Contribution of land use changes to near-surface air temperatures during recent summer extreme heat events in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

The impact of 1973–2005 land use–land cover (LULC) changes on near-surface air temperatures during four recent summer extreme heat events (EHEs) are investigated for the arid Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan area using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in conjunction with the Noah Urban Canopy Model. WRF simulations were carried out for each EHE using LULC for the years 1973, 1985, 1998, and 2005. Comparison of measured near-surface air temperatures and wind speeds for 18 surface stations in the region show a good agreement between observed and simulated data for all simulation periods. The results indicate consistent significant contributions of urban development and accompanying LULC changes to extreme temperatures for the four EHEs. Simulations suggest new urban developments caused an intensification and expansion of the area experiencing extreme temperatures but mainly influenced nighttime temperatures with an increase of up to 10 K. Nighttime temperatures in the existing urban core showed changes of up to 2 K with the ongoing LULC changes. Daytime temperatures were not significantly affected where urban development replaced desert land (increase by 1 K); however, maximum temperatures increased by 2–4 K when irrigated agricultural land was converted to suburban development. According to the model simulations, urban landscaping irrigation contributed to cooling by 0.5–1 K in maximum daytime as well as minimum nighttime 2-m air temperatures in most parts of the urban region. Furthermore, urban development led to a reduction of the already relatively weak nighttime winds and therefore a reduction in advection of cooler air into the city.

Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data

A number of methods of evaluating the validity of interval forecasts of financial data are analysed, and illustrated using intraday FTSE100 index futures returns. Some existing interval forecast evaluation techniques, such as the Markov chain approach of Christoffersen (1998), are shown to be inappropriate in the presence of periodic heteroscedasticity. Instead, we consider a regression-based test, and a modified version of Christoffersen's Markov chain test for independence, and analyse their properties when the financial time series exhibit periodic volatility. These approaches lead to different conclusions when interval forecasts of FTSE100 index futures returns generated by various GARCH(1,1) and periodic GARCH(1,1) models are evaluated.

Eigenvalues of a one-dimensional Dirac operator pencil

We study the spectrum of a one-dimensional Dirac operator pencil, with a coupling constant in front of the potential considered as the spectral parameter. Motivated by recent investigations of graphene waveguides, we focus on the values of the coupling constant for which the kernel of the Dirac operator contains a square integrable function. In physics literature such a function is called a confined zero mode. Several results on the asymptotic distribution of coupling constants giving rise to zero modes are obtained. In particular, we show that this distribution depends in a subtle way on the sign variation and the presence of gaps in the potential. Surprisingly, it also depends on the arithmetic properties of certain quantities determined by the potential. We further observe that variable sign potentials may produce complex eigenvalues of the operator pencil. Some examples and numerical calculations illustrating these phenomena are presented.

Real-time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions

We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple-vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Detection of flooded urban areas in high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images using double scattering

Flooding is a particular hazard in urban areas worldwide due to the increased risks to life and property in these regions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors are often used to image flooding because of their all-weather day-night capability, and now possess sufficient resolution to image urban flooding. The flood extents extracted from the images may be used for flood relief management and improved urban flood inundation modelling. A difficulty with using SAR for urban flood detection is that, due to its side-looking nature, substantial areas of urban ground surface may not be visible to the SAR due to radar layover and shadow caused by buildings and taller vegetation. This paper investigates whether urban flooding can be detected in layover regions (where flooding may not normally be apparent) using double scattering between the (possibly flooded) ground surface and the walls of adjacent buildings. The method estimates double scattering strengths using a SAR image in conjunction with a high resolution LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) height map of the urban area. A SAR simulator is applied to the LiDAR data to generate maps of layover and shadow, and estimate the positions of double scattering curves in the SAR image. Observations of double scattering strengths were compared to the predictions from an electromagnetic scattering model, for both the case of a single image containing flooding, and a change detection case in which the flooded image was compared to an un-flooded image of the same area acquired with the same radar parameters. The method proved successful in detecting double scattering due to flooding in the single-image case, for which flooded double scattering curves were detected with 100% classification accuracy (albeit using a small sample set) and un-flooded curves with 91% classification accuracy. The same measures of success were achieved using change detection between flooded and un-flooded images. Depending on the particular flooding situation, the method could lead to improved detection of flooding in urban areas.

Experimentally driven atomistic model of 1,2 Polybutadiene

We present an efficient method of combining wide angle neutron scattering data with detailed atomistic models, allowing us to perform a quantitative and qualitative mapping of the organisation of the chain conformation in both glass and liquid phases. The structural refinement method presented in this work is based on the exploitation of the intrachain features of the diffraction pattern and its intimate linkage with atomistic models by the use of internal coordinates for bond lengths, valence angles and torsion rotations. Atomic connectivity is defined through these coordinates that are in turn assigned by pre-defined probability distributions, thus allowing for the models in question to be built stochastically. Incremental variation of these coordinates allows for the construction of models that minimise the differences between the observed and calculated structure factors. We present a series of neutron scattering data of 1,2 polybutadiene at the region 120-400K. Analysis of the experimental data yield bond lengths for C-C and C=C of 1.54Å and 1.35Å respectively. Valence angles of the backbone were found to be at 112° and the torsion distributions are characterised by five rotational states, a three-fold trans-skew± for the backbone and gauche± for the vinyl group. Rotational states of the vinyl group were found to be equally populated, indicating a largely atactic chan. The two backbone torsion angles exhibit different behaviour with respect to temperature of their trans population, with one of them adopting an almost all trans sequence. Consequently the resulting configuration leads to a rather persistent chain, something indicated by the value of the characteristic ratio extrapolated from the model. We compare our results with theoretical predictions, computer simulations, RIS models and previously reported experimental results.

A multidimensional comparison of discourse organization in English and Chinese university students' argumentative writing

Three methodological limitations in English-Chinese contrastive rhetoric research have been identified in previous research, namely: the failure to control for the quality of L1 data; an inference approach to interpreting the relationship between L1 and L2 writing; and a focus on national cultural factors in interpreting rhetorical differences. Addressing these limitations, the current study examined the presence or absence and placement of thesis statement and topic sentences in four sets of argumentative texts produced by three groups of university students. We found that Chinese students tended to favour a direct/deductive approach in their English and Chinese writing, while native English writers typically adopted an indirect/inductive approach. This study argues for a dynamic and ecological interpretation of rhetorical practices in different languages and cultures.

Exposure to parabens at the concentration of maximal proliferative response increases migratory and invasive activity of human breast cancer cells in vitro

Alkyl esters of p–hydroxybenzoic acid (parabens) are widely used as preservatives in personal care products, foods and pharmaceuticals. Their oestrogenic activity, their measurement in human breast tissue and their ability to drive proliferation of oestrogen-responsive human breast cancer cells has opened a debate on their potential to influence breast cancer development. Since proliferation is not the only hallmark of cancer cells, we have investigated the effects of exposure to parabens at concentrations of maximal proliferative response on migratory and invasive properties using three oestrogen-responsive human breast cancer cell lines (MCF-7, T-47-D, ZR-75-1). Cells were maintained short-term (1 week) or long-term (20±2 weeks) in phenol-red-free medium containing 5% charcoal-stripped serum with no addition, 10-8M 17-oestradiol, 1-5x10-4M methylparaben, 10-5M n-propylparaben or 10-5M n-butylparaben. Long-term exposure (20±2 weeks) of MCF-7 cells to methylparaben, n-propylparaben or n-butylparaben increased migration as measured using a scratch assay, time-lapse microscopy and xCELLigence technology: invasive properties were found to increase in matrix degradation assays and migration through matrigel on xCELLigence. Western immunoblotting showed an associated downregulation of E-cadherin and -catenin in the long-term paraben-exposed cells which could be consistent with a mechanism involving epithelial to mesenchymal transition. Increased migratory activity was demonstrated also in long-term paraben-exposed T-47-D and ZR-75-1 cells using a scratch assay and time-lapse microscopy. This is the first report that in vitro, parabens can influence not only proliferation but also migratory and invasive properties of human breast cancer cells.

A comparison of GOCE and drifter-based estimates of the North Atlantic steady-state surface circulation

Over the last decade, due to the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and, more recently, the Gravity and steady state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) mission, our ability to measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography (MDT) from space has improved dramatically. Here we use GOCE to measure surface current speeds in the North Atlantic and compare our results with a range of independent estimates that use drifter data to improve small scales. We find that, with filtering, GOCE can recover 70% of the Gulf Steam strength relative to the best drifter-based estimates. In the subpolar gyre the boundary currents obtained from GOCE are close to the drifter-based estimates. Crucial to this result is careful filtering which is required to remove small-scale errors, or noise, in the computed surface. We show that our heuristic noise metric, used to determine the degree of filtering, compares well with the quadratic sum of mean sea surface and formal geoid errors obtained from the error variance–covariance matrix associated with the GOCE gravity model. At a resolution of 100 km the North Atlantic mean GOCE MDT error before filtering is 5 cm with almost all of this coming from the GOCE gravity model.

Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

1.Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. 2.Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land-use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus; a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall), and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. 3.Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs, and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. 4.Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. 5.Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will become worse over time. Our results suggest that forest restoration designed to reduce the detrimental impacts of agriculture on breeding may also help reduce the detrimental effects of breeding late due to wetter springs. Our results therefore highlight the importance of considering the interactive effects of environmental change when managing wild populations.