Are greenhouse gas signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods.

Sensitivities of a cyclone detection and tracking algorithm: individual tracks and climatology

Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity is assessed by applying an algorithm for the detection and tracking of synoptic scale cyclones to mean sea level pressure data. The method, originally developed for the Southern Hemisphere, is adapted for application in the Northern Hemisphere winter season. NCEP-Reanalysis data from 1958/59 to 1997/98 are used as input. The sensitivities of the results to particular parameters of the algorithm are discussed for both case studies and from a climatological point of view. Results show that the choice of settings is of major relevance especially for the tracking of smaller scale and fast moving systems. With an appropriate setting the algorithm is capable of automatically tracking different types of cyclones at the same time: Both fast moving and developing systems over the large ocean basins and smaller scale cyclones over the Mediterranean basin can be assessed. The climatology of cyclone variables, e.g., cyclone track density, cyclone counts, intensification rates, propagation speeds and areas of cyclogenesis and -lysis gives detailed information on typical cyclone life cycles for different regions. The lowering of the spatial and temporal resolution of the input data from full resolution T62/06h to T42/12h decreases the cyclone track density and cyclone counts. Reducing the temporal resolution alone contributes to a decline in the number of fast moving systems, which is relevant for the cyclone track density. Lowering spatial resolution alone mainly reduces the number of weak cyclones.

Acute ingestion of beetroot bread increases endothelium-independent vasodilation and lowers diastolic blood pressure in healthy men: a randomized controlled trial

Dietary nitrate, from beetroot, has been reported to lower blood pressure (BP) by the sequential reduction of nitrate to nitrite and further to NO in the circulation. However, the impact of beetroot on microvascular vasodilation and arterial stiffness is unknown. In addition, beetroot is consumed by only 4.5% of the UK population, whereas bread is a staple component of the diet. Thus, we investigated the acute effects of beetroot bread (BB) on microvascular vasodilation, arterial stiffness, and BP in healthy participants. Twenty-three healthy men received 200 g bread containing 100 g beetroot (1.1 mmol nitrate) or 200 g control white bread (CB; 0 g beetroot, 0.01 mmol nitrate) in an acute, randomized, open-label, controlled crossover trial. The primary outcome was postprandial microvascular vasodilation measured by laser Doppler iontophoresis and the secondary outcomes were arterial stiffness measured by Pulse Wave Analysis and Velocity and ambulatory BP measured at regular intervals for a total period of 6 h. Plasma nitrate and nitrite were measured at regular intervals for a total period of 7 h. The incremental area under the curve (0-6 h after ingestion of bread) for endothelium-independent vasodilation was greater (P = 0.017) and lower for diastolic BP (DBP; P = 0.032) but not systolic (P = 0.99) BP after BB compared with CB. These effects occurred in conjunction with increases in plasma and urinary nitrate (P < 0.0001) and nitrite (P < 0.001). BB acutely increased endothelium-independent vasodilation and decreased DBP. Therefore, enriching bread with beetroot may be a suitable vehicle to increase intakes of cardioprotective beetroot in the diet and may provide new therapeutic perspectives in the management of hypertension.

Trade-offs and responsiveness of the single-layer urban canopy parametrization in WRF: an offline evaluation using the MOSCEM optimization algorithm and field observations

For an increasing number of applications, mesoscale modelling systems now aim to better represent urban areas. The complexity of processes resolved by urban parametrization schemes varies with the application. The concept of fitness-for-purpose is therefore critical for both the choice of parametrizations and the way in which the scheme should be evaluated. A systematic and objective model response analysis procedure (Multiobjective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (MOSCEM) algorithm) is used to assess the fitness of the single-layer urban canopy parametrization implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The scheme is evaluated regarding its ability to simulate observed surface energy fluxes and the sensitivity to input parameters. Recent amendments are described, focussing on features which improve its applicability to numerical weather prediction, such as a reduced and physically more meaningful list of input parameters. The study shows a high sensitivity of the scheme to parameters characterizing roof properties in contrast to a low response to road-related ones. Problems in partitioning of energy between turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes are also emphasized. Some initial guidelines to prioritize efforts to obtain urban land-cover class characteristics in WRF are provided. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.

A modified PNN algorithm with optimal PD modeling using the orthogonal least squares method

In this paper a modified algorithm is suggested for developing polynomial neural network (PNN) models. Optimal partial description (PD) modeling is introduced at each layer of the PNN expansion, a task accomplished using the orthogonal least squares (OLS) method. Based on the initial PD models determined by the polynomial order and the number of PD inputs, OLS selects the most significant regressor terms reducing the output error variance. The method produces PNN models exhibiting a high level of accuracy and superior generalization capabilities. Additionally, parsimonious models are obtained comprising a considerably smaller number of parameters compared to the ones generated by means of the conventional PNN algorithm. Three benchmark examples are elaborated, including modeling of the gas furnace process as well as the iris and wine classification problems. Extensive simulation results and comparison with other methods in the literature, demonstrate the effectiveness of the suggested modeling approach.

A fast algorithm for sparse probability density function construction

A new sparse kernel density estimator is introduced. Our main contribution is to develop a recursive algorithm for the selection of significant kernels one at time using the minimum integrated square error (MISE) criterion for both kernel selection. The proposed approach is simple to implement and the associated computational cost is very low. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in constructing sparse kernel density estimators with competitive accuracy to existing kernel density estimators.

Randomized controlled trial of parent-enhanced CBT compared with individual CBT for obsessive-compulsive disorder in young people

Objective: Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) in young people can be effectively treated with Cognitive Behavior Therapy (CBT). Practice guidelines in the United Kingdom recommend that CBT be delivered with parental or family involvement; however, there is no evidence from randomized trials that this enhances effectiveness. The aim of this trial was to assess if CBT with high parental involvement was more effective than CBT with low parental involvement (individual CBT) in reducing symptoms of OCD. Method: Fifty young people ages 12–17 years with OCD were randomly allocated to individual CBT or parent-enhanced CBT. In parent-enhanced CBT parents attended all treatment sessions; in individual CBT, parents attended only Sessions 1, 7, and the final session. Participants received up to 14 sessions of CBT. Data were analyzed using intent-to-treat and per-protocol methods. The primary outcome measure was the Children’s Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsion Scale (Scahill et al., 1997). Results: Both forms of CBT significantly reduced symptoms of OCD and anxiety. Change in OCD symptoms was maintained at 6 months. Per-protocol analysis suggested that parent-enhanced CBT may be associated with significantly larger reductions in anxiety symptoms. Conclusions: High and low parental involvement in CBT for OCD in young people were both effective, and there was no evidence that 1 method of delivery was superior on the primary outcome measure. However, this study was small. Future trials should be adequately powered and examine interactions with the age of the young person and comorbid anxiety disorders.

Magnetic resonance imaging of a randomized controlled trial investigating predictors of recovery following psychological treatment in adolescents with moderate to severe unipolar depression: study protocol for Magnetic Resonance - Improving Mood with Psychoanalytic and Cognitive Therapies (MR-IMPACT)

Background Major depressive disorders (MDD) are a debilitating and pervasive group of mental illnesses afflicting many millions of people resulting in the loss of 110 million working days and more than 2,500 suicides per annum. Adolescent MDD patients attending NHS clinics show high rates of recurrence into adult life. A meta-analysis of recent research shows that psychological treatments are not as efficacious as previously thought. Modest treatment outcomes of approximately 65% of cases responding suggest that aetiological and clinical heterogeneity may hamper the better use of existing therapies and discovery of more effective treatments. Information with respect to optimal treatment choice for individuals is lacking, with no validated biomarkers to aid therapeutic decision-making. Methods/Design Magnetic resonance-Improving Mood with Psychoanalytic and Cognitive Therapies, the MR-IMPACT study, plans to identify brain regions implicated in the pathophysiology of depressions and examine whether there are specific behavioural or neural markers predicting remission and/or subsequent relapse in a subsample of depressed adolescents recruited to the IMPACT randomised controlled trial (Registration # ISRCTN83033550). Discussion MR-IMPACT is an investigative biomarker component of the IMPACT pragmatic effectiveness trial. The aim of this investigation is to identify neural markers and regional indicators of the pathophysiology of and treatment response for MDD in adolescents. We anticipate that these data may enable more targeted treatment delivery by identifying those patients who may be optimal candidates for therapeutic response.

FAMOUS, faster: using parallel computing techniques to accelerate the FAMOUS/HadCM3 climate model with a focus on the radiative transfer algorithm

We have optimised the atmospheric radiation algorithm of the FAMOUS climate model on several hardware platforms. The optimisation involved translating the Fortran code to C and restructuring the algorithm around the computation of a single air column. Instead of the existing MPI-based domain decomposition, we used a task queue and a thread pool to schedule the computation of individual columns on the available processors. Finally, four air columns are packed together in a single data structure and computed simultaneously using Single Instruction Multiple Data operations. The modified algorithm runs more than 50 times faster on the CELL’s Synergistic Processing Elements than on its main PowerPC processing element. On Intel-compatible processors, the new radiation code runs 4 times faster. On the tested graphics processor, using OpenCL, we find a speed-up of more than 2.5 times as compared to the original code on the main CPU. Because the radiation code takes more than 60% of the total CPU time, FAMOUS executes more than twice as fast. Our version of the algorithm returns bit-wise identical results, which demonstrates the robustness of our approach. We estimate that this project required around two and a half man-years of work.

Flavonoid-rich fruits and vegetables improve microvascular reactivity and inflammatory status in men at risk of cardiovascular disease – FLAVURS: a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Observed associations between increased fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption, particularly those F&Vs that are rich in flavonoids, and vascular health improvements require confirmation in adequately powered randomized controlled trials. OBJECTIVE: This study was designed to measure the dose-response relation between high-flavonoid (HF), low-flavonoid (LF), and habitual F&V intakes and vascular function and other cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk indicators. DESIGN: A single-blind, dose-dependent, parallel randomized controlled dietary intervention study was conducted. Male and female low-F&V consumers who had a ≥1.5-fold increased risk of CVD (n = 174) were randomly assigned to receive an HF F&V, an LF F&V, or a habitual diet, with HF and LF F&V amounts sequentially increasing by 2, 4, and 6 (+2, +4, and +6) portions/d every 6 wk over habitual intakes. Microvascular reactivity (laser Doppler imaging with iontophoresis), arterial stiffness [pulse wave velocity, pulse wave analysis (PWA)], 24-h ambulatory blood pressure, and biomarkers of nitric oxide (NO), vascular function, and inflammation were determined at baseline and at 6, 12, and 18 wk. RESULTS: In men, the HF F&V diet increased endothelium-dependent microvascular reactivity (P = 0.017) with +2 portions/d (at 6 wk) and reduced C-reactive protein (P = 0.001), E-selectin (P = 0.0005), and vascular cell adhesion molecule (P = 0.0468) with +4 portions/d (at 12 wk). HF F&Vs increased plasma NO (P = 0.0243) with +4 portions/d (at 12 wk) in the group as a whole. An increase in F&Vs, regardless of flavonoid content in the groups as a whole, mitigated increases in vascular stiffness measured by PWA (P = 0.0065) and reductions in NO (P = 0.0299) in the control group. CONCLUSION: These data support recommendations to increase F&V intake to ≥6 portions daily, with additional benefit from F&Vs that are rich in flavonoids, particularly in men with an increased risk of CVD. This trial was registered at www.controlled-trials.com as ISRCTN47748735.

A peak reduction scheduling algorithm for storage devices on the low voltage network

Reinforcing the Low Voltage (LV) distribution network will become essential to ensure it remains within its operating constraints as demand on the network increases. The deployment of energy storage in the distribution network provides an alternative to conventional reinforcement. This paper presents a control methodology for energy storage to reduce peak demand in a distribution network based on day-ahead demand forecasts and historical demand data. The control methodology pre-processes the forecast data prior to a planning phase to build in resilience to the inevitable errors between the forecasted and actual demand. The algorithm uses no real time adjustment so has an economical advantage over traditional storage control algorithms. Results show that peak demand on a single phase of a feeder can be reduced even when there are differences between the forecasted and the actual demand. In particular, results are presented that demonstrate when the algorithm is applied to a large number of single phase demand aggregations that it is possible to identify which of these aggregations are the most suitable candidates for the control methodology.

Apolipoprotein e genotype has a modest impact on the postprandial plasma response to meals of varying fat composition in healthy men in a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND:Apolioprotein E (APOE) genotype is reported to influence a person's fasting lipid profile and potentially the response to dietary fat manipulation. The impact of APOE genotype on the responsiveness to meals of varying fat composition is unknown. OBJECTIVE:We examined the effect of meals containing 50 g of fat rich in saturated fatty acids (SFAs), unsaturated fatty acids (UNSATs), or SFAs with fish oil (SFA-FO) on postprandial lipemia. METHOD:A randomized, controlled, test meal study was performed in men recruited according to the APOE genotype (n = 10 APOE3/3, n = 11 APOE3/E4). RESULTS:For the serum apoE response (meal × genotype interaction P = 0.038), concentrations were on average 8% lower after the UNSAT than the SFA-FO meal in APOE4 carriers (P = 0.015) only. In the genotype groups combined, there was a delay in the time to reach maximum triacylglycerol (TG) concentration (mean ± SEM: 313 ± 25 vs. 266 ± 27 min) and higher maximum nonesterified fatty acid (0.73 ± 0.05 vs. 0.60 ± 0.03 mmol/L) and glucose (7.92 ± 0.22 vs. 7.25 ± 0.22 mmol/L) concentrations after the SFA than the UNSAT meal, respectively (P ≤ 0.05). In the Svedberg flotation rate 60-400 TG-rich lipoprotein fraction, meal × genotype interactions were observed for incremental area under the curve (IAUC) for the TG (P = 0.038) and apoE (P = 0.016) responses with a 58% lower apoE IAUC after the UNSAT than the SFA meal (P = 0.017) in the E4 carriers. CONCLUSIONS:Our data indicate that APOE genotype had a modest impact on the postprandial response to meals of varying fat composition in normolipidemic men. The physiologic importance of greater apoE concentrations after the SFA-rich meals in APOE4 carriers may reflect an impact on TG-rich lipoprotein clearance from the circulation. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01522482.

Simple M-factor algorithm for improved estimation of the basic maximum usable frequency of radio waves reflected from the ionospheric F-region

The equations of Milsom are evaluated, giving the ground range and group delay of radio waves propagated via the horizontally stratified model ionosphere proposed by Bradley and Dudeney. Expressions for the ground range which allow for the effects of the underlying E- and F1-regions are used to evaluate the basic maximum usable frequency or M-factors for single F-layer hops. An algorithm for the rapid calculation of the M-factor at a given range is developed, and shown to be accurate to within 5%. The results reveal that the M(3000)F2-factor scaled from vertical-incidence ionograms using the standard URSI procedure can be up to 7.5% in error. A simple addition to the algorithm effects a correction to ionogram values to make these accurate to 0.5%.