On the statistical modeling of persistence in total ozone anomalies

Geophysical time series sometimes exhibit serial correlations that are stronger than can be captured by the commonly used first‐order autoregressive model. In this study we demonstrate that a power law statistical model serves as a useful upper bound for the persistence of total ozone anomalies on monthly to interannual timescales. Such a model is usually characterized by the Hurst exponent. We show that the estimation of the Hurst exponent in time series of total ozone is sensitive to various choices made in the statistical analysis, especially whether and how the deterministic (including periodic) signals are filtered from the time series, and the frequency range over which the estimation is made. In particular, care must be taken to ensure that the estimate of the Hurst exponent accurately represents the low‐frequency limit of the spectrum, which is the part that is relevant to long‐term correlations and the uncertainty of estimated trends. Otherwise, spurious results can be obtained. Based on this analysis, and using an updated equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) function, we predict that an increase in total ozone attributable to EESC should be detectable at the 95% confidence level by 2015 at the latest in southern midlatitudes, and by 2020–2025 at the latest over 30°–45°N, with the time to detection increasing rapidly with latitude north of this range.

Modeling image motion in airborne Three-Line-Array (TLA) push-broom cameras

This paper presents an image motion model for airborne three-line-array (TLA) push-broom cameras. Both aircraft velocity and attitude instability are taken into account in modeling image motion. Effects of aircraft pitch, roll, and yaw on image motion are analyzed based on geometric relations in designated coordinate systems. The image motion is mathematically modeled by image motion velocity multiplied by exposure time. Quantitative analysis to image motion velocity is then conducted in simulation experiments. The results have shown that image motion caused by aircraft velocity is space invariant while image motion caused by aircraft attitude instability is more complicated. Pitch,roll and yaw all contribute to image motion to different extents. Pitch dominates the along-track image motion and both roll and yaw greatly contribute to the cross-track image motion. These results provide a valuable base for image motion compensation to ensure high accuracy imagery in aerial photogrammetry.