Calibration and evaluation of individual-based models using Approximate Bayesian Computation

This paper investigates the feasibility of using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to calibrate and evaluate complex individual-based models (IBMs). As ABC evolves, various versions are emerging, but here we only explore the most accessible version, rejection-ABC. Rejection-ABC involves running models a large number of times, with parameters drawn randomly from their prior distributions, and then retaining the simulations closest to the observations. Although well-established in some fields, whether ABC will work with ecological IBMs is still uncertain. Rejection-ABC was applied to an existing 14-parameter earthworm energy budget IBM for which the available data consist of body mass growth and cocoon production in four experiments. ABC was able to narrow the posterior distributions of seven parameters, estimating credible intervals for each. ABC’s accepted values produced slightly better fits than literature values do. The accuracy of the analysis was assessed using cross-validation and coverage, currently the best available tests. Of the seven unnarrowed parameters, ABC revealed that three were correlated with other parameters, while the remaining four were found to be not estimable given the data available. It is often desirable to compare models to see whether all component modules are necessary. Here we used ABC model selection to compare the full model with a simplified version which removed the earthworm’s movement and much of the energy budget. We are able to show that inclusion of the energy budget is necessary for a good fit to the data. We show how our methodology can inform future modelling cycles, and briefly discuss how more advanced versions of ABC may be applicable to IBMs. We conclude that ABC has the potential to represent uncertainty in model structure, parameters and predictions, and to embed the often complex process of optimizing an IBM’s structure and parameters within an established statistical framework, thereby making the process more transparent and objective.

Anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect in structure-forming ferrofluids

The magnetoviscous effect, change in viscosity with change in magnetic field strength, and the anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect, change in viscosity with orientation of magnetic field, have been a focus of interest since four decades. A satisfactory understanding of the microscopic origin of anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect in magnetic fluids is still a matter of debate and a field of intense research. Here, we present an extensive simulation study to understand the relation between the anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect and the underlying change in micro-structures of ferrofluids. Our results indicate that field-induced chain-like structures respond very differently depending on their orientation relative to the direction of an externally applied shear flow, which leads to a pronounced anisotropy of viscosity. In this work, we focus on three exemplary values of dipolar interaction strengths which correspond to weak, intermediate and strong interactions between dipolar colloidal particles. We compare our simulation results with an experimental study on cobalt-based ferrofluids as well as with an existing theoretical model called the chain model. A non-monotonic behaviour in the anisotropy of magnetoviscous effect is observed with increasing dipolar interaction strength and is explained in terms of micro-structure formation.

Joint retrievals of cloud and drizzle in marine boundary layer clouds using ground-based radar, lidar and zenith radiances

Active remote sensing of marine boundary-layer clouds is challenging as drizzle drops often dominate the observed radar reflectivity. We present a new method to simultaneously retrieve cloud and drizzle vertical profiles in drizzling boundary-layer clouds using surface-based observations of radar reflectivity, lidar attenuated backscatter, and zenith radiances under conditions when precipitation does not reach the surface. Specifically, the vertical structure of droplet size and water content of both cloud and drizzle is characterised throughout the cloud. An ensemble optimal estimation approach provides full error statistics given the uncertainty in the observations. To evaluate the new method, we first perform retrievals using synthetic measurements from large-eddy simulation snapshots of cumulus under stratocumulus, where cloud water path is retrieved with an error of 31 g m−2 . The method also performs well in non-drizzling clouds where no assumption of the cloud profile is required. We then apply the method to observations of marine stratocumulus obtained during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MAGIC deployment in the Northeast Pacific. Here, retrieved cloud water path agrees well with independent three-channel microwave radiometer retrievals, with a root mean square difference of 10–20 g m−2.

The atomic structure of low-index surfaces of the intermetallic compound InPd

The intermetallic compound InPd (CsCl type of crystal structure with a broad compositional range) is considered as a candidate catalyst for the steam reforming of methanol. Single crystals of this phase have been grown to study the structure of its three low-index surfaces under ultra-high vacuum conditions, using low energy electron diffraction (LEED), X-ray photoemission spectroscopy (XPS), and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM). During surface preparation, preferential sputtering leads to a depletion of In within the top few layers for all three surfaces. The near-surface regions remain slightly Pd-rich until annealing to ∼580 K. A transition occurs between 580 and 660 K where In segregates towards the surface and the near-surface regions become slightly In-rich above ∼660 K. This transition is accompanied by a sharpening of LEED patterns and formation of flat step-terrace morphology, as observed by STM. Several superstructures have been identified for the different surfaces associated with this process. Annealing to higher temperatures (≥750 K) leads to faceting via thermal etching as shown for the (110) surface, with a bulk In composition close to the In-rich limit of the existence domain of the cubic phase. The Pd-rich InPd(111) is found to be consistent with a Pd-terminated bulk truncation model as shown by dynamical LEED analysis while, after annealing at higher temperature, the In-rich InPd(111) is consistent with an In-terminated bulk truncation, in agreement with density functional theory (DFT) calculations of the relative surface energies. More complex surface structures are observed for the (100) surface. Additionally, individual grains of a polycrystalline sample are characterized by micro-spot XPS and LEED as well as low-energy electron microscopy. Results from both individual grains and “global” measurements are interpreted based on comparison to our single crystals findings, DFT calculations and previous literature.

Connectivity-based parcellation of the human frontal polar cortex

The frontal pole corresponds to Brodmann area (BA) 10, the largest single architectonic area in the human frontal lobe. Generally, BA10 is thought to contain two or three subregions that subserve broad functions such as multitasking, social cognition, attention, and episodic memory. However, there is a substantial debate about the functional and structural heterogeneity of this large frontal region. Previous connectivity-based parcellation studies have identified two or three subregions in the human frontal pole. Here, we used diffusion tensor imaging to assess structural connectivity of BA10 in 35 healthy subjects and delineated subregions based on this connectivity. This allowed us to determine the correspondence of structurally based subregions with the scheme previously defined functionally. Three subregions could be defined in each subject. However, these three subregions were not spatially consistent between subjects. Therefore, we accepted a solution with two subregions that encompassed the lateral and medial frontal pole. We then examined resting-state functional connectivity of the two subregions and found significant differences between their connectivities. The medial cluster was connected to nodes of the default-mode network, which is implicated in internally focused, self-related thought, and social cognition. The lateral cluster was connected to nodes of the executive control network, associated with directed attention and working memory. These findings support the concept that there are two major anatomical subregions of the frontal pole related to differences in functional connectivity.

Tensor LRR and sparse coding-based subspace clustering

Subspace clustering groups a set of samples from a union of several linear subspaces into clusters, so that the samples in the same cluster are drawn from the same linear subspace. In the majority of the existing work on subspace clustering, clusters are built based on feature information, while sample correlations in their original spatial structure are simply ignored. Besides, original high-dimensional feature vector contains noisy/redundant information, and the time complexity grows exponentially with the number of dimensions. To address these issues, we propose a tensor low-rank representation (TLRR) and sparse coding-based (TLRRSC) subspace clustering method by simultaneously considering feature information and spatial structures. TLRR seeks the lowest rank representation over original spatial structures along all spatial directions. Sparse coding learns a dictionary along feature spaces, so that each sample can be represented by a few atoms of the learned dictionary. The affinity matrix used for spectral clustering is built from the joint similarities in both spatial and feature spaces. TLRRSC can well capture the global structure and inherent feature information of data, and provide a robust subspace segmentation from corrupted data. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data sets show that TLRRSC outperforms several established state-of-the-art methods.

Mobile sink based fault diagnosis scheme for wireless sensor networks

Network diagnosis in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) is a difficult task due to their improvisational nature, invisibility of internal running status, and particularly since the network structure can frequently change due to link failure. To solve this problem, we propose a Mobile Sink (MS) based distributed fault diagnosis algorithm for WSNs. An MS, or mobile fault detector is usually a mobile robot or vehicle equipped with a wireless transceiver that performs the task of a mobile base station while also diagnosing the hardware and software status of deployed network sensors. Our MS mobile fault detector moves through the network area polling each static sensor node to diagnose the hardware and software status of nearby sensor nodes using only single hop communication. Therefore, the fault detection accuracy and functionality of the network is significantly increased. In order to maintain an excellent Quality of Service (QoS), we employ an optimal fault diagnosis tour planning algorithm. In addition to saving energy and time, the tour planning algorithm excludes faulty sensor nodes from the next diagnosis tour. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms through simulation and real life experimental results.

Analysis of the genetic diversity and structure across a wide range of germplasm reveals prominent gene flow in apple at the European level

Abstract Background: The amount and structure of genetic diversity in dessert apple germplasm conserved at a European level is mostly unknown, since all diversity studies conducted in Europe until now have been performed on regional or national collections. Here, we applied a common set of 16 SSR markers to genotype more than 2,400 accessions across 14 collections representing three broad European geographic regions (North+East, West and South) with the aim to analyze the extent, distribution and structure of variation in the apple genetic resources in Europe. Results: A Bayesian model-based clustering approach showed that diversity was organized in three groups, although these were only moderately differentiated (FST=0.031). A nested Bayesian clustering approach allowed identification of subgroups which revealed internal patterns of substructure within the groups, allowing a finer delineation of the variation into eight subgroups (FST=0.044). The first level of stratification revealed an asymmetric division of the germplasm among the three groups, and a clear association was found with the geographical regions of origin of the cultivars. The substructure revealed clear partitioning of genetic groups among countries, but also interesting associations between subgroups and breeding purposes of recent cultivars or particular usage such as cider production. Additional parentage analyses allowed us to identify both putative parents of more than 40 old and/or local cultivars giving interesting insights in the pedigree of some emblematic cultivars. Conclusions: The variation found at group and sub-group levels may reflect a combination of historical processes of migration/selection and adaptive factors to diverse agricultural environments that, together with genetic drift, have resulted in extensive genetic variation but limited population structure. The European dessert apple germplasm represents an important source of genetic diversity with a strong historical and patrimonial value. The present work thus constitutes a decisive step in the field of conservation genetics. Moreover, the obtained data can be used for defining a European apple core collection useful for further identification of genomic regions associated with commercially important horticultural traits in apple through genome-wide association studies.