Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts

Existing empirical evidence has frequently observed that professional forecasters are conservative and display herding behaviour. Whilst a large number of papers have considered equities as well as macroeconomic series, few have considered the accuracy of forecasts in alternative asset classes such as real estate. We consider the accuracy of forecasts for the UK commercial real estate market over the period 1999-2011. The results illustrate that forecasters display a tendency to under-estimate growth rates during strong market conditions and over-estimate when the market is performing poorly. This conservatism not only results in smoothed estimates but also implies that forecasters display herding behaviour. There is also a marked difference in the relative accuracy of capital and total returns versus rental figures. Whilst rental growth forecasts are relatively accurate, considerable inaccuracy is observed with respect to capital value and total returns.

The role of index trading in price formation in the grains and oilseeds markets

We use both Granger-causality and instrumental variables (IV) methods to examine the impact of index fund positions on price returns for the main US grains and oilseed futures markets. Our analysis supports earlier conclusions that Granger-causal impacts are generally not discernible. However, market microstructure theory suggests trading impacts should be instantaneous. IV-based tests for contemporaneous causality provide stronger evidence of price impact. We find even stronger evidence that changes in index positions can help predict future changes in aggregate commodity price indices. This result suggests that changes in index investment are in part driven by information which predicts commodity price changes over the coming months.

Does foreign investment affect US office real estate prices?

his article examines the impact of foreign real estate investment on U.S. office market capitalization rates. The geographic unit of analysis is MSA and the time period is 2001–2013. Drawing upon a database of commercial real estate transactions, the authors model the determinants of market capitalization rates with a particular focus on the significance of the proportion of market transactions involving foreign investors. Employing several econometric techniques to analyze the data, the results suggest statistically significant effects of foreign investment across 38 U.S. metro areas. It is estimated that, all else equal, a 100 basis point increase in foreign share of total investment in a U.S. metropolitan office market causes about an 8 basis point decrease in the market cap rate.

A review of Islamic mutual funds’ financial performance and investment style in Muslim and non-Muslim countries

Islamic finance has grown beyond its reputation of providing small-scale banking options and now provides investment and financing options for complex large-scale commercial transactions. Islamic investments are one area that has attracted the attention of investors due to its performance, especially during the economic downturn. The Shari’ah compliance nature of Islamic funds provides an opportunity for those Muslim investors to be part of the global investment sector who have previously been reluctant to invest in conventional mutual funds. The fact that the funds’ managers are prohibited from investing in activities such as weapons production, alcohol production and interest-bearing finance operations, makes Islamic mutual funds also attractive for those Non-Muslim investors who wish to invest ethically. Today there are hundreds of Islamic equity indices offered by Dow Jones, FTSE, MSCI and S&P. Despite the growing importance of Islamic funds, there have been limited studies exploring the performance of Islamic funds worldwide. Due to very limited data sets and not too rigorous analytical methods, these existent studies have neither investigated Islamic funds’ financial performance in noticeable detail nor analysed the investment style of more than six funds. For instance, relevant questions such as the financial performance of Islamic mutual funds’ beyond their investment styles or a difference in performance between funds from Muslim and non-Muslim countries have nearly not been investigated at all. Very recently, a study by Hoepner, Rammal and Rezec (2011) analysed the financial performance and investment style of 262 Islamic equity funds from 20 countries in five regions (Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, Gulf Cooperative Council-GCC, and North America). As comparison, previous studies did not even analyse 60 funds. Hoepner et al.’s study sampled a period of two decades and was therefore able to test the performance of the funds during economic booms as well as economic downturns. The findings of the study provide new insights into the performance of Islamic mutual funds in Muslim and Western markets and during financial crisis.

The determinants of inward foreign direct investment in business services across European regions

The determinants of inward foreign direct investment in business services across European regions, Regional Studies. The role of forward linkages with manufacturing sectors and other service sectors as attractors of business services foreign direct investment (FDI) is studied at the regional level. Using data on 146 NUTS-2 regions, it is found that regions specialized in those (manufacturing) sectors that are high potential users of business services attract more FDI in the business services than other regions. Results are robust to the inclusion of the traditional determinants of foreign investments at the regional level as well as to controls for spatial dependence. The results suggest that regional policies aimed at attracting foreign investors in the business service industry might prove ineffective in the absence of a pre-existing local intermediate demand

Long-run restrictions and survey forecasts of output, consumption and investment

We consider the extent to which long-horizon survey forecasts of consumption, investment and output growth are consistent with theory-based steady-state values, and whether imposing these restrictions on long-horizon forecasts will enhance their accuracy. The restrictions we impose are consistent with a two-sector model in which the variables grow at different rates in steady state. The restrictions are imposed by exponential-tilting of simple auxiliary forecast densities. We show that imposing the consumption-output restriction yields modest improvements in the long-horizon output growth forecasts, and larger improvements in the forecasts of the cointegrating combination of consumption and output: the transformation of the data on which accuracy is assessed plays an important role.

Investigation of institutional investors’ responsible investment practices in UK

The focus of Corporate Governance is shifting from the role of directors to active ownership. Based on their fiduciary duty to other shareholders, it is believed that institutional investors have an important role to play in this regard. However, the Pension Funds and the Sovereign Wealth Organisations are not driven by the same set of objectives. In addition, Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) issues in investment decision-making are now becoming more important and they are capable of becoming the mainstream in the future. However, there are widespread variations in perception of fiduciary responsibilities, ESG issues appraisal, as well as the strategies adopted by institutional investors on shareholder engagement as responsible investors. Responsible Investment market is largely driven by institutional investors and they are expected to continue to lead the way. This research work investigates the role of the main asset owners and their advisors in responsible investment practices in the UK. It adopts a qualitative approach using semi-structured interviews, questionnaire and meetings observations. Gathered data is analysed using grounded theory and the findings highlight the perception of the various investor groups to corporate governance. The research work contributes to the body of knowledge by assessing the corporate governance perspectives of the various classes of institutional investors which may have practical implications for other countries.

Using proxies to calculate the carbon impact of investment into electricity network assets

Replacement and upgrading of assets in the electricity network requires financial investment for the distribution and transmission utilities. The replacement and upgrading of network assets also represents an emissions impact due to the carbon embodied in the materials used to manufacture network assets. This paper uses investment and asset data for the GB system for 2015-2023 to assess the suitability of using a proxy with peak demand data and network investment data to calculate the carbon impacts of network investments. The proxies are calculated on a regional basis and applied to calculate the embodied carbon associated with current network assets by DNO region. The proxies are also applied to peak demand data across the 2015-2023 period to estimate the expected levels of embodied carbon that will be associated with network investment during this period. The suitability of these proxies in different contexts are then discussed, along with initial scenario analysis to calculate the impact of avoiding or deferring network investments through distributed generation projects. The proxies were found to be effective in estimating the total embodied carbon of electricity system investment in order to compare investment strategies in different regions of the GB network.

Exploring methods to evaluate the carbon impact of network investment deferral

Replacement, expansion and upgrading of assets in the electricity network represents financial investment for the distribution utilities. Network Investment Deferral (NID) is a well discussed benefit of wider adoption of Distributed Generation (DG). There have been many attempts to quantify and evaluate the financial benefit for the distribution utilities. While the carbon benefits of NID are commonly mentioned, there is little attempt to quantify these impacts. This paper explores the quantitative methods previously used to evaluate financial benefits in order to discuss the carbon impacts. These carbon impacts are important for companies owning DG equipment for internal reporting and emissions reductions ambitions. Currently, a GB wide approach is taken as a means for discussing more regional and local methods to be used in future work. By investigating these principles, the paper offers a novel approach to quantifying carbon emissions from various DG technologies.

The evolution and heterogeneity of outward foreign direct investment from Latin America

The PhD dissertation investigates the rise of emerging country multinationals (EMNEs), a phenomenon that has opened up a series of research themes and debates. The main debate in this field is the extent to which the theories/frameworks on foreign direct investment (FDI), which have been developed from investigations on multinationals from developed countries, is relevant in explaining outward FDI from EMNEs. This debate is sparked by research suggesting that EMNEs supposedly do not hold the characteristics that are seen as a prerequisite to engaging in FDI. The underlying theme in this PhD is that the field should move away from a one size fit all categorisation of EMNEs, and explore the heterogeneity within EMNEs. Collecting data through various databases, archival articles and annual reports, there was an examination of the internationalisation process of 136 Latin American Multinationals (LAMNEs). The research explores the differences in internationalisation trajectories and global strategies and classifies firms into one of four categories. The four categories that LAMNEs fall into are: Natural-Resource Vertical Integrator, which are firms that are in resource seeking sectors; Accelerated Global, which depict firms that have become global over a very short period of time; Traditional Global, which are EMNEs that have internationalised at the same pace as developed country MNEs and Local Optimisers that only acquire or internationalise to developing countries. The analysis also looks at which decade LAMNEs engaged in FDI, to see if LAMNEs that internationalised during the 1970s and 1980s, during a time when Latin America had a closed economy, was different to LAMNEs that internationalised during the Washington consensus era of the 1990s or to firms that have only just internationalised within the last decade. The findings show that LAMNEs that internationalised before 1990 were more likely to adopt Local Optimiser strategies. However, more LAMNEs that started to internationalise during the 1990s started to adopt Traditional Global strategies, although Local Optimisers were the most prominent strategy. From 2002, there was more prominence of Accelerated Global strategies and a lot more heterogeneity among LAMNEs. Natural-Resource Vertical Integrator LAMNEs, tended to start to internationalisation process during the 1970s/1980s. Despite the rise of EMNEs, and by extension LAMNEs opting to use cross border merger and acquisitions (M&A), there is little research on whether this entry mode has been successful. Contrary to the argument that EMNEs are “internationalising successfully” through this strategy, the findings show that these firms are highly geared and are running less efficiently against their Western competitors. In comparison, LAMNEs internationalising through a more gradual approach, are outperforming their Western competitors on efficiency and are not highly geared- i.e. do not hold a lot of debt. The conclusion of the thesis is the emphasis of moving away from evaluating firms from their country or region of origin, but rather through the global strategy they are using. This will give a more a robust firm level of analysis, and help develop the understanding of EMNEs and international business theory.