Verification of cloud-fraction forecasts

Cloud radar and lidar can be used to evaluate the skill of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting the timing and placement of clouds, but care must be taken in choosing the appropriate metric of skill to use due to the non- Gaussian nature of cloud-fraction distributions. We compare the properties of a number of different verification measures and conclude that of existing measures the Log of Odds Ratio is the most suitable for cloud fraction. We also propose a new measure, the Symmetric Extreme Dependency Score, which has very attractive properties, being equitable (for large samples), difficult to hedge and independent of the frequency of occurrence of the quantity being verified. We then use data from five European ground-based sites and seven forecast models, processed using the ‘Cloudnet’ analysis system, to investigate the dependence of forecast skill on cloud fraction threshold (for binary skill scores), height, horizontal scale and (for the Met Office and German Weather Service models) forecast lead time. The models are found to be least skillful at predicting the timing and placement of boundary-layer clouds and most skilful at predicting mid-level clouds, although in the latter case they tend to underestimate mean cloud fraction when cloud is present. It is found that skill decreases approximately inverse-exponentially with forecast lead time, enabling a forecast ‘half-life’ to be estimated. When considering the skill of instantaneous model snapshots, we find typical values ranging between 2.5 and 4.5 days. Copyright c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Thermodynamic analysis of snowball Earth hysteresis experiment: Efficiency, entropy production and irreversibility

We present an extensive thermodynamic analysis of a hysteresis experiment performed on a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We slowly vary the solar constant by 20% around the present value and detect that for a large range of values of the solar constant the realization of snowball or of regular climate conditions depends on the history of the system. Using recent results on the global climate thermodynamics, we show that the two regimes feature radically different properties. The efficiency of the climate machine monotonically increases with decreasing solar constant in present climate conditions, whereas the opposite takes place in snowball conditions. Instead, entropy production is monotonically increasing with the solar constant in both branches of climate conditions, and its value is about four times larger in the warm branch than in the corresponding cold state. Finally, the degree of irreversibility of the system, measured as the fraction of excess entropy production due to irreversible heat transport processes, is much higher in the warm climate conditions, with an explosive growth in the upper range of the considered values of solar constants. Whereas in the cold climate regime a dominating role is played by changes in the meridional albedo contrast, in the warm climate regime changes in the intensity of latent heat fluxes are crucial for determining the observed properties. This substantiates the importance of addressing correctly the variations of the hydrological cycle in a changing climate. An interpretation of the climate transitions at the tipping points based upon macro-scale thermodynamic properties is also proposed. Our results support the adoption of a new generation of diagnostic tools based on the second law of thermodynamics for auditing climate models and outline a set of parametrizations to be used in conceptual and intermediate-complexity models or for the reconstruction of the past climate conditions. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

The transformation of earth-system observations into information of socio-economic value in GEOSS

The Group on Earth Observations System of Systems, GEOSS, is a co-ordinated initiative by many nations to address the needs for earth-system information expressed by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. We discuss the role of earth-system modelling and data assimilation in transforming earth-system observations into the predictive and status-assessment products required by GEOSS, across many areas of socio-economic interest. First we review recent gains in the predictive skill of operational global earth-system models, on time-scales of days to several seasons. We then discuss recent work to develop from the global predictions a diverse set of end-user applications which can meet GEOSS requirements for information of socio-economic benefit; examples include forecasts of coastal storm surges, floods in large river basins, seasonal crop yield forecasts and seasonal lead-time alerts for malaria epidemics. We note ongoing efforts to extend operational earth-system modelling and assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition, in support of improved services for air-quality forecasts and for treaty assessment. We next sketch likely GEOSS observational requirements in the coming decades. In concluding, we reflect on the cost of earth observations relative to the modest cost of transforming the observations into information of socio-economic value.

Using Doppler radar with a simple explicit microphysics model to diagnose problems with ice sublimation depth-scales in forecast models

Several previous studies have attempted to assess the sublimation depth-scales of ice particles from clouds into clear air. Upon examining the sublimation depth-scales in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), it was found that the MetUM has evaporation depth-scales 2–3 times larger than radar observations. Similar results can be seen in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) and Météo-France models. In this study, we use radar simulation (converting model variables into radar observations) and one-dimensional explicit microphysics numerical modelling to test and diagnose the cause of the deep sublimation depth-scales in the forecast model. The MetUM data and parametrization scheme are used to predict terminal velocity, which can be compared with the observed Doppler velocity. This can then be used to test the hypothesis as to why the sublimation depth-scale is too large within the MetUM. Turbulence could lead to dry air entrainment and higher evaporation rates; particle density may be wrong, particle capacitance may be too high and lead to incorrect evaporation rates or the humidity within the sublimating layer may be incorrectly represented. We show that the most likely cause of deep sublimation zones is an incorrect representation of model humidity in the layer. This is tested further by using a one-dimensional explicit microphysics model, which tests the sensitivity of ice sublimation to key atmospheric variables and is capable of including sonde and radar measurements to simulate real cases. Results suggest that the MetUM grid resolution at ice cloud altitudes is not sufficient enough to maintain the sharp drop in humidity that is observed in the sublimation zone.

A new interpretation of the bonding properties and UV–vis spectra of [M3(CO)12] clusters (M = Ru, Os): a TD-DFT study

DFT and TD-DFT calculations (ADF program) were performed in order to analyze the electronic structure of the [M-3(CO)(12)] clusters (M = Ru, Os) and interpret their electronic spectra. The highest occupied molecular orbitals are M-M bonding (sigma) involving different M-M bonds, both for Ru and Os. They participate in low-energy excitation processes and their depopulation should weaken M-M bonds in general. While the LUMO is M-NI and M-CO anti-bonding (sigma*), the next, higher-lying empty orbitals have a main contribution from CO (pi*) and either a small (Ru) or an almost negligible one (Os) from the metal atoms. The main difference between the two clusters comes from the different nature of these low-energy unoccupied orbitals that have a larger metal contribution in the case of ruthenium. The photochemical reactivity of the two clusters is reexamined and compared to earlier interpretations.

Relationship between deadbeat and pole-placement discrete-time PID controllers

This paper considers PID control in terms of its implementation by means of an ARMA plant model. Two controller actions are considered, namely pole placement and deadbeat, both being applied via a PID structure for the adaptive real-time control of an industrial level system. As well as looking at two controller types separately, a comparison is made between the forms and it is shown how, under certain circumstances, the two forms can be seen to be identical. It is shown how the pole-placement PID form does not in fact realise an action which is equivalent to the deadbeat controller, when all closed-loop poles are chosen to be at the origin of the z-plane.

Relation between neuronal morphology and electrophysiology in the Kainate lesion model of Alzheimer's Disease

This paper describes a computational and statistical study of the influence of morphological changes on the electrophysiological response of neurons from an animal model of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). We combined experimental morphological data from rat hippocampal CA1 pyramidal cells with a well-established model of active membrane properties. Dendritic morphology and the somatic response to simulated current clamp conditions were then compared for cells from the control and the AD group. The computational approach allowed us to single out the influences of neuromorphology on neuronal response by eliminating the effects of active channel variability. The results did not reveal a simple relationship between morphological changes associated with AD and changes in neural response. However, they did suggest the existence of more complex than anticipated relationships between dendritic morphology and single-cell electrophysiology.

Multi-microprocessor control of processes with pure time delay

In 1967 a novel scheme was proposed for controlling processes with large pure time delay (Fellgett et al, 1967) and some of the constituent parts of the scheme were investigated (Swann, 1970; Atkinson et al, 1973). At that time the available computational facilities were inadequate for the scheme to be implemented practically, but with the advent of modern microcomputers the scheme becomes feasible. This paper describes recent work (Mitchell, 1987) in implementing the scheme in a new multi-microprocessor configuration and shows the improved performance it provides compared with conventional three-term controllers.