Secondary cyclogenesis along an occluded front leading to damaging wind gusts: windstorm Kyrill, January 2007

Windstorm Kyrill affected large parts of Europe in January 2007 and caused widespread havoc and loss of life. In this study the formation of a secondary cyclone, Kyill II, along the occluded front of the mature cyclone Kyrill and the occurrence of severe wind gusts as Kyrill II passed over Germany are investigated with the help of high-resolution regional climate model simulations. Kyrill underwent an explosive cyclogenesis south of Greenland as the storm crossed polewards of an intense upper-level jet stream. Later in its life cycle secondary cyclogenesis occurred just west of the British Isles. The formation of Kyrill II along the occluded front was associated (a) with frontolytic strain and (b) with strong diabatic heating in combination with a developing upper-level shortwave trough. Sensitivity studies with reduced latent heat release feature a similar development but a weaker secondary cyclone, revealing the importance of diabatic processes during the formation of Kyrill II. Kyrill II moved further towards Europe and its development was favored by a split jet structure aloft, which maintained the cyclone’s exceptionally deep core pressure (below 965 hPa) for at least 36 hours. The occurrence of hurricane force winds related to the strong cold front over North and Central Germany is analyzed using convection-permitting simulations. The lower troposphere exhibits conditional instability, a turbulent flow and evaporative cooling. Simulation at high spatio-temporal resolution suggests that the downward mixing of high momentum (the wind speed at 875 hPa widely exceeded 45 m s-1) accounts for widespread severe surface wind gusts, which is in agreement with observed widespread losses.

Impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the Met Office global numerical weather prediction model.

The inclusion of the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols in high-resolution global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is being increasingly recognised as important for the improved accuracy of short-range weather forecasts. In this study the impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are investigated. A hierarchy of aerosol representations are evaluated including three-dimensional monthly mean speciated aerosol climatologies, fully prognostic aerosols modelled using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme and finally, initialised aerosols using assimilated aerosol fields from the GEMS project. The prognostic aerosol schemes are better able to predict the temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric aerosol optical depth, which is particularly important in cases of large sporadic aerosol events such as large dust storms or forest fires. Including the direct effect of aerosols improves model biases in outgoing long-wave radiation over West Africa due to a better representation of dust. However, uncertainties in dust optical properties propagate to its direct effect and the subsequent model response. Inclusion of the indirect aerosol effects improves surface radiation biases at the North Slope of Alaska ARM site due to lower cloud amounts in high-latitude clean-air regions. This leads to improved temperature and height forecasts in this region. Impacts on the global mean model precipitation and large-scale circulation fields were found to be generally small in the short-range forecasts. However, the indirect aerosol effect leads to a strengthening of the low-level monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and an increase in precipitation over Southeast Asia. Regional impacts on the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) are also presented with the large dust loading in the aerosol climatology enhancing of the heat low over West Africa and weakening the AEJ. This study highlights the importance of including a more realistic treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions in global NWP models and the potential for improved global environmental prediction systems through the incorporation of more complex aerosol schemes.

Upwelling O+ ion source characteristics

Recent observations from the Dynamics Explorer 1 (DE-1) spacecraft have shown that the dayside auroral zone is an important source of very low-energy superthermal O^+ ions for the polar magnetosphere. When observed at 2000- to 5000-km altitude, the core of the O^+ distribution exhibits transverse heating to energies on the order of 10 eV, significant upward heat flux, and subsonic upward flow at significant flux levels exceeding 10^8 cm^{-2}s^{-1}. The term "upwelling ions" has been adopted to label these flows, which stand out in sharp contrast to the light ion polar wind flows observed in the same altitude range in the polar cap and subauroral magnetosphere. We have chosen a typical upwelling ion event for detailed study, correlating retarding ion mass spectrometer observations of the low-energy plasma with energetic ion observations and local electromagnetic field observations. The upwelling ion signature is colocated with the magnetospheric cleft as marked by precipitating energetic magnetosheath ions. The apparent ionospheric heating is clearly linked with the magnetic field signatures of strong field-aligned currents in the vicinity of the dayside polar cap boundary. Electric field and ion plasma measurements indicate that a very strong and localized convection channel or jet exists coincident with the other signatures of this event. These observations indicate that transverse ion heating to temperatures on the order of 10^5 K in the 2000- to 5000-km ionosphere is an important factor in producing heavy ion outflows into the polar magnetosphere. This result contrasts with recent suggestions that electron heating to temperatures of order 10^4 K is the most important parameter with regard to O^+ outflow.

The social evolution of dispersal with public goods cooperation

Selection can favour the evolution of individually costly dispersal if this alleviates competition between relatives. However, conditions that favour altruistic dispersal also mediate selection for other social behaviours, such as public goods cooperation, which in turn is likely to mediate dispersal evolution. Here, we investigate – both experimentally (using bacteria) and theoretically – how social habitat heterogeneity (i.e. the distribution of public goods cooperators and cheats) affects the evolution of dispersal. In addition to recovering the well-known theoretical result that the optimal level of dispersal increases with genetic relatedness of patch mates, we find both mathematically and experimentally that dispersal is always favoured when average patch occupancy is low, but when average patch occupancy is high, the presence of public goods cheats greatly alters selection for dispersal. Specifically, when public goods cheats are localized to the home patch, higher dispersal rates are favoured, but when cheats are present throughout available patches, lower dispersal rates are favoured. These results highlight the importance of other social traits in driving dispersal evolution.

Bacterial motility confers fitness advantage in the presence of phages

Dispersal provides the opportunity to escape harm and colonize new patches, enabling populations to expand and persist. However, the benefits of dispersal associated with escaping harm will be dependent on the structure of the environment and the likelihood of escape. Here, we empirically investigate how the spatial distribution of a parasite influences the evolution of host dispersal. Bacteriophages are a strong and common threat for bacteria in natural environments and offer a good system with which to explore parasite-mediated selection on host dispersal. We used two transposon mutants of the opportunistic bacteria, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, which varied in their motility (a disperser and a nondisperser), and the lytic bacteriophage ФKZ. The phage was distributed either in the central point of colony inoculation only, thus offering an escape route for the dispersing bacteria; or, present throughout the agar, where benefits of dispersal might be lost. Surprisingly, we found dispersal to be equally advantageous under both phage conditions relative to when phages were absent. A general explanation is that dispersal decreased the spatial structuring of host population, reducing opportunities for parasite transmission, but other more idiosyncratic mechanisms may also have contributed. This study highlights the crucial role the parasites can play on the evolution of dispersal and, more specifically, that bacteriophages, which are ubiquitous, are likely to select for bacterial motility.

Selection experiments reveal trade-offs between swimming and twitching motilities in pseudomonas aeruginosa

Bacteria possess a range of mechanisms to move in different environments, and these mechanisms have important direct and correlated impacts on the virulence of opportunistic pathogens. Bacteria use two surface organelles to facilitate motility: a single polar flagellum, and type IV pili, enabling swimming in aqueous habitats and twitching along hard surfaces, respectively. Here, we address whether there are trade-offs between these motility mechanisms, and hence whether different environments could select for altered motility. We experimentally evolved initially isogenic Pseudomonas aeruginosa under conditions that favored the different types of motility, and found evidence for a trade-off mediated by antagonistic pleiotropy between swimming and twitching. Moreover, changes in motility resulted in correlated changes in other behaviors, including biofilm formation and growth within an insect host. This suggests environmental origins of a particular motile opportunistic pathogen could predictably influence motility and virulence

Using experimental evolution to explore natural patterns between bacterial motility and resistance to bacteriophages

Resistance of bacteria to phages may be gained by alteration of surface proteins to which phages bind, a mechanism that is likely to be costly as these molecules typically have critical functions such as movement or nutrient uptake. To address this potential trade-off, we combine a systematic study of natural bacteria and phage populations with an experimental evolution approach. We compare motility, growth rate and susceptibility to local phages for 80 bacteria isolated from horse chestnut leaves and, contrary to expectation, find no negative association between resistance to phages and bacterial motility or growth rate. However, because correlational patterns (and their absence) are open to numerous interpretations, we test for any causal association between resistance to phages and bacterial motility using experimental evolution of a subset of bacteria in both the presence and absence of naturally associated phages. Again, we find no clear link between the acquisition of resistance and bacterial motility, suggesting that for these natural bacterial populations, phage-mediated selection is unlikely to shape bacterial motility, a key fitness trait for many bacteria in the phyllosphere. The agreement between the observed natural pattern and the experimental evolution results presented here demonstrates the power of this combined approach for testing evolutionary trade-offs.

Competition and dispersal in Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Dispersal plays a crucial role in a range of evolutionary and ecological processes; hence there is strong motivation to understand its evolution. One key prediction is that the relative benefits of dispersal should be greater when dispersing away from close relatives, because in this case dispersal has the additional benefit of alleviating competition with individuals who share the same dispersal alleles. We tested this prediction for the first time using experimental populations of the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa. We measured the fitness of isogenic genotypes that differed only in their dispersal behaviors in both clonal and mixed populations. Consistent with theory, the benefit of dispersal was much higher in clonal populations, and this benefit decreased with increasing growth rate costs associated with dispersal.

Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

The dynamics of Baroclinic Zonal jets

Multiple alternating zonal jets are a ubiquitous feature of planetary atmospheres and oceans. However, most studies to date have focused on the special case of barotropic jets. Here, the dynamics of freely evolving baroclinic jets are investigated using a two-layer quasigeostrophic annulus model with sloping topography. In a suite of 15 numerical simulations, the baroclinic Rossby radius and baroclinic Rhines scale are sampled by varying the stratification and root-mean-square eddy velocity, respectively. Small-scale eddies in the initial state evolve through geostrophic turbulence and accelerate zonally as they grow in horizontal scale, first isotropically and then anisotropically. This process leads ultimately to the formation of jets, which take about 2500 rotation periods to equilibrate. The kinetic energy spectrum of the equilibrated baroclinic zonal flow steepens from a −3 power law at small scales to a −5 power law near the jet scale. The conditions most favorable for producing multiple alternating baroclinic jets are large baroclinic Rossby radius (i.e., strong stratification) and small baroclinic Rhines scale (i.e., weak root-mean-square eddy velocity). The baroclinic jet width is diagnosed objectively and found to be 2.2–2.8 times larger than the baroclinic Rhines scale, with a best estimate of 2.5 times larger. This finding suggests that Rossby wave motions must be moving at speeds of approximately 6 times the turbulent eddy velocity in order to be capable of arresting the isotropic inverse energy cascade.

The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world’s population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200 to 40 km at the equator (N96 to N512, 1.9 to 0.35◦). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution related processes cause these changes we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts.

Detection of coherent airstreams using cluster analysis: application to an extratropical cyclone

Flow in geophysical fluids is commonly summarized by coherent streams, for example conveyor belt flows in extratropical cyclones or jet streaks in the upper troposphere. Typically, parcel trajectories are calculated from the flow field and subjective thresholds are used to distinguish coherent streams of interest. This methodology contribution develops a more objective approach to distinguish coherent airstreams within extratropical cyclones. Agglomerative clustering is applied to trajectories along with a method to identify the optimal number of cluster classes. The methodology is applied to trajectories associated with the low-level jets of a well-studied extratropical cyclone. For computational efficiency, a constraint that trajectories must pass through these jet regions is applied prior to clustering; the partitioning into different airstreams is then performed by the agglomerative clustering. It is demonstrated that the methodology can identify the salient flow structures of cyclones: the warm and cold conveyor belts. A test focusing on the airstreams terminating at the tip of the bent-back front further demonstrates the success of the method in that it can distinguish fine-scale flow structure such as descending sting jet airstreams.

Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: stratospheric and global circulation changes

It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme ‘Maunder Minimum like’ grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference RCP8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (~1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.4 K. The impact on global mean near-surface temperature is small (~−0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern hemisphere (NH) winter-time, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ~3-4 m s1, with the largest changes occurring in January-February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian low at the surface and an increase in blocking over northern Europe and the north Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern hemisphere (SH) midlatitude eddy-driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top-down pathway for solar-climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200–320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate.

Advances in understanding mineral dust and boundary layer processes over the Sahara from Fennec aircraft observations

The Fennec climate program aims to improve understanding of the Saharan climate system through a synergy of observations and modelling. We present a description of the Fennec airborne observations during 2011 and 2012 over the remote Sahara (Mauritania and Mali) and the advances in the understanding of mineral dust and boundary layer processes they have provided. Aircraft instrumentation aboard the UK FAAM BAe146 and French SAFIRE Falcon 20 is described, with specific focus on instrumentation specially developed and relevant to Saharan meteorology and dust. Flight locations, aims and associated meteorology are described. Examples and applications of aircraft measurements from the Fennec flights are presented, highlighting new scientific results delivered using a synergy of different instruments and aircraft. These include: (1) the first airborne measurement of dust particles sized up to 300 microns and associated dust fluxes in the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL), (2) dust uplift from the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet before becoming visible in SEVIRI satellite imagery, (3) vertical profiles of the unique vertical structure of turbulent fluxes in the SABL, (4) in-situ observations of processes in SABL clouds showing dust acting as CCN and IN at −15 °C, (5) dual-aircraft observations of the SABL dynamics, thermodynamics and composition in the Saharan heat low region (SHL), (6) airborne observations of a dust storm associated with a cold-pool (haboob) issued from deep convection over the Atlas, (7) the first airborne chemical composition measurements of dust in the SHL region with differing composition, sources (determined using Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations) and absorption properties between 2011 and 2012, (8) coincident ozone and dust surface area measurements suggest coarser particles provide a route for ozone depletion, (9) discrepancies between airborne coarse mode size distributions and AERONET sunphotometer retrievals under light dust loadings. These results provide insights into boundary layer and dust processes in the SHL region – a region of substantial global climatic importance.

Observed anomalous atmospheric patterns in summers of unusual Arctic sea ice melt

The Arctic sea ice retreat has accelerated over the last decade. The negative trend is largest in summer, but substantial interannual variability still remains. Here we explore observed atmospheric conditions and feedback mechanisms during summer months of anomalous sea ice melt in the Arctic. Compositing months of anomalous low and high sea ice melt over 1979–2013, we find distinct patterns in atmospheric circulation, precipitation, radiation, and temperature. Compared to summer months of anomalous low sea ice melt, high melt months are characterized by anomalous high sea level pressure in the Arctic (up to 7 hPa), with a corresponding tendency of storms to track on a more zonal path. As a result, the Arctic receives less precipitation overall and 39% less snowfall. This lowers the albedo of the region and reduces the negative feedback the snowfall provides for the sea ice. With an anticyclonic tendency, 12 W/m2 more incoming shortwave radiation reaches the surface in the start of the season. The melting sea ice in turn promotes cloud development in the marginal ice zones and enhances downwelling longwave radiation at the surface toward the end of the season. A positive cloud feedback emerges. In midlatitudes, the more zonally tracking cyclones give stormier, cloudier, wetter, and cooler summers in most of northern Europe and around the Sea of Okhotsk. Farther south, the region from the Mediterranean Sea to East Asia experiences significant surface warming (up to 2.4◦C), possibly linked to changes in the jet stream.