The role of oceans and sea ice in abrupt transitions between multiple climate states

The coupled climate dynamics underlying large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in ice cover are studied. A global atmosphere–ocean–sea ice general circulation model with idealized aquaplanet geometry is forced by gradual multi-millennial variations in solar luminosity. The model traverses a hysteresis loop between warm ice-free conditions and cold glacial conditions in response to ±5 W m−2 variations in global, annual-mean insolation. Comparison of several model configurations confirms the importance of polar ocean processes in setting the sensitivity and time scales of the transitions. A “sawtooth” character is found with faster warming and slower cooling, reflecting the opposing effects of surface heating and cooling on upper-ocean buoyancy and, thus, effective heat capacity. The transition from a glacial to warm, equable climate occurs in about 200 years. In contrast to the “freshwater hosing” scenario, transitions are driven by radiative forcing and sea ice feedbacks. The ocean circulation, and notably the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), does not drive the climate change. The MOC (and associated heat transport) collapses poleward of the advancing ice edge, but this is a purely passive response to cooling and ice expansion. The MOC does, however, play a key role in setting the time scales of the transition and contributes to the asymmetry between warming and cooling.

Controlling spurious diapycnal mixing in eddy-resolving height-coordinate ocean models: insights from virtual deliberate tracer release experiments

A perceived limitation of z-coordinate models associated with spurious diapycnal mixing in eddying, frontal flow, can be readily addressed through appropriate attention to the tracer advection schemes employed. It is demonstrated that tracer advection schemes developed by Prather and collaborators for application in the stratosphere, greatly improve the fidelity of eddying flows, reducing levels of spurious diapycnal mixing to below those directly measured in field experiments, ∼1 × 10−5 m2 s−1. This approach yields a model in which geostrophic eddies are quasi-adiabatic in the ocean interior, so that the residual-mean overturning circulation aligns almost perfectly with density contours. A reentrant channel configuration of the MIT General Circulation Model, that approximates the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is used to examine these issues. Virtual analogs of ocean deliberate tracer release field experiments reinforce our conclusion, producing passive tracer solutions that parallel field experiments remarkably well.

Centennial-scale climate change in Ireland during the Holocene

We examine mid- to late Holocene centennial-scale climate variability in Ireland using proxy data from peatlands, lakes and a speleothem. A high degree of between-record variability is apparent in the proxy data and significant chronological uncertainties are present. However, tephra layers provide a robust tool for correlation and improve the chronological precision of the records. Although we can find no statistically significant coherence in the dataset as a whole, a selection of high-quality peatland water table reconstructions co-vary more than would be expected by chance alone. A locally weighted regression model with bootstrapping can be used to construct a ‘best-estimate’ palaeoclimatic reconstruction from these datasets. Visual comparison and cross-wavelet analysis of peatland water table compilations from Ireland and Northern Britain show that there are some periods of coherence between these records. Some terrestrial palaeoclimatic changes in Ireland appear to coincide with changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and solar activity. However, these relationships are inconsistent and may be obscured by chronological uncertainties. We conclude by suggesting an agenda for future Holocene climate research in Ireland.

Ensemble transform Kalman-Bucy filters

Two recent works have adapted the Kalman–Bucy filter into an ensemble setting. In the first formulation, the ensemble of perturbations is updated by the solution of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) in pseudo-time, while the mean is updated as in the standard Kalman filter. In the second formulation, the full ensemble is updated in the analysis step as the solution of single set of ODEs in pseudo-time. Neither requires matrix inversions except for the frequently diagonal observation error covariance. We analyse the behaviour of the ODEs involved in these formulations. We demonstrate that they stiffen for large magnitudes of the ratio of background error to observational error variance, and that using the integration scheme proposed in both formulations can lead to failure. A numerical integration scheme that is both stable and is not computationally expensive is proposed. We develop transform-based alternatives for these Bucy-type approaches so that the integrations are computed in ensemble space where the variables are weights (of dimension equal to the ensemble size) rather than model variables. Finally, the performance of our ensemble transform Kalman–Bucy implementations is evaluated using three models: the 3-variable Lorenz 1963 model, the 40-variable Lorenz 1996 model, and a medium complexity atmospheric general circulation model known as SPEEDY. The results from all three models are encouraging and warrant further exploration of these assimilation techniques.

The role of horizontal resolution in simulating drivers of the global hydrological cycle

The role of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) horizontal resolution in representing the global energy budget and hydrological cycle is assessed, with the aim of improving the understanding of model uncertainties in simulating the hydrological cycle. We use two AGCMs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre: HadGEM1-A at resolutions ranging from 270 to 60 km, and HadGEM3-A ranging from 135 to 25 km. The models exhibit a stable hydrological cycle, although too intense compared to reanalyses and observations. This over-intensity is explained by excess surface shortwave radiation, a common error in general circulation models (GCMs). This result is insensitive to resolution. However, as resolution is increased, precipitation decreases over the ocean and increases over the land. This is associated with an increase in atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land, which changes the partitioning of moisture fluxes that contribute to precipitation over land from less local to more non-local moisture sources. The results start to converge at 60-km resolution, which underlines the excessive reliance of the mean hydrological cycle on physical parametrization (local unresolved processes) versus model dynamics (large-scale resolved processes) in coarser HadGEM1 and HadGEM3 GCMs. This finding may be valid for other GCMs, showing the necessity to analyze other chains of GCMs that may become available in the future with such a range of horizontal resolutions. Our finding supports the hypothesis that heterogeneity in model parametrization is one of the underlying causes of model disagreement in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises.

Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models

This paper aims to understand the physical processes causing the large spread in the storm track projections of the CMIP5 climate models. In particular, the relationship between the climate change responses of the storm tracks, as measured by the 2–6 day mean sea level pressure variance, and the equator-to-pole temperature differences at upper- and lower-tropospheric levels is investigated. In the southern hemisphere the responses of the upper- and lower-tropospheric temperature differences are correlated across the models and as a result they share similar associations with the storm track responses. There are large regions in which the storm track responses are correlated with the temperature difference responses, and a simple linear regression model based on the temperature differences at either level captures the spatial pattern of the mean storm track response as well explaining between 30 and 60 % of the inter-model variance of the storm track responses. In the northern hemisphere the responses of the two temperature differences are not significantly correlated and their associations with the storm track responses are more complicated. In summer, the responses of the lower-tropospheric temperature differences dominate the inter-model spread of the storm track responses. In winter, the responses of the upper- and lower-temperature differences both play a role. The results suggest that there is potential to reduce the spread in storm track responses by constraining the relative magnitudes of the warming in the tropical and polar regions.