The case for property in the long run: a cointegration test

The benefits of property in the mixed asset portfolio has been the subject of a number of studies both in the UK and around the world. The traditional way of investigating this issue is to use MPT with the results suggesting that Property should play a significant role in the mixed asset portfolio. These results are not without criticism and generally revolve around quality and quantity of the property data series. To overcome these deficiencies this paper uses cointegration methodology which examines the longer term time series behaviour of various asset markets using a very long run desmoothed data series. Using a number of different cointegration tests, both pair-wise and multivariate, the results show, in unambiguous terms, that there is no contemporous cointegration between the major asset classes Property, Equities and Bonds. The implications of which are that Property does indeed have a risk reducing place to play in the long-run strategic mixed-asset portfolio. A result of particular relevance to institutions such as pension funds and life insurance companies who would wish to hold investments for the long-term.

The conditional performance of UK property funds

The evaluation of investment fund performance has been one of the main developments of modern portfolio theory. Most studies employ the technique developed by Jensen (1968) that compares a particular fund's returns to a benchmark portfolio of equal risk. However, the standard measures of fund manager performance are known to suffer from a number of problems in practice. In particular previous studies implicitly assume that the risk level of the portfolio is stationary through the evaluation period. That is unconditional measures of performance do not account for the fact that risk and expected returns may vary with the state of the economy. Therefore many of the problems encountered in previous performance studies reflect the inability of traditional measures to handle the dynamic behaviour of returns. As a consequence Ferson and Schadt (1996) suggest an approach to performance evaluation called conditional performance evaluation which is designed to address this problem. This paper utilises such a conditional measure of performance on a sample of 27 UK property funds, over the period 1987-1998. The results of which suggest that once the time varying nature of the funds beta is corrected for, by the addition of the market indicators, the average fund performance show an improvement over that of the traditional methods of analysis.

The initial return performance of UK property company IPOs

This paper presents empirical evidence for a sample of 48 UK property company initial public offerings over the period 1986 to 1995. From which a number of conclusions can be drawn. First, property companies in general show positive average first day returns. Second, the average first day return by property trading companies is significantly higher than that for property investment companies

Asset allocation, cross-class correlation and the structure of property returns

Practical applications of portfolio optimisation tend to proceed on a “top down” basis where funds are allocated first at asset class level (between, say, bonds, cash, equities and real estate) and then, progressively, at sub-class level (within property to sectors, office, retail, industrial for example). While there are organisational benefits from such an approach, it can potentially lead to sub-optimal allocations when compared to a “global” or “side-by-side” optimisation. This will occur where there are correlations between sub-classes across the asset divide that are masked in aggregation – between, for instance, City offices and the performance of financial services stocks. This paper explores such sub-class linkages using UK monthly stock and property data. Exploratory analysis using clustering procedures and factor analysis suggests that property performance and equity performance are distinctive: there is little persuasive evidence of contemporaneous or lagged sub-class linkages. Formal tests of the equivalence of optimised portfolios using top-down and global approaches failed to demonstrate significant differences, whether or not allocations were constrained. While the results may be a function of measurement of market returns, it is those returns that are used to assess fund performance. Accordingly, the treatment of real estate as a distinct asset class with diversification potential seems justified.

The timing and selection ability of UK property funds: an empirical investigation

This paper examines the selectivity and market timing performance of a sample of 21 UK property funds over the period Q3 1977 through to Q2 1987. The main finding of which that there is evidence of some superior selectivity performance on the part of UK property funds but that there are few funds who are able to successfully time the market.

Is there a place for property in the multi-asset portfolio?

The case for property has typically rested on the application of modern portfolio theory (MPT), in that property has been shown to offer increased diversification benefits within a multi asset portfolio without hurting portfolio returns especially for lower risk portfolios. However this view is based upon the use of historic, usually appraisal based, data for property. Recent research suggests strongly that such data significantly underestimates the risk characteristics of property, because appraisals explicitly or implicitly smooth out much of the real volatility in property returns. This paper examines the portfolio diversification effects of including property in a multi-asset portfolio, using UK appraisal based (smoothed) data and several derived de-smoothed series. Having considered the effects of de-smoothing, we then consider the inclusion of a further low risk asset (cash) in order to investigate further whether property's place in a low risk portfolio is maintained. The conclusions of this study are that the previous supposed benefits of including property have been overstated. Although property may still have a place in a 'balanced' institutional portfolio, the case for property needs to be reassessed and not be based simplistically on the application of MPT.

The future returns for property required by UK pension funds

In the 1970s Real Estate represented over 17% of the average pension funds total assets. Today such funds hold less than 4%, a figure not seen since the 1960s. This reduction in Real Estate holdings is mainly attributable to the relatively poor performance of Real Estate against other asset classes since the 1980s. Whether pension funds will increase their holding at any point in the future depends therefore on the expected return of Real Estate by comparison with that required to justify a particular asset holding. Using the technique of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), this paper assesses the required return that Real Estate would have to offer to justify a 15% holding in a mixed asset portfolio. This figure and the risk/return characteristics of the major asset classes is taken from survey data. Under a number of scenarios it is found that Real Estate can play a part in a mixed asset portfolio at the 15% level. In some cases however, the expected returns of Real Estate are not sufficient to justify a weight of 15% in this asset.

The future returns for property required by UK pension funds: the BHS data

Previous studies of the place of Property in the multi-asset portfolio have generally relied on historical data, and have been concerned with the supposed risk reduction effects that Property would have on such portfolios. In this paper a different approach has been taken. Not only are expectations data used, but we have also concentrated upon the required return that Property would have to offer to achieve a holding of 15% in typical UK pension fund portfolios. Using two benchmark portfolios for pension funds, we have shown that Property's required return is less than that expected, and therefore it could justify a 15% holding.

Property company performance and real interest rates: a regime-switching approach

Linear models of property market performance may be misspecified if there exist distinct states where the market drivers behave in different ways. This paper examines the applicability of non-linear regime-based models. A Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) model is applied to property company share data, using the real rate of interest to define regimes. Distinct regimes appear exhibiting markedly different market behaviour. The model both casts doubt on the specification of conventional linear models and offers the possibility of developing effective trading rules for real estate equities.

The challenge of self-regulation in commercial property leasing: a study of lease codes in the UK.

Purpose – UK Government policy to address perceived market failure in commercial property leasing has largely been pursued through industry self-regulation. Yet, it is proving difficult to assess whether self-regulation on leasing has been a “success”, or even to determine how to evaluate this. The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for this and a clearer understanding of self-regulation in commercial leasing. Design/methodology/approach – A literature review suggests key criteria to explain the (in)effectiveness of self-regulation. UK lease codes are analysed in the light of this literature, drawing on previous research carried out by the authors on the operation of these codes. Findings – Lease codes appear to be failing as an effective system of self-regulation. While there are influential market actors championing them, the fragmentation of the leasing process lessens this influence. The structures are not there to ensure implementation, monitor compliance and record views of affected stakeholders. Research limitations/implications – This work adds to the literature on self-regulation in general, and provides an insight into its operation in a previously unexplored industry. Research is needed into the experience of other countries in regulating the property industry by voluntary means. Social implications – There are institutional limitations to self-regulation within the property industry. This has implications for policy makers in considering the advantages and limitation of using a voluntary solution to achieve policy aims within the commercial leasing market. Originality/value – This paper provides a first step in considering the lease codes in the wider context of industry self-regulation and is relevant to policy makers and industry bodies.

Building communities: reducing energy use in tenanted commercial property

Reducing energy use in tenanted commercial property requires a greater understanding of ‘buildings as communities’. Tenanted commercial properties represent: (1) the divergent communities that share specific buildings; and (2) the organizational communities represented by multi-site landlord and tenant companies. In any particular tenanted space the opportunity for environmental change is mediated (hindered or enabled) through the lease. This discussion draws on theoretical and practical understandings of (1) the socio-legal relationships of landlords, tenants and their advisors; (2) the real performance of engineering building services strategies to improve energy efficiency; (3) how organizational cultures affect the ability of the sector to engage with energy-efficiency strategies; and (4) the financial and economic basis of the relationship between owners and occupiers. The transformational complexity stems from: (1) the variety of commercial building stock; (2) the number of stakeholders (solicitors, investors, developers, agents, owners, tenants and facilities managers); (3) the fragmentation within the communities of practice; and (4) leasehold structures and language. An agenda is proposed for truly interdisciplinary research that brings together both the physical and the social sciences of energy use in buildings so that technological solutions are made effective by an understanding of the way that buildings are used and communities behave.

Facing the future: energy performance certificates and commercial property

Purpose – The paper aims to present the findings of a “situation review” of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), focusing on energy performance certificates (EPCs) to highlight areas of specific importance for the UK property investment community. The paper is based on research commissioned by the Investment Property Forum (IPF) and funded through the IPF Research Programme (2006-2009). Design/methodology/approach – Interviews were undertaken with experts from the fields of property investment and building engineering. The interviews were undertaken with to identify: the current knowledge of EPCs in the property investment sector; key issues with practical implementation of the legislation; and perceptions of the potential impacts of legislation, particularly in relation to value stakeholder and behaviour. Findings – The paper finds that, although the regulations have been published, there is still a need for clarification in the marketplace with regard to some of the detail of regulations and the certification process. The following areas are of most concern to property investors: costs of surveys; potential difficulties with the process; and a shortage of assessors. With respect to these impacts it is becoming clear that investors who have not yet started considering the EPBD and its requirements within their strategy are likely to face difficulties in the short term. The most significant value-related impacts of EPBD are expected to be value differentiation of properties and “price chipping” against the rental or capital value of the property, where an occupier or potential purchaser will use the recommendations contained within an EPC to force a reduction in value. The latter is expected to emerge in the short term, whereas the former is expected to be realised over the medium to long term. Both these impacts have potentially significant implications for property investment holdings and also future investment behaviour.

The property development industry and sustainable urban brownfield regeneration in England: an analysis of case studies in Thames Gateway and Greater Manchester

The property development industry is a key actor in UK brownfield regeneration projects. UK policy has attempted to interlink ‘sustainable development’ and ‘sustainable brownfield’ policy agendas, which have found an additional focus through the UK government’s ‘Sustainable Communities Plan’, part of a growing international emphasis on sustainable development. This paper examines the emergence of these agendas and related policies, and the role of the property development industry in the regeneration of six differing brownfield sites, based in Thames Gateway and Greater Manchester. Using a conceptual framework, the paper investigates aspects of the sustainability of these projects and highlights key lessons from them for both the UK and overseas. The research is based on structured interviews with a variety of stakeholders, including developers, planners, consultants and community representatives to highlight emerging best practice and related policy implications.