Easterly wave disturbances over Northeast Brazil: an observational analysis

This paper aims to identify the circulation associated with Easterly Wave Disturbances (EWDs) that propagate toward the Eastern Northeast Brazil (ENEB) and their impact on the rainfall over ENEB during 2006 and 2007 rainy seasons (April–July). The EWDs identification and trajectory are analyzed using an automatic tracking technique (TracKH). The EWDs circulation patterns and their main features were obtained using the composite technique. To evaluate the TracKH efficiency, a validation was done by comparing the EWDs number tracked against observed cases obtained from an observational analysis. The mean characteristics of EWDs are 5.5-day period, propagation speed of ~9.5 m·s−1, and a 4500 km wavelength. A synoptic analysis shows that between days −2 d and 0 d, the low level winds presented cyclonic relative vorticity and convergence anomalies both in 2006 and 2007. The EWDs signals are strongest at low levels. The EWDs propagation is associated with relative humidity and precipitation positive anomalies and OLR and omega negative anomalies. The EWDs tracks are seen over all ENEB and their lysis occurs between the ENEB and marginally inside the continent. The tracking captured 71% of EWDs in all periods, indicating that an objective analysis is a promising method for EWDs detection.

Raising the roof

The atmosphere’s lowermost 10 km have long been assumed to be almost solely responsible for weather and climate on Earth. Emerging evidence points to the layer above as an important influence on surface winds and temperatures on seasonal to decadal timescales.

The interaction of moist convection and mid-level dry air in the advance of the onset of the Indian monsoon

The advance of the onset of the Indian monsoon is here explained in terms of a balance between the low-level monsoon flow and an over-running intrusion of mid-tropospheric dry air. The monsoon advances, over a period of about 6 weeks, from the south of the country to the northwest. Given that the low-level monsoon winds are westerly or southwesterly, and the midlevel winds northwesterly, the monsoon onset propagates upwind relative to midlevel flow, and perpendicular to the low-level flow, and is not directly caused by moisture flux toward the northwest. Lacking a conceptual model for the advance means that it has been hard to understand and correct known biases in weather and climate prediction models. The mid-level northwesterlies form a wedge of dry air that is deep in the far northwest of India and over-runs the monsoon flow. The dry layer is moistened from below by shallow cumulus and congestus clouds, so that the profile becomes much closer to moist adiabatic, and the dry layer is much shallower in the vertical, toward the southeast of India. The profiles associated with this dry air show how the most favourable environment for deep convection occurs in the south, and onset occurs here first. As the onset advances across India, the advection of moisture from the Arabian Sea becomes stronger, and the mid-level dry air is increasingly moistened from below. This increased moistening makes the wedge of dry air shallower throughout its horizontal extent, and forces the northern limit of moist convection to move toward the northwest. Wetting of the land surface by rainfall will further reinforce the north-westward progression, by sustaining the supply of boundary layer moisture and shallow cumulus. The local advance of the monsoon onset is coincident with weakening of the mid-level northwesterlies, and therefore weakened mid-level dry advection.

Improving a global model from the boundary layer: total turbulent energy and the neutral limit Prandtl number

Model intercomparisons have identified important deficits in the representation of the stable boundary layer by turbulence parametrizations used in current weather and climate models. However, detrimental impacts of more realistic schemes on the large-scale flow have hindered progress in this area. Here we implement a total turbulent energy scheme into the climate model ECHAM6. The total turbulent energy scheme considers the effects of Earth’s rotation and static stability on the turbulence length scale. In contrast to the previously used turbulence scheme, the TTE scheme also implicitly represents entrainment flux in a dry convective boundary layer. Reducing the previously exaggerated surface drag in stable boundary layers indeed causes an increase in southern hemispheric zonal winds and large-scale pressure gradients beyond observed values. These biases can be largely removed by increasing the parametrized orographic drag. Reducing the neutral limit turbulent Prandtl number warms and moistens low-latitude boundary layers and acts to reduce longstanding radiation biases in the stratocumulus regions, the Southern Ocean and the equatorial cold tongue that are common to many climate models.

On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere

A strong correlation between the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell is found to exist in the Southern Hemisphere, both in reanalysis data and in twenty-first-century integrations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report multimodel archive. Analysis of the space–time spectra of eddy momentum flux reveals that variations in eddy-driven jet speed are related to changes in the mean phase speed of midlatitude eddies. An increase in eddy phase speeds induces a poleward shift of the critical latitudes and a poleward expansion of the region of subtropical wave breaking. The associated changes in eddy momentum flux convergence are balanced by anomalous meridional winds consistent with a wider Hadley cell. At the same time, faster eddies are also associated with a strengthened poleward eddy momentum flux, sustaining a stronger westerly jet in midlatitudes. The proposed mechanism is consistent with the seasonal dependence of the interannual variability of the Hadley cell width and appears to explain at least part of the projected twenty-first-century trends.

Robust future changes in temperature variability under greenhouse gas forcing and the relationship with thermal advection

Recent temperature extremes have highlighted the importance of assessing projected changes in the variability of temperature as well as the mean. A large fraction of present day temperature variance is associated with thermal advection, as anomalous winds blow across the land-sea temperature contrast for instance. Models project robust heterogeneity in the 21st century warming pattern under greenhouse gas forcing, resulting in land-sea temperature contrasts increasing in summer and decreasing in winter, and the pole-to-equator temperature gradient weakening in winter. In this study, future monthly variability changes in the 17 member ensemble ESSENCE are assessed. In winter, variability in midlatitudes decreases while in very high latitudes and the tropics it increases. In summer, variability increases over most land areas and in the tropics, with decreasing variability in high latitude oceans. Multiple regression analysis is used to determine the contributions to variability changes from changing temperature gradients and circulation patterns. Thermal advection is found to be of particular importance in the northern hemisphere winter midlatitudes, where the change in mean state temperature gradients alone could account for over half the projected changes. Changes in thermal advection are also found to be important in summer in Europe and coastal areas, although less so than in winter. Comparison with CMIP5 data shows that the midlatitude changes in variability are robust across large regions, particularly high northern latitudes in winter and mid northern latitudes in summer.

A sodar for profiling in a spatially inhomogeneous urban environment

The urban boundary layer, above the canopy, is still poorly understood. One of the challenges is obtaining data by sampling more than a few meters above the rooftops, given the spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in both horizontal and vertical. Sodars are generally useful tools for ground-based remote sensing of winds and turbulence, but rely on horizontal homogeneity (as do lidars) in building up 3-component wind vectors from sampling three or more spatially separated volumes. The time taken for sound to travel to a typical range of 200 m and back is also a limitation. A sodar of radically different design is investigated, aimed at addressing these problems. It has a single vertical transmitted sound pulse. Doppler shifted signals are received from a number of volumes around the periphery of the transmitted beam with microphones which each having tight angular sensitivity at zenith angles slightly off-vertical. The spatial spread of sampled volumes is therefore smaller. By having more receiver microphones than a conventional sodar, the effect of smaller zenith angle is offset. More rapid profiling is also possible with a single vertical transmitted beam, instead of the usual multiple beams.A prototype design is described, together with initial field measurements. It is found that the beam forming using a single dish antenna and the drift of the sound pulse downwind both give rise to reduced performance compared with expectations. It is concluded that, while the new sodar works in principle, the compromises arising in the design mean that the expected advantages have not been realized

An assessment of air-sea heat fluxes from ocean and coupled reanalyses

Sixteen monthly air–sea heat flux products from global ocean/coupled reanalyses are compared over 1993–2009 as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP). Objectives include assessing the global heat closure, the consistency of temporal variability, comparison with other flux products, and documenting errors against in situ flux measurements at a number of OceanSITES moorings. The ensemble of 16 ORA-IP flux estimates has a global positive bias over 1993–2009 of 4.2 ± 1.1 W m−2. Residual heat gain (i.e., surface flux + assimilation increments) is reduced to a small positive imbalance (typically, +1–2 W m−2). This compensation between surface fluxes and assimilation increments is concentrated in the upper 100 m. Implied steady meridional heat transports also improve by including assimilation sources, except near the equator. The ensemble spread in surface heat fluxes is dominated by turbulent fluxes (>40 W m−2 over the western boundary currents). The mean seasonal cycle is highly consistent, with variability between products mostly <10 W m−2. The interannual variability has consistent signal-to-noise ratio (~2) throughout the equatorial Pacific, reflecting ENSO variability. Comparisons at tropical buoy sites (10°S–15°N) over 2007–2009 showed too little ocean heat gain (i.e., flux into the ocean) in ORA-IP (up to 1/3 smaller than buoy measurements) primarily due to latent heat flux errors in ORA-IP. Comparisons with the Stratus buoy (20°S, 85°W) over a longer period, 2001–2009, also show the ORA-IP ensemble has 16 W m−2 smaller net heat gain, nearly all of which is due to too much latent cooling caused by differences in surface winds imposed in ORA-IP.

Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model

Medicanes or “Mediterranean hurricanes” represent a rare and physically unique type of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclone. There are similarities with tropical cyclones with regard to their development (based on the thermodynamical disequilibrium between the warm sea and the overlying troposphere) and their kinematic and thermodynamical properties (medicanes are intense vortices with a warm core and even a cloud-free eye). Although medicanes are smaller and their wind speeds are lower than in tropical cyclones, the severity of their winds can cause substantial damage to islands and coastal areas. Concern about how human-induced climate change will affect extreme events is increasing. This includes the future impacts on medicanes due to the warming of the Mediterranean waters and the projected changes in regional atmospheric circulation. However, most global climate models do not have high enough spatial resolution to adequately represent small features such as medicanes. In this study, a cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to high resolution global climate model data with a horizontal grid resolution of approximately 25 km over the Mediterranean region. After a validation of the climatology of general Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones, changes in medicanes are determined using climate model experiments with present and future forcing. The magnitude of the changes in the winds, frequency and location of medicanes is assessed. While no significant changes in the total number of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones are found, medicanes tend to decrease in number but increase in intensity. The model simulation suggests that medicanes tend to form more frequently in the Gulf of Lion–Genoa and South of Sicily.

The TIGGE project and its achievements

TIGGE was a major component of the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact weather. By providing ensemble prediction data from leading operational forecast centers, TIGGE has enhanced collaboration between the research and operational meteorological communities and enabled research studies on a wide range of topics. The paper covers the objective evaluation of the TIGGE data. For a range of forecast parameters, it is shown to be beneficial to combine ensembles from several data providers in a Multi-model Grand Ensemble. Alternative methods to correct systematic errors, including the use of reforecast data, are also discussed. TIGGE data have been used for a range of research studies on predictability and dynamical processes. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems in the world, and are a focus of multi-model ensemble research. Their extra-tropical transition also has a major impact on skill of mid-latitude forecasts. We also review how TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of extra-tropical cyclones and storm tracks. Although TIGGE is a research project, it has proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. Finally the paper considers the legacy of TIGGE. We discuss the priorities and key issues in predictability and ensemble forecasting, including the new opportunities of convective-scale ensembles, links with ensemble data assimilation methods, and extension of the range of useful forecast skill.

Scale interactions between the MJO and the western maritime continent

State-of-the-art regional climate model simulations that are able to resolve key mesoscale circulations are used, for the first time, to understand the interaction between the large-scale convective environment of the MJO and processes governing the strong diurnal cycle over the islands of the Maritime Continent (MC). Convection is sustained in the late afternoon just inland of the coasts due to sea breeze convergence. Previous work has shown that the variability in MC rainfall associated with the MJO is manifested in changes to this diurnal cycle; land-based rainfall peaks before the active convective envelope of the MJO reaches the MC, whereas oceanic rainfall rates peak whilst the active envelope resides over the region. The model simulations show that the main controls on oceanic MC rainfall in the early active MJO phases are the large-scale environment and atmospheric stability, followed by high oceanic latent heat flux forced by high near-surface winds in the later active MJO phases. Over land, rainfall peaks before the main convective envelope arrives (in agreement with observations), even though the large-scale convective environment is only moderately favourable for convection. The causes of this early rainfall peak are convective triggers from land-sea breeze circulations that are strong due to high surface insolation and surface heating. During the peak MJO phases cloud cover increases and surface insolation decreases, which weakens the strength of the mesoscale circulations and reduces land-based rainfall, even though the large-scale environment remains favourable for convection at this time. Hence, scale interactions are an essential part of the MJO transition across the MC.

Characterisation of convective regimes over the British Isles

Convection-permitting modelling has led to a step change in forecasting convective events. However, convection occurs within different regimes which exhibit different forecast behaviour. A convective adjustment timescale can be used to distinguish between these regimes and examine their associated predictability. The convective adjustment timescale is calculated from radiosonde ascents and found to be consistent with that derived from convection-permitting model forecasts. The model-derived convective adjustment timescale is then examined for three summers in the British Isles to determine characteristics of the convective regimes for this maritime region. Convection in the British Isles is predominantly in convective quasi-equilibrium with 85%of convection having a timescale less than or equal to three hours. This percentage varies spatially with more non-equilibriumevents occurring in the south and southwest. The convective adjustment timescale exhibits a diurnal cycle over land. The nonequilibrium regime occurs more frequently at mid-range wind speeds and with winds from southerly to westerly sectors. Most non-equilibrium convective events in the British Isles are initiated near large coastal orographic gradients or on the European continent. Thus, the convective adjustment timescale is greatest when the location being examined is immediately downstream of large orographic gradients and decreases with distance from the convective initiation region. The dominance of convective quasiequilibrium conditions over the British Isles argues for the use of large-member ensembles in probabilistic forecasts for this region.

Transatlantic flight times and climate change

Aircraft do not fly through a vacuum, but through an atmosphere whose meteorological characteristics are changing because of global warming. The impacts of aviation on climate change have long been recognised, but the impacts of climate change on aviation have only recently begun to emerge. These impacts include intensified turbulence and increased take-off weight restrictions. Here we investigate the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times. We feed synthetic atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. We focus on transatlantic flights between London and New York, and how they change when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. We find that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5 h 20 min and over 7 h 00 min, respectively. For reasons that are explained using a conceptual model, the eastbound shortening and westbound lengthening do not cancel out, causing round-trip journey times to increase. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, the extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft will collectively be airborne for an extra 2000 h each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US$ 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of 7100 average British homes. Our results provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change.

Impact of a Fram Strait cyclone on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration: Possibilities and limits of an observational analysis

This study aims at the determination of a Fram Strait cyclone track and of the cyclone’s impact on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration. A 24 h period on 13–14 March 2002 framed by two RADARSAT images is analyzed. Data are included from autonomous ice buoys, a research vessel, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and QuikSCAT satellite, and the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. During this 24 h period the cyclone moved northward along the western ice edge in the Fram Strait, crossed the northern ice edge, made a left-turn loop with 150 km diameter over the sea ice, and returned to the northern ice edge. The ECMWF analysis places the cyclone track 100 km too far west over the sea ice, a deviation which is too large for representative sea ice simulations. On the east side of the northward moving cyclone, the ice edge was pushed northward by 55 km because of strong winds. On the rear side, the ice edge advanced toward the open water but by a smaller distance because of weaker winds there. The ice drift pattern as calculated from the ice buoys and the two RADARSAT images is cyclonically curved around the center of the cyclone loop. Ice drift divergence shows a spatial pattern with divergence in the loop center and a zone of convergence around. Ice concentration changes as retrieved from SSM/I data follow the divergence pattern such that sea ice concentration increased in areas of divergence and decreased in areas of convergence.

In situ observations in cyclones over Fram Strait

During the international FRAMZY expedition in March 2002 in-situ observations of Fram Strait cyclones were made by aircraft, ship and automatic buoys in order to study the interaction between cyclones and sea ice. The atmospheric characteristics of the observed cyclones are presented in this paper. The cyclones were generated in the baroclinic zone at the ice edge and moved NNE-ward along the ice edge. This was supported by warm air advection from WSW by an upper-level wave. The cyclones were rather small (diameter 200– 700 km) and shallow (1–1.5 km e-folding height for the horizontal pressure and temperature difference) with life times between 12 and 36 hours. In spite of the small space and time scales, remarkable extremes were observed within the cyclones. Winds reached maxima above 20 ms−1 lasting for only a few hours. The transition from the cold to the advancing warm air over sea ice occurred within narrow (5–30 km) frontal zones in which vorticity and convergence reached maxima on the order of 10−3 s−1. It is discussed whether the sea ice in spite of its inertia is able to react on these strong sub cyclone-scale processes and, thus, these processes have to be taken into account in models in order to simulate the cyclone-sea ice interaction properly.