Properties of singular vectors using convective available potential energy as final time norm

We study the feasibility of using the singular vector technique to create initial condition perturbations for short-range ensemble prediction systems (SREPS) focussing on predictability of severe local storms and in particular deep convection. For this a new final time semi-norm based on the convective available potential energy (CAPE) is introduced. We compare singular vectors using the CAPE-norm with SVs using the more common total energy (TE) norm for a 2-week summer period in 2007, which includes a case of mesoscale extreme rainfall in the south west of Finland. The CAPE singular vectors perturb the CAPE field by increasing the specific humidity and temperature of the parcel and increase the lapse rate above the parcel in the lower troposphere consistent with physical considerations. The CAPE-SVs are situated in the lower troposphere. This in contrast to TE-SVs with short optimization times which predominantly remain in the high troposphere. By examining the time evolution of the CAPE singular values we observe that the convective event in the south west of Finland is clearly associated with high CAPE singular values.

Evaluation of water and energy budgets in regional climate models applied over Europe

This study presents a model intercomparison of four regional climate models (RCMs) and one variable resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) applied over Europe with special focus on the hydrological cycle and the surface energy budget. The models simulated the 15 years from 1979 to 1993 by using quasi-observed boundary conditions derived from ECMWF re-analyses (ERA). The model intercomparison focuses on two large atchments representing two different climate conditions covering two areas of major research interest within Europe. The first is the Danube catchment which represents a continental climate dominated by advection from the surrounding land areas. It is used to analyse the common model error of a too dry and too warm simulation of the summertime climate of southeastern Europe. This summer warming and drying problem is seen in many RCMs, and to a less extent in GCMs. The second area is the Baltic Sea catchment which represents maritime climate dominated by advection from the ocean and from the Baltic Sea. This catchment is a research area of many studies within Europe and also covered by the BALTEX program. The observed data used are monthly mean surface air temperature, precipitation and river discharge. For all models, these are used to estimate mean monthly biases of all components of the hydrological cycle over land. In addition, the mean monthly deviations of the surface energy fluxes from ERA data are computed. Atmospheric moisture fluxes from ERA are compared with those of one model to provide an independent estimate of the convergence bias derived from the observed data. These help to add weight to some of the inferred estimates and explain some of the discrepancies between them. An evaluation of these biases and deviations suggests possible sources of error in each of the models. For the Danube catchment, systematic errors in the dynamics cause the prominent summer drying problem for three of the RCMs, while for the fourth RCM this is related to deficiencies in the land surface parametrization. The AGCM does not show this drying problem. For the Baltic Sea catchment, all models similarily overestimate the precipitation throughout the year except during the summer. This model deficit is probably caused by the internal model parametrizations, such as the large-scale condensation and the convection schemes.

Mechanisms linking volcanic aerosols to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

This study examines the sensitivity of the climate system to volcanic aerosol forcing in the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The main test case was based on the 1880s when there were several volcanic eruptions, the well-known Krakatau being the largest. These eruptions increased atmospheric aerosol concentrations and induced a period of global cooling surface temperatures. In this study, an ensemble of HadCM3 has been integrated with the standard set of radiative forcings and aerosols from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report simulations, from 1860 to present. A second ensemble removes the volcanic aerosols from 1880 to 1899. The all-forcings ensemble shows an attributable 1.2-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) increase in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 45°N—with a 0.04-PW increase in meridional heat transport at 40°N and increased northern Atlantic SSTs—starting around 1894, approximately 11 years after the first eruption, and lasting a further 10 years at least. The mechanisms responsible are traced to the Arctic, with suppression of the global water cycle (high-latitude precipitation), which leads to an increase in upper-level Arctic and Greenland Sea salinities. This then leads to increased convection in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas, enhanced Denmark Strait overflows, and AMOC changes with density anomalies traceable southward along the western Atlantic boundary. The authors investigate whether a similar response to the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 could still be ongoing, but do not find strong evidence.

Cloud-resolving model simulations with one- and two-way couplings via the weak temperature gradient approximation

A cloud-resolving model is modified to implement the weak temperature gradient approximation in order to simulate the interactions between tropical convection and the large-scale tropical circulation. The instantaneous domain-mean potential temperature is relaxed toward a reference profile obtained from a radiative–convective equilibrium simulation of the cloud-resolving model. For homogeneous surface conditions, the model state at equilibrium is a large-scale circulation with its descending branch in the simulated column. This is similar to the equilibrium state found in some other studies, but not all. For this model, the development of such a circulation is insensitive to the relaxation profile and the initial conditions. Two columns of the cloud-resolving model are fully coupled by relaxing the instantaneous domain-mean potential temperature in both columns toward each other. This configuration is energetically closed in contrast to the reference-column configuration. No mean large-scale circulation develops over homogeneous surface conditions, regardless of the relative area of the two columns. The sensitivity to nonuniform surface conditions is similar to that obtained in the reference-column configuration if the two simulated columns have very different areas, but it is markedly weaker for columns of comparable area. The weaker sensitivity can be understood as being a consequence of a formulation for which the energy budget is closed. The reference-column configuration has been used to study the convection in a local region under the influence of a large-scale circulation. The extension to a two-column configuration is proposed as a methodology for studying the influence on local convection of changes in remote convection.

Convective quasi–equilibrium

The concept of convective quasi–equilibrium (CQE) is a key ingredient in order to understand the role of deep moist convection in the atmosphere. It has been used as a guiding principle to develop almost all convective parameterizations and provides a basic theoretical framework for large–scale tropical dynamics. The CQE concept as originally proposed by Arakawa and Schubert [1974] is systematically reviewed from wider perspectives. Various interpretations and extensions of Arakawa and Schubert’s CQE are considered in terms of both a thermodynamic analogy and as a dynamical balance. The thermodynamic interpretations can be more emphatically embraced as a homeostasis. The dynamic balance interpretations can be best understood by analogy with the slow manifold. Various criticisms of CQE can be avoided by taking the dynamic balance interpretation. Possible limits of CQE are also discussed, including the importance of triggering in many convective situations, as well as the possible self–organized criticality of tropical convection. However, the most intriguing aspect of the CQE concept is that, in spite of many observational tests supporting and interpreting it in many different senses, it has 1never been established in a robust manner based on a systematic analysis of the cloud–work function budget by observations as was originally defined.

Drag produced by trapped lee waves and propagating mountain waves in a two-layer atmosphere

The surface drag force produced by trapped lee waves and upward propagating waves in non-hydrostatic stratified flow over a mountain ridge is explicitly calculated using linear theory for a two-layer atmosphere with piecewise-constant static stability and wind speed profiles. The behaviour of the drag normalized by its hydrostatic single-layer reference value is investigated as a function of the ratio of the Scorer parameters in the two layers l_2/l_1 and of the corresponding dimensionless interface height l_1 H, for selected values of the dimensionless ridge width l_1 a and ratio of wind speeds in the two layers. When l_2/l_1 → 1, the propagating wave drag approaches 1 in approximately hydrostatic conditions, and the trapped lee wave drag vanishes. As l_2/l_1 decreases, the propagating wave drag progressively displays an oscillatory behaviour with l_1 H, with maxima of increasing magnitude due to constructive interference of reflected waves in the lower layer. The trapped lee wave drag shows localized maxima associated with each resonant trapped lee wave mode, occurring for small l_2/l_1 and slightly higher values of l_1 H than the propagating wave drag maxima. As l1a decreases, i.e. the flow becomes more non-hydrostatic, the propagating wave drag decreases and the regions of non-zero trapped lee wave drag extend to higher l_2/l_1. These results are confirmed by numerical simulations for l_2/l_1 = 0.2. In parameter ranges of meteorological relevance, the trapped lee wave drag may have a magnitude comparable to that of propagating wave drag, and be larger than the reference single-layer drag. This may have implications for drag parametrization in global climate and weather-prediction models.

The influence of the QBO on the propagation of equatorial waves into the stratosphere

The variation of stratospheric equatorial wave characteristics with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is investigated using ECMWF Re-Analysis and NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The impact of the QBO phases on the upward propagation of equatorial waves is found to be consistent and significant. In the easterly phase, there is larger Kelvin wave amplitude but smaller westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) and n = 1 Rossby (R1) wave amplitude due to reduced propagation from the upper troposphere into the lower stratosphere, compared with the westerly phase. Differences in the wave amplitude exist in a deeper layer in summer than in winter, consistent with the seasonality of ambient zonal winds. There is a strong evidence of Kelvin wave amplitude peaking just below the descending westerly phase, suggesting that Kelvin waves act to bring the westerly phase downward. However, the corresponding evidence for WMRG and R1 waves is less clear. In the lower stratosphere there is zonal variation in equatorial waves. This reflects the zonal asymmetry of wave amplitudes in the upper troposphere, the source for the lower-stratospheric waves. In easterly winters the upper-tropospheric WMRG and R1 waves over the eastern Pacific region appear to be somewhat stronger compared to climatology, perhaps because of the accumulation of waves that are unable to propagate upward into the lower stratosphere. Vertical propagation features of these waves are generally consistent with theory and suggest a mixture of Doppler shifting by ambient flows and filtering. Some lower-stratosphere equatorial waves have a connection with preceding tropical convection, especially for Kelvin and R1 waves in winter.

Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model

The mechanisms involved in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) decadal variability and predictability over the last 50 years are analysed in the IPSL–CM5A–LR model using historical and initialised simulations. The initialisation procedure only uses nudging towards sea surface temperature anomalies with a physically based restoring coefficient. When compared to two independent AMOC reconstructions, both the historical and nudged ensemble simulations exhibit skill at reproducing AMOC variations from 1977 onwards, and in particular two maxima occurring respectively around 1978 and 1997. We argue that one source of skill is related to the large Mount Agung volcanic eruption starting in 1963, which reset an internal 20-year variability cycle in the North Atlantic in the model. This cycle involves the East Greenland Current intensity, and advection of active tracers along the subpolar gyre, which leads to an AMOC maximum around 15 years after the Mount Agung eruption. The 1997 maximum occurs approximately 20 years after the former one. The nudged simulations better reproduce this second maximum than the historical simulations. This is due to the initialisation of a cooling of the convection sites in the 1980s under the effect of a persistent North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) positive phase, a feature not captured in the historical simulations. Hence we argue that the 20-year cycle excited by the 1963 Mount Agung eruption together with the NAO forcing both contributed to the 1990s AMOC maximum. These results support the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic in the observations. Hindcasts following the CMIP5 protocol are launched from a nudged simulation every 5 years for the 1960–2005 period. They exhibit significant correlation skill score as compared to an independent reconstruction of the AMOC from 4-year lead-time average. This encouraging result is accompanied by increased correlation skills in reproducing the observed 2-m air temperature in the bordering regions of the North Atlantic as compared to non-initialized simulations. To a lesser extent, predicted precipitation tends to correlate with the nudged simulation in the tropical Atlantic. We argue that this skill is due to the initialisation and predictability of the AMOC in the present prediction system. The mechanisms evidenced here support the idea of volcanic eruptions as a pacemaker for internal variability of the AMOC. Together with the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic they propose a novel and complementary explanation for the AMOC variations over the last 50 years.

Effect of mountain breeze in ventilating the city under calm and neutral atmospheric environment: Interaction of airflow structures and ventilation efficiency

Many modern cities locate in the mountainous areas, like Hong Kong, Phoenix City and Los Angles. It is confirmed in the literature that the mountain wind system developed by differential heating or cooling can be very beneficial in ventilating the city nearby and alleviating the UHI effect. However, the direct interaction of mountain wind with the natural-convection circulation due to heated urban surfaces has not been studied, to our best knowledge. This kind of unique interaction of two kinds of airflow structures under calm and neutral atmospheric environment is investigated in this paper by CFD approach. A physical model comprising a simple mountain and three long building blocks (forming two street canyons) is firstly developed. Different airflow structures are identified within the conditions of different mountain-building height ratios (R=Hm/Hb) by varying building height but fixing mountain height. It is found that the higher ventilation rate in the street canyons is expected in the cases of smaller mountain-building ratios, indicating the stronger natural convection due to increasing heated building surfaces. However, there is the highest air change rate (ACH) in the lowest-building-height case and most of the air is advective into the street canyon through the top open area, highlighting the important role played by the mountain wind. In terms of the ventilation efficiency, it is shown that the smallest R case enjoys the best air change efficiency followed by the highest R case, while the worst ventilative street canyons occur at the middle R case. In the end, a gap across the streets is introduced in the modeling. The existence of the gap can greatly channel the mountain wind and distribute the air into streets nearby. Thus the ACH can be doubled and air quality can be significantly improved.

Tropical-extratropical interactions over Southern Africa: three cases of heavy summer season rainfall

The synoptic evolution of three tropical–extratropical (TE) interactions, each responsible for extreme rainfall events over southern Africa, is discussed in detail. Along with the consideration of previously studied events, common features of these heavy rainfall producing tropical temperate troughs (TTTs) over southern Africa are discussed. It is found that 2 days prior to an event, northeasterly moisture transports across Botswana, set up by the Angola low, are diverted farther south into the semiarid region of subtropical southern Africa. The TTTs reach full maturity as a TE cloud band, rooted in the central subcontinent, which is triggered by upper-level divergence along the leading edge of an upper-tropospheric westerly wave trough. Convection and rainfall within the cloud band is supported by poleward moisture transports with subtropical air rising as it leaves the continent and joins the midlatitude westerly flow. It is shown that these systems fit within a theoretical framework describing similar TE interactions found globally. Uplift forcing for the extreme rainfall of each event is investigated. Unsurprisingly, quasigeostrophic uplift is found to dominate in the midlatitudes with convective processes strongest in the subtropics. Rainfall in the semiarid interior of South Africa appears to be a result of quasigeostrophically triggered convection. Investigation of TTT formation in the context of planetary waves shows that early development is sometimes associated with previous anticyclonic wave breaking south of the subcontinent, with full maturity of TTTs occurring as a potential vorticity trough approaches the continent from the west. Sensitivity to upstream wave perturbations and effects on anticyclonic wave breaking in the South Indian Ocean are also observed.

The large-scale circulation change at the end of the Baiu season in Japan as seen in ERA40 data

The time evolution of the circulation change at the end of the Baiu season is investigated using ERA40 data. An end-day is defined for each of the 23 years based on the 850 hPa θe value at 40˚Nin the 130-140˚E sector exceeding 330 K. Daily time series of variables are composited with respect to this day. These composite time-series exhibit a clearer and more rapid change in the precipitation and the large-scale circulation over the whole East Asia region than those performed using calendar days. The precipitation change includes the abrupt end of the Baiu rain, the northward shift of tropical convection perhaps starting a few days before this, and the start of the heavier rain at higher latitudes. The northward migration of lower tropospheric warm, moist tropical air, a general feature of the seasonal march in the region, is fast over the continent and slow over the ocean. By mid to late July the cooler air over the Sea of Japan is surrounded on 3 sides by the tropical air. It is suggestive that the large-scale stage has been set for a jump to the post-Baiu state, i.e., for the end of the Baiu season. Two likely triggers for the actual change emerge from the analysis. The first is the northward movement of tropical convection into the Philippine region. The second is an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave-train, that over a 10-day period develops downstream across Eurasia. It appears likely that in most years one or both mechanisms can be important in triggering the actual end of the Baiu season.

The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century

The boreal summer Asian monsoon has been evaluated in 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) and 22 CMIP3 GCM simulations of the late 20th Century. Diagnostics and skill metrics have been calculated to assess the time-mean, climatological annual cycle, interannual variability, and intraseasonal variability. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects of the monsoon, though there is no single model that best represents all of these aspects of the monsoon. The CMIP5 multi-model mean (MMM) is more skillful than the CMIP3 MMM for all diagnostics in terms of the skill of simulating pattern correlations with respect to observations. Additionally, for rainfall/convection the MMM outperforms the individual models for the time mean, the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon, and intraseasonal variability. The pattern correlation of the time (pentad) of monsoon peak and withdrawal is better simulated than that of monsoon onset. The onset of the monsoon over India is typically too late in the models. The extension of the monsoon over eastern China, Korea, and Japan is underestimated, while it is overestimated over the subtropical western/central Pacific Ocean. The anti-correlation between anomalies of all-India rainfall and Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature is overly strong in CMIP3 and typically too weak in CMIP5. For both the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection and the East Asian zonal wind-rainfall teleconnection, the MMM interannual rainfall anomalies are weak compared to observations. Though simulation of intraseasonal variability remains problematic, several models show improved skill at representing the northward propagation of convection and the development of the tilted band of convection that extends from India to the equatorial west Pacific. The MMM also well represents the space-time evolution of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies. Caution is necessary when using GPCP and CMAP rainfall to validate (1) the time-mean rainfall, as there are systematic differences over ocean and land between these two data sets, and (2) the timing of monsoon withdrawal over India, where the smooth southward progression seen in India Meteorological Department data is better realized in CMAP data compared to GPCP data.

The long-term stability of a possible aqueous ammonium sulfate ocean inside Titan

We model the thermal evolution of a subsurface ocean of aqueous ammonium sulfate inside Titan using a parameterized convection scheme. The cooling and crystallization of such an ocean depends on its heat flux balance, and is governed by the pressure-dependent melting temperatures at the top and bottom of the ocean. Using recent observations and previous experimental data, we present a nominal model which predicts the thickness of the ocean throughout the evolution of Titan; after 4.5 Ga we expect an aqueous ammonium sulfate ocean 56 km thick, overlain by a thick (176 km) heterogeneous crust of methane clathrate, ice I and ammonium sulfate. Underplating of the crust by ice I will give rise to compositional diapirs that are capable of rising through the crust and providing a mechanism for cryovolcanism at the surface. We have conducted a parameter space survey to account for possible variations in the nominal model, and find that for a wide range of plausible conditions, an ocean of aqueous ammonium sulfate can survive to the present day, which is consistent with the recent observations of Titan's spin state from Cassini radar data [Lorenz, R.D., Stiles, B.W., Kirk, R.L., Allison, M.D., del Marmo, P.P., Iess, L., Lunine, J.I., Ostro, S.J., Hensley, S., 2008. Science 319, 1649–1651].

Diabatic processes modifying potential vorticity in a North Atlantic cyclone

Potential vorticity (PV) succinctly describes the evolution of large-scale atmospheric flow because of its material conservation and invertibility properties. However, diabatic processes in extratropical cyclones can modify PV and influence both mesoscale weather and the evolution of the synoptic-scale wave pattern. In this investigation, modification of PV by diabatic processes is diagnosed in a Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulation of a North Atlantic cyclone using a set of PV tracers. The structure of diabatic PV within the extratropical cyclone is investigated and linked to the processes responsible for it. On the mesoscale, a tripole of diabatic PV is generated across the tropopause fold extending down to the cold front. The structure results from a dipole in heating across the frontal interface due to condensation in the warm conveyor belt flanking the upper side of the fold and evaporation of precipitation in the dry intrusion and below. On isentropic surfaces intersecting the tropopause, positive diabatic PV is generated on the stratospheric side, while negative diabatic PV is generated on the tropospheric side. The stratospheric diabatic PV is generated primarily by long-wave cooling which peaks at the tropopause itself due to the sharp gradient in humidity there. The tropospheric diabatic PV originates locally from the long-wave radiation and non-locally by advection out of the top of heating associated with the large-scale cloud, convection and boundary layer schemes. In most locations there is no diabatic modification of PV at the tropopause itself but diabatic PV anomalies would influence the tropopause indirectly through the winds they induce and subsequent advection. The consequences of this diabatic PV dipole for the evolution of synoptic-scale wave patterns are discussed.

Diagnosing atmosphere–land feedbacks in CMIP5 climate models

Human-made transformations to the environment, and in particular the land surface, are having a large impact on the distribution (in both time and space) of rainfall, upon which all life is reliant. Focusing on precipitation, soil moisture and near-surface temperature, we compare data from Phase 5 of the Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), as well as blended observational–satellite data, to see how the interaction between rainfall and the land surface differs (or agrees) between the models and reality, at daily timescales. As expected, the results suggest a strong positive relationship between precipitation and soil moisture when precipitation leads and is concurrent with soil moisture estimates, for the tropics as a whole. Conversely a negative relationship is shown when soil moisture leads rainfall by a day or more. A weak positive relationship between precipitation and temperature is shown when either leads by one day, whereas a weak negative relationship is shown over the same time period between soil moisture and temperature. Temporally, in terms of lag and lead relationships, the models appear to be in agreement on the overall patterns of correlation between rainfall and soil moisture. However, in terms of spatial patterns, a comparison of these relationships across all available models reveals considerable variability in the ability of the models to reproduce the correlations between precipitation and soil moisture. There is also a difference in the timings of the correlations, with some models showing the highest positive correlations when precipitation leads soil moisture by one day. Finally, the results suggest that there are 'hotspots' of high linear gradients between precipitation and soil moisture, corresponding to regions experiencing heavy rainfall. These results point to an inability of the CMIP5 models to simulate a positive feedback between soil moisture and precipitation at daily timescales. Longer timescale comparisons and experiments at higher spatial resolutions, where the impact of the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall on the initiation of convection and supply of moisture is included, would be expected to improve process understanding further.