Introduction and the problems of weather interpretation

Numerical forecasts of the atmosphere based on the fundamental dynamical and thermodynamical equations have now been carried for almost 30 years. The very first models which were used were drastic simplifications of the governing equations and permitting only the prediction of the geostrophic wind in the middle of the troposphere based on the conservation of absolute vorticity. Since then we have seen a remarkable development in models predicting the large-scale synoptic flow. Verification carried out at NMC Washington indicates an improvement of about 40% in 24h forecasts for the 500mb geopotential since the end of the 1950’s. The most advanced models of today use the equations of motion in their more original form (i.e. primitive equations) which are better suited to predicting the atmosphere at low latitudes as well as small scale systems. The model which we have developed at the Centre, for instance, will be able to predict weather systems from a scale of 500-1000 km and a vertical extension of a few hundred millibars up to global weather systems extending through the whole depth of the atmosphere. With a grid resolution of 1.5 and 15 vertical levels and covering the whole globe it is possible to describe rather accurately the thermodynamical processes associated with cyclone development. It is further possible to incorporate sub-grid-scale processes such as radiation, exchange of sensible heat, release of latent heat etc. in order to predict the development of new weather systems and the decay of old ones. Later in this introduction I will exemplify this by showing some results of forecasts by the Centre’s model.

Community development in sustainable livelihoods approaches: an introduction

This article introduces sustainable livelihoods approaches, explaining what they are and how they have emerged. It examines how different organizations have taken up a sustainable livelihoods approach, and considers whether in so doing they have drawn on community development thinking and practice. It is found that community development is largely absent from sustainable livelihoods thinking and contended that part of the reason lies with the locally situated character of community development practice, which makes it difficult for externally driven sustainable livelihoods interventions to systematically incorporate community-level methods and practices. More fundamentally, sustainable livelihoods approaches embody a technocratic development drive, which is at odds with the principles, ethos and values that underpin much development work.

Linguistic interfaces and language acquisition in childhood: introduction to the special issue

Much contemporary L1 acquisition theory and empirical research are guided by the hypothesis that acquisition delays in children are often related to the integration of information across grammatical and other cognitive modules, such as syntax and discourse-pragmatics (see e.g., Grinstead, 2010). This special issue brings together cutting edge research from all relevant paradigms addressing interface issues in child language acquisition and provides a platform for the study of the interaction between different levels of linguistic knowledge. In this introduction, we present the reader with the tools needed to best understand the contributions of the individual studies and what they bring to bear on larger theoretical questions as a collective.

Introduction: some notes on the generative study of L3 acquisition.

This article serves as a state-of the-science review of the blossoming field of generative third language (L3) acquisition as well as an introduction to this special issue on the same topic. We present and argue for the relevance of adult L3/Ln acquisition for many perennial questions that have sat at the core of linguistic approaches to adult language acquisition since the Principles and Parameters framework was first adopted into second language acquisition (SLA; e.g. Flynn, 1985, 1987; Liceras, 1985; White, 1985a, 1985b; Schwartz, 1986). Furthermore, we highlight the unique, specific questions that have emerged from studying L3/Ln from a generative perspective thus far while suggesting refinements to these questions and additional ones that should emerge in future inquiry.

Introduction to politics of climate change: discourses of policy and practice in developing countries

This Themed Section aims to increase understanding of how the idea of climate change, and the policies and actions that spring from it, travel beyond their origins in natural sciences to meet different political arenas in the developing world. It takes a discursive approach whereby climate change is not just a set of physical processes but also a series of messages, narratives and policy prescriptions. The articles are mostly case study-based and focus on sub-Saharan Africa and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). They are organised around three interlinked themes. The first theme concerns the processes of rapid technicalisation and professionalisation of the climate change ‘industry’, which have sustantially narrowed the boundaries of what can be viewed as a legitimate social response to the problem of global warming. The second theme deals with the ideological effects of the climate change industry, which is ‘depoliticisation’, in this case the deflection of attention away from underlying political conditions of vulnerability and exploitation towards the nature of the physical hazard itself. The third theme concerns the institutional effects of an insufficiently socialised idea of climate change, which is the maintenance of existing relations of power or their reconfiguration in favour of the already powerful. Overall, the articles suggest that greater scrutiny of the discursive and political dimensions of mitigation and adaptation activities is required. In particular, greater attention should be directed towards the policy consequences that governments and donors construct as a result of their framing and rendition of climate change issues.

'Score it upon my taille': the use (and abuse) of tallies by the medieval Exchequer

The paper traces the evolution of the tally from a receipt for cash payments into the treasury, to proof of payments made by royal officials outside of the treasury and finally to an assignment of revenue to be paid out by royal officials. Each of these processes is illustrated by examples drawn from the Exchequer records and explains their significance for royal finance and for historians working on the Exchequer records.

Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems.

In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years. With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.