Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world

Current state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth’s mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations it is standard practice to compare temperature anomalies with respect to a reference period. It is not always appreciated that the choice of reference period can affect conclusions, both about the skill of simulations of past climate, and about the magnitude of expected future changes in climate. For example, observed global temperatures over the past decade are towards the lower end of the range of CMIP5 simulations irrespective of what reference period is used, but exactly where they lie in the model distribution varies with the choice of reference period. Additionally, we demonstrate that projections of when particular temperature levels are reached, for example 2K above ‘pre-industrial’, change by up to a decade depending on the choice of reference period. In this article we discuss some of the key issues that arise when using anomalies relative to a reference period to generate climate projections. We highlight that there is no perfect choice of reference period. When evaluating models against observations, a long reference period should generally be used, but how long depends on the quality of the observations available. The IPCC AR5 choice to use a 1986-2005 reference period for future global temperature projections was reasonable, but a case-by-case approach is needed for different purposes and when assessing projections of different climate variables. Finally, we recommend that any studies that involve the use of a reference period should explicitly examine the robustness of the conclusions to alternative choices.

Word juncture characteristics in world Englishes: a research report

The subtle juncture cues in older varieties of English such as Received Pronunciation can be difficult for speakers of new English varieties to perceive. This study looks at the perception of word juncture characteristics in three varieties of English (British, Hong Kong and Singapore) among British, Hong Kong and Singaporean listeners in order to widen our understanding of English juncture characteristics in general. We find that, even though reaction time data indicates that listeners perform quickest in the variety they are most familiar with, not only are juncture differences in British English difficult for Hong Kong and Singaporean listeners to perceive, they are also the most difficult for British listeners. Juncture characteristics in Hong Kong English are the easiest to distinguish among the three varieties.

Entrepreneurial dynamics and higher education institutions in the post-communist world

This study draws on the institutional and regional entrepreneurship literature to develop a conceptual framework that analyses the impact of higher education institutions on entrepreneurial dynamics. It is used to examine the cities of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) during the period 1995–2008. Extending the multi-pillar institutional concept, it is found that higher education institutions play a prominent role in fostering entrepreneurial dynamics in CIS cities through multiple channels, including human capital development, cultivating a positive attitude towards entrepreneurship, affecting the perceptions of the knowledge and skills needed to start up a successful business, and knowledge spillovers.

Libraries and networks of influence in the Roman world

This paper is concerned with the ways in which libraries – in this case public libraries in Rome and the Roman world – acted as points of connectivity and communication.

Learning Latin the ancient way: Latin textbooks from the ancient world

A collection of Latin textbooks used by Greek speakers in the Roman empire, translated and annotated for modern readers. Includes reading material such as dialogues, phrasebooks, Colloquia of the Hermeneumata Pseudodositheana, stories about the Trojan war, Aesop's fables, legal treatises, and model letters; grammatical works from Dositheus and Charisius; glossaries/lexica; prose compostion exercises; alphabets. Some texts are transliterated.

Contribution to The World Goes Pop exhibition catalogue

Biographies for artists Barel, Joav (p.174), Brudascu, Cornel (p.177), Bucan, Boris (p.178), Chicago, Judy (p.182), Ivekovic, Sanja (p.197), Komar and Melamid (p.200), Lach-Lachowicz, Natalia (p.203), Otasevic, Dusan (p.212), Overstreet, Joe (p.214), Pininska - Beres, Maria (p.215), Rosler, Martha (p.222), Schifano, Mario (p.223), Self, Colin (p.224), Tajiri, Thinkichi (p.228), Tanaami, Keiichi (p.229), Tilson, Joe (p.231), Vardea, Chryssa (p.233), Yokoo, Tadanori (p.234), Zelibska, Jana (p.235) and Zielinski, Jerzy (p.236).

Ecuador Paraiso Escondido virus, a new flavivirus isolated from New World sand flies in Ecuador, is the first representative of a novel clade in the genus flavivirus

A new flavivirus, Ecuador Paraiso Escondido virus (EPEV), named after the village where it was discovered, was isolated from sand flies (Psathyromyia abonnenci, formerly Lutzomyia abonnenci) that are unique to the New World. This represents the first sand fly-borne flavivirus identified in the New World. EPEV exhibited a typical flavivirus genome organization. Nevertheless, the maximum pairwise amino acid sequence identity with currently recognized flaviviruses was 52.8%. Phylogenetic analysis of the complete coding sequence showed that EPEV represents a distinct clade which diverged from a lineage that was ancestral to the nonvectored flaviviruses Entebbe bat virus, Yokose virus, and Sokoluk virus and also the Aedes-associated mosquito-borne flaviviruses, which include yellow fever virus, Sepik virus, Saboya virus, and others. EPEV replicated in C6/36 mosquito cells, yielding high infectious titers, but failed to reproduce either in vertebrate cell lines (Vero, BHK, SW13, and XTC cells) or in suckling mouse brains. This surprising result, which appears to eliminate an association with vertebrate hosts in the life cycle of EPEV, is discussed in the context of the evolutionary origins of EPEV in the New World.The flaviviruses are rarely (if ever) vectored by sand fly species, at least in the Old World. We have identified the first representative of a sand fly-associated flavivirus, Ecuador Paraiso Escondido virus (EPEV), in the New World. EPEV constitutes a novel clade according to current knowledge of the flaviviruses. Phylogenetic analysis of the virus genome showed that EPEV roots the Aedes-associated mosquito-borne flaviviruses, including yellow fever virus. In light of this new discovery, the New World origin of EPEV is discussed together with that of the other flaviviruses.