Aspects of particle filtering in high-dimensional spaces

Nonlinear data assimilation is high on the agenda in all fields of the geosciences as with ever increasing model resolution and inclusion of more physical (biological etc.) processes, and more complex observation operators the data-assimilation problem becomes more and more nonlinear. The suitability of particle filters to solve the nonlinear data assimilation problem in high-dimensional geophysical problems will be discussed. Several existing and new schemes will be presented and it is shown that at least one of them, the Equivalent-Weights Particle Filter, does indeed beat the curse of dimensionality and provides a way forward to solve the problem of nonlinear data assimilation in high-dimensional systems.

Caught in the eye of the storm: a qualitative study of views and experiences of planned drug holidays from methylphenidate in child and adolescent ADHD treatment

Background: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) can be treated with stimulant medication such as methylphenidate. Although effective, methylphenidate can cause serious side-effects, including suppressed appetite, growth retardation and sleep problems. A drug holiday is a deliberate interruption of pharmacotherapy for a defined period of time and for a specific clinical purpose, for example for appeasing side-effects. Whilst some international guidelines recommend introducing drug holidays in ADHD treatment, this is not practised routinely. Our aim was to examine the views and experiences of planned drug holidays from methylphenidate with adults who have responsibility for treatment decisions in children and adolescents with ADHD. Method: In-depth interviews were carried out. Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) practitioners (n=8), General Practitioners (n=8), teachers (n=5), and mothers of children with ADHD (n=4) were interviewed in a UK setting. Interview transcripts were analysed using grounded theory. Results: Methylphenidate eases the experience of the child amid problems at home and at school and once started is mostly continued long-term. Some families do practise short-term drug holidays at weekends and longer-term ones during school holidays. The decision to introduce drug holidays is influenced by the child’s academic progress, the parents’ ability to cope with the child, as well as medication beliefs. Trialling a drug holiday is thought to allow older children to self-assess their ability to manage without medication when they show signs of wanting to discontinue treatment prematurely. Conclusions: Planned drug holidays could address premature treatment cessation by enabling adolescents to assess repercussions under medical supervision.

Climatology, storm morphologies, and environments of tornadoes in the British Isles: 1980–2012

A climatology is developed for tornadoes during 1980–2012 in the British Isles, defined in this article as England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Channel Islands, and the Isle of Man. The climatology includes parent storm type, interannual variability, annual and diurnal cycles, intensities, oc- currence of outbreaks (defined as three or more tornadoes in the same day), geographic distribution, and environmental conditions derived from proximity soundings of tornadoes. Tornado reports are from the Tornado and Storm Research Organization (TORRO). Over the 33 years, there were a mean of 34.3 tor- nadoes and 19.5 tornado days (number of days in which at least one tornado occurred) annually. Tornadoes and tornado outbreaks were most commonly produced from linear storms, defined as radar signatures at least 75 km long and approximately 3 times as long as wide. Most (78%) tornadoes occurred in England. The probability of a tornado within 10 km of a point was highest in the south, southeast, and west of England. On average, there were 2.5 tornado outbreaks every year. Where intensity was known, 95% of tornadoes were classified as F0 or F1 with the remainder classified as F2. There were no tornadoes rated F3 or greater during this time period. Tornadoes occurred throughout the year with a maximum from May through October. Finally, tornadoes tended to occur in low-CAPE, high-shear environments. Tornadoes in the British Isles were difficult to predict using only sounding-derived parameters because there were no clear thresholds between null, tornadic, outbreak, and significant tornado cases.

Implicit equal-weights particle filter

Filter degeneracy is the main obstacle for the implementation of particle filter in non-linear high-dimensional models. A new scheme, the implicit equal-weights particle filter (IEWPF), is introduced. In this scheme samples are drawn implicitly from proposal densities with a different covariance for each particle, such that all particle weights are equal by construction. We test and explore the properties of the new scheme using a 1,000-dimensional simple linear model, and the 1,000-dimensional non-linear Lorenz96 model, and compare the performance of the scheme to a Local Ensemble Kalman Filter. The experiments show that the new scheme can easily be implemented in high-dimensional systems and is never degenerate, with good convergence properties in both systems.

Single-particle tracking uncovers dynamics of glutamate-induced retrograde transport of NF-κB p65 in living neurons

Retrograde transport of NF-κB from the synapse to the nucleus in neurons is mediated by the dynein/dynactin motor complex and can be triggered by synaptic activation. The calibre of axons is highly variable ranging down to 100 nm, aggravating the investigation of transport processes in neurites of living neurons using conventional light microscopy. In this study we quantified for the first time the transport of the NF-κB subunit p65 using high-density single-particle tracking in combination with photoactivatable fluorescent proteins in living mouse hippocampal neurons. We detected an increase of the mean diffusion coefficient (Dmean) in neurites from 0.12 ± 0.05 µm2/s to 0.61 ± 0.03 µm2/s after stimulation with glutamate. We further observed that the relative amount of retrogradely transported p65 molecules is increased after stimulation. Glutamate treatment resulted in an increase of the mean retrograde velocity from 10.9 ± 1.9 to 15 ± 4.9 µm/s, whereas a velocity increase from 9 ± 1.3 to 14 ± 3 µm/s was observed for anterogradely transported p65. This study demonstrates for the first time that glutamate stimulation leads to an increased mobility of single NF-κB p65 molecules in neurites of living hippocampal neurons.

Coupling an aerosol box model with one-dimensional flow: a tool for understanding observations of new particle formation events

Field observations of new particle formation and the subsequent particle growth are typically only possible at a fixed measurement location, and hence do not follow the temporal evolution of an air parcel in a Lagrangian sense. Standard analysis for determining formation and growth rates requires that the time-dependent formation rate and growth rate of the particles are spatially invariant; air parcel advection means that the observed temporal evolution of the particle size distribution at a fixed measurement location may not represent the true evolution if there are spatial variations in the formation and growth rates. Here we present a zero-dimensional aerosol box model coupled with one-dimensional atmospheric flow to describe the impact of advection on the evolution of simulated new particle formation events. Wind speed, particle formation rates and growth rates are input parameters that can vary as a function of time and location, using wind speed to connect location to time. The output simulates measurements at a fixed location; formation and growth rates of the particle mode can then be calculated from the simulated observations at a stationary point for different scenarios and be compared with the ‘true’ input parameters. Hence, we can investigate how spatial variations in the formation and growth rates of new particles would appear in observations of particle number size distributions at a fixed measurement site. We show that the particle size distribution and growth rate at a fixed location is dependent on the formation and growth parameters upwind, even if local conditions do not vary. We also show that different input parameters used may result in very similar simulated measurements. Erroneous interpretation of observations in terms of particle formation and growth rates, and the time span and areal extent of new particle formation, is possible if the spatial effects are not accounted for.

A comparison between large-scale irregularities and scintillations in the polar ionosphere

A comparison tool has been developed by mapping the global GPS total electron content (TEC) and large coverage of ionospheric scintillations together on the geomagnetic latitude/magnetic local time coordinates. Using this tool, a comparison between large-scale ionospheric irregularities and scintillations are pursued during a geomagnetic storm. Irregularities, such as storm enhanced density (SED), middle-latitude trough and polar cap patches, are clearly identified from the TEC maps. At the edges of these irregularities, clear scintillations appeared but their behaviors were different. Phase scintillations (σsub{φ}) were almost always larger than amplitude scintillations (S4) at the edges of these irregularities, associated with bursty flows or flow reversals with large density gradients. An unexpected scintillation feature appeared inside the modeled auroral oval where S4 were much larger than σsub{φ}, most likely caused by particle precipitations around the exiting polar cap patches.