A diabatically-generated potential vorticity structure near the extratropical tropopause in three simulated extratropical cyclones

The structure of near-tropopause potential vorticity (PV) acts as a primary control on the evolution of extratropical cyclones. Diabatic processes such as the latent heating found in ascending moist warm conveyor belts modify PV. A dipole in diabatically-generated PV (hereafter diabatic PV) straddling the extratropical tropopause, with the positive pole above the negative pole, was diagnosed in a recently published analysis of a simulated extratropical cyclone. This PV dipole has the potential to significantly modify the propagation of Rossby waves and the growth of baroclinically-unstable waves. This previous analysis was based on a single case study simulated with 12-km horizontal grid spacing and parameterized convection. Here, the dipole is investigated in three additional cold-season extratropical cyclones simulated in both convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting model configurations. A diabatic PV dipole across the extratropical tropopause is diagnosed in all three cases. The amplitude of the dipole saturates approximately 36 hours from the time diabatic PV is accumulated. The node elevation of the dipole varies between 2-4 PVU in the three cases, and the amplitude of the system-averaged dipole varies between 0.2-0.4 PVU. The amplitude of the negative pole is similar in the convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting simulations. The positive pole, which is generated by long-wave radiative cooling, is weak in the convection-permitting simulations due to the small domain size which limits the accumulation of diabatic tendencies within the interior of the domain. The possible correspondence between the diabatic PV dipole and the extratropical tropopause inversion layer is discussed.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening

Many theories for the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) focus on diabatic processes, particularly the evolution of vertical heating and moistening. Poor MJO performance in weather and climate models is often blamed on biases in these processes and their interactions with the large-scale circulation. We introduce one of three components of a model-evaluation project, which aims to connect MJO fidelity in models to their representations of several physical processes, focusing on diabatic heating and moistening. This component consists of 20-day hindcasts, initialised daily during two MJO events in winter 2009-10. The 13 models exhibit a range of skill: several have accurate forecasts to 20 days' lead, while others perform similarly to statistical models (8-11 days). Models that maintain the observed MJO amplitude accurately predict propagation, but not vice versa. We find no link between hindcast fidelity and the precipitation-moisture relationship, in contrast to other recent studies. There is also no relationship between models' performance and the evolution of their diabatic-heating profiles with rain rate. A more robust association emerges between models' fidelity and net moistening: the highest-skill models show a clear transition from low-level moistening for light rainfall to mid-level moistening at moderate rainfall and upper-level moistening for heavy rainfall. The mid-level moistening, arising from both dynamics and physics, may be most important. Accurately representing many processes may be necessary, but not sufficient for capturing the MJO, which suggests that models fail to predict the MJO for a broad range of reasons and limits the possibility of finding a panacea.

An evaluation of the simulated water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa at 6000 yr B.P. using lake status data

Changes in the water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa in response to insolation forcing at 6000 y BP simulated by five atmospheric general circulation models have been compared with observations of changes in lake status. All of the simulations show enhancement of the Asian summer monsoon and of the high pressure cells over the Pacific and Central Asia and the Middle East, causing wetter conditions in northern India and southern China and drier conditions along the Chinese coast and west of the monsoon core. All of the models show enhancement of the African monsoon, causing wetter conditions in the zone between ca 10–20 °N. Four of the models show conditions wetter than present in southern Europe and drier than present in northern Europe. Three of the models show conditions similar to present in the mid-latitude continental interior, while the remaining models show conditions somewhat drier than present. The extent and location of each of the simulated changes varies between the models, as does the mechanism producing these changes. The lake data confirm some features of the simulations, but indicate discrepancies between observed and simulated climates. For example, the data show: (1) conditions wetter than present in central Asia, from India to northern China and Mongolia, indicating that the simulated Asian monsoon expansion is too small; (2) conditions wetter than present between ca. 10–30 °N in Africa, indicating that the simulated African monsoon expansion is too small; (3) that northern Europe was drier, but the area of significantly drier conditions was more localized (around the Baltic) than shown in the simulations; (4) that southern Europe was wetter than present, apparently consistent with the simulations, but pollen data suggest that this reflects an increase in summer rainfall whereas the models show winter precipitation, and (5) that the mid-latitude continental interior was generally wetter than present.

Synergistic angular and spectral estimation of aerosol properties using CHRIS/PROBA-1 and simulated Sentinel-3 data

We develop a method to derive aerosol properties over land surfaces using combined spectral and angular information, such as available from ESA Sentinel-3 mission, to be launched in 2015. A method of estimating aerosol optical depth (AOD) using only angular retrieval has previously been demonstrated on data from the ENVISAT and PROBA-1 satellite instruments, and is extended here to the synergistic spectral and angular sampling of Sentinel-3. The method aims to improve the estimation of AOD, and to explore the estimation of fine mode fraction (FMF) and single scattering albedo (SSA) over land surfaces by inversion of a coupled surface/atmosphere radiative transfer model. The surface model includes a general physical model of angular and spectral surface reflectance. An iterative process is used to determine the optimum value of the aerosol properties providing the best fit of the corrected reflectance values to the physical model. The method is tested using hyperspectral, multi-angle Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (CHRIS) images. The values obtained from these CHRIS observations are validated using ground-based sun photometer measurements. Results from 22 image sets using the synergistic retrieval and improved aerosol models show an RMSE of 0.06 in AOD, reduced to 0.03 over vegetated targets.

Using high-fidelity virtual reality to study perception in freely moving observers

Technological innovations have had a profound influence on how we study the sensory perception in humans and other animals. One example was the introduction of affordable computers, which radically changed the nature of visual experiments. It is clear that vision research is now at cusp of a similar shift, this time driven by the use of commercially available, low-cost, high- fidelity virtual reality (VR). In this review we will focus on: (a) the research questions VR allows experimenters to address and why these research questions are important, (b) the things that need to be considered when using VR to study human perception, (c) the drawbacks of current VR systems, and (d) the future direction vision research may take, now that VR has become a viable research tool.

Looking back, moving forward: drama, disability and social justice

The aim of this chapter is to briefly outline how disability has been represented in theatre, what access disabled people have had to drama and theatre in the past, and what might be achieved in the pursuit of social justice with young people in relation to awareness of and provision for disability. It will focus in particular on how disability has been addressed in drama education and what assumptions have been made regarding drama and disability in education. In considering such issues one might perceive manifestations of what Freebody and Finneran (2013) recognise as an overlapping and ‘somewhat artificially created dichotomy between drama for social justice and drama about social justice.’ This chapter will examine some examples of how drama has been used to give students in mainstream schools insights into disability, and the philosophy that underpins the drama curriculum of one special school where the focus is on drama as social justice: the argument being that in some cases simply doing drama is, in effect, a manifestation of social justice. Finally, some of the progress made in recent years regarding access and engagement will be addressed through specific reference to the authors’ on-going work into ‘performing social research’ (Shah, 2013) and how theatres are increasingly attempting to give more access to disabled young people and their families by offering ‘relaxed performances.’

Explicit time-stepping for moving meshes

In order to move the nodes in a moving mesh method a time-stepping scheme is required which is ideally explicit and non-tangling (non-overtaking in one dimension (1-D)). Such a scheme is discussed in this paper, together with its drawbacks, and illustrated in 1-D in the context of a velocity-based Lagrangian conservation method applied to first order and second order examples which exhibit a regime change after node compression. An implementation in multidimensions is also described in some detail.

Effect of simulated rainfall during wheat seed development and maturation on subsequent seed longevity is reversible

Poor wheat seed quality in temperate regions is often ascribed to wet production environments. We investigated the possible effect of simulated rain during seed development and maturation on seed longevity in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cv. Tybalt grown in the field (2008, 2009) or a polythene tunnel house (2010). To mimic rain, the seed crops were wetted from above with the equivalent of 30mm (2008, 2009) or 25mm rainfall (2010) at different stages of seed development and maturation (17 to 58 DAA, days after 50% anthesis), samples harvested serially, and subsequent air-dry seed longevity estimated. No pre-harvest sprouting occurred. Seed longevity (p50, 50% survival period in experimental hermetic storage at 40°C with c. 15% moisture content) in field-grown controls increased during seed development and maturation attaining maxima at 37 (2008) or 44 DAA (2009); it declined thereafter. Immediate effects of simulated rain at 17-58 DAA in field studies (2008, 2009) on subsequent seed longevity were negative but small, e.g. a 1-4 d delay in seed quality improvement for treatments early in development but with no damage detected at final harvests. In rainfall-protected conditions (2010), simulated rain close to harvest maturity (55-56 DAA) reduced longevity immediately and substantially, with greater damage from two sequential days of wetting than one; again, later harvests provided evidence of recovery in subsequent longevity. In the absence of pre-harvest sprouting, the potentially deleterious effects of rainfall to wheat seed crops on subsequent seed longevity may be reversible in full or in part.

Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa

Multiple observational data sets and atmosphere-only simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are analyzed to characterize recent rainfall variability and trends over Africa focusing on 1983–2010. Data sets exhibiting spurious variability, linked in part to a reduction in rain gauge density, were identified. The remaining observations display coherent increases in annual Sahel rainfall (29 to 43 mm yr−1 per decade), decreases in March–May East African rainfall (−14 to −65 mm yr−1 per decade), and increases in annual Southern Africa rainfall (32 to 41 mm yr−1 per decade). However, Central Africa annual rainfall trends vary in sign (−10 to +39 mm yr−1 per decade). For Southern Africa, observed and sea surface temperature (SST)-forced model simulated rainfall variability are significantly correlated (r~0.5) and linked to SST patterns associated with recent strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation.

The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes

Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art climate models, we show that temperature extremes generally emerge slightly later from their quasi-natural climate state than seasonal means, due to greater variability in extremes. Nevertheless, according to model evidence, both hot and cold extremes have already emerged across many areas. Remarkably, even precipitation extremes that have very large variability are projected to emerge in the coming decades in Northern Hemisphere winters associated with a wettening trend. Based on our findings we expect local temperature and precipitation extremes to already differ significantly from their previous quasi-natural state at many locations or to do so in the near future. Our findings have implications for climate impacts and detection and attribution studies assessing observed changes in regional climate extremes by showing whether they will likely find a fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change.

A moving point approach to model shallow ice sheets: a study case with radially-symmetrical ice sheets

Predicting the evolution of ice sheets requires numerical models able to accurately track the migration of ice sheet continental margins or grounding lines. We introduce a physically based moving point approach for the flow of ice sheets based on the conservation of local masses. This allows the ice sheet margins to be tracked explicitly and the waiting time behaviours to be modelled efficiently. A finite difference moving point scheme is derived and applied in a simplified context (continental radially-symmetrical shallow ice approximation). The scheme, which is inexpensive, is validated by comparing the results with moving-margin exact solutions and steady states. In both cases the scheme is able to track the position of the ice sheet margin with high precision.

"When I go to bed hungry and sleep, I'm not hungry": children and parents' experiences of food insecurity

Evidence demonstrates food insecurity has a detrimental impact on a range of outcomes for children, but little research has been conducted in the UK, and children have rarely been asked to describe their experiences directly. We examined the experiences of food insecure families living in South London. Our mixed-methods approach comprised a survey of parents (n = 72) and one-to-one semi-structured interviews with children aged 5-11 years (n = 19). The majority of parents (86%) described their food security during the preceding year as very low. Most reported they had often or sometimes had insufficient food, and almost all had worried about running out of food. Two thirds of parents had gone hungry. Most parents reported they had been unable to afford a nutritionally balanced diet for their children, and just under half reported that their children had gone hungry. Four themes emerged from the interviews with children: sources of food; security of food, nutritional quality of food, and experiences of hunger. Children's descriptions of insufficient food being available indicate that parents are not always able to shield them from the impact of food insecurity. The lack of school-meals and after-school clubs serving food made weekends particularly problematic for some children. A notable consequence of food insecurity appears to be reliance on low-cost takeaway food, likely to be nutritionally poor.

The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory: an open meteorological test bed and challenges of the smart city

Existing urban meteorological networks have an important role to play as test beds for inexpensive and more sustainable measurement techniques that are now becoming possible in our increasingly smart cities. The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory (BUCL) is a near-real-time, high-resolution urban meteorological network (UMN) of automatic weather stations and inexpensive, nonstandard air temperature sensors. The network has recently been implemented with an initial focus on monitoring urban heat, infrastructure, and health applications. A number of UMNs exist worldwide; however, BUCL is novel in its density, the low-cost nature of the sensors, and the use of proprietary Wi-Fi networks. This paper provides an overview of the logistical aspects of implementing a UMN test bed at such a density, including selecting appropriate urban sites; testing and calibrating low-cost, nonstandard equipment; implementing strict quality-assurance/quality-control mechanisms (including metadata); and utilizing preexisting Wi-Fi networks to transmit data. Also included are visualizations of data collected by the network, including data from the July 2013 U.K. heatwave as well as highlighting potential applications. The paper is an open invitation to use the facility as a test bed for evaluating models and/or other nonstandard observation techniques such as those generated via crowdsourcing techniques.

Seasonal surface urban energy balance and wintertime stability simulated using three land-surface models in the high-latitude city Helsinki

The performance of three urban land surface models, run in offline mode, with their default external parameters, is evaluated for two distinctly different sites in Helsinki: Torni and Kumpula. The former is a dense city centre site with 22% vegetation, while the latter is a suburban site with over 50% vegetation. At both locations the models are compared against sensible and latent heat fluxes measured using the eddy covariance technique, along with snow depth observations. The cold climate experienced by the city causes strong seasonal variations that include snow cover and stable atmospheric conditions. Most of the time the three models are able to account for the differences between the study areas as well as the seasonal and diurnal variability of the energy balance components. However, the performances are not systematic across the modelled components, season and surface type. The net all-wave radiation is well simulated, with the greatest uncertainties related to snowmelt timing, when the fraction of snow cover has a key role, particularly in determining the surface albedo. For the turbulent fluxes, more variation between the models is seen which can partly be explained by the different methods in their calculation and partly by surface parameter values. For the sensible heat flux, simulation of wintertime values was the main problem, which also leads to issues in predicting near-surface stabilities particularly at the dense city centre site. All models have the most difficulties in simulating latent heat flux. This study particularly emphasizes that improvements are needed in the parameterization of anthropogenic heat flux and thermal parameters in winter, snow cover in spring and evapotranspiration in order to improve the surface energy balance modelling in cold climate cities.

A moving-point approach to model shallow ice sheets: a study case with radially symmetrical ice sheets

Predicting the evolution of ice sheets requires numerical models able to accurately track the migration of ice sheet continental margins or grounding lines. We introduce a physically based moving-point approach for the flow of ice sheets based on the conservation of local masses. This allows the ice sheet margins to be tracked explicitly. Our approach is also well suited to capture waiting-time behaviour efficiently. A finite-difference moving-point scheme is derived and applied in a simplified context (continental radially symmetrical shallow ice approximation). The scheme, which is inexpensive, is verified by comparing the results with steady states obtained from an analytic solution and with exact moving-margin transient solutions. In both cases the scheme is able to track the position of the ice sheet margin with high accuracy.