The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions.

Autistic traits modulate mimicry of social but not nonsocial rewards

Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC) are associated with diminished responsiveness to social stimuli, and especially to social rewards such as smiles. Atypical responsiveness to social rewards, which reinforce socially appropriate behavior in children, can potentially lead to a cascade of deficits in social behavior. Individuals with ASC often show diminished spontaneous mimicry of social stimuli in a natural setting. In the general population, mimicry is modulated both by the reward value and the sociality of the stimulus (i.e., whether the stimulus is perceived to belong to a conspecific or an inanimate object). Since empathy and autistic traits are distributed continuously in the general population, this study aimed to test if and how these traits modulated automatic mimicry of rewarded social and nonsocial stimuli. High and low rewards were associated with human and robot hands using a conditioned learning paradigm. Thirty-six participants from the general population then completed a mimicry task involving performing a prespecified hand movement which was either compatible or incompatible with a hand movement presented to the participant. High autistic traits (measured using the Autism Spectrum Quotient, AQ) predicted lesser mimicry of high-reward than low-reward conditioned human hands, whereas trait empathy showed an opposite pattern of correlations. No such relations were observed for high-reward vs. low-reward conditioned robot hands. These results demonstrate how autistic traits and empathy modulate the effects of reward on mimicry of social compared to nonsocial stimuli. This evidence suggests a potential role for the reward system in underlying the atypical social behavior in individuals with ASC, who constitute the extreme end of the spectrum of autistic traits.

Quantifying uncertainty in remotely sensed land cover maps

Remotely sensed land cover maps are increasingly used as inputs into environmental simulation models whose outputs inform decisions and policy-making. Risks associated with these decisions are dependent on model output uncertainty, which is in turn affected by the uncertainty of land cover inputs. This article presents a method of quantifying the uncertainty that results from potential mis-classification in remotely sensed land cover maps. In addition to quantifying uncertainty in the classification of individual pixels in the map, we also address the important case where land cover maps have been upscaled to a coarser grid to suit the users’ needs and are reported as proportions of land cover type. The approach is Bayesian and incorporates several layers of modelling but is straightforward to implement. First, we incorporate data in the confusion matrix derived from an independent field survey, and discuss the appropriate way to model such data. Second, we account for spatial correlation in the true land cover map, using the remotely sensed map as a prior. Third, spatial correlation in the mis-classification characteristics is induced by modelling their variance. The result is that we are able to simulate posterior means and variances for individual sites and the entire map using a simple Monte Carlo algorithm. The method is applied to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales, a map used as an input into a current dynamic carbon flux model.

Crystal design approaches for the synthesis of paracetamol co-crystals

Crystal engineering principles were used to design three new co-crystals of paracetamol. A variety of potential cocrystal formers were initially identified from a search of the Cambridge Structural Database for molecules with complementary hydrogen-bond forming functionalities. Subsequent screening by powder X-ray diffraction of the products of the reaction of this library of molecules with paracetamol led to the discovery of new binary crystalline phases of paracetamol with trans-1,4- diaminocyclohexane (1); trans-1,4-di(4-pyridyl)ethylene (2); and 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethane (3). The co-crystals were characterized by IR spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, and 1H NMR spectroscopy. Single crystal X-ray structure analysis reveals that in all three co-crystals the co-crystal formers (CCF) are hydrogen bonded to the paracetamol molecules through O−H···N interactions. In co-crystals (1) and (2) the CCFs are interleaved between the chains of paracetamol molecules, while in co-crystal (3) there is an additional N−H···N hydrogen bond between the two components. A hierarchy of hydrogen bond formation is observed in which the best donor in the system, the phenolic O−H group of paracetamol, is preferentially hydrogen bonded to the best acceptor, the basic nitrogen atom of the co-crystal former. The geometric aspects of the hydrogen bonds in co-crystals 1−3 are discussed in terms of their electrostatic and charge-transfer components.

Co3M2S2 (M ¼ Sn, In) shandites as tellurium-free thermoelectrics

Chemical substitution in Co3Sn2-xInxS2 (0 # x # 2) enables tuning of the Fermi level within narrow bands of Co d-states. This results in a compositionally induced double metal–semiconductor–metal transition and manipulation of the thermoelectric power factor. The maximum power factor (14 mW cm-1 K-2) is found for x ¼ 0.85, which corresponds to ZT z 0.2 at 300 K.

A copper-containing oxytelluride as a promising thermoelectric material for waste heat recovery

The new thermoelectric material BiOCuTe exhibits an electrical conductivity of 224 S cm-1 and a Seebeck coefficient of +186 μV K-1 at 373 K, together with an extremely low lattice thermal conductivity of ∼ 0.5 W m-1 K-1. This results in a ZT of 0.42 at 373 K, which increases to 0.66 at the maximum temperature investigated, 673 K.

A synchrotron powder X-ray diffraction study of the skutterudite-related phases AB1.5Te1.5 (A=Co, Rh, Ir; B= Ge, Sn)

X-ray resonant scattering has been exploited to investigate the crystal structure of the AB1.5Te1.5 phases (A = Co, Rh, Ir; B = Ge, Sn). Analysis of the diffraction data reveals that CoGe1.5Te1.5 and ASn1.5Te1.5 adopt a rhombohedral skutterudite-related structure, containing diamond-shape B2Te2 rings, in which the B and Te atoms are ordered and trans to each other. Anion ordering is however incomplete, and with increasing the size of both cations and anions, the degree of anion ordering decreases. By contrast, the diffraction data of IrGe1.5Te1.5 are consistent with an almost statistical distribution of the anions over the available sites, although some ordered domains may be present. The thermoelectric properties of these materials are discussed in the light of these results.

A finite element-spherical harmonics model for radiative transfer in inhomogeneous clouds. Part II. some applications

EVENT has been used to examine the effects of 3D cloud structure, distribution, and inhomogeneity on the scattering of visible solar radiation and the resulting 3D radiation field. Large eddy simulation and aircraft measurements are used to create realistic cloud fields which are continuous or broken with smooth or uneven tops. The values, patterns and variance in the resulting downwelling and upwelling radiation from incident visible solar radiation at different angles are then examined and compared to measurements. The results from EVENT confirm that 3D cloud structure is important in determining the visible radiation field, and that these results are strongly influenced by the solar zenith angle. The results match those from other models using visible solar radiation, and are supported by aircraft measurements of visible radiation, providing confidence in the new model.

Millennial climatic fluctuations are key to the structure of last glacial ecosystems

Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM) in “normal” and “hosing” experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The “hosing” experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the “normal” experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems.

The aluminium content of breast tissue taken from women with breast cancer

The aetiology of breast cancer is multifactorial. While there are known genetic predispositions to the disease it is probable that environmental factors are also involved. Recent research has demonstrated a regionally specific distribution of aluminium in breast tissue mastectomies while other work has suggested mechanisms whereby breast tissue aluminium might contribute towards the aetiology of breast cancer. We have looked to develop microwave digestion combined with a new form of graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry as a precise, accurate and reproducible method for the measurement of aluminium in breast tissue biopsies. We have used this method to test the thesis that there is a regional distribution of aluminium across the breast in women with breast cancer. Microwave digestion of whole breast tissue samples resulted in clear homogenous digests perfectly suitable for the determination of aluminium by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. The instrument detection limit for the method was 0.48 μg/L. Method blanks were used to estimate background levels of contamination of 14.80 μg/L. The mean concentration of aluminium across all tissues was 0.39 μg Al/g tissue dry wt. There were no statistically significant regionally specific differences in the content of aluminium. We have developed a robust method for the precise and accurate measurement of aluminium in human breast tissue. There are very few such data currently available in the scientific literature and they will add substantially to our understanding of any putative role of aluminium in breast cancer. While we did not observe any statistically significant differences in aluminium content across the breast it has to be emphasised that herein we measured whole breast tissue and not defatted tissue where such a distribution was previously noted. We are very confident that the method developed herein could now be used to provide accurate and reproducible data on the aluminium content in defatted tissue and oil from such tissues and thereby contribute towards our knowledge on aluminium and any role in breast cancer.

Planning at the neighbourhood scale: localism, dialogic politics and the modulation of community action

This paper builds upon literature examining the foreclosing of community interventions to show how a resident-led anti-road-noise campaign in South-Eastern England has been framed, managed and modulated by authorities. We situate the case within wider debates considering dialogical politics. For advocates, this offers the potential for empowerment through non-traditional forums (Beck, 1994; Giddens, 1994). Others view such trends, most recently expressed as part of the localism agenda, with suspicion (Haughton et al, 2013; Mouffe, 2005). The paper brings together these literatures to analyse the points at which modulation occurs in the community planning process. We describe the types of counter-tactics residents deployed to deflect the modulation of their demands, and the events that led to the outcome. We find that community planning offers a space - albeit one that is tightly circumscribed - within which (select) groups can effect change. The paper argues that the detail of neighbourhood-scale actions warrant further attention, especially as governmental enthusiasm for dialogical modes of politics shows no sign of abating.

Unsteady flow simulation of a vertical axis augmented wind turbine: a two-dimensional study

As the integration of vertical axis wind turbines in the built environment is a promising alternative to horizontal axis wind turbines, a 2D computational investigation of an augmented wind turbine is proposed and analysed. In the initial CFD analysis, three parameters are carefully investigated: mesh resolution; turbulence model; and time step size. It appears that the mesh resolution and the turbulence model affect result accuracy; while the time step size examined, for the unsteady nature of the flow, has small impact on the numerical results. In the CFD validation of the open rotor with secondary data, the numerical results are in good agreement in terms of shape. It is, however, observed a discrepancy factor of 2 between numerical and experimental data. Successively, the introduction of an omnidirectional stator around the wind turbine increases the power and torque coefficients by around 30–35% when compared to the open case; but attention needs to be given to the orientation of the stator blades for optimum performance. It is found that the power and torque coefficients of the augmented wind turbine are independent of the incident wind speed considered.

The potential of 1 h refractivity changes from an operational C-band magnetron-based radar for numerical weather prediction validation and data assimilation

Refractivity changes (ΔN) derived from radar ground clutter returns serve as a proxy for near-surface humidity changes (1 N unit ≡ 1% relative humidity at 20 °C). Previous studies have indicated that better humidity observations should improve forecasts of convection initiation. A preliminary assessment of the potential of refractivity retrievals from an operational magnetron-based C-band radar is presented. The increased phase noise at shorter wavelengths, exacerbated by the unknown position of the target within the 300 m gate, make it difficult to obtain absolute refractivity values, so we consider the information in 1 h changes. These have been derived to a range of 30 km with a spatial resolution of ∼4 km; the consistency of the individual estimates (within each 4 km × 4 km area) indicates that ΔN errors are about 1 N unit, in agreement with in situ observations. Measurements from an instrumented tower on summer days show that the 1 h refractivity changes up to a height of 100 m remain well correlated with near-surface values. The analysis of refractivity as represented in the operational Met Office Unified Model at 1.5, 4 and 12 km grid lengths demonstrates that, as model resolution increases, the spatial scales of the refractivity structures improve. It is shown that the magnitude of refractivity changes is progressively underestimated at larger grid lengths during summer. However, the daily time series of 1 h refractivity changes reveal that, whereas the radar-derived values are very well correlated with the in situ observations, the high-resolution model runs have little skill in getting the right values of ΔN in the right place at the right time. This suggests that the assimilation of these radar refractivity observations could benefit forecasts of the initiation of convection.

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.