Segmenting the Italian coffee market: marketing opportunities for economic agents working along the international coffee chain

Globalization, either directly or indirectly (e.g. through structural adjustment reforms), has called for profound changes in the previously existing institutional order. Some changes adversely impacted the production and market environment of many coffee producers in developing countries resulting in more risky and less remunerative coffee transactions. This paper focuses on customization of a tropical commodity, fair-trade coffee, as an approach to mitigating the effects of worsened market conditions for small-scale coffee producers in less developed countries. fair-trade labeling is viewed as a form of “de-commodification” of coffee through product differentiation on ethical grounds. This is significant not only as a solution to the market failure caused by pervasive information asymmetries along the supply chain, but also as a means of revitalizing the agricultural-commodity-based trade of less developed countries (LDCs) that has been languishing under globalization. More specifically, fair-trade is an example of how the same strategy adopted by developed countries’ producers/ processors (i.e. the sequence product differentiation - institutional certification - advertisement) can be used by LDC producers to increase the reputation content of their outputs by transforming them from mere commodities into “decommodified” (i.e. customized and more reputed) goods. The resulting segmentation of the world coffee market makes possible to meet the demand by consumers with preference for this “(ethically) customized” coffee and to transfer a share of the accruing economic rents backward to the Fair-trade coffee producers in LDCs. It should however be stressed that this outcome cannot be taken for granted since investments are needed to promote the required institutional innovations. In Italy FTC is a niche market with very few private brands selling this product. However, an increase of FTC market share could be a big commercial opportunity for farmers in LDCs and other economic agents involved along the international coffee chain. Hence, this research explores consumers’ knowledge of labels promoting quality products, consumption coffee habits, brand loyalty, willingness to pay and market segmentation according to the heterogeneity of preferences for coffee products. The latter was assessed developing a D-efficient design where stimuli refinement was tested during two focus groups.

The slowly evolving background state of the atmosphere

The theory of wave–mean flow interaction requires a partition of the atmospheric flow into a notional background state and perturbations to it. Here, a background state, known as the Modified Lagrangian Mean (MLM), is defined as the zonally symmetric state obtained by requiring that every potential vorticity (PV) contour lying within an isentropic layer encloses the same mass and circulation as in the full flow. For adiabatic and frictionless flow, these two integral properties are time-invariant and the MLM state is a steady solution of the primitive equations. The time dependence in the adiabatic flow is put into the perturbations, which can be described by a wave-activity conservation law that is exact even at large amplitude. Furthermore, the effects of non-conservative processes on wave activity can be calculated from the conservation law. A new method to calculate the MLM state is introduced, where the position of the lower boundary is obtained as part of the solution. The results are illustrated using Northern Hemisphere ERA-Interim data. The MLM state evolves slowly, implying that the net non-conservative effects are weak. Although ‘adiabatic eddy fluxes’ cannot affect the MLM state, the effects of Rossby-wave breaking, PV filamentation and subsequent dissipation result in sharpening of the polar vortex edge and meridional shifts in the MLM zonal flow, both at tropopause level and on the winter stratospheric vortex. The rate of downward migration of wave activity during stratospheric sudden warmings is shown to be given by the vertical scale associated with polar vortex tilt divided by the time-scale for wave dissipation estimated from the wave-activity conservation law. Aspects of troposphere–stratosphere interaction are discussed. The new framework is suitable to examine the climate and its interactions with disturbances, such as midlatitude storm tracks, and makes a clean partition between adiabatic and non-conservative processes.

Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model simulation for 6000 years B.P. and comparison with palaeodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa

The LMD AGCM was iteratively coupled to the global BIOME1 model in order to explore the role of vegetation-climate interactions in response to mid-Holocene (6000 y BP) orbital forcing. The sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distribution used were present-day and CO2 concentration was pre-industrial. The land surface was initially prescribed with present-day vegetation. Initial climate “anomalies” (differences between AGCM results for 6000 y BP and control) were used to drive BIOME1; the simulated vegetation was provided to a further AGCM run, and so on. Results after five iterations were compared to the initial results in order to identify vegetation feedbacks. These were centred on regions showing strong initial responses. The orbitally induced high-latitude summer warming, and the intensification and extension of Northern Hemisphere tropical monsoons, were both amplified by vegetation feedbacks. Vegetation feedbacks were smaller than the initial orbital effects for most regions and seasons, but in West Africa the summer precipitation increase more than doubled in response to changes in vegetation. In the last iteration, global tundra area was reduced by 25% and the southern limit of the Sahara desert was shifted 2.5 °N north (to 18 °N) relative to today. These results were compared with 6000 y BP observational data recording forest-tundra boundary changes in northern Eurasia and savana-desert boundary changes in northern Africa. Although the inclusion of vegetation feedbacks improved the qualitative agreement between the model results and the data, the simulated changes were still insufficient, perhaps due to the lack of ocean-surface feedbacks.

Home in British working-class fiction

Offering new readings of working-class writing that focus on the home as a key emotional and material site in writing by working-class authors from the Edwardian period through to the mid-1990s. With close readings of The Ragged Trousered Philanthropists, works by D. H. Lawrence, Ethel Carnie Holdsworth, Ellen Wilkinson, Lewis Grassic Gibbon, Walter Brierley, Alan Sillitoe, John Braine, Nell Dunn, Sam Selvon, Sid Chaplin, Buchi Emecheta, Pat Barker, Jeanette Winterson, James Kelman and many others. The book demonstrates the importance of ideas of home and its narrative representation to the making and expression of class feeling and identity.

Freshwater transport in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system: a passive ocean

Conservation of water demands that meridional ocean and atmosphere freshwater transports (FWT) are of equal magnitude but opposite in direction. This suggests that the atmospheric FWT and its associated latent heat (LH) transport could be thought of as a \textquotedblleft coupled ocean/atmosphere mode\textquotedblright. But what is the true nature of this coupling? Is the ocean passive or active? Here we analyze a series of simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model employing highly idealized geometries but with markedly different coupled climates and patterns of ocean circulation. Exploiting streamfunctions in specific humidity coordinates for the atmosphere and salt coordinates for the ocean to represent FWT in their respective medium, we find that atmospheric FWT/LH transport is essentially independent of the ocean state. Ocean circulation and salinity distribution adjust to achieve a return freshwater pathway demanded of them by the atmosphere. So, although ocean and atmosphere FWTs are indeed coupled by mass conservation, the ocean is a passive component acting as a reservoir of freshwater.

A coupled cloud physics–radiation parameterization of the bulk optical properties of cirrus and its impact on the Met Office unified model global atmosphere 5.0 configuration

A new coupled cloud physics–radiation parameterization of the bulk optical properties of ice clouds is presented. The parameterization is consistent with assumptions in the cloud physics scheme regarding particle size distributions (PSDs) and mass–dimensional relationships. The parameterization is based on a weighted ice crystal habit mixture model, and its bulk optical properties are parameterized as simple functions of wavelength and ice water content (IWC). This approach directly couples IWC to the bulk optical properties, negating the need for diagnosed variables, such as the ice crystal effective dimension. The parameterization is implemented into the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 5.0 (GA5) configuration. The GA5 configuration is used to simulate the annual 20-yr shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), as well as the temperature structure of the atmosphere, under various microphysical assumptions. The coupled parameterization is directly compared against the current operational radiation parameterization, while maintaining the same cloud physics assumptions. In this experiment, the impacts of the two parameterizations on the SW and LW radiative effects at TOA are also investigated and compared against observations. The 20-yr simulations are compared against the latest observations of the atmospheric temperature and radiative fluxes at TOA. The comparisons demonstrate that the choice of PSD and the assumed ice crystal shape distribution are as important as each other. Moreover, the consistent radiation parameterization removes a long-standing tropical troposphere cold temperature bias but slightly warms the southern midlatitudes by about 0.5 K.

Assessing pragmatic interoperability for process alignment in collaborative working environment

This paper is an extension of our previous study on pragmatic interoperability assessment for process alignment. In this study, we conduct four case studies in industrial companies and hospitals in order to gather their viewpoints regarding the concerns when condensing process alignment in a collaborative working environment. Used techniques include interview, observation, and documentation. The collected results firstly are summarised into three layers based on our previous developed pragmatic assessment model, and then are transformed into the elements which constitutes the purposed method, and finally based on the summarised results we purpose a method for assessing pragmatic interoperability for process alignment in collaborative working environment. The method contains two parts: one gives all the elements of pragmatic interoperability that should be concerned when considering process alignment in collaborative working environment, and the other one is a supplementary method for dealing with technical concerns.

The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations

We describe Global Atmosphere 3.0 (GA3.0): a configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) developed for use across climate research and weather prediction activities. GA3.0 has been formulated by converging the development paths of the Met Office's weather and climate global atmospheric model components such that wherever possible, atmospheric processes are modelled or parametrized seamlessly across spatial resolutions and timescales. This unified development process will provide the Met Office and its collaborators with regular releases of a configuration that has been evaluated, and can hence be applied, over a variety of modelling régimes. We also describe Global Land 3.0 (GL3.0): a configuration of the JULES community land surface model developed for use with GA3.0.

Working through the layers: curriculum implementation in language education

This chapter presents findings on English Language instruction at the lower primary level in the context of policies for curricular innovation at national, school and classroom levels. The focus is on policies which connect national and school levels, and on how they might be interpreted when implemented in multiple schools within Singapore’s educational system. Referring to case studies in two schools and to individual lesson observations in 10 schools, we found much agreement with national policies in terms of curriculum (i.e. lesson content and activity selection),leading to great uniformity in the lessons taught by different teachers in different schools. In addition, we found that schools had an important mediating influence on implementation of national policies. However, adoptions and adaptations of policy innovations at the classroom level were somewhat superficial as they were more related to changes in educational facilities and procedures than in philosophies.

Carotenoids but not flavonoids are associated with improvements in spatial working memory in younger adults in a flavonoid-rich v. -poor fruit and vegetable intervention study

Findings from animal studies suggest that components of fruit and vegetables (F&V) may protect against, and even reverse, age-related decline(1,2) in aspects of cognitive functioning such as spatial working memory (SWM). Human subjects in vivo and in vitro studies indicate that anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidant and cell-signalling properties of flavonoids and carotenoids, non-nutrient components of F&V, may underpin this protective effect(3–5). The Flavonoid University of Reading Study (FLAVURS), designed to explore the dose-response relationship between dietary F&V flavonoids and CVD, enabled the investigation of such an association with SWM. FLAVURS is an 18-week parallel three-arm randomised controlled dietary intervention trial with four time points, measured at 6-weekly intervals from baseline. Low F&V consumers at risk of CVD aged 26–70 years were randomly assigned to high flavonoid (HF), low flavonoid (LF) or control group. F&V intake increased by two daily 80 g portions every 6 weeks, with either HF or LF F&V, in addition to each participant's habitual diet, while controls maintained their habitual diet. At each visit, participants completed a cognitive test battery with SWM as the primary outcome. The HF group showed significantly higher levels of urinary flavonoids than LF or controls at 12 weeks (P<0.001) as expected, but surprisingly only higher levels than LF at 18 weeks (P<0.01). The LF group showed higher levels of plasma carotenoids than the other groups at 18 weeks (P<0.001). No group differences were found for SWM overall, however, age-group sub-analyses (26–50 and 51–70 years of age) showed differences from 0 to 18 weeks for younger adults, with LF improving significantly more than the other two groups on SWM (P<0.05). As nutritional absorption is known to decrease with age, separate stepwise regressions were performed on the two age groups irrespective of dietary group, with urinary flavonoids and plasma carotenoids as predictors. For younger adults, improved SWM performance from 0 to 18 weeks was associated with higher carotenoid levels, β=0.28, t(55)=2.10, P<0.05, accounting for 7.5% of the variance, R2=0.075, F(1,54)=4.41, P=0.040. For older adults, no between-group SWM differences were found. Findings suggest that F&V-based flavonoids and carotenoids may provide benefits for cognitive function, and that carotenoids in particular may improve cognitive performance in SWM. Given that these benefits were restricted to younger adults, future work is needed to test the reliability of this finding, as well as determine the mechanisms by which age-dependent differences in F&V responsiveness occur.

Further considerations of cosmic ray modulation of infra-red radiation in the atmosphere

Understanding effects of ionisation in the lower atmosphere is a new interdisciplinary area, crossing the traditionally distinct scientific boundaries between astro-particle and atmospheric physics and also requiring understanding of both heliospheric and magnetospheric influences on cosmic rays. Following the paper of Erlykin et al. (2014) we develop further the interpretation of our observed changes in long-wave (LW) radiation, Aplin and Lockwood (2013) by taking account of both cosmic ray ionisation yields and atmospheric radiative transfer. To demonstrate this, we show that the thermal structure of the whole atmosphere needs to be considered along with the vertical profile of ionisation. Allowing for, in particular, ionisation by all components of a cosmic ray shower and not just by the muons, reveals that the effect we have detected is certainly not inconsistent with laboratory observations of the LW absorption cross section. The analysis presented here, although very different from that of Erlykin et al., does come to the same conclusion that the events detected by AL were not caused by individual cosmic ray primaries – not because it is impossible on energetic grounds, but because events of the required energy are too infrequent for the 12 h_1 rate at which they were seen by the AL experiment. The present paper numerically models the effect of three different scenario changes to the primary GCR spectrum which all reproduce the required magnitude of the effect observed by AL. However, they cannot solely explain the observed delay in the peak effect which, if confirmed, would appear to open up a whole new and interesting area in the study of water oligomers and their effects on LW radiation. We argue that a technical artefact in the AL experiment is highly unlikely and that our initial observations merit both a wide-ranging follow-up experiment and more rigorous, self-consistent, three-dimensional radiative transfer modelling

Exploring strategies for coupled 4D-Var data assimilation using an idealised atmosphere-ocean model

Operational forecasting centres are currently developing data assimilation systems for coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Strongly coupled assimilation, in which a single assimilation system is applied to a coupled model, presents significant technical and scientific challenges. Hence weakly coupled assimilation systems are being developed as a first step, in which the coupled model is used to compare the current state estimate with observations, but corrections to the atmosphere and ocean initial conditions are then calculated independently. In this paper we provide a comprehensive description of the different coupled assimilation methodologies in the context of four dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var) and use an idealised framework to assess the expected benefits of moving towards coupled data assimilation. We implement an incremental 4D-Var system within an idealised single column atmosphere-ocean model. The system has the capability to run both strongly and weakly coupled assimilations as well as uncoupled atmosphere or ocean only assimilations, thus allowing a systematic comparison of the different strategies for treating the coupled data assimilation problem. We present results from a series of identical twin experiments devised to investigate the behaviour and sensitivities of the different approaches. Overall, our study demonstrates the potential benefits that may be expected from coupled data assimilation. When compared to uncoupled initialisation, coupled assimilation is able to produce more balanced initial analysis fields, thus reducing initialisation shock and its impact on the subsequent forecast. Single observation experiments demonstrate how coupled assimilation systems are able to pass information between the atmosphere and ocean and therefore use near-surface data to greater effect. We show that much of this benefit may also be gained from a weakly coupled assimilation system, but that this can be sensitive to the parameters used in the assimilation.

Origin and impact of initialisation shocks in coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasts

Current methods for initialising coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasts often rely on the use of separate atmosphere and ocean analyses, the combination of which can leave the coupled system imbalanced at the beginning of the forecast, potentially accelerating the development of errors. Using a series of experiments with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts coupled system, the magnitude and extent of these so-called initialisation shocks is quantified, and their impact on forecast skill measured. It is found that forecasts initialised by separate ocean and atmospheric analyses do exhibit initialisation shocks in lower atmospheric temperature, when compared to forecasts initialised using a coupled data assimilation method. These shocks result in as much as a doubling of root-mean-square error on the first day of the forecast in some regions, and in increases that are sustained for the duration of the 10-day forecasts performed here. However, the impacts of this choice of initialisation on forecast skill, assessed using independent datasets, were found to be negligible, at least over the limited period studied. Larger initialisation shocks are found to follow a change in either the atmospheric or ocean model component between the analysis and forecast phases: changes in the ocean component can lead to sea surface temperature shocks of more than 0.5K in some equatorial regions during the first day of the forecast. Implications for the development of coupled forecast systems, particularly with respect to coupled data assimilation methods, are discussed.

Energetic particle influence on the Earth's atmosphere

This manuscript gives an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of the effects of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) onto the whole atmosphere, from the lower thermosphere/mesosphere through the stratosphere and troposphere, to the surface. The paper summarizes the different sources and energies of particles, principally galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), solar energetic particles (SEPs) and energetic electron precipitation (EEP). All the proposed mechanisms by which EPP can affect the atmosphere are discussed, including chemical changes in the upper atmosphere and lower thermosphere, chemistry-dynamics feedbacks, the global electric circuit and cloud formation. The role of energetic particles in Earth’s atmosphere is a multi-disciplinary problem that requires expertise from a range of scientific backgrounds. To assist with this synergy, summary tables are provided, which are intended to evaluate the level of current knowledge of the effects of energetic particles on processes in the entire atmosphere.