The three faces of bounded reliability: Alfred Chandler and the micro-foundations of management theory

Alfred Chandler, the celebrated business historian, provided detailed descriptions of the reasons for failed human commitments and the managerial tools needed to prevent/remediate such failings in the context of large business firms. Chandler's historical narrative identifies three distinct “faces” of bounded reliability—opportunism, benevolent preference reversal, and identity-based discordance—as the main drivers of commitment failure. Adopting bounded reliability (BRel) as a micro-foundation in management studies will raise the quality and relevance of scholarly recommendations to improve managerial decision making and action, because analysis of BRel challenges closely mirrors the real-world problems facing practicing managers.

A review of drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia

The Middle East and Southwest Asia comprise a region that is water-stressed, societally vulnerable, and prone to severe droughts. Large-scale climate variability, particularly La Niña, appears to play an important role in region-wide drought, including the two most severe of the last fifty years—1999-2001 and 2007-2008—with implications for drought forecasting. Important dynamical factors include orography, thermodynamic influence on vertical motion, storm track changes, and moisture transport. Vegetation in the region is strongly impacted by drought and may provide an important feedback mechanism. In future projections, drying of the eastern Mediterranean is a robust feature, as are temperature increases throughout the region, which will affect evaporation and the timing and intensity of snowmelt. Vegetation feedbacks may become more important in a warming climate. There are a wide range of outstanding issues for understanding, monitoring, and predicting drought in the region, including: dynamics of the regional storm track, the relative importance of the range of dynamical mechanisms related to drought, regional coherence of drought, the relationship between synoptic-scale mechanisms and drought, predictability of vegetation and crop yields, stability of remote influences, data uncertainty, and the role of temperature. Development of a regional framework for cooperative work and dissemination of information and existing forecasts would speed understanding and make better use of available information.

Observational evidence for a negative shortwave cloud feedback in middle to high latitudes

Exploiting the observed robust relationships between temperature and optical depth in extratropical clouds, we calculate the shortwave cloud feedback from historical data, by regressing observed and modeled cloud property histograms onto local temperature in middle to high southern latitudes. In this region, all CMIP5 models and observational data sets predict a negative cloud feedback, mainly driven by optical thickening. Between 45° and 60°S, the mean observed shortwave feedback (−0.91 ± 0.82 W m−2 K−1, relative to local rather than global mean warming) is very close to the multimodel mean feedback in RCP8.5 (−0.98 W m−2 K−1), despite differences in the meridional structure. In models, historical temperature-cloud property relationships reliably predict the forced RCP8.5 response. Because simple theory predicts this optical thickening with warming, and cloud amount changes are relatively small, we conclude that the shortwave cloud feedback is very likely negative in the real world at middle to high latitudes.