The 2013 hot, dry summer in Western Europe

The European summer of 2013 was marked by hot and dry conditions in Western Europe associated with a northward shifted Atlantic storm track and a positive phase of the SNAO. Model results suggest that, relative to a 1964–93 reference period, changes in SST/SIE explain 63% (±26%) of the area-averaged warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37% (±29%) explained by the direct impact of changes in anthropogenic radiative forcings from GHG and aerosols. The results further suggest that the anomalous atmospheric circulation, and associated low rainfall, were also influenced both by changes in SST/SIE and by the direct impact of changes in radiative forcings; however, the magnitude of the forced signals in these variables is much less, relative to internal variability, than for surface air temperature. Further evidence suggests that changes in North Atlantic SST were likely an important factor in explaining the striking contrast between the European summers of 2013 and that of 2012. A major area for further work is to understand more completely the mechanisms that explain these influences.

Information and predictability: bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters as forecasters

The more information is available, and the more predictable are events, the better forecasts ought to be. In this paper forecasts by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters are evaluated for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. All three types of forecast represent different structures of information processing and as such would be expected to perform differently. By and large, events that are more predictable, and for which more information is available, do tend to be forecast better.

Intercomparison of general circulation models for hot extrasolar planets

We compare five general circulation models (GCMs) which have been recently used to study hot extrasolar planet atmospheres (BOB, CAM, IGCM, MITgcm, and PEQMOD), under three test cases useful for assessing model convergence and accuracy. Such a broad, detailed intercomparison has not been performed thus far for extrasolar planets study. The models considered all solve the traditional primitive equations, but employ di↵erent numerical algorithms or grids (e.g., pseudospectral and finite volume, with the latter separately in longitude-latitude and ‘cubed-sphere’ grids). The test cases are chosen to cleanly address specific aspects of the behaviors typically reported in hot extrasolar planet simulations: 1) steady-state, 2) nonlinearly evolving baroclinic wave, and 3) response to fast timescale thermal relaxation. When initialized with a steady jet, all models maintain the steadiness, as they should—except MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid. A very good agreement is obtained for a baroclinic wave evolving from an initial instability in pseudospectral models (only). However, exact numerical convergence is still not achieved across the pseudospectral models: amplitudes and phases are observably di↵erent. When subject to a typical ‘hot-Jupiter’-like forcing, all five models show quantitatively di↵erent behavior—although qualitatively similar, time-variable, quadrupole-dominated flows are produced. Hence, as have been advocated in several past studies, specific quantitative predictions (such as the location of large vortices and hot regions) by GCMs should be viewed with caution. Overall, in the tests considered here, pseudospectral models in pressure coordinate (PEBOB and PEQMOD) perform the best and MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid performs the worst.

Baroclinic instability on hot extrasolar planets

We investigate baroclinic instability in flow conditions relevant to hot extrasolar planets. The instability is important for transporting and mixing heat, as well as for influencing large-scale variability on the planets. Both linear normal mode analysis and non-linear initial value cal- culations are carried out – focusing on the freely-evolving, adiabatic situation. Using a high- resolution general circulation model (GCM) which solves the traditional primitive equations, we show that large-scale jets similar to those observed in current GCM simulations of hot ex- trasolar giant planets are likely to be baroclinically unstable on a timescale of few to few tens of planetary rotations, generating cyclones and anticyclones that drive weather systems. The growth rate and scale of the most unstable mode obtained in the linear analysis are in qual- itative, good agreement with the full non-linear calculations. In general, unstable jets evolve differently depending on their signs (eastward or westward), due to the change in sign of the jet curvature. For jets located at or near the equator, instability is strong at the flanks – but not at the core. Crucially, the instability is either poorly or not at all captured in simulations with low resolution and/or high artificial viscosity. Hence, the instability has not been observed or emphasized in past circulation studies of hot extrasolar planets.

Methane in the atmosphere of the transiting hot Neptune GJ436b?

We present an analysis of seven primary transit observations of the hot Neptune GJ436b at 3.6, 4.5, and 8 μm obtained with the Infrared Array Camera on the Spitzer Space Telescope. After correcting for systematic effects, we fitted the light curves using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Combining these new data with the EPOXI, Hubble Space Telescope, and ground-based V, I, H, and Ks published observations, the range 0.5-10 μm can be covered. Due to the low level of activity of GJ436, the effect of starspots on the combination of transits at different epochs is negligible at the accuracy of the data set. Representative climate models were calculated by using a three-dimensional, pseudospectral general circulation model with idealized thermal forcing. Simulated transit spectra of GJ436b were generated using line-by-line radiative transfer models including the opacities of the molecular species expected to be present in such a planetary atmosphere. A new, ab-initio-calculated, line list for hot ammonia has been used for the first time. The photometric data observed at multiple wavelengths can be interpreted with methane being the dominant absorption after molecular hydrogen, possibly with minor contributions from ammonia, water, and other molecules. No clear evidence of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide is found from transit photometry. We discuss this result in the light of a recent paper where photochemical disequilibrium is hypothesized to interpret secondary transit photometric data. We show that the emission photometric data are not incompatible with the presence of abundant methane, but further spectroscopic data are desirable to confirm this scenario.

Time-varying price discovery in the eighteenth century: empirical evidence from the London and Amsterdam stock markets

This paper examines the time-varying nature of price discovery in eighteenth century cross-listed stocks. Specifically, we investigate how quickly news is reflected in prices for two of the great moneyed com- panies, the Bank of England and the East India Company, over the period 1723 to 1794. These British companies were cross-listed on the London and Amsterdam stock exchange and news between the capitals flowed mainly via the use of boats that transported mail. We examine in detail the historical context sur- rounding the defining events of the period, and use these as a guide to how the data should be analysed. We show that both trading venues contributed to price discovery, and although the London venue was more important for these stocks, its importance varies over time.

Booms and busts in commodity markets: bubbles or fundamentals?

This paper considers whether there were periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in commodity prices over a 40-year period from the late 1960s. We apply a switching regression approach to a broad range of commodities using two different measures of fundamental values—estimated from convenience yields and from a set of macroeconomic factors believed to affect commodity demand. We find reliable evidence for bubbles only among crude oil and feeder cattle, showing the popular belief that the extreme price movements observed in commodity markets were caused by pure speculation to be unsustainable

Speculative bubble spillovers across regional housing markets

In this paper we determine whether speculative bubbles in one region in the United States can lead bubbles to form in others. We first apply a regime-switching model to determine whether speculative bubbles existed in the U.S. regional residential real estate markets. Our findings suggest that the housing markets in five of the nine census divisions investigated were characterized by speculative bubbles. We then examine the extent to which bubbles spill over between neighboring and more distant regions, finding that the transmission of speculative bubbles and nonfundamentals between regions is multidirectional and does not depend on contiguity or distance

On the predictive content of leading indicators: the case of U.S. real estate markets

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. We find that while the Markov switching model appears to be more successful, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect whether rental growth will be positive or negative several quarters ahead.

Cortical hot spots and labyrinths: why cortical neuromodulation for episodic migraine with aura should be personalized

Stimulation protocols for medical devices should be rationally designed. For episodic migraine with aura we outline model-based design strategies toward preventive and acute therapies using stereotactic cortical neuromodulation. To this end, we regard a localized spreading depression (SD) wave segment as a central element in migraine pathophysiology. To describe nucleation and propagation features of the SD wave segment, we define the new concepts of cortical hot spots and labyrinths, respectively. In particular, we firstly focus exclusively on curvature-induced dynamical properties by studying a generic reaction-diffusion model of SD on the folded cortical surface. This surface is described with increasing level of details, including finally personalized simulations using patient's magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner readings. At this stage, the only relevant factor that can modulate nucleation and propagation paths is the Gaussian curvature, which has the advantage of being rather readily accessible by MRI. We conclude with discussing further anatomical factors, such as areal, laminar, and cellular heterogeneity, that in addition to and in relation to Gaussian curvature determine the generalized concept of cortical hot spots and labyrinths as target structures for neuromodulation. Our numerical simulations suggest that these target structures are like fingerprints, they are individual features of each migraine sufferer. The goal in the future will be to provide individualized neural tissue simulations. These simulations should predict the clinical data and therefore can also serve as a test bed for exploring stereotactic cortical neuromodulation.

Assessing the benefits of domestic hot fill washing appliances

Washing machine and dishwasher appliance use accounts for approximately 10% of electricity demand in EU households. The majority of this demand is due to the operation of electric heating elements inside appliances. This paper investigates the potential benefits that can be realised by adding a hot fill connection to washing appliances, with respect to carbon emissions, demand side management and renewable energy integration. Initial laboratory testing of new hot and cold fill appliances has resulted in modifications to optimise hot fill intake, and a novel numerical model presents a method of characterising appliance electricity use in different configurations. In order to validate model findings and test the use of new hot fill appliances in situ, a pilot study has recorded appliances’ resource consumption at one-minute resolution in fourteen households. The addition of hot fill reduced the total dishwasher and washing machine electricity consumption by 38% and 67% respectively. Depending on how hot water is supplied to appliances it is estimated that hot fill use results in an annual household carbon saving of up to 147 kgCO2. Further to direct electricity reduction, hot fill appliances can offer a method of time shifting demand away from peak periods without inconveniencing occupants’ lifestyles.

International transmission mechanisms and contagion in housing markets

This paper explores international transmission mechanism and its role in contagion effect in the housing markets across six major Asian cities. The analysis is based on the identification of house price diffusion effects through a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model estimated using quarterly data for six major Asian cities (Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Bangkok) from 1991Q1 to 2011Q2. The empirical results indicate that the open economies heavily relying on international trade such as Singapore, Japan (Tokyo), Taiwan (Taipei) and Thailand (Bangkok) show positive correlations between the economy's openness and house prices, which is consistent with the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis. Interestingly, some region-specific conditions also appear to play important roles as determinants of house price movements, which may be driven by restrictive housing policies and demand–supply imbalances such as Singapore and Bangkok. These results are reasonably robust across several model specifications. The findings bear significant implications for formulation of investment strategy and public policies.