A slugfest of intuitions: contextualism and experimental design

This paper considers ways that experimental design can affect judgments about informally presented context shifting experiments. Reasons are given to think that judgments about informal context shifting experiments are affected by an exclusive reliance on binary truth value judgments and by experimenter bias. Exclusive reliance on binary truth value judgments may produce experimental artifacts by obscuring important differences of degree between the phenomena being investigated. Experimenter bias is an effect generated when, for example, experimenters disclose (even unconsciously) their own beliefs about the outcome of an experiment. Eliminating experimenter bias from context shifting experiments makes it far less obvious what the “intuitive” responses to those experiments are. After it is shown how those different kinds of bias can affect judgments about informal context shifting experiments, those experiments are revised to control for those forms of bias. The upshot of these investigations is that participants in the contextualist debate who employ informal experiments should pay just as much attention to the design of their experiments as those who employ more formal experimental techniques if they want to avoid obscuring the phenomena they aim to uncover

Overexpression of coconut AINTEGUMENTA-like gene, CnANT, promotes in vitro regeneration in transgenic Arabidopsis

Knowledge of the molecular biological changes underlying the process of embryogenesis is important for the improvement of somatic embryogenesis of coconut. Among the transcription factors that control the transition from vegetative to embryogenic growth, members of APETALA2/Ethylene-responsive element binding protein domain family play an important role in promoting embryo development. Significant insights into the role of AP2 genes have been obtained by the ectopic expression of AP2 sub family genes in transgenic Arabidopsis. A homolog of the AINTEGUMENTA-like gene that encodes the two AP2 domains and the linker region was identified in the coconut genome. Phylogenetic analysis showed that this gene, CnANT, encodes a protein that branched with BABY BOOM/PLETHORA clade in the AINTEGUMENTA-like major clade and was similar to the oil palm EgAP2-1 protein. According to real time RT-PCR results, higher expression of CnANT was observed in more mature zygotic embryos. Also, high CnANT expression was recorded in embryogenic callus compared to other stages of somatic embryogenesis. We examined the effect of ectopic CnANT expression on the development and regenerative capacity of transgenic Arabidopsis. Overexpression of CnANT in Arabidopsis induced hormone free regeneration of explants. Furthermore, ectopic expression of CnANT enhanced regeneration in vitro and suggested a role for this gene in cell proliferation during in vitro culture.

Analysis of the seasonal cycle within the first international urban land-surface model comparison

A number of urban land-surface models have been developed in recent years to satisfy the growing requirements for urban weather and climate interactions and prediction. These models vary considerably in their complexity and the processes that they represent. Although the models have been evaluated, the observational datasets have typically been of short duration and so are not suitable to assess the performance over the seasonal cycle. The First International Urban Land-Surface Model comparison used an observational dataset that spanned a period greater than a year, which enables an analysis over the seasonal cycle, whilst the variety of models that took part in the comparison allows the analysis to include a full range of model complexity. The results show that, in general, urban models do capture the seasonal cycle for each of the surface fluxes, but have larger errors in the summer months than in the winter. The net all-wave radiation has the smallest errors at all times of the year but with a negative bias. The latent heat flux and the net storage heat flux are also underestimated, whereas the sensible heat flux generally has a positive bias throughout the seasonal cycle. A representation of vegetation is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for modelling the latent heat flux and associated sensible heat flux at all times of the year. Models that include a temporal variation in anthropogenic heat flux show some increased skill in the sensible heat flux at night during the winter, although their daytime values are consistently overestimated at all times of the year. Models that use the net all-wave radiation to determine the net storage heat flux have the best agreement with observed values of this flux during the daytime in summer, but perform worse during the winter months. The latter could result from a bias of summer periods in the observational datasets used to derive the relations with net all-wave radiation. Apart from these models, all of the other model categories considered in the analysis result in a mean net storage heat flux that is close to zero throughout the seasonal cycle, which is not seen in the observations. Models with a simple treatment of the physical processes generally perform at least as well as models with greater complexity.

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship of future climate change and adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al.; O’Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. A key goal of the current framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.

How do markets manage water resources? An experiment

We experimentally test how a private monopoly, a duopoly and a public utility allocate water of differing qualities to households and farmers. Most of our results are in line with the theoretical predictions. Overexploitation of the resources is observed independently of the market structure. Stock depletion for the public utility is the fastest, followed by the private duopoly and private monopoly. On the positive aspects of centralized public management, we find that the average quality to price ratio offered by the public monopoly is substantially higher than that offered by the private monopoly or duopoly.

The level of compliance with the International Code of marketing of breast-milk substitutes: does it matter to stock markets?

The present paper explores, theoretically, and empirically, whether compliance with the International Code of marketing of breast-milk substitutes impacts on financial performance measured by stock markets. The empirical analysis, which considers a 20-year period, shows that stock markets are indifferent to the level of compliance by manufacturers with the International Code. Two important issues emerge from this result. Based on our finding that financial performance as measured by stock markets cannot explain the level of compliance, the first issue refers to what alternative types of mechanisms drive manufacturers who comply the least with voluntary codes such as the International Code. Conversely, from our finding that stock markets do not reward the most compliant, the second issue raised is an inherent weakness of stock markets to fully incorporate social and environmental values.

Nonlocal office investors: anchored by their markets and impaired by their distance

Nonlocal investors purchase and sell investment property in a distant metropolitan area. In this study, we identify capital value underperformance for nonlocal investors on both sides of the transaction, when they purchase and when they sell. The commercial real estate transactions data include a national sample of office property occurring in more than 100 U.S. markets. Using propensity-score matched sample to control for selection bias, we find that nonlocal investors overpay on the purchase by an estimated 13.8 % and sell at an estimated 7 % discount. These disadvantages relative to local investors expand with the geographic distance separating investor and asset. Nonlocal investors fundamentally overvalue similar assets sold to each other relative to assets transacted between locals, and are less patient as sellers. The positive bias in overpayment is directly tied to office rent differentials between the asset and investor markets.

Measurements of stratospheric ozone at a mid-latitude observing station Valentia, Ireland (51.94° N, 10.25° W), using ground-based and ozonesonde observations from 1994 to 2009

Sixteen years (1994 – 2009) of ozone profiling by ozonesondes at Valentia Meteorological and Geophysical Observatory, Ireland (51.94° N, 10.23° W) along with a co-located MkIV Brewer spectrophotometer for the period 1993–2009 are analyzed. Simple and multiple linear regression methods are used to infer the recent trend, if any, in stratospheric column ozone over the station. The decadal trend from 1994 to 2010 is also calculated from the monthly mean data of Brewer and column ozone data derived from satellite observations. Both of these show a 1.5 % increase per decade during this period with an uncertainty of about ±0.25 %. Monthly mean data for March show a much stronger trend of ~ 4.8 % increase per decade for both ozonesonde and Brewer data. The ozone profile is divided between three vertical slots of 0–15 km, 15–26 km, and 26 km to the top of the atmosphere and a 11-year running average is calculated. Ozone values for the month of March only are observed to increase at each level with a maximum change of +9.2 ± 3.2 % per decade (between years 1994 and 2009) being observed in the vertical region from 15 to 26 km. In the tropospheric region from 0 to 15 km, the trend is positive but with a poor statistical significance. However, for the top level of above 26 km the trend is significantly positive at about 4 % per decade. The March integrated ozonesonde column ozone during this period is found to increase at a rate of ~6.6 % per decade compared with the Brewer and satellite positive trends of ~5 % per decade.

Futures trading, spot price volatility and market efficiency: evidence from European real estate securities futures

In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements. Firstly, a traditional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, the approach of Bessembinder & Seguin (1992) and the Gray’s (1996) Markov-switching-GARCH model are used to examine the impact of futures trading on the European real estate securities market. The results show that futures trading did not destabilize the underlying listed market. Importantly, the results also reveal that the introduction of a futures market has improved the speed and quality of information flowing to the spot market. Secondly, we assess the hedging effectiveness of the contracts using two alternative strategies (naïve and Ordinary Least Squares models). The empirical results also show that the contracts are effective hedging instruments, leading to a reduction in risk of 64 %.

Administrative costs of regulation and foreign direct investment: evidence from Standard Cost Model implementation in non-OECD countries

In recent years both developed and developing countries have experienced an increasing number of government initiatives dedicated to reducing the administrative costs (AC) imposed on businesses by regulation. We use a bi-linear fixed-effects model to analyze the extent to which government initiatives to reduce AC through the Standard Cost Model (SCM) attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) among 32 developing countries. Controlling for standard determinants of the SCM, we find that the SCM in most cases leads to higher FDI and that the benefits are more significant where the SCM has been implemented for a longer period.

Promoting mother–infant book sharing and infant attention and language development in an impoverished South African population: a pilot study

The low rates of child literacy in South Africa are cause for considerable concern. Research from the developed world shows that parental sharing of picture books with infants and young children is beneficial for child language and cognitive development, as well as literacy skills. We conducted a pilot study to examine whether such benefits might extend to an impoverished community in South Africa, by evaluating the impact of training mothers in book sharing with their 14–18 month old infants. Seventeen mothers received book sharing training; and 13 mothers did not, but instead received a comparison training in toy play. We assessed the mothers’ behavior during both book sharing and toy play before and after training, and we also assessed infant attention and language. Mothers receiving book sharing training engaged well with it, and they also benefited from it; thus, compared to the comparison group mothers, they became more sensitive, more facilitating, and more elaborative with their infants during book sharing, and they also became more sensitive to their infants during toy play. In addition, infants whose mothers received the book sharing training showed greater benefits than the comparison group infants in both their attention and language. Training in book sharing for families living in conditions of marked socio-economic adversity in South Africa has the potential to be of considerable benefit to child developmental progress. A large scale controlled trial is required to confirm this.

Galactic cosmic ray modulation near the heliospheric current sheet

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) both over decadal time scales (due to long-term, global HMF variations), and over time scales of a few hours (associated with solar wind structures such as coronal mass ejections or the heliospheric current sheet, HCS). Due to the close association between the HCS, the streamer belt, and the band of slow solar wind, HCS crossings are often associated with corotating interaction regions where fast solar wind catches up and compresses slow solar wind ahead of it. However, not all HCS crossings are associated with strong compressions. In this study we categorize HCS crossings in two ways: Firstly, using the change in magnetic polarity, as either away-to-toward (AT) or toward-to-away (TA) magnetic field directions relative to the Sun and, secondly, using the strength of the associated solar wind compression, determined from the observed plasma density enhancement. For each category, we use superposed epoch analyses to show differences in both solar wind parameters and GCR flux inferred from neutron monitors. For strong-compression HCS crossings, we observe a peak in neutron counts preceding the HCS crossing, followed by a large drop after the crossing, attributable to the so-called ‘snow-plough’ effect. For weak-compression HCS crossings, where magnetic field polarity effects are more readily observable, we instead observe that the neutron counts have a tendency to peak in the away magnetic field sector. By splitting the data by the dominant polarity at each solar polar region, we find that the increase in GCR flux prior to the HCS crossing is primarily from strong compressions in cycles with negative north polar fields due to GCR drift effects. Finally, we report on unexpected differences in GCR behavior between TA weak compressions during opposing polarity cycles.

Neural representation of reward in recovered depressed patients

These findings support the view that abnormal neural responses to reward may be an endophenotype for depression and a potential target for intervention and prevention strategies.

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 2. Comparison with the geomagnetic data

We investigate the relationship between interdiurnal variation geomagnetic activity indices, IDV and IDV(1d), corrected sunspot number, R{sub}C{\sub}, and the group sunspot number R{sub}G{\sub}. R{sub}C{\sub} uses corrections for both the “Waldmeier discontinuity”, as derived in Paper 1 [Lockwood et al., 2014c], and the “Wolf discontinuity” revealed by Leussu et al. [2013]. We show that the simple correlation of the geomagnetic indices with R{sub}C{\sub}{sup}n{\sup} or R{sub}G{\sub}{sup}n{\sup} masks a considerable solar cycle variation. Using IDV(1d) or IDV to predict or evaluate the sunspot numbers, the errors are almost halved by allowing for the fact that the relationship varies over the solar cycle. The results indicate that differences between R{sub}C{\sub} and R{sub}G{\sub} have a variety of causes and are highly unlikely to be attributable to errors in either R{sub}G{\sub} alone, as has recently been assumed. Because it is not known if R{sub}C{\sub} or R{sub}G{\sub} is a better predictor of open flux emergence before 1874, a simple sunspot number composite is suggested which, like R{sub}G{\sub}, enables modelling of the open solar flux for 1610 onwards in Paper 3, but maintains the characteristics of R{sub}C{\sub}.