The three-dimensional morphology of simulated and observed convective storms over southern England

A set of high-resolution radar observations of convective storms has been collected to evaluate such storms in the UK Met Office Unified Model during the DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms). The 3-GHz Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar was set up with a scan-scheduling algorithm to automatically track convective storms identified in real-time from the operational rainfall radar network. More than 1,000 storm observations gathered over fifteen days in 2011 and 2012 are used to evaluate the model under various synoptic conditions supporting convection. In terms of the detailed three-dimensional morphology, storms in the 1500-m grid-length simulations are shown to produce horizontal structures a factor 1.5–2 wider compared to radar observations. A set of nested model runs at grid lengths down to 100m show that the models converge in terms of storm width, but the storm structures in the simulations with the smallest grid lengths are too narrow and too intense compared to the radar observations. The modelled storms were surrounded by a region of drizzle without ice reflectivities above 0 dBZ aloft, which was related to the dominance of ice crystals and was improved by allowing only aggregates as an ice particle habit. Simulations with graupel outperformed the standard configuration for heavy-rain profiles, but the storm structures were a factor 2 too wide and the convective cores 2 km too deep.

Synoptic versus orographic control on stationary convective banding

Quasi-stationary convective bands can cause large localised rainfall accumulations and are often anchored by topographic features. Here, the predictability of and mechanisms causing one such band are determined using ensembles of the Met Office Unified Model at convection-permitting resolution (1.5 km grid length). The band was stationary over the UK for 3 h and produced rainfall accumulations of up to 34 mm. The amount and location of the predicted rainfall was highly variable despite only small differences between the large-scale conditions of the ensemble members. Only three of 21 members of the control ensemble produced a stationary rain band; these three had the weakest upstream winds and hence lowest Froude number. Band formation was due to the superposition of two processes: lee-side convergence resulting from flow around an upstream obstacle and thermally forced convergence resulting from elevated heating over the upstream terrain. Both mechanisms were enhanced when the Froude number was lower. By increasing the terrain height (thus reducing the Froude number), the band became more predictable. An ensemble approach is required to successfully predict the possible occurrence of such quasi-stationary convective events because the rainfall variability is largely modulated by small variations of the large-scale flow. However, high-resolution models are required to accurately resolve the small-scale interactions of the flow with the topography upon which the band formation depends. Thus, although topography provides some predictability, the quasi-stationary convective bands anchored by it are likely to remain a forecasting challenge for many years to come.

Development of the Surface Urban Energy and Water balance Scheme (SUEWS) for cold climate cities

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is developed to include snow. The processes addressed include accumulation of snow on the different urban surface types: snow albedo and density aging, snow melting and re-freezing of meltwater. Individual model parameters are assessed and independently evaluated using long-term observations in the two cold climate cities of Helsinki and Montreal. Eddy covariance sensible and latent heat fluxes and snow depth observations are available for two sites in Montreal and one in Helsinki. Surface runoff from two catchments (24 and 45 ha) in Helsinki and snow properties (albedo and density) from two sites in Montreal are also analysed. As multiple observation sites with different land-cover characteristics are available in both cities, model development is conducted independent of evaluation. The developed model simulates snowmelt related runoff well (within 19% and 3% for the two catchments in Helsinki when there is snow on the ground), with the springtime peak estimated correctly. However, the observed runoff peaks tend to be smoother than the simulated ones, likely due to the water holding capacity of the catchments and the missing time lag between the catchment and the observation point in the model. For all three sites the model simulates the timing of the snow accumulation and melt events well, but underestimates the total snow depth by 18–20% in Helsinki and 29–33% in Montreal. The model is able to reproduce the diurnal pattern of net radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat during cold snow, melting snow and snow-free periods. The largest model uncertainties are related to the timing of the melting period and the parameterization of the snowmelt. The results show that the enhanced model can simulate correctly the exchange of energy and water in cold climate cities at sites with varying surface cover.

Ocean heat uptake processes: a model intercomparison

We compare the quasi-equilibrium heat balances, as well as their responses to 4×CO2 perturbation, among three global climate models with the aim to identify and explain inter-model differences in ocean heat uptake (OHU) processes. We find that, in quasi-equilibrium, convective and mixed layer processes, as well as eddy-related processes, cause cooling of the subsurface ocean. The cooling is balanced by warming caused by advective and diapycnally diffusive processes. We also find that in the CO2-perturbed climates the largest contribution to OHU comes from changes in vertical mixing processes and the mean circulation, particularly in the extra-tropics, caused both by changes in wind forcing, and by changes in high-latitude buoyancy forcing. There is a substantial warming in the tropics, a significant part of which occurs because of changes in horizontal advection in extra-tropics. Diapycnal diffusion makes only a weak contribution to the OHU, mainly in the tropics, due to increased stratification. There are important qualitative differences in the contribution of eddy-induced advection and isopycnal diffusion to the OHU among the models. The former is related to the different values of the coefficients used in the corresponding scheme. The latter is related to the different tapering formulations of the isopycnal diffusion scheme. These differences affect the OHU in the deep ocean, which is substantial in two of the models, the dominant region of deep warming being the Southern Ocean. However, most of the OHU takes place above 2000 m, and the three models are quantitatively similar in their global OHU efficiency and its breakdown among processes and as a function of latitude.

Structure of the planetary boundary layer over southeast England: modeling and measurements

The Weather Research and Forecasting model was applied to analyze variations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure over Southeast England including central and suburban London. The parameterizations and predictive skills of two nonlocal mixing PBL schemes, YSU and ACM2, and two local mixing PBL schemes, MYJ and MYNN2, were evaluated over a variety of stability conditions, with model predictions at a 3 km grid spacing. The PBL height predictions, which are critical for scaling turbulence and diffusion in meteorological and air quality models, show significant intra-scheme variance (> 20%), and the reasons are presented. ACM2 diagnoses the PBL height thermodynamically using the bulk Richardson number method, which leads to a good agreement with the lidar data for both unstable and stable conditions. The modeled vertical profiles in the PBL, such as wind speed, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and heat flux, exhibit large spreads across the PBL schemes. The TKE predicted by MYJ were found to be too small and show much less diurnal variation as compared with observations over London. MYNN2 produces better TKE predictions at low levels than MYJ, but its turbulent length scale increases with height in the upper part of the strongly convective PBL, where it should decrease. The local PBL schemes considerably underestimate the entrainment heat fluxes for convective cases. The nonlocal PBL schemes exhibit stronger mixing in the mean wind fields under convective conditions than the local PBL schemes and agree better with large-eddy simulation (LES) studies.

Relationship of dayside auroral precipitations to the open-closed separatrix and the pattern of convective flow

The implications are discussed of acceleration of magnetospheric ions by reflection off two magnetopause Alfvén waves, launched by the reconnection site into the inflow regions on both sides of the boundary. The effects of these waves on the ion populations, predicted using the model described by Lockwood et al. [1996], offer a physical interpretation of all the various widely used classifications of precipitation into the dayside ionosphere, namely, central plasma sheet, dayside boundary plasma sheet (BPS), void, low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL), cusp, mantle, and polar cap. The location of the open-closed boundary and the form of the convection flow pattern are discussed in relation to the regions in which these various precipitations are typically found. Specifically, the model predicts that both the LLBL and the dayside BPS precipitations are on newly opened field lines and places the convection reversal within the LLBL, as is often observed. It is shown that this offers solutions to a number of paradoxes and problems that arise if the LLBL and BPS precipitations are thought of as being on closed field lines. This model is also used to make quantitive predictions of the longitudinal extent and latitudinal width of the cusp, as a function of solar wind density.

Dependence of convective flows and particle precipitation in the high-latitude dayside ionosphere on theXandYcomponents of the interplanetary magnetic field

The asymmetries in the convective flows, current systems, and particle precipitation in the high-latitude dayside ionosphere which are related to the equatorial plane components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are discussed in relation to the results of several recent observational studies. It is argued that all of the effects reported to date which are ascribed to the y component of the IMF can be understood, at least qualitatively, in terms of a simple theoretical picture in which the effects result from the stresses exerted on the magnetosphere consequent on the interconnection of terrestrial and interplanetary fields. In particular, relaxation under the action of these stresses allows, in effect, a partial penetration of the IMF into the magnetospheric cavity, such that the sense of the expected asymmetry effects on closed field lines can be understood, to zeroth order, in terms of the “dipole plus uniform field” model. In particular, in response to IMF By, the dayside cusp should be displaced in longitude about noon in the same sense as By in the northern hemisphere, and in the opposite sense to By in the southern hemisphere, while simultaneously the auroral oval as a whole should be shifted in the dawn-dusk direction in the opposite sense with respect to By. These expected displacements are found to be consistent with recently published observations. Similar considerations lead to the suggestion that the auroral oval may also undergo displacements in the noon-midnight direction which are associated with the x component of the IMF. We show that a previously published study of the position of the auroral oval contains strong initial evidence for the existence of this effect. However, recent results on variations in the latitude of the cusp are more ambiguous. This topic therefore requires further study before definitive conclusions can be drawn.

Obstacle avoidance routing scheme through optimal sink movement for home monitoring and mobile robotic consumer devices

In recent years, ZigBee has been proven to be an excellent solution to create scalable and flexible home automation networks. In a home automation network, consumer devices typically collect data from a home monitoring environment and then transmit the data to an end user through multi-hop communication without the need for any human intervention. However, due to the presence of typical obstacles in a home environment, error-free reception may not be possible, particularly for power constrained devices. A mobile sink based data transmission scheme can be one solution but obstacles create significant complexities for the sink movement path determination process. Therefore, an obstacle avoidance data routing scheme is of vital importance to the design of an efficient home automation system. This paper presents a mobile sink based obstacle avoidance routing scheme for a home monitoring system. The mobile sink collects data by traversing through the obstacle avoidance path. Through ZigBee based hardware implementation and verification, the proposed scheme successfully transmits data through the obstacle avoidance path to improve network performance in terms of life span, energy consumption and reliability. The application of this work can be applied to a wide range of intelligent pervasive consumer products and services including robotic vacuum cleaners and personal security robots1.

The DYMECS project: a statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution NWP models

A new frontier in weather forecasting is emerging by operational forecast models now being run at convection-permitting resolutions at many national weather services. However, this is not a panacea; significant systematic errors remain in the character of convective storms and rainfall distributions. The DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms) is taking a fundamentally new approach to evaluate and improve such models: rather than relying on a limited number of cases, which may not be representative, we have gathered a large database of 3D storm structures on 40 convective days using the Chilbolton radar in southern England. We have related these structures to storm life-cycles derived by tracking features in the rainfall from the UK radar network, and compared them statistically to storm structures in the Met Office model, which we ran at horizontal grid length between 1.5 km and 100 m, including simulations with different subgrid mixing length. We also evaluated the scale and intensity of convective updrafts using a new radar technique. We find that the horizontal size of simulated convective storms and the updrafts within them is much too large at 1.5-km resolution, such that the convective mass flux of individual updrafts can be too large by an order of magnitude. The scale of precipitation cores and updrafts decreases steadily with decreasing grid lengths, as does the typical storm lifetime. The 200-m grid-length simulation with standard mixing length performs best over all diagnostics, although a greater mixing length improves the representation of deep convective storms.

Recent lake-level and outflow variations at Lake Viljandi, Estonia: validation of a coupled lake-catchment modelling scheme for climate change studies

Changes in the depth of Lake Viljandi between 1940 and 1990 were simulated using a lake water and energy-balance model driven by standard monthly weather data. Catchment runoff was simulated using a one-dimensional hydrological model, with a two-layer soil, a single-layer snowpack, a simple representation of vegetation cover and similarly modest input requirements. Outflow was modelled as a function of lake level. The simulated record of lake level and outflow matched observations of lake-level variations (r = 0.78) and streamflow (r = 0.87) well. The ability of the model to capture both intra- and inter-annual variations in the behaviour of a specific lake, despite the relatively simple input requirements, makes it extremely suitable for investigations of the impacts of climate change on lake water balance.

How is the balance of a forecast ensemble affected by adaptive and non-adaptive localization schemes?

This paper investigates the effect on balance of a number of Schur product-type localization schemes which have been designed with the primary function of reducing spurious far-field correlations in forecast error statistics. The localization schemes studied comprise a non-adaptive scheme (where the moderation matrix is decomposed in a spectral basis), and two adaptive schemes, namely a simplified version of SENCORP (Smoothed ENsemble COrrelations Raised to a Power) and ECO-RAP (Ensemble COrrelations Raised to A Power). The paper shows, we believe for the first time, how the degree of balance (geostrophic and hydrostatic) implied by the error covariance matrices localized by these schemes can be diagnosed. Here it is considered that an effective localization scheme is one that reduces spurious correlations adequately but also minimizes disruption of balance (where the 'correct' degree of balance or imbalance is assumed to be possessed by the unlocalized ensemble). By varying free parameters that describe each scheme (e.g. the degree of truncation in the schemes that use the spectral basis, the 'order' of each scheme, and the degree of ensemble smoothing), it is found that a particular configuration of the ECO-RAP scheme is best suited to the convective-scale system studied. According to our diagnostics this ECO-RAP configuration still weakens geostrophic and hydrostatic balance, but overall this is less so than for other schemes.