The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (“high-top”) and models that do not (“low-top”). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (Dec-Mar) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation/QBO) and how they relate to predictive skill on intra-seasonal to seasonal timescales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high-latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

The Stephen Dwoskin dossier: introduction

This dossier aims to consider the contribution Stephen Dwoskin and his work made to the development of film and its infrastructure in the UK from 1964 when he arrived in the London until his death in 2012. Dwoskin not only straddled different contexts and ideologies about film but advocated for the support of work in a wide variety of forms. Because of this he was not easily categorizeable. Much of the work analyzing his camera work and his contribution to film is written in French and there is little, particularly in recent years, in English. As such this dossier constituted an important contribution to the reassessment of a singular avant-garde artist and film maker. (can I use avant garde here?) In the light of his recent death this is a timely moment for a consideration of Dwoskin’s achievements and legacy. As well as having a groundbreaking vision of what film could do, he was an influential figure and constituting force in terms of the milieu and structures that supported the independent film world in the UK for several decades. Much of the literature surrounding this world in the UK has been formed by key figures making sense of their part in history. This dossier aims towards some first steps in historicising his legacy. Two of the proposed texts will be making use of new material to conduct original research made available through the recently acquired Dwoskin Archive at University of Reading. Due to Dowksin’s heterogenous involvement in film, there are many ways in which Dwoskin can be considered and the proposed essays will take a range of perspectives to assess and analyse his contribution.