Parametrizing the horizontal inhomogeneity of ice water content using CloudSat data products

In order to calculate unbiased microphysical and radiative quantities in the presence of a cloud, it is necessary to know not only the mean water content but also the distribution of this water content. This article describes a study of the in-cloud horizontal inhomogeneity of ice water content, based on CloudSat data. In particular, by focusing on the relations with variables that are already available in general circulation models (GCMs), a parametrization of inhomogeneity that is suitable for inclusion in GCM simulations is developed. Inhomogeneity is defined in terms of the fractional standard deviation (FSD), which is given by the standard deviation divided by the mean. The FSD of ice water content is found to increase with the horizontal scale over which it is calculated and also with the thickness of the layer. The connection to cloud fraction is more complicated; for small cloud fractions FSD increases as cloud fraction increases while FSD decreases sharply for overcast scenes. The relations to horizontal scale, layer thickness and cloud fraction are parametrized in a relatively simple equation. The performance of this parametrization is tested on an independent set of CloudSat data. The parametrization is shown to be a significant improvement on the assumption of a single-valued global FSD

Effect of azole fungicide mixtures, alternations and dose on azole sensitivity in the wheat pathogen Zymoseptoria tritici

The evolution of fungicide resistance in the cereal pathogen Zymoseptoria tritici, is a serious threat to the sustainability and profitability of wheat production in Europe. Application of azole fungicides has been shown to affect fitness of Z. tritici variants differentially, so it has been hypothesised that combinations of azoles could slow the evolution of resistance. This work was initiated to assess the effects of dose, mixtures and alternations of two azoles on selection for isolates with reduced sensitivity and on disease control. Naturally infected field trials were carried out at six sites across Ireland and the sensitivity of Z. tritici isolates monitored pre- and post-treatment. The azoles epoxiconazole and metconazole were applied as solo products, in alternation with each other and as a pre-formulated mixture. Full and half label doses were tested. The two azoles were partially cross-resistant, with a common azole resistance principal component accounting for 75% of the variation between isolates. Selection for isolates with reduced azole sensitivity was correlated with disease control. Decreased doses were related to decreases in sensitivity but the effect was barely significant (P = 0.1) and control was reduced. Single applications of an active ingredient (a.i.) caused smaller decreases in sensitivity than double applications. Shifts in sensitivity to the a.i. applied to a plot were greater than to the a.i. not applied, and the decrease in sensitivity was greater to the a.i. applied at the second timing. These results confirm the need to mix a.i.s with different modes of action.

Efficient masking of corrosion and fission products such as Ni(II) and Pd(II) in the presence of the minor actinide Am(III) using hydrophilic anionic or cationic bis-triazines

Water soluble anionic and cationic bis-triazine ligands are able to suppress (mask) the extraction of corrosion and fission products such as Ni(II) and Pd(II) that are found in PUREX raffinates. Thus it is possible to separate these elements from the minor actinide Am(III). Although some masking agents have previously been developed that retard the extraction of Pd(II), this is the first time a masking agent has been developed for Ni(II).

Sample size considerations in active-control non-inferiority trials with binary data based on the odds ratio

This paper presents an approximate closed form sample size formula for determining non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data. We use the odds-ratio as the measure of the relative treatment effect, derive the sample size formula based on the score test and compare it with a second, well-known formula based on the Wald test. Both closed form formulae are compared with simulations based on the likelihood ratio test. Within the range of parameter values investigated, the score test closed form formula is reasonably accurate when non-inferiority margins are based on odds-ratios of about 0.5 or above and when the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis lies between about 1 and 2.5. The accuracy generally decreases as the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis moves upwards from 1. As the non-inferiority margin odds ratio decreases from 0.5, the score test closed form formula increasingly overestimates the sample size irrespective of the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. The Wald test closed form formula is also reasonably accurate in the cases where the score test closed form formula works well. Outside these scenarios, the Wald test closed form formula can either underestimate or overestimate the sample size, depending on the magnitude of the non-inferiority margin odds ratio and the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. Although neither approximation is accurate for all cases, both approaches lead to satisfactory sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials with binary data where the odds ratio is the parameter of interest.

Investigation of the accuracy of historical irradiance products and interannual variability of solar irradiance using Met Office ground data

Met Office station data from 1980 to 2012 has been used to characterise the interannual variability of incident solar irradiance across the UK. The same data are used to evaluate four popular historical irradiance products to determine which are most suitable for use by the UK PV industry for site selection and system design. The study confirmed previous findings that interannual variability is typically 3–6% and weighted average probability of a particular percentage deviation from the mean at an average site in the UK was calculated. This weighted average showed that fewer than 2% of site-years could be expected to fall below 90% of the long-term site mean. The historical irradiance products were compared against Met Office station data from the input years of each product. This investigation has found that all products perform well. No products have a strong spatial trend. Meteonorm 7 is most conservative (MBE = −2.5%), CMSAF is most optimistic (MBE = +3.4%) and an average of all four products performs better than any one individual product (MBE = 0.3%)

Asset liability modelling and pension schemes: the application of robust optimization to USS

This paper uses a novel numerical optimization technique - robust optimization - that is well suited to solving the asset-liability management (ALM) problem for pension schemes. It requires the estimation of fewer stochastic parameters, reduces estimation risk and adopts a prudent approach to asset allocation. This study is the first to apply it to a real-world pension scheme, and the first ALM model of a pension scheme to maximise the Sharpe ratio. We disaggregate pension liabilities into three components - active members, deferred members and pensioners, and transform the optimal asset allocation into the scheme’s projected contribution rate. The robust optimization model is extended to include liabilities and used to derive optimal investment policies for the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), benchmarked against the Sharpe and Tint, Bayes-Stein, and Black-Litterman models as well as the actual USS investment decisions. Over a 144 month out-of-sample period robust optimization is superior to the four benchmarks across 20 performance criteria, and has a remarkably stable asset allocation – essentially fix-mix. These conclusions are supported by six robustness checks.

Key bioactive reaction products of the NO/H2S interaction are S/N-hybrid species, polysulfides, and nitroxyl

Experimental evidence suggests that nitric oxide (NO) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) signaling pathways are intimately intertwined, with mutual attenuation or potentiation of biological responses in the cardiovascular system and elsewhere. The chemical basis of this interaction is elusive. Moreover, polysulfides recently emerged as potential mediators of H2S/sulfide signaling, but their biosynthesis and relationship to NO remain enigmatic. We sought to characterize the nature, chemical biology, and bioactivity of key reaction products formed in the NO/sulfide system. At physiological pH, we find that NO and sulfide form a network of cascading chemical reactions that generate radical intermediates as well as anionic and uncharged solutes, with accumulation of three major products: nitrosopersulfide (SSNO−), polysulfides, and dinitrososulfite N-nitrosohydroxylamine-N-sulfonate (SULFI/NO), each with a distinct chemical biology and in vitro and in vivo bioactivity. SSNO− is resistant to thiols and cyanolysis, efficiently donates both sulfane sulfur and NO, and potently lowers blood pressure. Polysulfides are both intermediates and products of SSNO− synthesis/decomposition, and they also decrease blood pressure and enhance arterial compliance. SULFI/NO is a weak combined NO/nitroxyl donor that releases mainly N2O on decomposition; although it affects blood pressure only mildly, it markedly increases cardiac contractility, and formation of its precursor sulfite likely contributes to NO scavenging. Our results unveil an unexpectedly rich network of coupled chemical reactions between NO and H2S/sulfide, suggesting that the bioactivity of either transmitter is governed by concomitant formation of polysulfides and anionic S/N-hybrid species. This conceptual framework would seem to offer ample opportunities for the modulation of fundamental biological processes governed by redox switching and sulfur trafficking.

The effects of dairy management and processing on quality characteristics of milk and dairy products

Studies within the QLIF project reviewed in this article suggest that organic or low-input management is more likely to result in milk with fatty acid profiles that are higher in α-linolenic acid and/or beneficial isomers of conjugated linoleic acid and antioxidants with up to a 2.5-fold increase in some cases, relative to milk from conventional production. These advantages are preserved during processing, resulting in elevated contents or concentrations of these constituents in processed dairy products of organic or low input origin. Much of the literature suggests that these benefits are very likely to be a result of a greater reliance on forages in the dairy diets (especially grazed grass). Since the adoption of alternative breeds or crosses is often an integral part sustaining these low-input systems, it is not possible to rule out an interaction with genotype in these monitored herds. The results suggest that milk fat composition with respect to human health can be optimized by exploiting grazing in the diet of dairy cows. However, in many European regions this may not be possible due to extremes in temperature, soil moisture levels or both. In such cases milk quality can be maintained by the inclusion of oil seeds in the dairy diets.

Search engine liability for autocomplete suggestions: personality, privacy and the power of the algorithm

This article is concerned with the liability of search engines for algorithmically produced search suggestions, such as through Google’s ‘autocomplete’ function. Liability in this context may arise when automatically generated associations have an offensive or defamatory meaning, or may even induce infringement of intellectual property rights. The increasing number of cases that have been brought before courts all over the world puts forward questions on the conflict of fundamental freedoms of speech and access to information on the one hand, and personality rights of individuals— under a broader right of informational self-determination—on the other. In the light of the recent judgment of the Court of Justice of the European Union (EU) in Google Spain v AEPD, this article concludes that many requests for removal of suggestions including private individuals’ information will be successful on the basis of EU data protection law, even absent prejudice to the person concerned.

Missing steps in a staircase: a qualitative study of the perspectives of key stakeholders on the use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Despite the promising benefits of adaptive designs (ADs), their routine use, especially in confirmatory trials, is lagging behind the prominence given to them in the statistical literature. Much of the previous research to understand barriers and potential facilitators to the use of ADs has been driven from a pharmaceutical drug development perspective, with little focus on trials in the public sector. In this paper, we explore key stakeholders’ experiences, perceptions and views on barriers and facilitators to the use of ADs in publicly funded confirmatory trials. Methods Semi-structured, in-depth interviews of key stakeholders in clinical trials research (CTU directors, funding board and panel members, statisticians, regulators, chief investigators, data monitoring committee members and health economists) were conducted through telephone or face-to-face sessions, predominantly in the UK. We purposively selected participants sequentially to optimise maximum variation in views and experiences. We employed the framework approach to analyse the qualitative data. Results We interviewed 27 participants. We found some of the perceived barriers to be: lack of knowledge and experience coupled with paucity of case studies, lack of applied training, degree of reluctance to use ADs, lack of bridge funding and time to support design work, lack of statistical expertise, some anxiety about the impact of early trial stopping on researchers’ employment contracts, lack of understanding of acceptable scope of ADs and when ADs are appropriate, and statistical and practical complexities. Reluctance to use ADs seemed to be influenced by: therapeutic area, unfamiliarity, concerns about their robustness in decision-making and acceptability of findings to change practice, perceived complexities and proposed type of AD, among others. Conclusions There are still considerable multifaceted, individual and organisational obstacles to be addressed to improve uptake, and successful implementation of ADs when appropriate. Nevertheless, inferred positive change in attitudes and receptiveness towards the appropriate use of ADs by public funders are supportive and are a stepping stone for the future utilisation of ADs by researchers.

Energy compensation following consumption of sugar-reduced products: a randomized controlled trial

PURPOSE: Consumption of sugar-reformulated products (commercially available foods and beverages that have been reduced in sugar content through reformulation) is a potential strategy for lowering sugar intake at a population level. The impact of sugar-reformulated products on body weight, energy balance (EB) dynamics and cardiovascular disease risk indicators has yet to be established. The REFORMulated foods (REFORM) study examined the impact of an 8-week sugar-reformulated product exchange on body weight, EB dynamics, blood pressure, arterial stiffness, glycemia and lipemia. METHODS: A randomized, controlled, double-blind, crossover dietary intervention study was performed with fifty healthy normal to overweight men and women (age 32.0 ± 9.8 year, BMI 23.5 ± 3.0 kg/m2) who were randomly assigned to consume either regular sugar or sugar-reduced foods and beverages for 8 weeks, separated by 4-week washout period. Body weight, energy intake (EI), energy expenditure and vascular markers were assessed at baseline and after both interventions. RESULTS: We found that carbohydrate (P < 0.001), total sugars (P < 0.001) and non-milk extrinsic sugars (P < 0.001) (% EI) were lower, whereas fat (P = 0.001) and protein (P = 0.038) intakes (% EI) were higher on the sugar-reduced than the regular diet. No effects on body weight, blood pressure, arterial stiffness, fasting glycemia or lipemia were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Consumption of sugar-reduced products, as part of a blinded dietary exchange for an 8-week period, resulted in a significant reduction in sugar intake. Body weight did not change significantly, which we propose was due to energy compensation.