Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 1. correction of the sunspot number record since 1874

We analyse the widely-used international/ Zürich sunspot number record, R, with a view to quantifying a suspected calibration discontinuity around 1945 (which has been termed the “Waldmeier discontinuity” [Svalgaard, 2011]). We compare R against the composite sunspot group data from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) network and the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON), using both the number of sunspot groups, N{sub}G{\sub}, and the total area of the sunspots, A{sub}G{\sub}. In addition, we compare R with the recently developed interdiurnal variability geomagnetic indices IDV and IDV(1d). In all four cases, linearity of the relationship with R is not assumed and care is taken to ensure that the relationship of each with R is the same before and after the putative calibration change. It is shown the probability that a correction is not needed is of order 10{sup}−8{\sup} and that R is indeed too low before 1945. The optimum correction to R for values before 1945 is found to be 11.6%, 11.7%, 10.3% and 7.9% using A{sub}G{\sub}, N{sub)G{\sub}, IDV, and IDV(1d), respectively. The optimum value obtained by combining the sunspot group data is 11.6% with an uncertainty range 8.1-14.8% at the 2σ level. The geomagnetic indices provide an independent yet less stringent test but do give values that fall within the 2σ uncertainty band with optimum values are slightly lower than from the sunspot group data. The probability of the correction needed being as large as 20%, as advocated by Svalgaard [2011], is shown to be 1.6 × 10{sup}−5{\sup}.

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 2. Comparison with the geomagnetic data

We investigate the relationship between interdiurnal variation geomagnetic activity indices, IDV and IDV(1d), corrected sunspot number, R{sub}C{\sub}, and the group sunspot number R{sub}G{\sub}. R{sub}C{\sub} uses corrections for both the “Waldmeier discontinuity”, as derived in Paper 1 [Lockwood et al., 2014c], and the “Wolf discontinuity” revealed by Leussu et al. [2013]. We show that the simple correlation of the geomagnetic indices with R{sub}C{\sub}{sup}n{\sup} or R{sub}G{\sub}{sup}n{\sup} masks a considerable solar cycle variation. Using IDV(1d) or IDV to predict or evaluate the sunspot numbers, the errors are almost halved by allowing for the fact that the relationship varies over the solar cycle. The results indicate that differences between R{sub}C{\sub} and R{sub}G{\sub} have a variety of causes and are highly unlikely to be attributable to errors in either R{sub}G{\sub} alone, as has recently been assumed. Because it is not known if R{sub}C{\sub} or R{sub}G{\sub} is a better predictor of open flux emergence before 1874, a simple sunspot number composite is suggested which, like R{sub}G{\sub}, enables modelling of the open solar flux for 1610 onwards in Paper 3, but maintains the characteristics of R{sub}C{\sub}.

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 3. Modelling

From the variation of near-Earth interplanetary conditions, reconstructed for the mid-19th century to the present day using historic geomagnetic activity observations, Lockwood and Owens [2014] have suggested that Earth remains within a broadened streamer belt during solar cycles when the Open Solar Flux (OSF) is low. From this they propose that the Earth was immersed in almost constant slow solar wind during the Maunder minimum (c. 1650-1710). In this paper, we extend continuity modelling of the OSF to predict the streamer belt width using both group sunspot numbers and corrected international sunspot numbers to quantify the emergence rate of new OSF. The results support the idea that the solar wind at Earth was persistently slow during the Maunder minimum because the streamer belt was broad.

Cereal aphids and their natural enemies: responses to landscape composition and agri-environment schemes

There are potential conflicts between food security, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. Currently, there are still gaps in our understanding on the links between land use, biodiversity and ecosystem services; all have implications for sustainable agriculture. To improve food productivity in an ecologically friendly manner we should consider adapting current pest control techniques from being reliant on chemical means towards a more integrated approach. However, to do this, farmers and land owners require more information in order to make informed decisions. This brief review explores field level and landscape scale impacts on aphid control by their natural enemies. This will be done by exploring the effects of local field margin flower strips and two key landscape scale factors, winter wheat and lowland calcareous grasslands on aphids and their natural enemies. Research questions which need answering are discussed.

Pre-conditioning the epigenetic response to high vapor pressure deficit increases the drought tolerance of Arabidopsis thaliana

Epigenetic modification of the genome via cytosine methylation is a dynamic process that responds to changes in the growing environment. This modification can also be heritable. The combination of both properties means that there is the potential for the life experiences of the parental generation to modify the methylation profiles of their offspring and so potentially to ‘pre-condition’ them to better accommodate abiotic conditions encountered by their parents. We recently identified high vapor pressure deficit (vpd)-induced DNA methylation at two gene loci in the stomatal development pathway and an associated reduction in leaf stomatal frequency.1 Here, we test whether this epigenetic modification pre-conditioned parents and their offspring to the more severe water stress of periodic drought. We found that three generations of high vpd-grown plants were better able to withstand periodic drought stress over two generations. This resistance was not directly associated with de novo methylation of the target stomata genes, but was associated with the cmt3 mutant’s inability to maintain asymmetric sequence context methylation. If our finding applies widely, it could have significant implications for evolutionary biology and breeding for stressful environments.

Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14

During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall events and flooding. This had a considerable impact on property and transport infrastructure. A key question is whether the burning of fossil fuels is changing the frequency of extremes, and if so to what extent. We assess the scale of the winter flooding before reviewing a broad range of Earth system drivers affecting UK rainfall. Some drivers can be potentially disregarded for these specific storms whereas others are likely to have increased their risk of occurrence. We discuss the requirements of hydrological models to transform rainfall into river flows and flooding. To determine any general changing flood risk, we argue that accurate modelling needs to capture evolving understanding of UK rainfall interactions with a broad set of factors. This includes changes to multiscale atmospheric, oceanic, solar and sea-ice features, and land-use and demographics. Ensembles of such model simulations may be needed to build probability distributions of extremes for both pre-industrial and contemporary concentration levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Forecast uncertainty—ex Ante and ex Post: U.S. inflation and output growth

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macro-variables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but overestimate (i.e., are underconfident regarding) the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. Ex ante uncertainty remains at a high level compared to the ex post measure as the forecast horizon shortens. There is little evidence of a link between individuals’ ex post forecast accuracy and their ex ante subjective assessments.

Are professional macroeconomic forecasters able to do better than forecasting trends?

This paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long-run expectation. We consider the forecasts individually, and the consensus forecasts. Consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable, but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter.

Robust approaches to forecasting

We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium-correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, impulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods are likely to perform well. The robust methods are applied to forecasting US GDP using autoregressive models, and also to autoregressive models with factors extracted from a large dataset of macroeconomic variables. We consider forecasting performance over the Great Recession, and over an earlier more quiescent period.

Forecasting with Bayesian multivariate vintage-based VARs

We consider the forecasting of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions, using Bayesian vintage-based vector autoregressions. The prior incorporates the belief that, after the first few data releases, subsequent ones are likely to consist of revisions that are largely unpredictable. The Bayesian approach allows the joint modelling of the data revisions of more than one variable, while keeping the concomitant increase in parameter estimation uncertainty manageable. Our model provides markedly more accurate forecasts of post-revision values of inflation than do other models in the literature.

Only connect: an annotated bibliography reflecting the breadth and diversity of systems thinking

The field of systems thinking is both broad and diverse. This paper tries to provide assistance to outsiders wishing to find out what systems thinking is and also to insiders interested in exploring areas of the systems movement other than their own. A selection of books, papers and articles is given. Each has a full reference and a brief annotation, this being an account of, and a critical comment on, its content. The selection does not aim to be definitive or authoritative and obviously displays the predilections of the authors. However, the hope is that it will convey a sense of the intellectual and practical endeavours that, to the authors, constitute systems thinking and that it may aid the exploration of the range of holistic ideas that people have found useful in thinking about and acting in the world.

Integrin-linked kinase regulates the rate of platelet activation and is essential for the formation of stable thrombi

BACKGROUND: Integrin-linked kinase (ILK) and its associated complex of proteins are involved in many cellular activation processes, including cell adhesion and integrin signaling. We have previously demonstrated that mice with induced platelet ILK deficiency show reduced platelet activation and aggregation, but only a minor bleeding defect. Here, we explore this apparent disparity between the cellular and hemostatic phenotypes. METHODS: The impact of ILK inhibition on integrin αII b β3 activation and degranulation was assessed with the ILK-specific inhibitor QLT0267, and a conditional ILK-deficient mouse model was used to assess the impact of ILK deficiency on in vivo platelet aggregation and thrombus formation. RESULTS: Inhibition of ILK reduced the rate of both fibrinogen binding and α-granule secretion, but was accompanied by only a moderate reduction in the maximum extent of platelet activation or aggregation in vitro. The reduction in the rate of fibrinogen binding occurred prior to degranulation or translocation of αII b β3 to the platelet surface. The change in the rate of platelet activation in the absence of functional ILK led to a reduction in platelet aggregation in vivo, but did not change the size of thrombi formed following laser injury of the cremaster arteriole wall in ILK-deficient mice. It did, however, result in a marked decrease in the stability of thrombi formed in ILK-deficient mice. CONCLUSION: Taken together, the findings of this study indicate that, although ILK is not essential for platelet activation, it plays a critical role in facilitating rapid platelet activation, which is essential for stable thrombus formation.

Galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere

Simon R Thomas, Mathew J Owens and Mike Lockwood discuss how neutron monitor counts can help map space weather. This won the 2014 Rishbeth Prize for the best student talk at the Hot Spring MIST Meeting in Bath, April 2014.

A magnetometer for the Solar Orbiter mission

The magnetometer is a key instrument to the Solar Orbiter mission. The magnetic field is a fundamental parameter in any plasma: a precise and accurate measurement of the field is essential for understanding almost all aspects of plasma dynamics such as shocks and stream-stream interactions. Many of Solar Orbiter’s mission goals are focussed around the link between the Sun and space. A combination of in situ measurements by the magnetometer, remote measurements of solar magnetic fields and global modelling is required to determine this link and hence how the Sun affects interplanetary space. The magnetic field is typically one of the most precisely measured plasma parameters and is therefore the most commonly used measurement for studies of waves, turbulence and other small scale phenomena. It is also related to the coronal magnetic field which cannot be measured directly. Accurate knowledge of the magnetic field is essential for the calculation of fundamental plasma parameters such as the plasma beta, Alfvén speed and gyroperiod. We describe here the objectives and context of magnetic field measurements on Solar Orbiter and an instrument that fulfils those objectives as defined by the scientific requirements for the mission.

The rough guide to the Moon and Mars

Space is a dangerous place for humans, once we step beyond the rotection of Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field. Galactic cosmic rays and bursts of charged particles from the Sun damaging to health happen with alarming frequency – the Apollo astronauts were very lucky. Understanding the physics of radiation from distinct sources in space will be useful to help future space voyagers plan journeys in greater safety, and produce effective shields for these unavoidable events on journeys to Mars or beyond.