Hurricanes and climate: the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased versus experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased, with the carbon dioxide experiments more likely to demonstrate the decrease in tropical cyclone numbers previously shown to be a common response of climate models in a warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.

The importance of vertical velocity variability for estimates of the indirect aerosol effects

The activation of aerosols to form cloud droplets is dependent upon vertical velocities whose local variability is not typically resolved at the GCM grid scale. Consequently, it is necessary to represent the subgrid-scale variability of vertical velocity in the calculation of cloud droplet number concentration. This study uses the UK Chemistry and Aerosols community model (UKCA) within the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM3), coupled for the first time to an explicit aerosol activation parameterisation, and hence known as UKCA-Activate. We explore the range of uncertainty in estimates of the indirect aerosol effects attributable to the choice of parameterisation of the subgrid-scale variability of vertical velocity in HadGEM-UKCA. Results of simulations demonstrate that the use of a characteristic vertical velocity cannot replicate results derived with a distribution of vertical velocities, and is to be discouraged in GCMs. This study focuses on the effect of the variance (σw2) of a Gaussian pdf (probability density function) of vertical velocity. Fixed values of σw (spanning the range measured in situ by nine flight campaigns found in the literature) and a configuration in which σw depends on turbulent kinetic energy are tested. Results from the mid-range fixed σw and TKE-based configurations both compare well with observed vertical velocity distributions and cloud droplet number concentrations. The radiative flux perturbation due to the total effects of anthropogenic aerosol is estimated at −1.9 W m−2 with σw = 0.1 m s−1, −2.1 W m−2 with σw derived from TKE, −2.25 W m−2 with σw = 0.4 m s−1, and −2.3 W m−2 with σw = 0.7 m s−1. The breadth of this range is 0.4 W m−2, which is comparable to a substantial fraction of the total diversity of current aerosol forcing estimates. Reducing the uncertainty in the parameterisation of σw would therefore be an important step towards reducing the uncertainty in estimates of the indirect aerosol effects. Detailed examination of regional radiative flux perturbations reveals that aerosol microphysics can be responsible for some climate-relevant radiative effects, highlighting the importance of including microphysical aerosol processes in GCMs.

Temporal and spatial variability of auroral forms in the 10–14 MLT sector: Relationship to plasma convection and solar wind-magnetosphere coupling

Ground-based observations of dayside auroral forms and magnetic perturbations in the arctic sectors of Svalbard and Greenland, in combination with the high-resolution measurements of ionospheric ion drift and temperature by the EISCAT radar, are used to study temporal/spatial structures of cusp-type auroral forms in relation to convection. Large-scale patterns of equivalent convection in the dayside polar ionosphere are derived from the magnetic observations in Greenland and Svalbard. This information is used to estimate the ionospheric convection pattern in the vicinity of the cusp/cleft aurora. The reported observations, covering the period 0700-1130 UT, on January 11, 1993, are separated into four intervals according to the observed characteristics of the aurora and ionospheric convection. The morphology and intensity of the aurora are very different in quiet and disturbed intervals. A latitudinally narrow zone of intense and dynamical 630.0 nm emission equatorward of 75 degrees MLAT, was observed during periods of enhanced antisunward convection in the cusp region. This (type 1 cusp aurora) is considered to be the signature of plasma entry via magnetopause reconnection at low magnetopause latitudes, i.e. the low-latitude boundary layer (LLB I,). Another zone of weak 630.0 nm emission (type 2 cusp aurora) was observed to extend up to high latitudes (similar to 79 degrees MLAT) during relatively quiet magnetic conditions, when indications of reverse (sunward) convection was observed in the dayside polar cap. This is postulated to be a signature of merging between a northward directed IMF (B-z > 0) and the geomagnetic field poleward of the cusp. The coexistence of type 1 and 2 auroras was observed under intermediate circumstances. The optical observations from Svalbard and Greenland were also used to determine the temporal and spatial evolution of type 1 auroral forms, i.e. poleward-moving auroral events occurring in the vicinity of a rotational convection reversal in the early post-noon sector. Each event appeared as a local brightening at the equatorward boundary of the pre-existing type 1 cusp aurora, followed by poleward and eastward expansions of luminosity. The auroral events were associated with poleward-moving surges of enhanced ionospheric convection and F-layer ion temperature as observed by the EISCAT radar in Tromso. The EISCAT ion flow data in combination with the auroral observations show strong evidence for plasma flow across the open/closed field line boundary.

Variability of dayside high latitude convection associated with a sequence of auroral transients

10 second resolution ionospheric convection data covering the invariant latitude range from 71° to 76°, obtained by using the EISCAT UHF and VHF radars, are combined with optical data from Ny Ålesund during a sequence of auroral transients in the post-noon sector (∼ 15 MLT). Satellite observations of polar cap convection patterns suggest negative BZ and BY components of the interplanetary magnetic field. Burst-like enhancements of westward (sunward) post-noon convection were accompanied by eastward moving auroral forms at higher latitudes, above the convection reversal boundary. In this case the background convection was weak, whereas the integrated potential drop across the radar field-of-view associated with the westward flow bursts was typically ∼ 20-35 kV. The auroral phenomenon consists of a series of similar events with a mean repetition period of 8 min. A close correlation between the auroral activity and convection enhancements in the cleft ionosphere is demonstrated.

Variability of dayside convection and motions of the cusp/cleft aurora

We present measurements of the ionospheric plasma flow over the range of invariant latitudes 71–76°, observed at 10-second resolution using both the EISCAT radars, with simultaneous observations of the 630 nm cusp/cleft aurora made by a meridian-scanning photometer at Ny Ålesund, Svalbard. A major increase in the trans-auroral voltage from 5 to 40 kV (associated with sunward convection in the early afternoon sector) is found to follow a southward motion of the aurora and coincide with the onset of regular transient auroral breakup events. It is shown that these observations are consistent with recent theoretical work on how ionospheric flows are excited by time-dependent reconnection at the dayside magnetopause.

Variability of the interplanetary medium at 1 A.U. over 24 years: 1963–1986

A survey is presented of hourly averages of observations of the interplanetary medium, made by satellites close to the Earth (i.e. at l a.u.) in the years 1963-1986. This survey therefore covers two complete solar cycles (numbers 20 and 21). The distributions and solar-cycle variations of IMF field strength, B, and its northward component (in GSM coordinates), B(z), and of the solar-wind density, n, speed, v, and dynamic pressure, P, are discussed. Because of their importance to the terrestrial magnetosphere/ionosphere, particular attention is given to B(z) and P. The solar-cycle variation in the magnitude and variability of B(z) previously reported for cycle 20, is also found for cycle 21. However, the solar-wind data show a number of differences between cycles 20 and 21. The average dynamic pressure is found to show a solar-cycle variation and a systematic increase over the period of the survey. The minimum of dynamic pressure at sunspot maximum is mainly due to reduced solar-wind densities in cycle 20, but lower solar-wind speed in cycle 21 is a more significant factor. The distribution of the duration of periods of stable polarity of the IMF B(z) component shows that the magnetosphere could achieve steady state for only a small fraction of the time and there is some evidence for a solar-cycle variation in this fraction. It is also found that the polarity changes in the IMF B(z) fall into two classes: one with an associated change in solar-wind dynamic pressure, the other without such a change. However, in only 20% of cases does the dynamic pressure change exceed 50%.

Short-term variability of solar wind number density, speed and dynamic pressure as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field components: A survey over two solar cycles

The variability of hourly values of solar wind number density, number density variation, speed, speed variation and dynamic pressure with IMF Bz and magnitude |B| has been examined for the period 1965–1986. We wish to draw attention to a strong correlation in number density and number density fluctuation with IMF Bz characterised by a symmetric increasing trend in these quantities away from Bz = 0 nT. The fluctuation level in solar wind speed is found to be relatively independent of Bz. We infer that number density and number density variability dominate in controlling solar wind dynamic pressure and dynamic pressure variability. It is also found that dynamic pressure is correlated with each component of IMF and that there is evidence of morphological differences between the variation with each component. Finally, we examine the variation of number density, speed, dynamic pressure and fluctuation level in number density and speed with IMF magnitude |B|. Again we find that number density variation dominates over solar wind speed in controlling dynamic pressure.

The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency’s New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterised by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterised by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors in conventional facilities will face additional weather-volatility through the monsoonal impact on the length and frequency of production periods (i.e. their load-duration curves).

A regime-dependent parametrization of subgrid-scale cloud water content variability

The subgrid-scale spatial variability in cloud water content can be described by a parameter f called the fractional standard deviation. This is equal to the standard deviation of the cloud water content divided by the mean. This parameter is an input to schemes that calculate the impact of subgrid-scale cloud inhomogeneity on gridbox-mean radiative fluxes and microphysical process rates. A new regime-dependent parametrization of the spatial variability of cloud water content is derived from CloudSat observations of ice clouds. In addition to the dependencies on horizontal and vertical resolution and cloud fraction included in previous parametrizations, the new parametrization includes an explicit dependence on cloud type. The new parametrization is then implemented in the Global Atmosphere 6 (GA6) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model and used to model the effects of subgrid variability of both ice and liquid water content on radiative fluxes and autoconversion and accretion rates in three 20-year atmosphere-only climate simulations. These simulations show the impact of the new regime-dependent parametrization on diagnostic radiation calculations, interactive radiation calculations and both interactive radiation calculations and in a new warm microphysics scheme. The control simulation uses a globally constant f value of 0.75 to model the effect of cloud water content variability on radiative fluxes. The use of the new regime-dependent parametrization in the model results in a global mean which is higher than the control's fixed value and a global distribution of f which is closer to CloudSat observations. When the new regime-dependent parametrization is used in radiative transfer calculations only, the magnitudes of short-wave and long-wave top of atmosphere cloud radiative forcing are reduced, increasing the existing global mean biases in the control. When also applied in a new warm microphysics scheme, the short-wave global mean bias is reduced.

Spatial variability of liquid cloud and rain: observations and microphysical effects

Spatial variability of liquid cloud water content and rainwater content is analysed from three different observational platforms: in situ measurements from research aircraft, land-based remote sensing techniques using radar and lidar, and spaceborne remote sensing from CloudSat. The variance is found to increase with spatial scale, but also depends strongly on the cloud or rain fraction regime, with overcast regions containing less variability than broken cloud fields. This variability is shown to lead to large biases, up to a factor of 4, in both the autoconversion and accretion rates estimated at a model grid scale of ≈40 km by a typical microphysical parametrization using in-cloud mean values. A parametrization for the subgrid variability of liquid cloud and rainwater content is developed, based on the observations, which varies with both the grid scale and cloud or rain fraction, and is applicable for all model grid scales. It is then shown that if this parametrization of the variability is analytically incorporated into the autoconversion and accretion rate calculations, the bias is significantly reduced.

Mid- to late Holocene Indian Ocean monsoon variability recorded in four speleothems from Socotra Island, Yemen

Four stalagmites covering the last 7.0 ka were sampled on Socotra, an island in the northern Indian Ocean to investigate the evolution of the northeast Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) since the mid Holocene. On Socotra, rain is delivered at the start of the southwest IOM in May–June and at the start of the northeast IOM from September to December. The Haggeher Mountains act as a barrier forcing precipitation brought by the northeast winds to fall preferentially on the eastern side of the island, where the studied caves are located. δ18O and δ13C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca signals in the stalagmites reflect precipitation amounts brought by the northeast winds. For stalagmite STM6, this amount effect is amplified by kinetic effects during calcite deposition. Combined interpretation of the stalagmites' signals suggest a weakening of the northeast precipitation between 6.0 and 3.8 ka. After 3.8 ka precipitation intensities remain constant with two superimposed drier periods, between 0 and 0.6 ka and from 2.2 to 3.8 ka. No link can be established with Greenland ice cores and with the summer IOM variability. In contrast to the stable northeast rainy season suggested by the records in this study, speleothem records from western Socotra indicate a wettening of the southwest rainy season on Socotra after 4.4 ka. The local wettening of western Socotra could relate to a more southerly path (more over the Indian Ocean) taken by the southwest winds. Stalagmite STM5, sampled at the fringe between both rain areas displays intermediate δ18O values. After 6.2 ka, similar precipitation changes are seen between eastern Socotra and northern Oman indicating that both regions are affected similarly by the monsoon. Different palaeoclimatologic records from the Arabian Peninsula currently located outside the ITCZ migration pathway display an abrupt drying around 6 ka due to their disconnection from the southwest rain influence. Records that are nowadays still receiving rain by the southwest winds, suggest a more gradual drying reflecting the weakening of the southwest monsoon.

Investigation of the accuracy of historical irradiance products and interannual variability of solar irradiance using Met Office ground data

Met Office station data from 1980 to 2012 has been used to characterise the interannual variability of incident solar irradiance across the UK. The same data are used to evaluate four popular historical irradiance products to determine which are most suitable for use by the UK PV industry for site selection and system design. The study confirmed previous findings that interannual variability is typically 3–6% and weighted average probability of a particular percentage deviation from the mean at an average site in the UK was calculated. This weighted average showed that fewer than 2% of site-years could be expected to fall below 90% of the long-term site mean. The historical irradiance products were compared against Met Office station data from the input years of each product. This investigation has found that all products perform well. No products have a strong spatial trend. Meteonorm 7 is most conservative (MBE = −2.5%), CMSAF is most optimistic (MBE = +3.4%) and an average of all four products performs better than any one individual product (MBE = 0.3%)

Intensified anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific during El Niño decaying summer under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

It has been well documented that there is an anticyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific (WNPAC, hereafter) during El Niño decaying summer. This El Niño-WNPAC relationship is greatly useful for the seasonal prediction of summer climate in the WNP and East Asia. In this study, we investigate the modification of the El Niño-WNPAC relationship induced by a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) in a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the WNPAC during the El Niño decaying summer, as well as the associated precipitation anomaly over the WNP, is intensified under the weakened THC. On the one hand, this intensification is in response to the increased amplitude and frequency of El Niño events in the water-hosing experiment. On the other hand, this intensification is also because of greater climatological humidity over the western to central North Pacific under the weakened THC. We suggest that the increase of climatological humidity over the western to central North Pacific during summer under the weakened THC is favorable for enhanced interannual variability of precipitation, and therefore favorable for the intensification of the WNPAC during El Niño decaying summer. This study suggests a possible modulation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation-WNP summer monsoon relationship by the low-frequency fluctuation of Atlantic sea surface temperature. The results offer an explanation for the observed modification of the multidecadal fluctuation of El Niño-WNPAC relationship by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.

Exploring the impact of CMIP5 model biases on the simulation of North Atlantic decadal variability

Instrumental observations, palaeo-proxies, and climate models suggest significant decadal variability within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASPG). However, a poorly sampled observational record and a diversity of model behaviours mean that the precise nature and mechanisms of this variability are unclear. Here, we analyse an exceptionally large multi-model ensemble of 42 present-generation climate models to test whether NASPG mean state biases systematically affect the representation of decadal variability. Temperature and salinity biases in the Labrador Sea co-vary and influence whether density variability is controlled by temperature or salinity variations. Ocean horizontal resolution is a good predictor of the biases and the location of the dominant dynamical feedbacks within the NASPG. However, we find no link to the spectral characteristics of the variability. Our results suggest that the mean state and mechanisms of variability within the NASPG are not independent. This represents an important caveat for decadal predictions using anomaly-assimilation methods.