The ocean's gravitational potential energy budget in a coupled climate model

This study examines, in a unified fashion, the budgets of ocean gravitational potential energy (GPE) and available gravitational potential energy (AGPE) in the control simulation of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3. Only AGPE can be converted into kinetic energy by adiabatic processes. Diapycnal mixing supplies GPE, but not AGPE, whereas the reverse is true of the combined effect of surface buoyancy forcing and convection. Mixing and buoyancy forcing, thus, play complementary roles in sustaining the large scale circulation. However, the largest globally integrated source of GPE is resolved advection (+0.57 TW) and the largest sink is through parameterized eddy transports (-0.82 TW). The effect of these adiabatic processes on AGPE is identical to their effect on GPE, except for perturbations to both budgets due to numerical leakage exacerbated by non-linearities in the equation of state.

Late Quaternary hydrological dynamics in the Middle Kalahari: forcing and feedbacks

The Kalahari region has become a major source of Quaternary palaeoenvironmental data derived primarily from the analysis of geomorphological proxies of environmental change. One suite of data, from palaeolacustrine landforms, has recently provided a new record of major hydrological changes in the last 150 ka [Burrough, S. L., Thomas, D. S. G., Bailey, R. M., 2009. Mega-Lake in the Kalahari: A Late Pleistocene record of the Palaeolake Makgadikgadi system. Quaternary Science Reviews, in press.]. Here we present an improved analysis of the drivers and feedbacks of lake level change, utilising information from three main sources: data from the lake system itself, from analyses of other late Quaternary records within the region and from climate modelling. Simulations using the Hadley Centre coupled climate model, HadCM3, suggest that once triggered, the lake body was large enough to potentially affect both local and regional climates. Surface waters and their interactions with the climate are therefore an important component of environmental dynamics during the late Quaternary. Through its capacity to couple Middle Kalahari environments to distant forcing mechanisms and to itself force environmental change, we demonstrate that the existence or absence of megalake Makgadikgadi adds a new level of complexity to the interpretations of environmental proxy records in southern Africa's summer rainfall zone.

Global estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite measurements

Atmospheric aerosols cause scattering and absorption of incoming solar radiation. Additional anthropogenic aerosols released into the atmosphere thus exert a direct radiative forcing on the climate system1. The degree of present-day aerosol forcing is estimated from global models that incorporate a representation of the aerosol cycles1–3. Although the models are compared and validated against observations, these estimates remain uncertain. Previous satellite measurements of the direct effect of aerosols contained limited information about aerosol type, and were confined to oceans only4,5. Here we use state-of-the-art satellitebased measurements of aerosols6–8 and surface wind speed9 to estimate the clear-sky direct radiative forcing for 2002, incorporating measurements over land and ocean. We use a Monte Carlo approach to account for uncertainties in aerosol measurements and in the algorithm used. Probability density functions obtained for the direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere give a clear-sky, global, annual average of 21.9Wm22 with standard deviation, 60.3Wm22. These results suggest that present-day direct radiative forcing is stronger than present model estimates, implying future atmospheric warming greater than is presently predicted, as aerosol emissions continue to decline10.

Estimates of aerosol radiative forcing from the MACC re-analysis

The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) provides an aerosol re-analysis starting from year 2003 for the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project. The re-analysis assimilates total aerosol optical depth retrieved by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to correct for model departures from observed aerosols. The reanalysis therefore combines satellite retrievals with the full spatial coverage of a numerical model. Re-analysed products are used here to estimate the shortwave direct and first indirect radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols over the period 2003–2010, using methods previously applied to satellite retrievals of aerosols and clouds. The best estimate of globally-averaged, all-sky direct radiative forcing is −0.7±0.3Wm−2. The standard deviation is obtained by a Monte-Carlo analysis of uncertainties, which accounts for uncertainties in the aerosol anthropogenic fraction, aerosol absorption, and cloudy-sky effects. Further accounting for differences between the present-day natural and pre-industrial aerosols provides a direct radiative forcing estimate of −0.4±0.3Wm−2. The best estimate of globally-averaged, all-sky first indirect radiative forcing is −0.6±0.4Wm−2. Its standard deviation accounts for uncertainties in the aerosol anthropogenic fraction, and in cloud albedo and cloud droplet number concentration susceptibilities to aerosol changes. The distribution of first indirect radiative forcing is asymmetric and is bounded by −0.1 and −2.0Wm−2. In order to decrease uncertainty ranges, better observational constraints on aerosol absorption and sensitivity of cloud droplet number concentrations to aerosol changes are required.

Impact of the modal aerosol scheme GLOMAP-mode on aerosol forcing in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model

The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) includes two aerosol schemes: the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies in Climate (CLASSIC), and the new Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP-mode). GLOMAP-mode is a modal aerosol microphysics scheme that simulates not only aerosol mass but also aerosol number, represents internally-mixed particles, and includes aerosol microphysical processes such as nucleation. In this study, both schemes provide hindcast simulations of natural and anthropogenic aerosol species for the period 2000–2006. HadGEM simulations of the aerosol optical depth using GLOMAP-mode compare better than CLASSIC against a data-assimilated aerosol re-analysis and aerosol ground-based observations. Because of differences in wet deposition rates, GLOMAP-mode sulphate aerosol residence time is two days longer than CLASSIC sulphate aerosols, whereas black carbon residence time is much shorter. As a result, CLASSIC underestimates aerosol optical depths in continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere and likely overestimates absorption in remote regions. Aerosol direct and first indirect radiative forcings are computed from simulations of aerosols with emissions for the year 1850 and 2000. In 1850, GLOMAP-mode predicts lower aerosol optical depths and higher cloud droplet number concentrations than CLASSIC. Consequently, simulated clouds are much less susceptible to natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes when the microphysical scheme is used. In particular, the response of cloud condensation nuclei to an increase in dimethyl sulphide emissions becomes a factor of four smaller. The combined effect of different 1850 baselines, residence times, and abilities to affect cloud droplet number, leads to substantial differences in the aerosol forcings simulated by the two schemes. GLOMAP-mode finds a presentday direct aerosol forcing of −0.49Wm−2 on a global average, 72% stronger than the corresponding forcing from CLASSIC. This difference is compensated by changes in first indirect aerosol forcing: the forcing of −1.17Wm−2 obtained with GLOMAP-mode is 20% weaker than with CLASSIC. Results suggest that mass-based schemes such as CLASSIC lack the necessary sophistication to provide realistic input to aerosol-cloud interaction schemes. Furthermore, the importance of the 1850 baseline highlights how model skill in predicting present-day aerosol does not guarantee reliable forcing estimates. Those findings suggest that the more complex representation of aerosol processes in microphysical schemes improves the fidelity of simulated aerosol forcings.

Observations of the eruption of the Sarychev volcano and simulations using the HadGEM2 climate model

In June 2009 the Sarychev volcano located in the Kuril Islands to the northeast of Japan erupted explosively, injecting ash and an estimated 1.2 ± 0.2 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, making it arguably one of the 10 largest stratospheric injections in the last 50 years. During the period immediately after the eruption, we show that the sulfur dioxide (SO2) cloud was clearly detected by retrievals developed for the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite instrument and that the resultant stratospheric sulfate aerosol was detected by the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS) limb sounder and CALIPSO lidar. Additional surface‐based instrumentation allows assessment of the impact of the eruption on the stratospheric aerosol optical depth. We use a nudged version of the HadGEM2 climate model to investigate how well this state‐of‐the‐science climate model can replicate the distributions of SO2 and sulfate aerosol. The model simulations and OSIRIS measurements suggest that in the Northern Hemisphere the stratospheric aerosol optical depth was enhanced by around a factor of 3 (0.01 at 550 nm), with resultant impacts upon the radiation budget. The simulations indicate that, in the Northern Hemisphere for July 2009, the magnitude of the mean radiative impact from the volcanic aerosols is more than 60% of the direct radiative forcing of all anthropogenic aerosols put together. While the cooling induced by the eruption will likely not be detectable in the observational record, the combination of modeling and measurements would provide an ideal framework for simulating future larger volcanic eruptions.

Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall

The Sahelian drought of the 1970s–1990s was one of the largest humanitarian disasters of the past 50 years, causing up to 250,000 deaths and creating 10 million refugees1. It has been attributed to natural variability2–5, overgrazing6 and the impact of industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide7,8. Each mechanism can influence the Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, which is strongly coupled to Sahelian precipitation2,3. We suggest that sporadic volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere also strongly influence this gradient and cause Sahelian drought. Using de-trended observations from 1900 to 2010, we show that three of the four driest Sahelian summers were preceded by substantial Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions. We use a state-ofthe- art coupled global atmosphere–ocean model to simulate both episodic volcanic eruptions and geoengineering by continuous deliberate injection into the stratosphere. In either case, large asymmetric stratospheric aerosol loadings concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere are a harbinger of Sahelian drought whereas those concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere induce a greening of the Sahel. Further studies of the detailed regional impacts on the Sahel and other vulnerable areas are required to inform policymakers in developing careful consensual global governance before any practical solar radiation management geoengineering scheme is implemented.

Which of satellite- or model-based estimates is closer to reality for aerosol indirect forcing?

In their contribution to PNAS, Penner et al. (1) used a climate model to estimate the radiative forcing by the aerosol first indirect effect (cloud albedo effect) in two different ways: first, by deriving a statistical relationship between the logarithm of cloud droplet number concentration, ln Nc, and the logarithm of aerosol optical depth, ln AOD (or the logarithm of the aerosol index, ln AI) for present-day and preindustrial aerosol fields, a method that was applied earlier to satellite data (2), and, second, by computing the radiative flux perturbation between two simulations with and without anthropogenic aerosol sources. They find a radiative forcing that is a factor of 3 lower in the former approach than in the latter [as Penner et al. (1) correctly noted, only their “inline” results are useful for the comparison]. This study is a very interesting contribution, but we believe it deserves several clarifications.

Parameterization of contrails in the UK Met Office Climate Model

Persistent contrails are believed to currently have a relatively small but significant positive radiative forcing on climate. With air travel predicted to continue its rapid growth over the coming years, the contrail warming effect on climate is expected to increase. Nevertheless, there remains a high level of uncertainty in the current estimates of contrail radiative forcing. Contrail formation depends mostly on the aircraft flying in cold and moist enough air masses. Most studies to date have relied on simple parameterizations using averaged meteorological conditions. In this paper we take into account the short‐term variability in background cloudiness by developing an on‐line contrail parameterization for the UK Met Office climate model. With this parameterization, we estimate that for the air traffic of year 2002 the global mean annual linear contrail coverage was approximately 0.11%. Assuming a global mean contrail optical depth of 0.2 or smaller and assuming hexagonal ice crystals, the corresponding contrail radiative forcing was calculated to be less than 10 mW m−2 in all‐sky conditions. We find that the natural cloud masking effect on contrails may be significantly higher than previously believed. This new result is explained by the fact that contrails seem to preferentially form in cloudy conditions, which ameliorates their overall climate impact by approximately 40%.

Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change

Targets for stabilizing climate change are often based on considerations of the impacts of different levels of global warming, usually assessing the time of reaching a particular level of warming. However, some aspects of the Earth system, such as global mean temperatures1 and sea level rise due to thermal expansion2 or the melting of large ice sheets3, continue to respond long after the stabilization of radiative forcing. Here we use a coupled climate–vegetation model to show that in turn the terrestrial biosphere shows significant inertia in its response to climate change. We demonstrate that the global terrestrial biosphere can continue to change for decades after climate stabilization. We suggest that ecosystems can be committed to long-term change long before any response is observable: for example, we find that the risk of significant loss of forest cover in Amazonia rises rapidly for a global mean temperature rise above 2 °C. We conclude that such committed ecosystem changes must be considered in the definition of dangerous climate change, and subsequent policy development to avoid it.

An examination of climate sensitivity for idealised climate change experiments in an intermediate general circulation model

Radiative forcing and climate sensitivity have been widely used as concepts to understand climate change. This work performs climate change experiments with an intermediate general circulation model (IGCM) to examine the robustness of the radiative forcing concept for carbon dioxide and solar constant changes. This IGCM has been specifically developed as a computationally fast model, but one that allows an interaction between physical processes and large-scale dynamics; the model allows many long integrations to be performed relatively quickly. It employs a fast and accurate radiative transfer scheme, as well as simple convection and surface schemes, and a slab ocean, to model the effects of climate change mechanisms on the atmospheric temperatures and dynamics with a reasonable degree of complexity. The climatology of the IGCM run at T-21 resolution with 22 levels is compared to European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis data. The response of the model to changes in carbon dioxide and solar output are examined when these changes are applied globally and when constrained geographically (e.g. over land only). The CO2 experiments have a roughly 17% higher climate sensitivity than the solar experiments. It is also found that a forcing at high latitudes causes a 40% higher climate sensitivity than a forcing only applied at low latitudes. It is found that, despite differences in the model feedbacks, climate sensitivity is roughly constant over a range of distributions of CO2 and solar forcings. Hence, in the IGCM at least, the radiative forcing concept is capable of predicting global surface temperature changes to within 30%, for the perturbations described here. It is concluded that radiative forcing remains a useful tool for assessing the natural and anthropogenic impact of climate change mechanisms on surface temperature.

Updated radiative forcing estimates of 65 halocarbons and nonmethane hydrocarbons

The direct radiative forcing of 65 chlorofluorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, hydrofluoroethers, halons, iodoalkanes, chloroalkanes, bromoalkanes, perfluorocarbons and nonmethane hydrocarbons has been evaluated using a consistent set of infrared absorption cross sections. For the radiative transfer models, both line-by-line and random band model approaches were employed for each gas. The line-by-line model was first validated against measurements taken by the Airborne Research Interferometer Evaluation System (ARIES) of the U.K. Meteorological Office; the computed spectrally integrated radiance of agreed to within 2% with experimental measurements. Three model atmospheres, derived from a three-dimensional climatology, were used in the radiative forcing calculations to more accurately represent hemispheric differences in water vapor, ozone concentrations, and cloud cover. Instantaneous, clear-sky radiative forcing values calculated by the line-by-line and band models were in close agreement. The band model values were subsequently modified to ensure exact agreement with the line-by-line model values. Calibrated band model radiative forcing values, for atmospheric profiles with clouds and using stratospheric adjustment, are reported and compared with previous literature values. Fourteen of the 65 molecules have forcings that differ by more than 15% from those in the World Meteorological Organization [1999] compilation. Eleven of the molecules have not been reported previously. The 65-molecule data set reported here is the most comprehensive and consistent database yet available to evaluate the relative impact of halocarbons and hydrocarbons on climate change.

Sensitivity of direct radiative forcing by mineral dust to particle characteristics

Airborne dust affects the Earth's energy balance — an impact that is measured in terms of the implied change in net radiation (or radiative forcing, in W m-2) at the top of the atmosphere. There remains considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of direct forcing by airborne dust under current climate. Much of this uncertainty stems from simplified assumptions about mineral dust-particle size, composition and shape, which are applied in remote sensing retrievals of dust characteristics and dust-cycle models. Improved estimates of direct radiative forcing by dust will require improved characterization of the spatial variability in particle characteristics to provide reliable information dust optical properties. This includes constraints on: (1) particle-size distribution, including discrimination of particle subpopulations and quantification of the amount of dust in the sub-10 µm to <0.1 µm mass fraction; (2) particle composition, specifically the abundance of iron oxides, and whether particles consist of single or multi-mineral grains; (3) particle shape, including degree of sphericity and surface roughness, as a function of size and mineralogy; and (4) the degree to which dust particles are aggregated together. The use of techniques that measure the size, composition and shape of individual particles will provide a better basis for optical modelling.

Simulations of the impact of orbital forcing and ocean on the Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene

The importance of orbital forcing and ocean impact on the Asian summer monsoon in the Holocene is investigated by comparing simulations with a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM) and with the atmospheric component of this model (FSSTAM) forced with prescribed modern sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The results show: (1) the ocean amplifies the orbitally-induced increase in African monsoon precipitation, makes somewhat increase in southern India and damps the increase over the southeastern China. (2) The ocean could change the spatial distribution and local intensity of the orbitally-induced latitudinal atmospheric oscillation over the southeastern China and the subtropical western Pacific Ocean. (3) The orbital forcing mostly enhances the Asian summer precipitation in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. However, the ocean reduces the orbitally-induced summer precipitation and postpones the time of summer monsoon onset over the Asian monsoon region. (4) The orbital forcing considerably enhances the intensity of upper divergence, which is amplified by ocean further, over the eastern hemisphere. But the divergence is weaker in the FOAM simulations than in the FSSTAM simulations when the orbital forcing is fixed. (5) The orbital forcing can enhance the amplitude of precipitation variability over the subtropical Africa, the southeastern China and northwestern China, inversely, reduce it over central India and North China in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. The ocean obviously reduces the amplitude of precipitation variability over most of the Asian monsoon regions in the fixed orbital forcing simulations. (6) The areas characterized by increased summer precipitation in the long-term mean are mostly characterized by increased amplitude of short-term variability, whereas regions characterized by decreased precipitation are primarily characterized by decreased amplitude of short-term variability. However, the influences of orbital forcing or dynamical ocean on regional climate depend on the model.

Radiative forcing effect of ice-age dust

During glacial periods, dust deposition rates and inferred atmospheric concentrations were globally much higher than present. According to recent model results, the large enhancement of atmospheric dust content at the last glacial maximum (LGM) can be explained only if increases in the potential dust source areas are taken into account. Such increases are to be expected, due to effects of low precipitation and low atmospheric (CO2) on plant growth. Here the modelled three-dimensional dust fields from Mahowald et al. and modelled seasonally varying surface-albedo fields derived in a parallel manner, are used to quantify the mean radiative forcing due to modern (non-anthropogenic) and LGM dust. The effect of mineralogical provenance on the radiative properties of the dust is taken into account, as is the range of optical properties associated with uncertainties about the mixing state of the dust particles. The high-latitude (poleward of 45°) mean change in forcing (LGM minus modern) is estimated to be small (–0.9 to +0.2 W m–2), especially when compared to nearly –20 W m–2 due to reflection from the extended ice sheets. Although the net effect of dust over ice sheets is a positive forcing (warming), much of the simulated high-latitude dust was not over the ice sheets, but over unglaciated regions close to the expanded dust source region in central Asia. In the tropics the change in forcing is estimated to be overall negative, and of similarly large magnitude (–2.2 to –3.2 W m–2) to the radiative cooling effect of low atmospheric (CO2). Thus, the largest long-term climatic effect of the LGM dust is likely to have been a cooling of the tropics. Low tropical sea-surface temperatures, low atmospheric (CO2) and high atmospheric dust loading may be mutually reinforcing due to multiple positive feedbacks, including the negative radiative forcing effect of dust.