Keeping the dream of rigorous hypothesis testing alive

This article reviews recent work on hypothesis testing in the American Journal of AGricultural Economics and its predecessor journal, the Journal of Farm Economics

Testing for significance of phase synchronisation dynamics in the EEG

A number of tests exist to check for statistical significance of phase synchronisation within the Electroencephalogram (EEG); however, the majority suffer from a lack of generality and applicability. They may also fail to account for temporal dynamics in the phase synchronisation, regarding synchronisation as a constant state instead of a dynamical process. Therefore, a novel test is developed for identifying the statistical significance of phase synchronisation based upon a combination of work characterising temporal dynamics of multivariate time-series and Markov modelling. We show how this method is better able to assess the significance of phase synchronisation than a range of commonly used significance tests. We also show how the method may be applied to identify and classify significantly different phase synchronisation dynamics in both univariate and multivariate datasets.

Evaluation of the use of high-density SNP genotyping to implement UPOV Model 2 for DUS testing in barley

Developments in high-throughput genotyping provide an opportunity to explore the application of marker technology in distinctness, uniformity and stability (DUS) testing of new varieties. We have used a large set of molecular markers to assess the feasibility of a UPOV Model 2 approach: “Calibration of threshold levels for molecular characteristics against the minimum distance in traditional characteristics”. We have examined 431 winter and spring barley varieties, with data from UK DUS trials comprising 28 characteristics, together with genotype data from 3072 SNP markers. Inter varietal distances were calculated and we found higher correlations between molecular and morphological distances than have been previously reported. When varieties were grouped by kinship, phenotypic and genotypic distances of these groups correlated well. We estimated the minimum marker numbers required and showed there was a ceiling after which the correlations do not improve. To investigate the possibility of breaking through this ceiling, we attempted genomic prediction of phenotypes from genotypes and higher correlations were achieved. We tested distinctness decisions made using either morphological or genotypic distances and found poor correspondence between each method.

Non-concordance between genetic profiles of olive oil and fruit: a cautionary note to the use of DNA markers for provenance testing.

To investigate the contribution of paternal alleles to the DNA content of olive oil, genetic analyses of olive DNA samples from fruits, leaves, and oil derived from the same tree (cv. Leccino) were carried out. DNA extracted from maternal tissues--leaves and flesh--from different fruits showed identical genetic profiles using a set of DNA markers. Additional simple sequence repeat (SSR) alleles, not found in the maternal samples, were amplified in the embryos (stone), and they were also detected in DNA extracted from the paste obtained by crushing whole fruits and from the oil pressed from this material. These results demonstrate that the DNA profile obtained from olive oil is likely to represent a composite profile of the maternal alleles juxtaposed with alleles contributed by various pollen donors. Therefore, care needs to be taken in the interpretation of DNA profiles obtained from DNA extracted from oil for resolving provenance and authenticity issues.

The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones

The ability of the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones in winter [December–February (DJF)] and summer [June–August (JJA)] is investigated in detail. Cyclones are identified as maxima in T42 vorticity at 850 hPa and their propagation is tracked using an objective feature-tracking algorithm. By comparing the historical CMIP5 simulations (1976–2005) and the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim; 1979–2008), the authors find that systematic biases affect the number and intensity of North Atlantic cyclones in CMIP5 models. In DJF, the North Atlantic storm track tends to be either too zonal or displaced southward, thus leading to too few and weak cyclones over the Norwegian Sea and too many cyclones in central Europe. In JJA, the position of the North Atlantic storm track is generally well captured but some CMIP5 models underestimate the total number of cyclones. The dynamical intensity of cyclones, as measured by either T42 vorticity at 850 hPa or mean sea level pressure, is too weak in both DJF and JJA. The intensity bias has a hemispheric character, and it cannot be simply attributed to the representation of the North Atlantic large- scale atmospheric state. Despite these biases, the representation of Northern Hemisphere (NH) storm tracks has improved since CMIP3 and some CMIP5 models are able of representing well both the number and the intensity of North Atlantic cyclones. In particular, some of the higher-atmospheric-resolution models tend to have a better representation of the tilt of the North Atlantic storm track and of the intensity of cyclones in DJF.

Testing oligopoly theory in the lab

Previous literature is reviewed to account for the existing experimental tests of standard oligopoly-theoretic models.

Automatic ability attribution after failure: a dual process view of achievement attribution

Causal attribution has been one of the most influential frameworks in the literature of achievement motivation, but previous studies considered achievement attribution as relatively deliberate and effortful processes. In the current study, we tested the hypothesis that people automatically attribute their achievement failure to their ability, but reduce the ability attribution in a controlled manner. To address this hypothesis, we measured participants’ causal attribution belief for their task failure either under the cognitive load (load condition) or with full attention (no-load condition). Across two studies, participants attributed task performance to their ability more in the load than in the no-load condition. The increased ability attribution under cognitive load further affected intrinsic motivation. These results indicate that cognitive resources available after feedback play crucial roles in determining causal attribution belief, as well as achievement motivations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved)(journal abstract)

Business cycle asymmetries: characterisation and testing based on Markov-switching autoregressions

Tests for business cycle asymmetries are developed for Markov-switching autoregressive models. The tests of deepness, steepness, and sharpness are Wald statistics, which have standard asymptotics. For the standard two-regime model of expansions and contractions, deepness is shown to imply sharpness (and vice versa), whereas the process is always nonsteep. Two and three-state models of U.S. GNP growth are used to illustrate the approach, along with models of U.S. investment and consumption growth. The robustness of the tests to model misspecification, and the effects of regime-dependent heteroscedasticity, are investigated.

Testing the expectations theory of the term structure in threshold models

We test the expectations theory of the term structure of U.S. interest rates in nonlinear systems. These models allow the response of the change in short rates to past values of the spread to depend upon the level of the spread. The nonlinear system is tested against a linear system, and the results of testing the expectations theory in both models are contrasted. We find that the results of tests of the implications of the expectations theory depend on the size and sign of the spread. The long maturity spread predicts future changes of the short rate only when it is high.

Relationship between condensed tannin structures and their ability to precipitate feed proteins in the rumen

Abstract BACKGROUND Tannins can bind to and precipitate protein by forming insoluble complexes resistant to fermentation and with a positive effect on protein utilisation by ruminants. Three protein types, Rubisco, rapeseed protein and bovine serum albumin (a single high-molecular weight protein), were used to test the effects of increasing concentrations of structurally different condensed tannins on protein solubility/precipitation. RESULTS Protein type (PT) influenced solubility after addition of condensed tannins (P < 0.001) in the order: Rubisco < rapeseed < BSA (P < 0.05). The type of condensed tannin (CT) affected protein solubility (P = 0.001) with a CT × PT interaction (P = 0.001). Mean degree of polymerisation, proportions of cis- versus trans-flavanol subunits or prodelphinidins versus procyanidins among CTs could not explain precipitation capacities. Increasing tannin concentration decreased protein solubility (P < 0.001) with a PT × CT concentration interaction. The proportion of low-molecular weight rapeseed proteins remaining in solution increased with CT concentration but not with Rubisco. CONCLUSIONS Results of this study suggest that PT and CT type are both of importance for protein precipitation but that the CT structures investigated did not allow identification of parameters that contribute most to precipitation. It is possible that the three-dimensional structures of tannins and proteins may be more important factors in tannin–protein interactions. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry

Corticospinal tract integrity and lesion volume play different roles in chronic hemiparesis and its improvement through motor practice

Background. Initial evidence suggests that the integrity of the ipsilesional corticospinal tract (CST) after stroke is strongly related to motor function in the chronic state but not the treatment gain induced by motor rehabilitation. Objective. We examined the association of motor status and treatment benefit by testing patients with a wide range of severity of hemiparesis of the left and right upper extremity. Method. Diffusion tensor imaging was performed in 22 patients beyond 12 months after onset of stroke with severe to moderate hemiparesis. Motor function was tested before and after 2 weeks of modified constraint-induced movement therapy. Results. CST integrity, but not lesion volume, correlated with the motor ability measures of the Wolf Motor Function Test and the Motor Activity Log. No differences were found between left and right hemiparesis. Motor performance improved significantly with the treatment regime, and did so equally for patients with left and right arm paresis. However, treatment benefit was not associated with either CST integrity or lesion volume. Conclusion. CST integrity correlated best in this small trial with chronic long-term status but not treatment-induced improvements. The CST may play a different role in the mechanisms mediating long-term outcome compared to those underlying practice-induced gains after a chronic plateau in motor function.

Fire history and the Global Charcoal Database: a new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration

Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database is now available for regional fire history reconstructions, data exploration, hypothesis testing, and evaluation of coupled climate–vegetation–fire model simulations. The charcoal database contains over 400 radiocarbon-dated records that document changes in charcoal abundance during the Late Quaternary. The aim of this public database is to stimulate cross-disciplinary research in fire sciences targeted at an increased understanding of the controls and impacts of natural and anthropogenic fire regimes on centennial-to-orbital timescales. We describe here the data standardization techniques for comparing multiple types of sedimentary charcoal records. Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database has been used to characterize global and regional patterns in fire activity since the last glacial maximum. Recent studies using the charcoal database have explored the relation between climate and fire during periods of rapid climate change, including evidence of fire activity during the Younger Dryas Chronozone, and during the past two millennia.