Monsoon changes for 6000 years ago: results of 18 simulations from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP).

Amplification of the northern hemisphere seasonal cycle of insolation during the mid-Holocene causes a northward shift of the main regions of monsoon precipitation over Africa and India in all 18 simulations conducted for the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Differences among simulations are related to differences in model formulation. Despite qualitative agreement with paleoecological estimates of biome shifts, the magnitude of the monsoon increases over northern Africa are underestimated by all the models.

The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions

14C-dated pollen and lake-level data from Europe are used to assess the spatial patterns of climate change between 6000 yr BP and present, as simulated by the NCAR CCM1 (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, version 1) in response to the change in the Earth’s orbital parameters during this perod. First, reconstructed 6000 yr BP values of bioclimate variables obtained from pollen and lake-level data with the constrained-analogue technique are compared with simulated values. Then a 6000 yr BP biome map obtained from pollen data with an objective biome reconstruction (biomization) technique is compared with BIOME model results derived from the same simulation. Data and simulations agree in some features: warmer-than-present growing seasons in N and C Europe allowed forests to extend further north and to higher elevations than today, and warmer winters in C and E Europe prevented boreal conifers from spreading west. More generally, however, the agreement is poor. Predominantly deciduous forest types in Fennoscandia imply warmer winters than the model allows. The model fails to simulate winters cold enough, or summers wet enough, to allow temperate deciduous forests their former extended distribution in S Europe, and it incorrectly simulates a much expanded area of steppe vegetation in SE Europe. Similar errors have also been noted in numerous 6000 yr BP simulations with prescribed modern sea surface temperatures. These errors are evidently not resolved by the inclusion of interactive sea-surface conditions in the CCM1. Accurate representation of mid-Holocene climates in Europe may require the inclusion of dynamical ocean–atmosphere and/or vegetation–atmosphere interactions that most palaeoclimate model simulations have so far disregarded.

Evaluation of modelled regional water balance using lake status data: a comparison of 6ka simulations with the NCAR CCM

Variations in lake area and depth reflect climatically induced changes in the water balance of overflowing as well as closed lakes. A new global data base of lake status has been assembled, and is used to compare two simulations for 6 ka (6000 yr ago) made with successive R15 versions of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM). Simulated water balance was expressed as anomalies of annual precipitation minus evaporation (P-E); observed water balance as anomalies of lake status. Comparisons were made visually, by comparing regional averages, and by a statistic that compares the signs of simulated P-E anomalies (smoothly interpolated to the lake sites) with the status anomalies. Both CCM0 and CCM1 showed enhanced Northern-Hemisphere monsoons at 6 ka. Both underestimated the effect, but CCM1 fitted the spatial patterns better. In the northern mid- and high-latitudes the two versions differed more, and fitted the data less satisfactorily. CCM1 performed better than CCM0 in North America and central Eurasia, but not in Europe. Both models (especially CCM0) simulated excessive aridity in interior Eurasia. The models were systematically wrong in the southern mid-latitudes. Problems may have been caused by inadequate treatment of changes in sea-surface conditions in both models. Palaeolake status data will continue to provide a benchmark for the evaluation of modelling improvements.

Climate and biome simulations for the past 21,000 years

This paper reports on a set of paleoclimate simulations for 21, 16, 14, 11 and 6 ka (thousands of years ago) carried out with the Community Climate Model, Version 1 (CCM1) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). This climate model uses four interactive components that were not available in our previous simulations with the NCAR CCM0 (COHMAP, 1988Science, 241, 1043–1052; Wright et al., 1993Global Climate Since the Last Glocial Maximum, University of Minnesota Press, MN): soil moisture, snow hydrology, sea-ice, and mixed-layer ocean temperature. The new simulations also use new estimates of ice sheet height and size from ( Peltier 1994, Science, 265, 195–201), and synchronize the astronomically dated orbital forcing with the ice sheet and atmospheric CO2 levels corrected from radiocarbon years to calendar years. The CCM1 simulations agree with the previous simulations in their most general characteristics. The 21 ka climate is cold and dry, in response to the presence of the ice sheets and lowered CO2 levels. The period 14–6 ka has strengthened northern summer monsoons and warm mid-latitude continental interiors in response to orbital changes. Regional differences between the CCM1 and CCM0 simulations can be traced to the effects of either the new interactive model components or the new boundary conditions. CCM1 simulates climate processes more realistically, but has additional degrees of freedom that can allow the model to ‘drift’ toward less realistic solutions in some instances. The CCM1 simulations are expressed in terms of equilibrium vegetation using BIOME 1, and indicate large shifts in biomes. Northern tundra and forest biomes are displaced southward at glacial maximum and subtropical deserts contract in the mid-Holocene when monsoons strengthen. These vegetation changes could, if simulated interactively, introduce additional climate feedbacks. The total area of vegetated land remains nearly constant through time because the exposure of continental shelves with lowered sea level largely compensates for the land covered by the expanded ice sheets.

Impact of variable atmospheric and oceanic form drag on simulations of Arctic sea ice

Over Arctic sea ice, pressure ridges and floe andmelt pond edges all introduce discrete obstructions to the flow of air or water past the ice and are a source of form drag. In current climate models form drag is only accounted for by tuning the air–ice and ice–ocean drag coefficients, that is, by effectively altering the roughness length in a surface drag parameterization. The existing approach of the skin drag parameter tuning is poorly constrained by observations and fails to describe correctly the physics associated with the air–ice and ocean–ice drag. Here, the authors combine recent theoretical developments to deduce the total neutral form drag coefficients from properties of the ice cover such as ice concentration, vertical extent and area of the ridges, freeboard and floe draft, and the size of floes and melt ponds. The drag coefficients are incorporated into the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and show the influence of the new drag parameterization on the motion and state of the ice cover, with the most noticeable being a depletion of sea ice over the west boundary of the Arctic Ocean and over the Beaufort Sea. The new parameterization allows the drag coefficients to be coupled to the sea ice state and therefore to evolve spatially and temporally. It is found that the range of values predicted for the drag coefficients agree with the range of values measured in several regions of the Arctic. Finally, the implications of the new form drag formulation for the spinup or spindown of the Arctic Ocean are discussed.

Coupled versus uncoupled hindcast simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation in the Year of Tropical Convection

This study investigates the impact of a full interactive ocean on daily initialised 15 day hindcasts of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), measured against a Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) atmosphere control simulation (AGCM) during a 3 month period of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC). Results indicated that the coupled configuration (CGCM) extends MJO predictability over that of the AGCM, by up to 3-5 days. Propagation is improved in the CGCM, which we partly attribute to a more realistic phase relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and convection. In addition, the CGCM demonstrates skill in representing downwelling oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves which warm SSTs along their trajectory, with the potential to feed back on the atmosphere. These results imply that an ocean model capable of simulating internal ocean waves may be required to capture the full effect of air-sea coupling for the MJO.

Creep and recovery of magnetorheological fluids: experiments and simulations

A direct comparative study on the creep-recovery behavior of conventional MR fluids is carried out using magnetorheometry and particle-level simulations. Two particle concentrations are investigated (ϕ=0.05 and 0.30) at two different magnetic field strengths (53 kA•m-1 and 173 kA•m-1) in order to match the yield stresses developed in both systems for easier comparison. Simulations are mostly started with random initial structures with some additional tests of using preassembled single chains in the low concentration case. Experimental and simulation data are in good qualitative agreement. The results demonstrate three regions in the creep curves: i) In the initial viscoelastic region, the chain-like (at ϕ=0.05) or percolated three-dimensional network (at ϕ=0.30) structures fill up the gap and the average cluster size remains constant; ii) Above a critical strain of 10 %, in the retardation region, these structures begin to break and rearrange under shear. At large enough imposed stress values, they transform into thin sheet-like or thick lamellar structures, depending on the particle concentration; iii) Finally in the case of larger strain values either the viscosity diverges (at low stress values) or reaches a constant low value (at high stress values), showing a clear bifurcation behavior. For stresses below the bifurcation point the MR fluid is capable to recover the strain by a certain fraction. However, no recovery is observed for large stress values.

Cobalt incorporation in calcite: Thermochemistry of (Ca,Co)CO3 solid solutions from density functional theory simulations

The incorporation of cobalt in mixed metal carbonates is a possible route to the immobilization of this toxic element in the environment. However, the thermodynamics of (Ca,Co)CO3 solid solutions are still unclear due to conflicting data from experiment and from the observation of natural ocurrences. We report here the results of a computer simulation study of the mixing of calcite (CaCO3) and spherocobaltite (CoCO3), using density functional theory calculations. Our simulations suggest that previously proposed thermodynamic models, based only on the range of observed compositions, significantly overestimate the solubility between the two solids and therefore underestimate the extension of the miscibility gap under ambient conditions. The enthalpy of mixing of the disordered solid solution is strongly positive and moderately asymmetric: calcium incorporation in spherocobaltite is more endothermic than cobalt incorporation in calcite. Ordering of the impurities in (0001) layers is energetically favourable with respect to the disordered solid solution at low temperatures and intermediate compositions, but the ordered phase is still unstable to demixing. We calculate the solvus and spinodal lines in the phase diagram using a sub-regular solution model, and conclude that many Ca1-xCoxCO3 mineral solid solutions (with observed compositions of up to x=0.027, and above x=0.93) are metastable with respect to phase separation. We also calculate solid/aqueous distribution coefficients to evaluate the effect of the strong non-ideality of mixing on the equilibrium with aqueous solution, showing that the thermodynamically-driven incorporation of cobalt in calcite (and of calcium in spherocobaltite) is always very low, regardless of the Co/Ca ratio of the aqueous environment.

Computer simulations of the structure of colloidal ferrofluids

The structure of a ferrofluid under the influence of an external magnetic field is expected to become anisotropic due to the alignment of the dipoles into the direction of the external field, and subsequently to the formation of particle chains due to the attractive head to tail orientations of the ferrofluid particles. Knowledge about the structure of a colloidal ferrofluid can be inferred from scattering data via the measurement of structure factors. We have used molecular-dynamics simulations to investigate the structure of both monodispersed and polydispersed ferrofluids. The results for the isotropic structure factor for monodispersed samples are similar to previous data by Camp and Patey that were obtained using an alternative Monte Carlo simulation technique, but in a different parameter region. Here we look in addition at bidispersed samples and compute the anisotropic structure factor by projecting the q vector onto the XY and XZ planes separately, when the magnetic field was applied along the z axis. We observe that the XY- plane structure factor as well as the pair distribution functions are quite different from those obtained for the XZ plane. Further, the two- dimensional structure factor patterns are investigated for both monodispersed and bidispersed samples under different conditions. In addition, we look at the scaling exponents of structure factors. Our results should be of value to interpret scattering data on ferrofluids obtained under the influence of an external field.

Structure and magnetic properties of mono- and bi-dispersed ferrofluids as revealed by simulations

Using a Langevin molecular dynamics simulation, we show that the magnetic properties of a mono- and bi-dispersed ferrofluid system depend on the volume fraction and the dipolar coupling parameter. For the bi-dispersed system, most of the chains are formed by the large particles, but the aggregation behavior of the large particles is hindered by the presence of the small particles, which are predominantly attached to the end of the particle chain. To further elucidate the microscopic fluid structure, anisotropic structure factors are calculated.

On a resurgence of management simulations and games

The past few years have seen a significant resurgence of interest in ‘management games’ and ‘management flight simulators’, one particularly active source of such work being the system dynamics community. After proposing a distinction between games and simulations, this paper provides some background to these developments by briefly describing the historical roots of the field and the fundamental ideas of the system dynamics community, which are now giving rise to ‘microworlds’. The training advantages of management simulations and games are then discussed. The paper closes with a note on the research and findings of the system dynamics field and by offering some words of warning on the perils of simulation and game use. Two scenarios for how the use of simulations and games as management education devices might develop in the future are proposed. An Appendix describes five examples of very different types of management simulations and games.

Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance--elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet

We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB–elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77� N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four “SMB lapse rates”, gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI: −0.22 to 1.33) kgm−3 a−1 for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kgm−3 a−1 for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (−0.03 to 0.23) kgm−3 a−1 in the north, and 0.07 (−0.07 to 0.59) kgm−3 a−1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically founded approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections (Edwards et al., 2014).

Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt.~Pinatubo eruption with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model

We use a stratosphere–troposphere composition–climate model with interactive sulfur chemistry and aerosol microphysics, to investigate the effect of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption on stratospheric aerosol properties. Satellite measurements indicate that shortly after the eruption, between 14 and 23 Tg of SO2 (7 to 11.5 Tg of sulfur) was present in the tropical stratosphere. Best estimates of the peak global stratospheric aerosol burden are in the range 19 to 26 Tg, or 3.7 to 6.7 Tg of sulfur assuming a composition of between 59 and 77 % H2SO4. In light of this large uncertainty range, we performed two main simulations with 10 and 20 Tg of SO2 injected into the tropical lower stratosphere. Simulated stratospheric aerosol properties through the 1991 to 1995 period are compared against a range of available satellite and in situ measurements. Stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD) and effective radius from both simulations show good qualitative agreement with the observations, with the timing of peak sAOD and decay timescale matching well with the observations in the tropics and mid-latitudes. However, injecting 20 Tg gives a factor of 2 too high stratospheric aerosol mass burden compared to the satellite data, with consequent strong high biases in simulated sAOD and surface area density, with the 10 Tg injection in much better agreement. Our model cannot explain the large fraction of the injected sulfur that the satellite-derived SO2 and aerosol burdens indicate was removed within the first few months after the eruption. We suggest that either there is an additional alternative loss pathway for the SO2 not included in our model (e.g. via accommodation into ash or ice in the volcanic cloud) or that a larger proportion of the injected sulfur was removed via cross-tropopause transport than in our simulations. We also critically evaluate the simulated evolution of the particle size distribution, comparing in detail to balloon-borne optical particle counter (OPC) measurements from Laramie, Wyoming, USA (41° N). Overall, the model captures remarkably well the complex variations in particle concentration profiles across the different OPC size channels. However, for the 19 to 27 km injection height-range used here, both runs have a modest high bias in the lowermost stratosphere for the finest particles (radii less than 250 nm), and the decay timescale is longer in the model for these particles, with a much later return to background conditions. Also, whereas the 10 Tg run compared best to the satellite measurements, a significant low bias is apparent in the coarser size channels in the volcanically perturbed lower stratosphere. Overall, our results suggest that, with appropriate calibration, aerosol microphysics models are capable of capturing the observed variation in particle size distribution in the stratosphere across both volcanically perturbed and quiescent conditions. Furthermore, additional sensitivity simulations suggest that predictions with the models are robust to uncertainties in sub-grid particle formation and nucleation rates in the stratosphere.

The evolution of the sun’s open magnetic flux: II. full solar cycle simulations

In this paper the origin and evolution of the Sun’s open magnetic flux is considered by conducting magnetic flux transport simulations over many solar cycles. The simulations include the effects of differential rotation, meridional flow and supergranular diffusion on the radial magnetic field at the surface of the Sun as new magnetic bipoles emerge and are transported poleward. In each cycle the emergence of roughly 2100 bipoles is considered. The net open flux produced by the surface distribution is calculated by constructing potential coronal fields with a source surface from the surface distribution at regular intervals. In the simulations the net open magnetic flux closely follows the total dipole component at the source surface and evolves independently from the surface flux. The behaviour of the open flux is highly dependent on meridional flow and many observed features are reproduced by the model. However, when meridional flow is present at observed values the maximum value of the open flux occurs at cycle minimum when the polar caps it helps produce are the strongest. This is inconsistent with observations by Lockwood, Stamper and Wild (1999) and Wang, Sheeley, and Lean (2000) who find the open flux peaking 1–2 years after cycle maximum. Only in unrealistic simulations where meridional flow is much smaller than diffusion does a maximum in open flux consistent with observations occur. It is therefore deduced that there is no realistic parameter range of the flux transport variables that can produce the correct magnitude variation in open flux under the present approximations. As a result the present standard model does not contain the correct physics to describe the evolution of the Sun’s open magnetic flux over an entire solar cycle. Future possible improvements in modeling are suggested.