosome. By degrading SP and destabilizing endosomal signalosomes, ECE-1 has a dual role in controlling endocytic signalling and trafficking of the NK(1)R: promoting resensitization of G protein-mediated plasma membrane signalling, and terminating beta-arrestin-mediated endosomal signalling.

‘Museums, Identity, and Warring Historians: Observations on History in Germany’

A review essay on debates in Germany about the creation of museums of German history

Forgotten children: work-family reconciliation in the EU

At the core of this article is a discussion of how, why and with what implications, considerations of children’s needs are missing from the EU’s work-family reconciliation framework. Part I demonstrates how the EU has failed to properly identify, let alone acknowledge or promote, children’s interests in relation to work-family reconciliation. An examination of relevant legislation and case law shows how children are ‘missing’ from this policy area, which has huge implications for their day to day lives. Part II then considers the reasons behind, and consequences of, this reluctance to engage with children’s interests in reconciliation laws and shows how children’s well-being could be better incorporated into relevant policies and within the jurisprudence of the Court of Justice. This section highlights, for example, how the EU has been willing and able to promote children’s interests in other legal fields and suggests that changes in the Treaty, post Lisbon, offer a means to improve the current approach.

‘Keystone in the Division of Europe: Germany in the Cold War’

Review essay on literature on the role of Germany in the Cold War

Describing seasonal variability in the distribution of daily effective temperatures for 1985-2009 compared to 1904-1984 for De Bilt, Holland

This paper proposes a method for describing the distribution of observed temperatures on any day of the year such that the distribution and summary statistics of interest derived from the distribution vary smoothly through the year. The method removes the noise inherent in calculating summary statistics directly from the data thus easing comparisons of distributions and summary statistics between different periods. The method is demonstrated using daily effective temperatures (DET) derived from observations of temperature and wind speed at De Bilt, Holland. Distributions and summary statistics are obtained from 1985 to 2009 and compared to the period 1904–1984. A two-stage process first obtains parameters of a theoretical probability distribution, in this case the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, which describes the distribution of DET on any day of the year. Second, linear models describe seasonal variation in the parameters. Model predictions provide parameters of the GEV distribution, and therefore summary statistics, that vary smoothly through the year. There is evidence of an increasing mean temperature, a decrease in the variability in temperatures mainly in the winter and more positive skew, more warm days, in the summer. In the winter, the 2% point, the value below which 2% of observations are expected to fall, has risen by 1.2 °C, in the summer the 98% point has risen by 0.8 °C. Medians have risen by 1.1 and 0.9 °C in winter and summer, respectively. The method can be used to describe distributions of future climate projections and other climate variables. Further extensions to the methodology are suggested.