A global picture of the seasonal persistence of stratospheric ozone anomalies

Interannual anomalies in vertical profiles of stratospheric ozone, in both equatorial and extratropical regions, have been shown to exhibit a strong seasonal persistence, namely, extended temporal autocorrelations during certain times of the calendar year. Here we investigate the relationship between this seasonal persistence of equatorial and extratropical ozone anomalies using the SAGE‐corrected SBUV data set, which provides a long‐term ozone profile time series. For the regions of the stratosphere where ozone is under purely dynamical or purely photochemical control, the seasonal persistence of equatorial and extratropical ozone anomalies arises from distinct mechanisms but preserves an anticorrelation between tropical and extratropical anomalies established during the winter period. In the 16–10 hPa layer, where ozone is controlled by both dynamical and photochemical processes, equatorial ozone anomalies exhibit a completely different behavior compared to ozone anomalies above and below in terms of variability, seasonal persistence, and especially the relationship between equatorial and extratropical ozone. Cross‐latitude‐time correlations show that for the 16–10 hPa layer, Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical ozone anomalies show the same variability as equatorial ozone anomalies but lagged by 3–6 months. High correlation coefficients are observed during the time frame of seasonal persistence of ozone anomalies, which is June– December for equatorial ozone and shifts by approximately 3–6 months when going from the equatorial region to NH extratropics. Thus in the transition zone between dynamical and photochemical control, equatorial ozone anomalies established in boreal summer/autumn are mirrored by NH extratropical ozone anomalies with a time lag similar to transport time scales. Equatorial ozone anomalies established in boreal winter/spring are likewise correlated with ozone anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics with a time lag comparable to transport time scales, similar to what is seen in the NH. However, the correlations between equatorial and SH extratropical ozone in the 10–16 hPa layer are weak.

What is the climate system able to do ‘on its own’?

The climate of the Earth, like planetary climates in general, is broadly controlled by solar irradiation, planetary albedo and emissivity as well as its rotation rate and distribution of land (with its orography) and oceans. However, the majority of climate fluctuations that affect mankind are internal modes of the general circulation of the atmosphere and the oceans. Some of these modes, such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are quasi-regular and have some longer-term predictive skill; others like the Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation are chaotic and generally unpredictable beyond a few weeks. Studies using general circulation models indicate that internal processes dominate the regional climate and that some like ENSO events have even distinct global signatures. This is one of the reasons why it is so difficult to separate internal climate processes from external ones caused, for example, by changes in greenhouse gases and solar irradiation. However, the accumulation of the warmest seasons during the latest two decades is lending strong support to the forcing of the greenhouse gases. As models are getting more comprehensive, they show a gradually broader range of internal processes including those on longer time scales, challenging the interpretation of the causes of past and present climate events further.

Foreword: International Space Science Institute (ISSI) workshop on the Earth’s cryosphere and sea level change

Rising sea level is perhaps the most severe consequence of climate warming, as much of the world’s population and infrastructure is located near current sea level (Lemke et al. 2007). A major rise of a metre or more would cause serious problems. Such possibilities have been suggested by Hansen and Sato (2011) who pointed out that sea level was several metres higher than now during the Holsteinian and Eemian interglacials (about 250,000 and 120,000 years ago, respectively), even though the global temperature was then only slightly higher than it is nowadays. It is consequently of the utmost importance to determine whether such a sea level rise could occur and, if so, how fast it might happen. Sea level undergoes considerable changes due to natural processes such as the wind, ocean currents and tidal motions. On longer time scales, the sea level is influenced by steric effects (sea water expansion caused by temperature and salinity changes of the ocean) and by eustatic effects caused by changes in ocean mass. Changes in the Earth’s cryosphere, such as the retreat or expansion of glaciers and land ice areas, have been the dominant cause of sea level change during the Earth’s recent history. During the glacial cycles of the last million years, the sea level varied by a large amount, of the order of 100 m. If the Earth’s cryosphere were to disappear completely, the sea level would rise by some 65 m. The scientific papers in the present volume address the different aspects of the Earth’s cryosphere and how the different changes in the cryosphere affect sea level change. It represents the outcome of the first workshop held within the new ISSI Earth Science Programme. The workshop took place from 22 to 26 March, 2010, in Bern, Switzerland, with the objective of providing an in-depth insight into the future of mountain glaciers and the large land ice areas of Antarctica and Greenland, which are exposed to natural and anthropogenic climate influences, and their effects on sea level change. The participants of the workshop are experts in different fields including meteorology, climatology, oceanography, glaciology and geodesy; they use advanced space-based observational studies and state-of-the-art numerical modelling.

An experiment in the Assimilation of Data in Dynamical Analysis

A system for continuous data assimilation is presented and discussed. To simulate the dynamical development a channel version of a balanced barotropic model is used and geopotential (height) data are assimilated into the models computations as data become available. In the first experiment the updating is performed every 24th, 12th and 6th hours with a given network. The stations are distributed at random in 4 groups in order to simulate 4 areas with different density of stations. Optimum interpolation is performed for the difference between the forecast and the valid observations. The RMS-error of the analyses is reduced in time, and the error being smaller the more frequent the updating is performed. The updating every 6th hour yields an error in the analysis less than the RMS-error of the observation. In a second experiment the updating is performed by data from a moving satellite with a side-scan capability of about 15°. If the satellite data are analysed at every time step before they are introduced into the system the error of the analysis is reduced to a value below the RMS-error of the observation already after 24 hours and yields as a whole a better result than updating from a fixed network. If the satellite data are introduced without any modification the error of the analysis is reduced much slower and it takes about 4 days to reach a comparable result to the one where the data have been analysed.

Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change

Dynamics affects the distribution and abundance of stratospheric ozone directly through transport of ozone itself and indirectly through its effect on ozone chemistry via temperature and transport of other chemical species. Dynamical processes must be considered in order to understand past ozone changes, especially in the northern hemisphere where there appears to be significant low-frequency variability which can look “trend-like” on decadal time scales. A major challenge is to quantify the predictable, or deterministic, component of past ozone changes. Over the coming century, changes in climate will affect the expected recovery of ozone. For policy reasons it is important to be able to distinguish and separately attribute the effects of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases on both ozone and climate. While the radiative-chemical effects can be relatively easily identified, this is not so evident for dynamics — yet dynamical changes (e.g., changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation) could have a first-order effect on ozone over particular regions. Understanding the predictability and robustness of such dynamical changes represents another major challenge. Chemistry-climate models have recently emerged as useful tools for addressing these questions, as they provide a self-consistent representation of dynamical aspects of climate and their coupling to ozone chemistry. We can expect such models to play an increasingly central role in the study of ozone and climate in the future, analogous to the central role of global climate models in the study of tropospheric climate change.

Wave-activity conservation laws for the three-dimensional anelastic and Boussinesq equations with a horizontally homogeneous background flow

Wave-activity conservation laws are key to understanding wave propagation in inhomogeneous environments. Their most general formulation follows from the Hamiltonian structure of geophysical fluid dynamics. For large-scale atmospheric dynamics, the Eliassen–Palm wave activity is a well-known example and is central to theoretical analysis. On the mesoscale, while such conservation laws have been worked out in two dimensions, their application to a horizontally homogeneous background flow in three dimensions fails because of a degeneracy created by the absence of a background potential vorticity gradient. Earlier three-dimensional results based on linear WKB theory considered only Doppler-shifted gravity waves, not waves in a stratified shear flow. Consideration of a background flow depending only on altitude is motivated by the parameterization of subgrid-scales in climate models where there is an imposed separation of horizontal length and time scales, but vertical coupling within each column. Here we show how this degeneracy can be overcome and wave-activity conservation laws derived for three-dimensional disturbances to a horizontally homogeneous background flow. Explicit expressions for pseudoenergy and pseudomomentum in the anelastic and Boussinesq models are derived, and it is shown how the previously derived relations for the two-dimensional problem can be treated as a limiting case of the three-dimensional problem. The results also generalize earlier three-dimensional results in that there is no slowly varying WKB-type requirement on the background flow, and the results are extendable to finite amplitude. The relationship A E =cA P between pseudoenergy A E and pseudomomentum A P, where c is the horizontal phase speed in the direction of symmetry associated with A P, has important applications to gravity-wave parameterization and provides a generalized statement of the first Eliassen–Palm theorem.

On the tropospheric response to anomalous stratospheric wave drag and radiative heating

Observational and numerical evidence suggest that variability in the extratropical stratospheric circulation has a demonstrable impact on tropospheric variability on intraseasonal time scales. In this study, it is demonstrated that the amplitude of the observed tropospheric response to vacillations in the stratospheric flow is quantitatively similar to the zonal-mean balanced response to the anomalous wave forcing at stratospheric levels. It is further demonstrated that the persistence of the tropospheric response is consistent with the impact of anomalous diabatic heating in the polar stratosphere as stratospheric temperatures relax to climatology. The results contradict previous studies that suggest that variations in stratospheric wave drag are too weak to account for the attendant changes in the tropospheric flow. However, the results also reveal that stratospheric processes alone cannot account for the observed meridional redistribution of momentum within the troposphere.

Problems in four-dimensional data assimilation

With the introduction of new observing systems based on asynoptic observations, the analysis problem has changed in character. In the near future we may expect that a considerable part of meteorological observations will be unevenly distributed in four dimensions, i.e. three dimensions in space and one in time. The term analysis, or objective analysis in meteorology, means the process of interpolating observed meteorological observations from unevenly distributed locations to a network of regularly spaced grid points. Necessitated by the requirement of numerical weather prediction models to solve the governing finite difference equations on such a grid lattice, the objective analysis is a three-dimensional (or mostly two-dimensional) interpolation technique. As a consequence of the structure of the conventional synoptic network with separated data-sparse and data-dense areas, four-dimensional analysis has in fact been intensively used for many years. Weather services have thus based their analysis not only on synoptic data at the time of the analysis and climatology, but also on the fields predicted from the previous observation hour and valid at the time of the analysis. The inclusion of the time dimension in objective analysis will be called four-dimensional data assimilation. From one point of view it seems possible to apply the conventional technique on the new data sources by simply reducing the time interval in the analysis-forecasting cycle. This could in fact be justified also for the conventional observations. We have a fairly good coverage of surface observations 8 times a day and several upper air stations are making radiosonde and radiowind observations 4 times a day. If we have a 3-hour step in the analysis-forecasting cycle instead of 12 hours, which is applied most often, we may without any difficulties treat all observations as synoptic. No observation would thus be more than 90 minutes off time and the observations even during strong transient motion would fall within a horizontal mesh of 500 km * 500 km.

Some challenges of middle atmosphere data assimilation

The assimilation of measurements from the stratosphere and mesosphere is becoming increasingly common as the lids of weather prediction and climate models rise into the mesosphere and thermosphere. However, the dynamics of the middle atmosphere pose specific challenges to the assimilation of measurements from this region. Forecast-error variances can be very large in the mesosphere and this can render assimilation schemes very sensitive to the details of the specification of forecast error correlations. An example is shown where observations in the stratosphere are able to produce increments in the mesosphere. Such sensitivity of the assimilation scheme to misspecification of covariances can also amplify any existing biases in measurements or forecasts. Since both models and measurements of the middle atmosphere are known to have biases, the separation of these sources of bias remains a issue. Finally, well-known deficiencies of assimilation schemes, such as the production of imbalanced states or the assumption of zero bias, are proposed explanations for the inaccurate transport resulting from assimilated winds. The inability of assimilated winds to accurately transport constituents in the middle atmosphere remains a fundamental issue limiting the use of assimilated products for applications involving longer time-scales.

The troposphere-to-stratosphere transition in kinetic energy spectra and nonlinear spectral fluxes as seen in ECMWF analyses

Global horizontal wavenumber kinetic energy spectra and spectral fluxes of rotational kinetic energy and enstrophy are computed for a range of vertical levels using a T799 ECMWF operational analysis. Above 250 hPa, the kinetic energy spectra exhibit a distinct break between steep and shallow spectral ranges, reminiscent of dual power-law spectra seen in aircraft data and high-resolution general circulation models. The break separates a large-scale ‘‘balanced’’ regime in which rotational flow strongly dominates divergent flow and a mesoscale ‘‘unbalanced’’ regime where divergent energy is comparable to or larger than rotational energy. Between 230 and 100 hPa, the spectral break shifts to larger scales (from n 5 60 to n 5 20, where n is spherical harmonic index) as the balanced component of the flow preferentially decays. The location of the break remains fairly stable throughout the stratosphere. The spectral break in the analysis occurs at somewhat larger scales than the break seen in aircraft data. Nonlinear spectral fluxes defined for the rotational component of the flow maximize between about 300 and 200 hPa. Large-scale turbulence thus centers on the extratropical tropopause region, within which there are two distinct mechanisms of upscale energy transfer: eddy–eddy interactions sourcing the transient energy peak in synoptic scales, and zonal mean–eddy interactions forcing the zonal flow. A well-defined downscale enstrophy flux is clearly evident at these altitudes. In the stratosphere, the transient energy peak moves to planetary scales and zonal mean–eddy interactions become dominant.

Statistical characterization of arctic polar-night jet oscillation events

A novel diagnostic tool is presented, based on polar-cap temperature anomalies, for visualizing daily variability of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex over multiple decades. This visualization illustrates the ubiquity of extended-time-scale recoveries from stratospheric sudden warmings, termed here polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) events. These are characterized by an anomalously warm polar lower stratosphere that persists for several months. Following the initial warming, a cold anomaly forms in the middle stratosphere, as does an anomalously high stratopause, both of which descend while the lower-stratospheric anomaly persists. These events are characterized in four datasets: Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) temperature observations; the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses; and an ensemble of three 150-yr simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. The statistics of PJO events in the model are found to agree very closely with those of the observations and reanalyses. The time scale for the recovery of the polar vortex following sudden warmings correlates strongly with the depth to which the warming initially descends. PJO events occur following roughly half of all major sudden warmings and are associated with an extended period of suppressed wave-activity fluxes entering the polar vortex. They follow vortex splits more frequently than they do vortex displacements. They are also related to weak vortex events as identified by the northern annular mode; in particular, those weak vortex events followed by a PJO event show a stronger tropospheric response. The long time scales, predominantly radiative dynamics, and tropospheric influence of PJO events suggest that they represent an important source of conditional skill in seasonal forecasting.

Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere

In recent years a number of chemistry-climate models have been developed with an emphasis on the stratosphere. Such models cover a wide range of time scales of integration and vary considerably in complexity. The results of specific diagnostics are here analysed to examine the differences amongst individual models and observations, to assess the consistency of model predictions, with a particular focus on polar ozone. For example, many models indicate a significant cold bias in high latitudes, the “cold pole problem”, particularly in the southern hemisphere during winter and spring. This is related to wave propagation from the troposphere which can be improved by improving model horizontal resolution and with the use of non-orographic gravity wave drag. As a result of the widely differing modelled polar temperatures, different amounts of polar stratospheric clouds are simulated which in turn result in varying ozone values in the models. The results are also compared to determine the possible future behaviour of ozone, with an emphasis on the polar regions and mid-latitudes. All models predict eventual ozone recovery, but give a range of results concerning its timing and extent. Differences in the simulation of gravity waves and planetary waves as well as model resolution are likely major sources of uncertainty for this issue. In the Antarctic, the ozone hole has probably reached almost its deepest although the vertical and horizontal extent of depletion may increase slightly further over the next few years. According to the model results, Antarctic ozone recovery could begin any year within the range 2001 to 2008. The limited number of models which have been integrated sufficiently far indicate that full recovery of ozone to 1980 levels may not occur in the Antarctic until about the year 2050. For the Arctic, most models indicate that small ozone losses may continue for a few more years and that recovery could begin any year within the range 2004 to 2019. The start of ozone recovery in the Arctic is therefore expected to appear later than in the Antarctic.

Centrality and spectral radius in dynamic communication networks

We explore the influence of the choice of attenuation factor on Katz centrality indices for evolving communication networks. For given snapshots of a network observed over a period of time, recently developed communicability indices aim to identify best broadcasters and listeners in the network. In this article, we looked into the sensitivity of communicability indices on the attenuation factor constraint, in relation to spectral radius (the largest eigenvalue) of the network at any point in time and its computation in the case of large networks. We proposed relaxed communicability measures where the spectral radius bound on attenuation factor is relaxed and the adjacency matrix is normalised in order to maintain the convergence of the measure. Using a vitality based measure of both standard and relaxed communicability indices we looked at the ways of establishing the most important individuals for broadcasting and receiving of messages related to community bridging roles. We illustrated our findings with two examples of real-life networks, MIT reality mining data set of daily communications between 106 individuals during one year and UK Twitter mentions network, direct messages on Twitter between 12.4k individuals during one week.

Impact of anthropogenic heat emissions on London's temperatures

We investigate the role of the anthropogenic heat flux on the urban heat island of London. To do this, the time-varying anthropogenic heat flux is added to an urban surface-energy balance parametrization, the Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme (MORUSES), implemented in a 1 km resolution version of the UK Met Office Unified Model. The anthropogenic heat flux is derived from energy-demand data for London and is specified on the model's 1 km grid; it includes variations on diurnal and seasonal time-scales. We contrast a spring case with a winter case, to illustrate the effects of the larger anthropogenic heat flux in winter and the different roles played by thermodynamics in the different seasons. The surface-energy balance channels the anthropogenic heat into heating the urban surface, which warms slowly because of the large heat capacity of the urban surface. About one third of this additional warming goes into increasing the outgoing long-wave radiation and only about two thirds goes into increasing the sensible heat flux that warms the atmosphere. The anthropogenic heat flux has a larger effect on screen-level temperatures in the winter case, partly because the anthropogenic flux is larger then and partly because the boundary layer is shallower in winter. For the specific winter case studied here, the anthropogenic heat flux maintains a well-mixed boundary layer through the whole night over London, whereas the surrounding rural boundary layer becomes strongly stably stratified. This finding is likely to have important implications for air quality in winter. On the whole, inclusion of the anthropogenic heat flux improves the comparison between model simulations and measurements of screen-level temperature slightly and indicates that the anthropogenic heat flux is beginning to be an important factor in the London urban heat island.

Near-Earth initiation of a terrestrial substorm

Despite the characterization of the auroral substorm more than 40 years ago, controversy still surrounds the processes triggering substorm onset initiation. That stretching of the Earth's magnetotail following the addition of new nightside magnetic flux from dayside reconnection powers the substorm is well understood; the trigger for explosive energy release at substorm expansion phase onset is not. Using ground-based data sets with unprecedented combined spatial and temporal coverage, we report the discovery of new localized and contemporaneous magnetic wave and small azimuthal scale auroral signature of substorm onset. These local auroral arc undulations and magnetic field signatures rapidly evolve on second time scales for several minutes in advance of the release of the auroral surge. We also present evidence from a conjugate geosynchronous satellite of the concurrent magnetic onset in space as the onset of magnetic pulsations in the ionosphere, to within technique error. Throughout this time period, the more poleward arcs that correspond to the auroral oval which maps to the central plasma sheet remain undisturbed. There is good evidence that flows from the midtail crossing the plasma sheet can generate north-south auroral structures, yet no such auroral forms are seen in this event. Our observations present a severe challenge to the standard hypothesis that magnetic reconnection in stretched magnetotail fields triggers onset, indicating substorm expansion phase initiation occurs on field lines that are close to the Earth, as bounded by observations at geosynchronous orbit and in the conjugate ionosphere.