Development of convection along the SPCZ within a Madden-Julian oscillation

A subtropical Rossby-wave propagation mechanism is proposed to account for the poleward and eastward progression of intraseasonal convective anomalies along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) that is observed in a significant proportion of Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs). Large-scale convection, associated with an MJO, is assumed to be already established over the Indonesian region. The latent heating associated with this convection forces an equatorial Rossby-wave response with an upper-tropospheric anticyclone centred over, or slightly to the west of, the convection. Large potential-vorticity (PV) gradients, associated with the subtropical jet and the tropopause, lie just poleward of the anticyclone, and large magnitude PV air is advected equatorwards on the eastern side of the anticyclone. This ‘high’ PV air, or upper-tropospheric trough, is far enough off the equator that it has associated strong horizontal temperature gradients, and it induces deep ascent on its eastern side, at a latitude of about 15–30°. If this deep ascent is over a region susceptible to deep convection, such as the SPCZ, then convection may be forced or triggered. Hence convection develops along the SPCZ as a forced response to convection over Indonesia. The response mechanism is essentially one of subtropical Rossby-wave propagation. This hypothesis is based on a case study of a particularly strong MJO in early 1988, and is tested by idealized modelling studies. The mechanism may also be relevant to the existence of the mean SPCZ, as a forced response to mean Indonesian convection.

Historic environments and tourism: Improving access for disabled people

Historic environments and buildings are valued and valuable features of the UK tourism sector, as visitor attractions and as holiday accommodation. Keeping historic environments in economic use is crucial to their conservation, but they date from eras when access for disabled people was not a consideration. Part III of the Disability Discrimination Act 1995 (the DDA) took effect on 1 October 2004 and requires service providers to make reasonable building adjustments to remove physical barriers to disabled access. This independent scoping study by the College of Estate Management, sponsored by Marsh Limited and The Mercers' Company, explores progress in making historic environments accessible to disabled people through an examination of UK policy, literature and case studies in South Oxfordshire and London. The report findings are relevant for property and built environment professionals, business managers and all those involved with historic environments that are used for tourism.

MALDI MS profiling of post-DRE urine samples highlights the potential of b-Microseminoprotein as a marker for prostatic diseases

BACKGROUND. To use spectra acquired by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) mass spectrometry (MS) from pre- and post-digital rectal examination (DRE) urine samples to search for discriminating peaks that can adequately distinguish between benign and malignant prostate conditions, and identify the peaks’ underlying biomolecules. METHODS. Twenty-five participants with prostate cancer (PCa) and 27 participants with a variety of benign prostatic conditions as confirmed by a 10-core tissue biopsy were included. Pre- and post-DRE urine samples were prepared for MALDI MS profiling using an automated clean-up procedure. Following mass spectra collection and processing, peak mass and intensity were extracted and subjected to statistical analysis to identify peaks capable of distinguishing between benign and cancer. Logistic regression was used to combine markers to create a sensitive and specific test. RESULTS. A peak at m/z 10,760 was identified as b-microseminoprotein (b-MSMB) and found to be statistically lower in urine from PCa participants using the peak’s average areas. By combining serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels with MALDI MS-measured b-MSMB levels, optimum threshold values obtained from Receiver Operator characteristics curves gave an increased sensitivity of 96% at a specificity of 26%. CONCLUSIONS. These results demonstrate that with a simple sample clean-up followed by MALDI MS profiling, significant differences of MSMB abundance were found in post-DRE urine samples. In combination with PSA serum levels, obtained from a classic clinical assay led to high classification accuracy for PCa in the studied sample set. Our results need to be validated in a larger multicenter prospective randomized clinical trial.

Spectra of a class of non-self-adjoint matrices

We consider a new class of non-self-adjoint matrices that arise from an indefinite self- adjoint linear pencil of matrices, and obtain the spectral asymptotics of the spectra as the size of the matrices diverges to infinity. We prove that the spectrum is qualitatively different when a certain parameter c equals 0, and when it is non-zero, and that certain features of the spectrum depend on Diophantine properties of c.

Enabling sharing and reuse of scientific data

The purpose of this study was to develop an understanding of the current state of scientific data sharing that stakeholders could use to develop and implement effective data sharing strategies and policies. The study developed a conceptual model to describe the process of data sharing, and the drivers, barriers, and enablers that determine stakeholder engagement. The conceptual model was used as a framework to structure discussions and interviews with key members of all stakeholder groups. Analysis of data obtained from interviewees identified a number of themes that highlight key requirements for the development of a mature data sharing culture.

Cloud computing in e-science: research challenges and opportunities

SOA (Service Oriented Architecture), workflow, the Semantic Web, and Grid computing are key enabling information technologies in the development of increasingly sophisticated e-Science infrastructures and application platforms. While the emergence of Cloud computing as a new computing paradigm has provided new directions and opportunities for e-Science infrastructure development, it also presents some challenges. Scientific research is increasingly finding that it is difficult to handle “big data” using traditional data processing techniques. Such challenges demonstrate the need for a comprehensive analysis on using the above mentioned informatics techniques to develop appropriate e-Science infrastructure and platforms in the context of Cloud computing. This survey paper describes recent research advances in applying informatics techniques to facilitate scientific research particularly from the Cloud computing perspective. Our particular contributions include identifying associated research challenges and opportunities, presenting lessons learned, and describing our future vision for applying Cloud computing to e-Science. We believe our research findings can help indicate the future trend of e-Science, and can inform funding and research directions in how to more appropriately employ computing technologies in scientific research. We point out the open research issues hoping to spark new development and innovation in the e-Science field.

Noisy Monte Carlo: convergence of Markov chains with approximate transition kernels

Monte Carlo algorithms often aim to draw from a distribution π by simulating a Markov chain with transition kernel P such that π is invariant under P. However, there are many situations for which it is impractical or impossible to draw from the transition kernel P. For instance, this is the case with massive datasets, where is it prohibitively expensive to calculate the likelihood and is also the case for intractable likelihood models arising from, for example, Gibbs random fields, such as those found in spatial statistics and network analysis. A natural approach in these cases is to replace P by an approximation Pˆ. Using theory from the stability of Markov chains we explore a variety of situations where it is possible to quantify how ’close’ the chain given by the transition kernel Pˆ is to the chain given by P . We apply these results to several examples from spatial statistics and network analysis.

Morgawr: an experimental Bronze Age-type sewn-plank craft based on the Ferriby boats

This paper reports on the construction of a full-scale Bronze Age-type sewn-plank boat based on the Ferriby boats. The boat, which was named Morgawr, was constructed in the National Maritime Museum Cornwall in Falmouth, England, during 2012 and the first months of 2013, as part of a larger exhibition in the museum. This paper provides the background and context of the project, describes the process of building the craft, and reflects in particular on differences between Morgawr and the ‘hypothetical reconstruction of a complete sewn-plank boat’ published in 1990 by Ted Wright and John Coates which formed the basis for this project.

Efficacy of condensed tannins against larval Hymenolepis diminuta (Cestoda) in vitro and in the intermediate host Tenebrio molitor (Coleoptera) in vivo

Natural anti-parasitic compounds in plants such as condensed tannins (CT) have anthelmintic properties against a range of gastrointestinal nematodes, but for other helminths such effects are unexplored. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of CT from three different plant extracts in a model system employing the rat tapeworm, Hymenolepis diminuta, in its intermediate host, Tenebrio molitor. An in vitro study examined infectivity of H. diminuta cysticercoids (excystation success) isolated from infected beetles exposed to different concentrations of CT extracts from pine bark (PB) (Pinus sps), hazelnut pericarp (HN) (Corylus avellana) or white clover flowers (WC) (Trifolium repens), in comparison with the anthelmintic drug praziquantel (positive control). In the in vitro study, praziquantel and CT from all three plant extracts had dose-dependent inhibitory effects on cysticercoid excystation. The HN extract was most effective at inhibiting excystation, followed by PB and WC. An in vivo study was carried out on infected beetles (measured as cysticercoid establishment) fed different doses of PB, HN and praziquantel. There was a highly significant inhibitory effect of HN on cysticercoid development (p = 0.0002). Overall, CT showed a promising anti-cestodal effect against the metacestode stage of H. diminuta.

Leveraging everyday technology for people living with dementia: a case study

– The purpose of this paper is to present the self-described “journey” of a person with dementia (Brian; author 3) in his re-learning of old technologies and learning of new ones and the impact this had on his life. Design/methodology/approach – This is a single case study detailing the participant's experiences collaborating with a researcher to co-create methods of facilitating this learning process, which he documented in the form of an online blog and diary entries. These were analysed using NVivo to reveal the key themes. Findings – Brian was able to relearn previously used technologies and learn two new ones. This lead to an overarching theme of positive outlook on life supported by person-centredness, identity and technology, which challenged negative perceptions about dementia. Research limitations/implications – The paper provides an example of how learning and technology improved the life of one person with dementia. By sharing the approach the authors hope to encourage others to embrace the challenge of designing and developing innovative solutions for people with a dementia diagnosis by leveraging both current mainstream technology and creating novel bespoke interventions for dementia. Originality/value – The personal perspective of a person with dementia and his experiences of (re-) learning provide a unique insight into the impact of technology on his life.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening

Many theories for the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) focus on diabatic processes, particularly the evolution of vertical heating and moistening. Poor MJO performance in weather and climate models is often blamed on biases in these processes and their interactions with the large-scale circulation. We introduce one of three components of a model-evaluation project, which aims to connect MJO fidelity in models to their representations of several physical processes, focusing on diabatic heating and moistening. This component consists of 20-day hindcasts, initialised daily during two MJO events in winter 2009-10. The 13 models exhibit a range of skill: several have accurate forecasts to 20 days' lead, while others perform similarly to statistical models (8-11 days). Models that maintain the observed MJO amplitude accurately predict propagation, but not vice versa. We find no link between hindcast fidelity and the precipitation-moisture relationship, in contrast to other recent studies. There is also no relationship between models' performance and the evolution of their diabatic-heating profiles with rain rate. A more robust association emerges between models' fidelity and net moistening: the highest-skill models show a clear transition from low-level moistening for light rainfall to mid-level moistening at moderate rainfall and upper-level moistening for heavy rainfall. The mid-level moistening, arising from both dynamics and physics, may be most important. Accurately representing many processes may be necessary, but not sufficient for capturing the MJO, which suggests that models fail to predict the MJO for a broad range of reasons and limits the possibility of finding a panacea.

Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation

The detection of anthropogenic climate change can be improved by recognising the seasonality in the climate change response. This is demonstrated for the North Atlantic jet (zonal wind at 850 hPa, U850) and European precipitation responses projected by the CMIP5 climate models. The U850 future response is characterised by a marked seasonality: an eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet into Europe in November-April, and a poleward shift in May-October. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the multi-model mean response in U850 in these two extended seasonal means emerges by 2035-2040 for the lower--latitude features and by 2050-2070 for the higher--latitude features, relative to the 1960-1990 climate. This is 5-15 years earlier than when evaluated in the traditional meteorological seasons (December--February, June--August), and it results from an increase in the signal to noise ratio associated with the spatial coherence of the response within the extended seasons. The annual mean response lacks important information on the seasonality of the response without improving the signal to noise ratio. The same two extended seasons are demonstrated to capture the seasonality of the European precipitation response to climate change and to anticipate its emergence by 10-20 years. Furthermore, some of the regional responses, such as the Mediterranean precipitation decline and the U850 response in North Africa in the extended winter, are projected to emerge by 2020-2025, according to the models with a strong response. Therefore, observations might soon be useful to test aspects of the atmospheric circulation response predicted by some of the CMIP5 models.