On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecasts

Reliability analysis of probabilistic forecasts, in particular through the rank histogram or Talagrand diagram, is revisited. Two shortcomings are pointed out: Firstly, a uniform rank histogram is but a necessary condition for reliability. Secondly, if the forecast is assumed to be reliable, an indication is needed how far a histogram is expected to deviate from uniformity merely due to randomness. Concerning the first shortcoming, it is suggested that forecasts be grouped or stratified along suitable criteria, and that reliability is analyzed individually for each forecast stratum. A reliable forecast should have uniform histograms for all individual forecast strata, not only for all forecasts as a whole. As to the second shortcoming, instead of the observed frequencies, the probability of the observed frequency is plotted, providing and indication of the likelihood of the result under the hypothesis that the forecast is reliable. Furthermore, a Goodness-Of-Fit statistic is discussed which is essentially the reliability term of the Ignorance score. The discussed tools are applied to medium range forecasts for 2 m-temperature anomalies at several locations and lead times. The forecasts are stratified along the expected ranked probability score. Those forecasts which feature a high expected score turn out to be particularly unreliable.

Vision of the body and the differentiation of perceived body side in touch

Although tactile representations of the two body sides are initially segregated into opposite hemispheres of the brain, behavioural interactions between body sides exist and can be revealed under conditions of tactile double simultaneous stimulation (DSS) at the hands. Here we examined to what extent vision can affect body side segregation in touch. To this aim, we changed hand-related visual input while participants performed a go/no-go task to detect a tactile stimulus delivered to one target finger (e.g., right index), stimulated alone or with a concurrent non-target finger either on the same hand (e.g., right middle finger) or on the other hand (e.g., left index finger = homologous; left middle finger = non-homologous). Across experiments, the two hands were visible or occluded from view (Experiment 1), images of the two hands were either merged using a morphing technique (Experiment 2), or were shown in a compatible vs incompatible position with respect to the actual posture (Experiment 3). Overall, the results showed reliable interference effects of DSS, as compared to target-only stimulation. This interference varied as a function of which non-target finger was stimulated, and emerged both within and between hands. These results imply that the competition between tactile events is not clearly segregated across body sides. Crucially, non-informative vision of the hand affected overall tactile performance only when a visual/proprioceptive conflict was present, while neither congruent nor morphed hand vision affected tactile DSS interference. This suggests that DSS operates at a tactile processing stage in which interactions between body sides can occur regardless of the available visual input from the body.

Spatial coding of touch at the fingers: Insights from double simultaneous stimulation within and between hands

We studied the effect of tactile double simultaneous stimulation (DSS) within and between hands to examine spatial coding of touch at the fingers. Participants performed a go/no-go task to detect a tactile stimulus delivered to one target finger (e.g., right index), stimulated alone or with a concurrent non-target finger, either on the same hand (e.g., right middle finger) or on the other hand (e.g., left index finger=homologous; left middle finger=non-homologous). Across blocks we also changed the unseen hands posture (both hands palm down, or one hand rotated palm-up). When both hands were palm-down DSS interference effects emerged both within and between hands, but only when the non-homologous finger served as non-target. This suggests a clear segregation between the fingers of each hand, regardless of finger side. By contrast, when one hand was palm-up interference effects emerged only within hand, whereas between hands DSS interference was considerably reduced or absent. Thus, between hands interference was clearly affected by changes in hands posture. Taken together, these findings provide behavioral evidence in humans for multiple spatial coding of touch during tactile DSS at the fingers. In particular, they confirm the existence of representational stages of touch that distinguish between body-regions more than body-sides. Moreover, they show that the availability of tactile stimulation side becomes prominent when postural update is required.

A multi-level analytical approach for detection and visualization of intracellular NO production and nitrosation events using diaminofluoresceins

Diaminofluoresceins are widely used probes for detection and intracellular localization of NO formation in cultured/isolated cells and intact tissues. The fluorinated derivative, 4-amino-5-methylamino-2′,7′-difluorofluorescein (DAF-FM), has gained increasing popularity in recent years due to its improved NO-sensitivity, pH-stability, and resistance to photo-bleaching compared to the first-generation compound, DAF-2. Detection of NO production by either reagent relies on conversion of the parent compound into a fluorescent triazole, DAF-FM-T and DAF-2-T, respectively. While this reaction is specific for NO and/or reactive nitrosating species, it is also affected by the presence of oxidants/antioxidants. Moreover, the reaction with other molecules can lead to the formation of fluorescent products other than the expected triazole. Thus additional controls and structural confirmation of the reaction products are essential. Using human red blood cells as an exemplary cellular system we here describe robust protocols for the analysis of intracellular DAF-FM-T formation using an array of fluorescence-based methods (laser-scanning fluorescence microscopy, flow cytometry and fluorimetry) and analytical separation techniques (reversed-phase HPLC and LC-MS/MS). When used in combination, these assays afford unequivocal identification of the fluorescent signal as being derived from NO and are applicable to most other cellular systems without or with only minor modifications.

The effect of chlortetracycline treatment and its subsequent withdrawal on multi-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 and commensal Escherichia coli in the pig

Aims: To investigate the effect of a therapeutic and sub-therapeutic chlortetracycline treatment on tetracyclineresistant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 and on the commensal Escherichia coli in pig. Methods and Results: Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 was orally administered in all pigs prior to antibiotic treatment, and monitored with the native E. coli. Higher numbers of S. Typhimurium DT104 were shed from treated pigs than untreated pigs. This lasted up to 6 weeks post-treatment in the high-dose group. In this group, there was a 30% increase in E. coli with a chlortetracycline minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) > 16 mg l(-1) and a 10% increase in E. coli with an MIC > 50 mg l(-1) during and 2 weeks post-treatment. This effect was less-pronounced in the low-dose group. PCR identified the predominant tetracycline resistance genes in the E. coli as tetA, tetB and tetC. The concentration of chlortetracycline in the pig faeces was measured by HPLC and levels reached 80 mug g(-1) faeces during treatment. Conclusion: Chlortetracycline treatment increases the proportion of resistant enteric bacteria beyond the current withdrawal time. Significance and Impact of the Study: Treated pigs are more likely to enter abattoirs with higher levels of resistant bacteria than untreated pigs promoting the risk of these moving up the food chain and infecting man.

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.

Analysis and modeling of ants’ behavior from single to multi-body

In order to shed light on the collective behavior of social insects, we analyzed the behavior of ants from single to multi-body. In an experimental set-up, ants are placed in hemisphere without a nest and food. Trajectory of ants is recorded. From this bottom-up approach, we found that collective behavior of ants as follows: 1. Activity of single ant increases and decreases periodically. 2. Spontaneous meeting process is observed between two ants and meeting spot of two ants is localized in hemisphere. 3. Result on division of labor is obtained between two ants.

Identifying time lags in the restoration of grassland butterfly communities: a multi-site assessment

Although grasslands are crucial habitats for European butterflies, large-scale declines in quality and area have devastated many species. Grassland restoration can contribute to the recovery of butterfly populations, although there is a paucity of information on the long-term effects of management. Using eight UK data sets (9-21 years), we investigate changes in restoration success for (1) arable reversion sites, were grassland was established on bare ground using seed mixtures, and (2) grassland enhancement sites, where degraded grasslands are restored by scrub removal followed by the re-instigation of cutting/grazing. We also assessed the importance of individual butterfly traits and ecological characteristics in determining colonisation times. Consistent increases in restoration success over time were seen for arable reversion sites, with the most rapid rates of increase in restoration success seen over the first 10 years. For grasslands enhancement there were no consistent increases in restoration success over time. Butterfly colonisation times were fastest for species with widespread host plants or where host plants established well during restoration. Low mobility butterfly species took longer to colonise. We show that arable reversion is an effective tool for the management of butterfly communities. We suggest that as restoration takes time to achieve, its use as a mitigation tool against future environmental change (i.e. by decreasing isolation in fragmented landscapes) needs to take into account such time lags.

Comparative in vitro inhibition of urinary tract pathogens by single- and multi-strain probiotics

PURPOSE: Multi-species probiotic preparations have been suggested as having a wide spectrum of application, although few studies have compared their efficacy with that of individual component strains at equal concentrations. We therefore tested the ability of 4 single probiotics and 4 probiotic mixtures to inhibit the urinary tract pathogens Escherichia coli NCTC 9001 and Enterococcus faecalis NCTC 00775. METHODS: We used an agar spot test to test the ability of viable cells to inhibit pathogens, while a broth inhibition assay was used to assess inhibition by cell-free probiotic supernatants in both pH-neutralised and non-neutralised forms. RESULTS: In the agar spot test, all probiotic treatments showed inhibition, L. acidophilus was the most inhibitory single strain against E. faecalis, L. fermentum the most inhibitory against E. coli. A commercially available mixture of 14 strains (Bio-Kult(®)) was the most effective mixture, against E. faecalis, the 3-lactobacillus mixture the most inhibitory against E. coli. Mixtures were not significantly more inhibitory than single strains. In the broth inhibition assays, all probiotic supernatants inhibited both pathogens when pH was not controlled, with only 2 treatments causing inhibition at a neutral pH. CONCLUSIONS: Both viable cells of probiotics and supernatants of probiotic cultures were able to inhibit growth of two urinary tract pathogens. Probiotic mixtures prevented the growth of urinary tract pathogens but were not significantly more inhibitory than single strains. Probiotics appear to produce metabolites that are inhibitory towards urinary tract pathogens. Probiotics display potential to reduce the incidence of urinary tract infections via inhibition of colonisation.

Multi-year droughts in Europe: analysis of development and causes

Whilst hydrological systems can show resilience to short-term streamflow deficiencies during within-year droughts, prolonged deficits during multi-year droughts are a significant threat to water resources security in Europe. This study uses a threshold-based objective classification of regional hydrological drought to qualitatively examine the characteristics, spatio-temporal evolution and synoptic climatic drivers of multi-year drought events in 1962–64, 1975–76 and 1995–97, on a European scale but with particular focus on the UK. Whilst all three events are multi-year, pan-European phenomena, their development and causes can be contrasted. The critical factor in explaining the unprecedented severity of the 1975–76 event is the consecutive occurrence of winter and summer drought. In contrast, 1962–64 was a succession of dry winters, mitigated by quiescent summers, whilst 1995–97 lacked spatial coherence and was interrupted by wet interludes. Synoptic climatic conditions vary within and between multi-year droughts, suggesting that regional factors modulate the climate signal in streamflow drought occurrence. Despite being underpinned by qualitatively similar climatic conditions and commonalities in evolution and characteristics, each of the three droughts has a unique spatio-temporal signature. An improved understanding of the spatio-temporal evolution and characteristics of multi-year droughts has much to contribute to monitoring and forecasting capability, and to improved mitigation strategies.

Janus PEG-based dendrimers for use in combination therapy: controlled multi-drug loading and sequential release

The increasing use of drug combinations to treat disease states, such as cancer, calls for improved delivery systems that are able to deliver multiple agents. Herein, we report a series of novel Janus dendrimers with potential for use in combination therapy. Different generations (first and second) of PEG-based dendrons containing two different “model drugs”, benzyl alcohol (BA) and 3-phenylpropionic acid (PPA), were synthesized. BA and PPA were attached via two different linkers (carbonate and ester, respectively) to promote differential drug release. The four dendrons were coupled together via (3 + 2) cycloaddition chemistries to afford four Janus dendrimers, which contained varying amounts and different ratios of BA and PPA, namely, (BA)2-G1-G1-(PPA)2, (BA)4-G2-G1-(PPA)2, (BA)2-G1-G2-(PPA)4, and (BA)4-G2-G2-(PPA)4. Release studies in plasma showed that the dendrimers provided sequential release of the two model drugs, with BA being released faster than PPA from all of the dendrons. The different dendrimers allowed delivery of increasing amounts (0.15–0.30 mM) and in exact molecular ratios (1:2; 2:1; 1:2; 2:2) of the two model drug compounds. The dendrimers were noncytotoxic (100% viability at 1 mg/mL) toward human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) and nontoxic toward red blood cells, as confirmed by hemolysis studies. These studies demonstrate that these Janus PEG-based dendrimers offer great potential for the delivery of drugs via combination therapy.

Endogenous cholinergic tone modulates spontaneous network level neuronal activity in primary cortical cultures grown on multi-electrode arrays

Background Cortical cultures grown long-term on multi-electrode arrays (MEAs) are frequently and extensively used as models of cortical networks in studies of neuronal firing activity, neuropharmacology, toxicology and mechanisms underlying synaptic plasticity. However, in contrast to the predominantly asynchronous neuronal firing activity exhibited by intact cortex, electrophysiological activity of mature cortical cultures is dominated by spontaneous epileptiform-like global burst events which hinders their effective use in network-level studies, particularly for neurally-controlled animat (‘artificial animal’) applications. Thus, the identification of culture features that can be exploited to produce neuronal activity more representative of that seen in vivo could increase the utility and relevance of studies that employ these preparations. Acetylcholine has a recognised neuromodulatory role affecting excitability, rhythmicity, plasticity and information flow in vivo although its endogenous production by cortical cultures and subsequent functional influence upon neuronal excitability remains unknown. Results Consequently, using MEA electrophysiological recording supported by immunohistochemical and RT-qPCR methods, we demonstrate for the first time, the presence of intrinsic cholinergic neurons and significant, endogenous cholinergic tone in cortical cultures with a characterisation of the muscarinic and nicotinic components that underlie modulation of spontaneous neuronal activity. We found that tonic muscarinic ACh receptor (mAChR) activation affects global excitability and burst event regularity in a culture age-dependent manner whilst, in contrast, tonic nicotinic ACh receptor (nAChR) activation can modulate burst duration and the proportion of spikes occurring within bursts in a spatio-temporal fashion. Conclusions We suggest that the presence of significant endogenous cholinergic tone in cortical cultures and the comparability of its modulatory effects to those seen in intact brain tissues support emerging, exploitable commonalities between in vivo and in vitro preparations. We conclude that experimental manipulation of endogenous cholinergic tone could offer a novel opportunity to improve the use of cortical cultures for studies of network-level mechanisms in a manner that remains largely consistent with its functional role.

A multi-agent system for pervasive healthcare

Wireless technology based pervasive healthcare has been proposed in many applications such as disease management and accident prevention for cost saving and promoting citizen’s wellbeing. However, the emphasis so far is on the artefacts with limited attentions to guiding the development of an effective and efficient solution for pervasive healthcare. Therefore, this paper aims to propose a framework of multi-agent systems design for pervasive healthcare by adopting the concept of pervasive informatics and using the methods of organisational semiotics. The proposed multi-agent system for pervasive healthcare utilises sensory information to support healthcare professionals for providing appropriate care. The key contributions contain theoretical aspect and practical aspect. In theory, this paper articulates the information interactions between the pervasive healthcare environment and stakeholders by using the methods of organisational semiotics; in practice, the proposed framework improves the healthcare quality by providing appropriate medical attentions when and as needed. In this paper, both systems and functional architecture of the multi-agent system are elaborated with the use of wireless technologies such as RFID and wireless sensor networks. The future study will focus on the implementation of the proposed framework.

Plant-symbiotic fungi as chemical engineers: multi-genome analysis of the Clavicipitaceae reveals dynamics of alkaloid Loci

The fungal family Clavicipitaceae includes plant symbionts and parasites that produce several psychoactive and bioprotective alkaloids. The family includes grass symbionts in the epichloae clade (Epichloë and Neotyphodium species), which are extraordinarily diverse both in their host interactions and in their alkaloid profiles. Epichloae produce alkaloids of four distinct classes, all of which deter insects, and some—including the infamous ergot alkaloids—have potent effects on mammals. The exceptional chemotypic diversity of the epichloae may relate to their broad range of host interactions, whereby some are pathogenic and contagious, others are mutualistic and vertically transmitted (seed-borne), and still others vary in pathogenic or mutualistic behavior. We profiled the alkaloids and sequenced the genomes of 10 epichloae, three ergot fungi (Claviceps species), a morning-glory symbiont (Periglandula ipomoeae), and a bamboo pathogen (Aciculosporium take), and compared the gene clusters for four classes of alkaloids. Results indicated a strong tendency for alkaloid loci to have conserved cores that specify the skeleton structures and peripheral genes that determine chemical variations that are known to affect their pharmacological specificities. Generally, gene locations in cluster peripheries positioned them near to transposon-derived, AT-rich repeat blocks, which were probably involved in gene losses, duplications, and neofunctionalizations. The alkaloid loci in the epichloae had unusual structures riddled with large, complex, and dynamic repeat blocks. This feature was not reflective of overall differences in repeat contents in the genomes, nor was it characteristic of most other specialized metabolism loci. The organization and dynamics of alkaloid loci and abundant repeat blocks in the epichloae suggested that these fungi are under selection for alkaloid diversification. We suggest that such selection is related to the variable life histories of the epichloae, their protective roles as symbionts, and their associations with the highly speciose and ecologically diverse cool-season grasses.