Separating the influence of projected changes in air temperature and wind on patterns of sea level change and ocean heat content

We present ocean model sensitivity experiments aimed at separating the influence of the projected changes in the ���thermal��� (near-surface air temperature) and ���wind��� (near-surface winds) forcing on the patterns of sea level and ocean heat content. In the North Atlantic, the distribution of sea level change is more due to the ���thermal��� forcing, whereas it is more due to the ���wind��� forcing in the North Pacific; in the Southern Ocean, the ���thermal��� and ���wind��� forcing have a comparable influence. In the ocean adjacent to Antarctica the ���thermal��� forcing leads to an inflow of warmer waters on the continental shelves, which is somewhat attenuated by the ���wind��� forcing. The structure of the vertically integrated heat uptake is set by different processes at low and high latitudes: at low latitudes it is dominated by the heat transport convergence, whereas at high latitudes it represents a small residual of changes in the surface flux and advection of heat. The structure of the horizontally integrated heat content tendency is set by the increase of downward heat flux by the mean circulation and comparable decrease of upward heat flux by the subgrid-scale processes; the upward eddy heat flux decreases and increases by almost the same magnitude in response to, respectively, the ���thermal��� and ���wind��� forcing. Regionally, the surface heat loss and deep convection weaken in the Labrador Sea, but intensify in the Greenland Sea in the region of sea ice retreat. The enhanced heat flux anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic is mainly caused by the ���thermal��� forcing.

Methods to assess the effectiveness of naturally ventilated classrooms in Gauteng, South Africa

There is a tendency to reduce ventilation rates and natural or hybrid ventilation systems to ensure the conservation of energy in school buildings. However, high indoor pollutant concentration, due to natural or hybrid ventilation systems may have a significant adverse impact on the health and academic performance of pupils and students. Reviewed evidence shows that this can be detrimental to health and wellbeing in schools because of the learner density within a small area, eventually indicating that CO2 concentrations can rise to very high levels (about 4000 ppm) in classrooms during occupancy periods. In South Africa���s naturally ventilated classrooms, it is not clear whether the environmental conditions are conducive for learning. In addition, natural ventilation will be minimized given the fact that in cold, wet or windy weather, doors and windows will commonly remain closed. Evidence from literature based studies indicates that the significance of ventilation techniques is not understood satisfactorily and additional information concerning naturally ventilated schools has to be provided for better design and policy formulation. To develop a thorough understanding of the environments in classrooms, many other parameters have to be considered as well, such as outdoor air quality, CO2 concentrations, temperature and relative humidity and safety issues that may be important drawbacks for naturally ventilated schools. The aim of this paper is to develop a conceptual understanding of methods that can be implemented to assess the effectiveness of naturally ventilated classrooms in Gauteng, South Africa. A theoretical concept with an embedded practical methodology have been proposed for the research programme to investigate the relationship between ventilation rates and learning in schools in Gauteng , a province in South Africa. It is important that existing and future school buildings must include adequate outdoor ventilation, control of moisture, and avoidance of indoor exposures to microbiologic and chemical substances considered likely to have adverse effects in South Africa. Adequate ventilation in classrooms is necessary to reduce and/or eradicate the transmission of indoor pollutants.

Towards a unified approach for the determination of the bioaccessibility of organic pollutants

Bioaccessibility studies have been widely used as a research tool to determine the potential human exposure to ingested contaminants. More recently they have been practically applied for soil borne toxic elements. This paper reviews the application of bioaccessibility tests across a range of organic pollutants and contaminated matrices. Important factors are reported to be: the physiological relevance of the test, the components in the gut media, the size fraction chosen for the test and whether it contains a sorptive sink. The bioaccessibility is also a function of the composition of the matrix (e.g. organic carbon content of soils) and the physico-chemical characteristics of the pollutant under test. Despite the widespread use of these tests, there are a large number of formats used and very few validation studies with animal models. We propose a unified format for a bioaccessibility test for organic pollutants. The robustness of this test should first be confirmed through inter laboratory comparison, then tested in-vivo.

The interaction of moist convection and mid-level dry air in the advance of the onset of the Indian monsoon

The advance of the onset of the Indian monsoon is here explained in terms of a balance between the low-level monsoon flow and an over-running intrusion of mid-tropospheric dry air. The monsoon advances, over a period of about 6 weeks, from the south of the country to the northwest. Given that the low-level monsoon winds are westerly or southwesterly, and the midlevel winds northwesterly, the monsoon onset propagates upwind relative to midlevel flow, and perpendicular to the low-level flow, and is not directly caused by moisture flux toward the northwest. Lacking a conceptual model for the advance means that it has been hard to understand and correct known biases in weather and climate prediction models. The mid-level northwesterlies form a wedge of dry air that is deep in the far northwest of India and over-runs the monsoon flow. The dry layer is moistened from below by shallow cumulus and congestus clouds, so that the profile becomes much closer to moist adiabatic, and the dry layer is much shallower in the vertical, toward the southeast of India. The profiles associated with this dry air show how the most favourable environment for deep convection occurs in the south, and onset occurs here first. As the onset advances across India, the advection of moisture from the Arabian Sea becomes stronger, and the mid-level dry air is increasingly moistened from below. This increased moistening makes the wedge of dry air shallower throughout its horizontal extent, and forces the northern limit of moist convection to move toward the northwest. Wetting of the land surface by rainfall will further reinforce the north-westward progression, by sustaining the supply of boundary layer moisture and shallow cumulus. The local advance of the monsoon onset is coincident with weakening of the mid-level northwesterlies, and therefore weakened mid-level dry advection.

A comparative study of the characteristics of French Fries produced by deep fat frying and air frying

Air frying is being projected as an alternative to deep fat frying for producing snacks such as French Fries. In air frying, the raw potato sections are essentially heated in hot air containing fine oil droplets, which dehydrates the potato and attempts to impart the characteristics of traditionally produced French fries, but with a substantially lower level of fat absorbed in the product. The aim of this research is to compare: 1) the process dynamics of air frying with conventional deep fat frying under otherwise similar operating conditions, and 2) the products formed by the two processes in terms of color, texture, microstructure, calorimetric properties and sensory characteristics Although, air frying produced products with a substantially lower fat content but with similar moisture contents and color characteristics, it required much longer processing times, typically 21 minutes in relation to 9 minutes in the case of deep fat frying. The slower evolution of temperature also resulted in lower rates of moisture loss and color development reactions. DSC studies revealed that the extent of starch gelatinization was also lower in the case of air fried product. In addition, the two types of frying also resulted in products having significantly different texture and sensory characteristics.

OzFACE: the Australian savanna free air CO2 enrichment facility and its relevance to carbon-cycling issues in a tropical savanna

A free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) facility has recently been constructed in a tropical savanna in north-eastern Queensland, Australia. The system has a novel and cost-effective design and uses an industrial source of pure CO2 piped directly to the site. We describe the design details of this facility and assess the likely contribution it will make towards advancing our understanding of the direct impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 on savannas. These include addressing uncertainties about future shifts in the tree���grass balance and associated changes in carbon stocks, responses of C4 grasses in dry tropical environments, potential sequestration of soil carbon, and the modifications of CO2 responses by moisture and nutrient interactions. Tropical regions have been poorly represented in climate change research, and the work at the OzFACE facility will complement existing and ongoing FACE studies at temperate latitudes.

Effect of air-drying pre-treatment on the characterization of forest soil carbon pools

Archived soils could represent a valuable resource for the spatio-temporal inventory of soil carbon stability. However, archived soils are usually air-dried before storage and the impact of a drying pretreatment on physically and chemically-defined C fractions has not yet been fully assessed. Through the comparison of field-moist and corresponding air-dried (at 25oC for 2 weeks) forest soil samples, we examined the effect of air-drying on: a) the quantity and the quality of cold- (CWEC) and hot-water (HWEC) extractable C and b) the concentration of C in physically isolated fractions (free- and intra-aggregate light and organo-mineral). Soil samples were collected from the organic (O) and mineral (A and B) horizons of three different forest soils from southeastern England: (i) Cambisol under Pine (Pinus nigra); (ii) Cambisol under Beech (Fagus sylvatica) and (iii) Gleysol under oak (Quercus robur). CWEC concentrations for dry samples were up to 2 times greater than for corresponding field moist samples and had significantly (p < 0.001) higher phenolic content. However, the effect of drying pretreatment on HWEC, its phenolic content was not significant (p > 0.05) for most samples. Dried soils had significantly (p < 0.001) higher concentrations of free light-C while having lower concentrations of intra-aggregate-C when compared to moist samples (p < 0.001). However, fine silt and clay fractions were not significantly affected by the drying pretreatment (p=0.789). Therefore, based on the results obtained from gleysol and cambisol forest soils studied here, C contents in hot-water extractions and fine particle size physical fractions (< 25��m) seem to be robust measurements for evaluating C fractions in dried stored forest soils. Further soil types should be tested to evaluate the wider generality of these findings.

What is the shape of an air bubble on a liquid surface?

We have calculated the equilibrium shape of the axially symmetric meniscus along which a spherical bubble contacts a flat liquid surface, by analytically integrating the Young-Laplace equation in the presence of gravity, in the limit of large Bond numbers. This method has the advantage that it provides semi-analytical expressions for key geometrical properties of the bubble in terms of the Bond number. Results are in good overall agreement with experimental data and are consistent with fully numerical (Surface Evolver) calculations. In particular, we are able to describe how the bubble shape changes from hemispherical, with a shallow flat bottom, to lenticular, with a deeper, curved bottom, as the Bond number is decreased.

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea surface temperatures. This work quantifies a systematic bias in model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. Applying the methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975���2014.

An assessment of air-sea heat fluxes from ocean and coupled reanalyses

Sixteen monthly air���sea heat flux products from global ocean/coupled reanalyses are compared over 1993���2009 as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP). Objectives include assessing the global heat closure, the consistency of temporal variability, comparison with other flux products, and documenting errors against in situ flux measurements at a number of OceanSITES moorings. The ensemble of 16 ORA-IP flux estimates has a global positive bias over 1993���2009 of 4.2 �� 1.1 W m���2. Residual heat gain (i.e., surface flux + assimilation increments) is reduced to a small positive imbalance (typically, +1���2 W m���2). This compensation between surface fluxes and assimilation increments is concentrated in the upper 100 m. Implied steady meridional heat transports also improve by including assimilation sources, except near the equator. The ensemble spread in surface heat fluxes is dominated by turbulent fluxes (>40 W m���2 over the western boundary currents). The mean seasonal cycle is highly consistent, with variability between products mostly <10 W m���2. The interannual variability has consistent signal-to-noise ratio (~2) throughout the equatorial Pacific, reflecting ENSO variability. Comparisons at tropical buoy sites (10��S���15��N) over 2007���2009 showed too little ocean heat gain (i.e., flux into the ocean) in ORA-IP (up to 1/3 smaller than buoy measurements) primarily due to latent heat flux errors in ORA-IP. Comparisons with the Stratus buoy (20��S, 85��W) over a longer period, 2001���2009, also show the ORA-IP ensemble has 16 W m���2 smaller net heat gain, nearly all of which is due to too much latent cooling caused by differences in surface winds imposed in ORA-IP.

Assessment and improvement of biotransfer models to cow���s milk and beef used in exposure assessment tools for organic pollutants

The aim of this study was to assess and improve the accuracy of biotransfer models for the organic pollutants (PCBs, PCDD/Fs, PBDEs, PFCAs, and pesticides) into cow���s milk and beef used in human exposure assessment. Metabolic rate in cattle is known as a key parameter for this biotransfer, however few experimental data and no simulation methods are currently available. In this research, metabolic rate was estimated using existing QSAR biodegradation models of microorganisms (BioWIN) and fish (EPI-HL and IFS-HL). This simulated metabolic rate was then incorporated into the mechanistic cattle biotransfer models (RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA, and CKow). The goodness of fit tests showed that RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA model performances were significantly improved using either of the QSARs when comparing the new model outputs to observed data. The CKow model is the only one that separates the processes in the gut and liver. This model showed the lowest residual error of all the models tested when the BioWIN model was used to represent the ruminant metabolic process in the gut and the two fish QSARs were used to represent the metabolic process in the liver. Our testing included EUSES and CalTOX which are KOW-regression models that are widely used in regulatory assessment. New regressions based on the simulated rate of the two metabolic processes are also proposed as an alternative to KOW-regression models for a screening risk assessment. The modified CKow model is more physiologically realistic, but has equivalent usability to existing KOW-regression models for estimating cattle biotransfer of organic pollutants.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transatlantic flight routes and clear-air turbulence

The variation of wind-optimal transatlantic flight routes and their turbulence potential is investigated to understand how upper-level winds and large-scale flow patterns can affect the efficiency and safety of long-haul flights. In this study, the wind-optimal routes (WORs) that minimize the total flight time by considering wind variations are modeled for flights between John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York, New York, and Heathrow Airport (LHR) in London, United Kingdom, during two distinct winter periods of abnormally high and low phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection patterns. Eastbound WORs approximate the JFK���LHR great circle (GC) route following northerly shifted jets in the +NAO period. Those WORs deviate southward following southerly shifted jets during the ���NAO period, because eastbound WORs fly closely to the prevailing westerly jets to maximize tailwinds. Westbound WORs, however, spread meridionally to avoid the jets near the GC in the +NAO period to minimize headwinds. In the ���NAO period, westbound WORs are north of the GC because of the southerly shifted jets. Consequently, eastbound WORs are faster but have higher probabilities of encountering clear-air turbulence than westbound ones, because eastbound WORs are close to the jet streams, especially near the cyclonic shear side of the jets in the northern (southern) part of the GC in the +NAO (���NAO) period. This study suggests how predicted teleconnection weather patterns can be used for long-haul strategic flight planning, ultimately contributing to minimizing aviation���s impact on the environment

Indoor microclimate in a South Africa School: impact of indoor environmental factors

Demand for good indoor air quality is increasing as people recorgnise the risks to their health and productivity from indoor pollutants. There is a tendency to reduce ventilation rates to ensure energy conservation in buildings; in this instance schools. However, evidence reviewed shows that this can be detrimental to health and wellbeing in schools because of the learner density within a small area (1.8 - 2.4m2/person); eventually indicating that carbon dioxide (CO2) levels can rise to very high levels in classroom occupancy periods. A preliminary study to investigate the impact of indoor environmental parameters has been performed in a secondary school classroom in Pretoria, South Africa. Factors monitored include temperature, relative humidity, lighting, air velocities and CO2 concentrations. From the results low air velocities are recorded (i.e. 0.1-0.3m/s) impacting on the retention of CO2 build-up in the classroom. Results presented in this paper are the initial findings of ongoing research.

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions1. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of ���cumulative climate pollutants��� such as carbon dioxide versus ���short-lived climate pollutants��� (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20���40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century7, 8, 9, 10, which may be necessary to limit warming to ���well below 2�����C��� (ref. 1). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP11, 12, 13. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.