Predicting the effects of nitrogen and planting density on maize water use in semi-arid Kenya

Models are important tools to assess the scope of management effects on crop productivity under different climatic and soil regimes. Accordingly, this study developed and used a simple model to assess the effects of nitrogen fertiliser and planting density on the water use efficiency (q) of maize in semi-arid Kenya. Field experiments were undertaken at Sonning, Berkshire, UK, in 1996 (one sowing) and 1997 (two sowings). The results from the field experiments plus soil and weather data for Machakos, Kenya (1 degree 33'S, 37 degree 14'E and 1560 m above sea level), were then used to predict the effects that N application and planting density may have on water use by a maize crop grown in semi-arid Kenya. The increase in q due to N application was greater under irrigated (15%-19%) than rainfed (7%-8%) conditions. Also, high planting density increased q (by 13%) under irrigation but decreased q (by 17%) under rainfed conditions. The current study has shown the significance of crop modelling techniques in assessing the influence of N and planting density on maize production in one region of semi-arid Kenya where there is high variability of rainfall.

Development and assessment of a coupled crop-climate model

It is well established that crop production is inherently vulnerable to variations in the weather and climate. More recently the influence of vegetation on the state of the atmosphere has been recognized. The seasonal growth of crops can influence the atmosphere and have local impacts on the weather, which in turn affects the rate of seasonal crop growth and development. Considering the coupled nature of the crop-climate system, and the fact that a significant proportion of land is devoted to the cultivation of crops, important interactions may be missed when studying crops and the climate system in isolation, particularly in the context of land use and climate change. To represent the two-way interactions between seasonal crop growth and atmospheric variability, we integrate a crop model developed specifically to operate at large spatial scales (General Large Area Model for annual crops) into the land surface component of a global climate model (GCM; HadAM3). In the new coupled crop-climate model, the simulated environment (atmosphere and soil states) influences growth and development of the crop, while simultaneously the temporal variations in crop leaf area and height across its growing season alter the characteristics of the land surface that are important determinants of surface fluxes of heat and moisture, as well as other aspects of the land-surface hydrological cycle. The coupled model realistically simulates the seasonal growth of a summer annual crop in response to the GCM's simulated weather and climate. The model also reproduces the observed relationship between seasonal rainfall and crop yield. The integration of a large-scale single crop model into a GCM, as described here, represents a first step towards the development of fully coupled crop and climate models. Future development priorities and challenges related to coupling crop and climate models are discussed.

Modeling of relationships between weather and Septoria tritici epidemics on winter wheat: A critical approach

Two models for predicting Septoria tritici on winter wheat (cv. Ri-band) were developed using a program based on an iterative search of correlations between disease severity and weather. Data from four consecutive cropping seasons (1993/94 until 1996/97) at nine sites throughout England were used. A qualitative model predicted the presence or absence of Septoria tritici (at a 5% severity threshold within the top three leaf layers) using winter temperature (January/February) and wind speed to about the first node detectable growth stage. For sites above the disease threshold, a quantitative model predicted severity of Septoria tritici using rainfall during stern elongation. A test statistic was derived to test the validity of the iterative search used to obtain both models. This statistic was used in combination with bootstrap analyses in which the search program was rerun using weather data from previous years, therefore uncorrelated with the disease data, to investigate how likely correlations such as the ones found in our models would have been in the absence of genuine relationships.

A survey of dairy effluent management in the south of Chile

A survey was carried out on 55 commercial dairy farms located in the South of Chile during 1995-97. A questionnaire was developed to obtain informed estimates of dairy effluent management on those farms. Information was analysed on an annual basis using a computer spreadsheet linking all the parameters surveyed. In addition, slurry samples were taken for analysis of dry matter content (DM). Herd size varied between 50 and 800 cows per farm. A large proportion of the total volume of effluents produced came from rainfall (46%), dirty water accounted for 29% with only 25% from cow's faeces and urine. The large volume of effluents produced resulted in a reduced storage capacity (on average of 2 months) or more frequent and higher application rates to the field. Only 37% of the farmers knew the application rates of manure and there was a wide range in the quantity used per year (12 m(3)/ha to 300 m(3)/ha). Dairy effluents were applied mainly on grass (71%) throughout the year but, mostly concentrated during the winter and spring time using only surface irrigation system. The total solids contents of effluents was very low, with 62% of the samples being <4% DM. This reflected the large volumes of clean water that the storage tanks received. The information collected has identified problems in effluent management in Chilean dairy farms where research and technology transfer will be necessary to avoid pollution problems.

Drought stress differentially affects leaf-mining species

1. The impact of climate change on phytophages is difficult to predict, due in part to variation between species in their responses to factors such as drought stress. Here, the hypothesis that several species within the leaf-mining feeding guild will respond in a consistent way to changes in rainfall patterns is tested, using a manipulative field experiment. 2. Summer drought, enhanced summer rainfall, and control treatments were imposed on a calcareous grassland community, and the responses of five leaf-mining species were assessed. 3. One leaf-mining species was more abundant under enhanced rainfall, one was more abundant under drought, and the other three species showed no consistent response to the rainfall treatments. Higher parasitism levels under drought may partly explain the response of one species (Stephensia brunnichella) to the treatments. 4. These results show that generalisations relating to drought stress impacts cannot be drawn at the feeding guild level for leaf-mining insects.

Summer drought alters plant-mediated competition between foliar- and root-feeding insects

Summer droughts are predicted to increase in severity and frequency in the United Kingdom, due to climate change. Few studies have addressed the impacts of drought on interactions between species, and the majority have focussed on increases in CO2 concentration and changes in temperature. Here, the effect of experimental summer drought on the strength of the plant-mediated interaction between leaf-mining Stephensia brunnichella larvae and root-chewing Agriotes larvae was investigated. Agriotes larvae reduced the abundance and performance of S. brunnichella feeding on a mutual host plant, Clinopodium vulgare, as well as the rate of parasitism of the leaf-miner. The interaction did not, however, occur on plants subjected to a severe drought treatment, which were reduced in size. Changes to summer rainfall, due to climate change, may therefore reduce the occurrence of plant-mediated interactions between insect herbivores.

Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa

We describe the nature of recent (50 year) rainfall variability in the summer rainfall zone, South Africa, and how variability is recognised and responded to on the ground by farmers. Using daily rainfall data and self-organising mapping (SOM) we identify 12 internally homogeneous rainfall regions displaying differing parameters of precipitation change. Three regions, characterised by changing onset and timing of rains, rainfall frequencies and intensities, in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu Natal provinces, were selected to investigate farmer perceptions of, and responses to, rainfall parameter changes. Village and household level analyses demonstrate that the trends and variabilities in precipitation parameters differentiated by the SOM analysis were clearly recognised by people living in the areas in which they occurred. A range of specific coping and adaptation strategies are employed by farmers to respond to climate shifts, some generic across regions and some facilitated by specific local factors. The study has begun to understand the complexity of coping and adaptation, and the factors that influence the decisions that are taken.

Food crops in a changing climate

Changes in both the mean and the variability of climate, whether naturally forced, or due to human activities, pose a threat to crop production globally. This paper summarizes discussions of this issue at a meeting of the Royal Society in April 2005. Recent advances in understanding the sensitivity of crops to weather, climate and the levels of particular gases in the atmosphere indicate that the impact of these factors on crop yields and quality may be more severe than previously thought. There is increasing information on the importance to crop yields of extremes of temperature and rainfall at key stages of crop development. Agriculture will itself impact on the climate system and a greater understanding of these feedbacks is needed. Complex models are required to perform simulations of climate variability and change, together with predictions of how crops will respond to different climate variables. Variability of climate, such as that associated with El Niño events, has large impacts on crop production. If skilful predictions of the probability of such events occurring can be made a season or more in advance, then agricultural and other societal responses can be made. The development of strategies to adapt to variations in the current climate may also build resilience to changes in future climate. Africa will be the part of the world that is most vulnerable to climate variability and change, but knowledge of how to use climate information and the regional impacts of climate variability and change in Africa is rudimentary. In order to develop appropriate adaptation strategies globally, predictions about changes in the quantity and quality of food crops need to be considered in the context of the entire food chain from production to distribution, access and utilization. Recommendations for future research priorities are given.

Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term relationships between environment and abundance in wheat of Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola

Relationships between weather, agronomic factors and wheat disease abundance were examined to determine possible causes of variability on century time scales. In archived samples of wheat grain and leaves obtained from the Rothamsted Broadbalk experiment archive (1844-2003), amounts of wheat, Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola DNA were determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Relationships between amounts of pathogens and environmental and agronomic factors were examined by multiple regression. Wheat DNA decayed at approx. 1% yr(-1) in stored grain. No M. graminicola DNA was detected in grain samples. Fluctuations in amounts of P. nodorum in grain were related to changes in spring rainfall, summer temperature and national SO2 emission. Differences in amounts of P. nodorum between grain and leaf were related to summer temperature and spring rainfall. In leaves, annual variation in spring rainfall affected both pathogens similarly, but SO2 had opposite effects. Previous summer temperature had a highly significant effect on M. graminicola. Cultivar effects were significant only at P = 0.1. Long-term variation in P. nodorum and M. graminicola DNA in leaf and grain over the period 1844-2003 was dominated by factors related to national SO2 emissions. Annual variability was dominated by weather factors occurring over a period longer than the growing season.

Environmental variation at the onset of independent foraging affects full-grown body mass in the red fox

The period following the withdrawal of parental care has been highlighted as a key developmental period for juveniles. One reason for this is that juveniles cannot forage as competently as adults, potentially placing them at greater risk from environmentally-induced changes in food availability. However, no study has examined this topic. Using a long-term dataset on red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), we examined (i) dietary changes that occurred in the one-month period following the attainment of nutritional independence, (ii) diet composition in relation to climatic variation, and (iii) the effect of climatic variation on subsequent full-grown mass. Diet at nutritional independence contained increased quantities of easy-to-catch food items (earthworms and insects) when compared with pre-independence. Interannual variation in the volume of rainfall at nutritional independence was positively correlated to the proportion of earthworms in cub diet. Pre-independence cub mass and rainfall immediately following nutritional independence explained a significant proportion of variance in full-grown mass, with environmental variation affecting full-grown mass of the entire cohorts. Thus, weather-mediated availability of easy-to-catch food items at a key developmental stage has lifelong implications for the development of juvenile foxes by affecting full-grown mass, which in turn appears to be an important component of individual reproductive potential.

Phylogeny of Pelargonium (Geraniaceae) based on DNA sequences from three genomes

Phylogenetic hypotheses for the largely South African genus Pelargonium L'Hér. (Geraniaceae) were derived based on DNA sequence data from nuclear, chloroplast and mitochondrial encoded regions. The datasets were unequally represented and comprised cpDNA trnL-F sequences for 152 taxa, nrDNA ITS sequences for 55 taxa, and mtDNA nad1 b/c exons for 51 taxa. Phylogenetic hypotheses derived from the separate three datasets were overall congruent. A single hypothesis synthesising the information in the three datasets was constructed following a total evidence approach and implementing dataset specific stepmatrices in order to correct for substitution biases. Pelargonium was found to consist of five main clades, some with contrasting evolutionary patterns with respect to biogeographic distributions, dispersal capacity, pollination biology and karyological diversification. The five main clades are structured in two (subgeneric) clades that correlate with chromosome size. One of these clades includes a "winter rainfall clade" containing more than 70% of all currently described Pelargonium species, and all restricted to the South African Cape winter rainfall region. Apart from (woody) shrubs and small herbaceous rosette subshrubs, this clade comprises a large "xerophytic" clade including geophytes, stem and leaf succulents, harbouring in total almost half of the genus. This clade is considered to be the result of in situ proliferation, possibly in response to late-Miocene and Pliocene aridification events. Nested within it is a radiation comprising c. 80 species from the geophytic Pelargonium section Hoarea, all characterised by the possession of (a series of) tunicate tubers.

Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity

1. We studied a reintroduced population of the formerly critically endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus Temmink from its inception in 1987 until 2002, by which time the population had attained carrying capacity for the study area. Post-1994 the population received minimal management other than the provision of nestboxes. 2. We analysed data collected on survival (1987-2002) using program MARK to explore the influence of density-dependent and independent processes on survival over the course of the population's development. 3.We found evidence for non-linear, threshold density dependence in juvenile survival rates. Juvenile survival was also strongly influenced by climate, with the temporal distribution of rainfall during the cyclone season being the most influential climatic variable. Adult survival remained constant throughout. 4. Our most parsimonious capture-mark-recapture statistical model, which was constrained by density and climate, explained 75.4% of the temporal variation exhibited in juvenile survival rates over the course of the population's development. 5. This study is an example of how data collected as part of a threatened species recovery programme can be used to explore the role and functional form of natural population regulatory processes. With the improvements in conservation management techniques and the resulting success stories, formerly threatened species offer unique opportunities to further our understanding of the fundamental principles of population ecology.

Is there a relationship between soil and groundwater toxicity?

Part IIA of the Environmental Protection Act 1990 requires environmental regulators to assess the risk of contaminants leaching from soils into groundwater (DETR, 1999). This newly introduced legislation assumes a link between soil and groundwater chemistry, in which rainwater leaches contaminants from soil into the saturated zone. As the toxicity of both groundwater and overlying soils is dependent upon the chemicals present, their partitioning and their bioavailability, similar patterns of soil, leachates and groundwater toxicity should be observed at contaminated sites. Soil and groundwater samples were collected from different contaminated land sites in an urban area, and used to determine relationships between soil chemistry and toxicity, mobility of contaminants, and groundwater chemistry and toxicity. Soils were leached using water to mimic rainfall, and both the soils and leachates tested using bioassays. Soil bioassays were carried out using Eisenia fetida, whilst groundwater and leachates were tested using the Microtox(TM) test system and Daphnia magna 48 h acute tests. Analysis of the bioassay responses demonstrated that a number of the samples were toxic to test organisms, however, there were no significant statistical relationships between soil, groundwater and leachate toxicity. Nor were there significant correlations between soil, leachates and groundwater chemistry.

Growth, yield and development of strawberry cv. 'Elsanta' under novel photoselective film clad greenhouses

Film greenhouse claddings are typically used to protect horticultural crops from low temperature and high rainfall conditions. However, a range of novel plastic films have been developed which filter specific radiation wavelengths with the aim of providing the grower with greater control of crop growth and development. A replicated experiment was conducted in 8 small experimental greenhouses, covered with different photoselective films characterised by a range of red/far-red ratios and PAR transmissions to study their effects on the growth, yield and quality of the strawberry cv. 'Elsanta'. Marketable yield per plant was 51% greater under the film with the highest light transmission (control) compared with the lower light transmission films. Similarly, unmarketable fruit number and average non-marketable individual fruit weight per plant was lowest under films with higher light transmissions and higher under lower light transmission films. Cropping duration was longer under films with high R/FR. Also plants under high R/FR were more compact (due to shorter petiole lengths) compared to plants grown under low R/FR. The results are discussed in relation to the increased use of photoselective films in protected horticulture and the need for higher quality fruit and vegetables.