Impact of anthropogenic heat emissions on London's temperatures

We investigate the role of the anthropogenic heat flux on the urban heat island of London. To do this, the time-varying anthropogenic heat flux is added to an urban surface-energy balance parametrization, the Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme (MORUSES), implemented in a 1 km resolution version of the UK Met Office Unified Model. The anthropogenic heat flux is derived from energy-demand data for London and is specified on the model's 1 km grid; it includes variations on diurnal and seasonal time-scales. We contrast a spring case with a winter case, to illustrate the effects of the larger anthropogenic heat flux in winter and the different roles played by thermodynamics in the different seasons. The surface-energy balance channels the anthropogenic heat into heating the urban surface, which warms slowly because of the large heat capacity of the urban surface. About one third of this additional warming goes into increasing the outgoing long-wave radiation and only about two thirds goes into increasing the sensible heat flux that warms the atmosphere. The anthropogenic heat flux has a larger effect on screen-level temperatures in the winter case, partly because the anthropogenic flux is larger then and partly because the boundary layer is shallower in winter. For the specific winter case studied here, the anthropogenic heat flux maintains a well-mixed boundary layer through the whole night over London, whereas the surrounding rural boundary layer becomes strongly stably stratified. This finding is likely to have important implications for air quality in winter. On the whole, inclusion of the anthropogenic heat flux improves the comparison between model simulations and measurements of screen-level temperature slightly and indicates that the anthropogenic heat flux is beginning to be an important factor in the London urban heat island.

Heat and moisture budgets from airborne measurements and high-resolution model simulations

High-resolution simulations with a mesoscale model are performed to estimate heat and moisture budgets of a well-mixed boundary layer. The model budgets are validated against energy budgets obtained from airborne measurements over heterogeneous terrain in Western Germany. Time rate of change, vertical divergence, and horizontal advection for an atmospheric column of air are estimated. Results show that the time trend of specific humidity exhibits some deficiencies, while the potential temperature trend is matched accurately. Furthermore, the simulated turbulent surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat are comparable to the measured fluxes, leading to similar values of the vertical divergence. The analysis of different horizontal model resolutions exhibits improved surface fluxes with increased resolution, a fact attributed to a reduced aggregation effect. Scale-interaction effects could be identified: while time trends and advection are strongly influenced by mesoscale forcing, the turbulent surface fluxes are mainly controlled by microscale processes.

The simulation of the opposing fluxes of latent heat and CO2 over various land-use types: coupling a gas exchange model to a mesoscale atmospheric model

A mesoscale meteorological model (FOOT3DK) is coupled with a gas exchange model to simulate surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O under field conditions. The gas exchange model consists of a C3 single leaf photosynthesis sub-model and an extended big leaf (sun/shade) sub-model that divides the canopy into sunlit and shaded fractions. Simulated CO2 fluxes of the stand-alone version of the gas exchange model correspond well to eddy-covariance measurements at a test site in a rural area in the west of Germany. The coupled FOOT3DK/gas exchange model is validated for the diurnal cycle at singular grid points, and delivers realistic fluxes with respect to their order of magnitude and to the general daily course. Compared to the Jarvis-based big leaf scheme, simulations of latent heat fluxes with a photosynthesis-based scheme for stomatal conductance are more realistic. As expected, flux averages are strongly influenced by the underlying land cover. While the simulated net ecosystem exchange is highly correlated with leaf area index, this correlation is much weaker for the latent heat flux. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake is associated with transpirational water loss via the stomata, and the resulting opposing surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O are reproduced with the model approach. Over vegetated surfaces it is shown that the coupling of a photosynthesis-based gas exchange model with the land-surface scheme of a mesoscale model results in more realistic simulated latent heat fluxes.

Sustained striatal activity predicts eudaimonic well-being and cortisol output

Eudaimonic well-being—a sense of purpose, meaning, and engagement with life—is protective against psychopathology and predicts physical health, including lower levels of the stress hormone cortisol. Although it has been suggested that the ability to engage the neural circuitry of reward may promote well-being and mediate the relationship between well-being and health, this hypothesis has remained untested. To test this hypothesis, we had participants view positive, neutral, and negative images while fMRI data were collected. Individuals with sustained activity in the striatum and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex to positive stimuli over the course of the scan session reported greater well-being and had lower cortisol output. This suggests that sustained engagement of reward circuitry in response to positive events underlies well-being and adaptive regulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis.

What processes drive the ocean heat transport?

The ocean contributes to regulating the Earth’s climate through its ability to transport heat from the equator to the poles. In this study we use long simulations of an ocean model to investigate whether the heat transport is carried primarily by wind-driven gyres or whether it is dominated by deep circulations associated with abyssal mixing and high latitude convection. The heat transport is computed as a function of temperature classes. In the Pacific and Indian ocean, the bulk of the heat transport is associated with wind-driven gyres confined to the thermocline. In the Atlantic, the thermocline gyres account for only 40% of the total heat transport. The remaining 60% is associated with a circulation reaching down to cold waters below the thermocline. Using a series of sensitivity experiments, we show that this deep heat transport is primarily set by the strength and patterns of surface winds and only secondarily by diabatic processes at high latitudes in the North Atlantic. Abyssal mixing below 2000 m has hardly any impact on ocean heat transport. A major implication is that the role of the ocean in regulating Earth’s climate strongly depends on how surface winds change across different climates in both hemispheres at low and high latitudes.

Ocean heat transport and water vapor greenhouse in a warm equable climate: a new look at the low gradient paradox

The authors study the role of ocean heat transport (OHT) in the maintenance of a warm, equable, ice-free climate. An ensemble of idealized aquaplanet GCM calculations is used to assess the equilibrium sensitivity of global mean surface temperature and its equator-to-pole gradient (ΔT) to variations in OHT, prescribed through a simple analytical formula representing export out of the tropics and poleward convergence. Low-latitude OHT warms the mid- to high latitudes without cooling the tropics; increases by 1°C and ΔT decreases by 2.6°C for every 0.5-PW increase in OHT across 30° latitude. This warming is relatively insensitive to the detailed meridional structure of OHT. It occurs in spite of near-perfect atmospheric compensation of large imposed variations in OHT: the total poleward heat transport is nearly fixed. The warming results from a convective adjustment of the extratropical troposphere. Increased OHT drives a shift from large-scale to convective precipitation in the midlatitude storm tracks. Warming arises primarily from enhanced greenhouse trapping associated with convective moistening of the upper troposphere. Warming extends to the poles by atmospheric processes even in the absence of high-latitude OHT. A new conceptual model for equable climates is proposed, in which OHT plays a key role by driving enhanced deep convection in the midlatitude storm tracks. In this view, the climatic impact of OHT depends on its effects on the greenhouse properties of the atmosphere, rather than its ability to increase the total poleward energy transport.

Identification of micro-scale anthropogenic CO2, heat and moisture sources – processing eddy covariance fluxes for a dense urban environment

Anthropogenic emissions of heat and exhaust gases play an important role in the atmospheric boundary layer, altering air quality, greenhouse gas concentrations and the transport of heat and moisture at various scales. This is particularly evident in urban areas where emission sources are integrated in the highly heterogeneous urban canopy layer and directly linked to human activities which exhibit significant temporal variability. It is common practice to use eddy covariance observations to estimate turbulent surface fluxes of latent heat, sensible heat and carbon dioxide, which can be attributed to a local scale source area. This study provides a method to assess the influence of micro-scale anthropogenic emissions on heat, moisture and carbon dioxide exchange in a highly urbanized environment for two sites in central London, UK. A new algorithm for the Identification of Micro-scale Anthropogenic Sources (IMAS) is presented, with two aims. Firstly, IMAS filters out the influence of micro-scale emissions and allows for the analysis of the turbulent fluxes representative of the local scale source area. Secondly, it is used to give a first order estimate of anthropogenic heat flux and carbon dioxide flux representative of the building scale. The algorithm is evaluated using directional and temporal analysis. The algorithm is then used at a second site which was not incorporated in its development. The spatial and temporal local scale patterns, as well as micro-scale fluxes, appear physically reasonable and can be incorporated in the analysis of long-term eddy covariance measurements at the sites in central London. In addition to the new IMAS-technique, further steps in quality control and quality assurance used for the flux processing are presented. The methods and results have implications for urban flux measurements in dense urbanised settings with significant sources of heat and greenhouse gases.

Global to city scale urban anthropogenic heat flux: model and variability

The large scale urban consumption of energy (LUCY) model simulates all components of anthropogenic heat flux (QF) from the global to individual city scale at 2.5 × 2.5 arc-minute resolution. This includes a database of different working patterns and public holidays, vehicle use and energy consumption in each country. The databases can be edited to include specific diurnal and seasonal vehicle and energy consumption patterns, local holidays and flows of people within a city. If better information about individual cities is available within this (open-source) database, then the accuracy of this model can only improve, to provide the community data from global-scale climate modelling or the individual city scale in the future. The results show that QF varied widely through the year, through the day, between countries and urban areas. An assessment of the heat emissions estimated revealed that they are reasonably close to those produced by a global model and a number of small-scale city models, so results from LUCY can be used with a degree of confidence. From LUCY, the global mean urban QF has a diurnal range of 0.7–3.6 W m−2, and is greater on weekdays than weekends. The heat release from building is the largest contributor (89–96%), to heat emissions globally. Differences between months are greatest in the middle of the day (up to 1 W m−2 at 1 pm). December to February, the coldest months in the Northern Hemisphere, have the highest heat emissions. July and August are at the higher end. The least QF is emitted in May. The highest individual grid cell heat fluxes in urban areas were located in New York (577), Paris (261.5), Tokyo (178), San Francisco (173.6), Vancouver (119) and London (106.7). Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Perceived helplessness is associated with individual differences in the central motor output system

Learned helplessness is a maladaptive response to uncontrollable stress characterized by impaired motor escape responses, reduced motivation and learning deficits. There are important individual differences in the likelihood of becoming helpless following exposure to uncontrollable stress but little is known about the neural mechanisms underlying these individual differences. Here we used structural MRI to measure gray and white matter in individuals with chronic pain, a population at high risk for helplessness due to prolonged exposure to a poorly controlled stressor (pain). Given that self-reported helplessness is predictive of treatment outcomes in chronic pain, understanding such differences might provide valuable clinical insight. We found that the magnitude of self-reported helplessness correlated with cortical thickness in the supplementary motor area (SMA) and midcingulate cortex, regions implicated in cognitive aspects of motor behavior. We then examined the white matter connectivity of these regions and found that fractional anisotropy of connected white matter tracts along the corticospinal tract was associated with helplessness and mediated the relationship between SMA cortical thickness and helplessness. These data provide novel evidence that links individual differences in the motor output pathway with perceived helplessness over a chronic and poorly controlled stressor.

Impact of city changes and weather on anthropogenic heat flux in Europe 1995–2015

How people live, work, move from place to place, consume and the technologies they use all affect heat emissions in a city which influences urban weather and climate. Here we document changes to a global anthropogenic heat flux (QF) model to enhance its spatial (30′′ × 30′′ to 0.5° × 0.5°) resolution and temporal coverage (historical, current and future). QF is estimated across Europe (1995–2015), considering changes in temperature, population and energy use. While on average QF is small (of the order 1.9–4.6 W m−2 across all the urban areas of Europe), significant spatial variability is documented (maximum 185 W m−2). Changes in energy consumption due to changes in climate are predicted to cause a 13% (11%) increase in QF on summer (winter) weekdays. The largest impact results from changes in temperature conditions which influences building energy use; for winter, with the coldest February on record, the mean flux for urban areas of Europe is 4.56 W m−2 and for summer (warmest July on record) is 2.23 W m−2. Detailed results from London highlight the spatial resolution used to model the QF is critical and must be appropriate for the application at hand, whether scientific understanding or decision making.

Improving real-time estimates of output and inflation gaps with multiple-vintage models

Real-time estimates of output gaps and inflation gaps differ from the values that are obtained using data available long after the event. Part of the problem is that the data on which the real-time estimates are based is subsequently revised. We show that vector-autoregressive models of data vintages provide forecasts of post-revision values of future observations and of already-released observations capable of improving estimates of output and inflation gaps in real time. Our findings indicate that annual revisions to output and inflation data are in part predictable based on their past vintages.

Macroeconomic forecasting with mixed-frequency data: forecasting output growth in the United States

Many macroeconomic series, such as U.S. real output growth, are sampled quarterly, although potentially useful predictors are often observed at a higher frequency. We look at whether a mixed data-frequency sampling (MIDAS) approach can improve forecasts of output growth. The MIDAS specification used in the comparison uses a novel way of including an autoregressive term. We find that the use of monthly data on the current quarter leads to significant improvement in forecasting current and next quarter output growth, and that MIDAS is an effective way to exploit monthly data compared with alternative methods.

A copper-containing oxytelluride as a promising thermoelectric material for waste heat recovery

The new thermoelectric material BiOCuTe exhibits an electrical conductivity of 224 S cm-1 and a Seebeck coefficient of +186 μV K-1 at 373 K, together with an extremely low lattice thermal conductivity of ∼ 0.5 W m-1 K-1. This results in a ZT of 0.42 at 373 K, which increases to 0.66 at the maximum temperature investigated, 673 K.

The vertical structure of ocean heat transport

One of the most important contributions the ocean makes to Earth's climate is through its poleward heat transport: about 1.5 PW or more than 30% of that accomplished by the ocean-atmosphere system (Trenberth and Caron, 2001). Recently, concern has arisen over whether global warming could affect this heat transport (Watson et al., 2001), for example, reducing high latitude convection and triggering a collapse of the deep overturning circulation (Rahmstorf, 1995). While the consequences of abrupt changes in oceanic circulation should be of concern, we argue that the attention devoted to deep circulations is disproportionate to their role in heat transport. For this purpose, we introduce a heat function which identifies the contribution to the heat transport by different components of the oceanic circulation. A new view of the ocean emerges in which a shallow surface intensified circulation dominates the poleward heat transport.

Optical dating of quartz from young samples and the effects of pre-heat temperature

The optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) signal within quartz may be enhanced by thermal transfer during pre-heating. This may occur via a thermally induced charge transfer from low temperature traps to the OSL traps. Thermal transfer may affect both natural and artificially irradiated samples. The effect, as empirically measured via recuperation tests, is typically observed to be negligible for old samples (<1% of natural signal). However, thermal transfer remains a major concern in the dating of young samples as thermal decay and transfers of geologically unstable traps (typically in the TL range 160–280°C) may be incomplete. Upon pre-heating such a sample might undergo thermal transfer to the dating trap and result in a De overestimate. As a result, there has been a tendency for workers to adopt less rigorous pre-heats for young samples. We have investigated the pre-heat dependence of 23 young quartz samples from various depositional environments using pre-heats between 170°C and 300°C, employing the single aliquot regeneration (SAR) protocol. SAR De's were also calculated for 25 additional young quartz samples of different depositional environments and compared with previous multiple aliquot additive dose (MAAD) data. Results demonstrate no significant De dependence upon pre-heat temperatures. A close correspondence between MAAD data and the current SAR data for the samples tested is also illustrated.