Estimation following selection of the largest of two normal means

This paper considers the problem of estimation when one of a number of populations, assumed normal with known common variance, is selected on the basis of it having the largest observed mean. Conditional on selection of the population, the observed mean is a biased estimate of the true mean. This problem arises in the analysis of clinical trials in which selection is made between a number of experimental treatments that are compared with each other either with or without an additional control treatment. Attempts to obtain approximately unbiased estimates in this setting have been proposed by Shen [2001. An improved method of evaluating drug effect in a multiple dose clinical trial. Statist. Medicine 20, 1913–1929] and Stallard and Todd [2005. Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 135, 402–419]. This paper explores the problem in the simple setting in which two experimental treatments are compared in a single analysis. It is shown that in this case the estimate of Stallard and Todd is the maximum-likelihood estimate (m.l.e.), and this is compared with the estimate proposed by Shen. In particular, it is shown that the m.l.e. has infinite expectation whatever the true value of the mean being estimated. We show that there is no conditionally unbiased estimator, and propose a new family of approximately conditionally unbiased estimators, comparing these with the estimators suggested by Shen.

Community based ecotourism as a panacea for protected areas: the use of common property theory in its analysis and development

Tourism is the worlds largest employer, accounting for 10% of jobs worldwide (WTO, 1999). There are over 30,000 protected areas around the world, covering about 10% of the land surface(IUCN, 2002). Protected area management is moving towards a more integrated form of management, which recognises the social and economic needs of the worlds finest areas and seeks to provide long term income streams and support social cohesion through active but sustainable use of resources. Ecotourism - 'responsible travel to natural areas that conserves the environment and improves the well- being of local people' (The Ecotourism Society, 1991) - is often cited as a panacea for incorporating the principles of sustainable development in protected area management. However, few examples exist worldwide to substantiate this claim. In reality, ecotourism struggles to provide social and economic empowerment locally and fails to secure proper protection of the local and global environment. Current analysis of ecotourism provides a useful checklist of interconnected principles for more successful initiatives, but no overall framework of analysis or theory. This paper argues that applying common property theory to the application of ecotourism can help to establish more rigorous, multi-layered analysis that identifies the institutional demands of community based ecotourism (CBE). The paper draws on existing literature on ecotourism and several new case studies from developed and developing countries around the world. It focuses on the governance of CBE initiatives, particularly the interaction between local stakeholders and government and the role that third party non-governmental organisations can play in brokering appropriate institutional arrangements. The paper concludes by offering future research directions."

Leaf trapping and retention of particles by holm oak and other common tree species in Mediterranean urban environments

Holm oak (Quercus ilex), a widespread urban street tree in the Mediterranean region, is widely used as biomonitor of persistent atmospheric pollutants, especially particulate-bound metals. By using lab- and field-based experimental approaches, we compared the leaf-level capacity for particles’ capture and retention between Q. ilex and other common Mediterranean urban trees: Quercus cerris, Platanus × hispanica, Tilia cordata and Olea europaea. All applied methods were effective in quantifying particulate capture and retention, although not univocal in ranking species performances. Distinctive morphological features of leaves led to differences in species’ ability to trap and retain particles of different size classes and to accumulate metals after exposure to traffic in an urban street. Overall, P. × hispanica and T. cordata showed the largest capture potential per unit leaf area for most model particles (Na+ and powder particles), and street-level Cu and Pb, while Q. ilex acted intermediately. After wash-off experiments, P. × hispanica leaves had the greatest retention capacity among the tested species and O. europaea the lowest. We concluded that the Platanus planting could be considered in Mediterranean urban environments due to its efficiency in accumulating and retaining airborne particulates; however, with atmospheric pollution being typically higher in winter, the evergreen Q. ilex represents a better year-round choice to mitigate the impact of airborne particulate pollutants.

Common black coatings - reflectance and ageing characteristics in the 0.32-14.3 mu m wavelength range

The diffuse and regular reflectances of five optically absorbing coatings frequently used in optical systems, were measured over the 0.32-14.3 mu m wavelength range, before and after exposure to heat and intense optical radiation. The measured coatings included Nextel Velvet Black, an anodised coating and NPL Super Black. The anodised coating exhibited substantial variations in its diffuse and regular reflectance values after thermal and simulated solar ageing. Solar and thermal ageing of the Nextel Velvet Black resulted in increases of its reflectance. However, thermal ageing tended to decrease the reflectance of the other paint samples examined. Thermal and solar ageing of the NPL Super Black resulted in only minor changes in its reflectance characteristics. All measurements are traceable to the UK National Standards.

The accuracy of Doppler radar wind retrievals using insects as targets

Insect returns from the UK's Doppler weather radars were collected in the summers of 2007 and 2008, to ascertain their usefulness in providing information about boundary layer winds. Such observations could be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to improve forecasts of convective showers before precipitation begins. Significant numbers of insect returns were observed during daylight hours on a number of days through this period, when they were detected at up to 30 km range from the radars, and up to 2 km above sea level. The range of detectable insect returns was found to vary with time of year and temperature. There was also a very weak correlation with wind speed and direction. Use of a dual-polarized radar revealed that the insects did not orient themselves at random, but showed distinct evidence of common orientation on several days, sometimes at an angle to their direction of travel. Observation minus model background residuals of wind profiles showed greater bias and standard deviation than that of other wind measurement types, which may be due to the insects' headings/airspeeds and to imperfect data extraction. The method used here, similar to the Met Office's procedure for extracting precipitation returns, requires further development as clutter contamination remained one of the largest error contributors. Wind observations derived from the insect returns would then be useful for data assimilation applications.

The Universal Common Good: Faith-Based Partnerships and Sustainable Development

Partnership is increasingly espoused as the best relationship between members of the sustainable development aid chain, and implies a respect for the position of all and a desire to avoid a situation where one group dominates another. It also implies a form of relationship that is not just 'better' for the sake of it but that is more able to help achieve sustainable development. However, given the inevitable inequalities in power between donors that have the resources and field partners that do not it can be hard to put this ideal into practice. This paper explores the function of partnership within a group of closely related institutions that comprise the Catholic Church development chain. The research focussed on three Catholic Church based donors (one from the USA and two from Europe) and their partners in Abuja Ecclesiastical Province, Nigeria. Relationships between and within various strata of the Church in Nigeria were also examined. Relationships were 'patchy' at all levels. One of the donors had a significant operational presence in Nigeria and this was regarded by some respondents as a parallel structure that seriously undermined local bodies. However, while problems existed, there was a sense of inter-dependence arising from a shared sense of values and Catholic Social Teaching, which allowed partners to work through their stresses and conflicts. It is the innate sustainability of the aid chain itself founded upon a set of shared values that provided the space and time for problems to be addressed. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Dynamic load balancing for the distributed mining of molecular structures

In molecular biology, it is often desirable to find common properties in large numbers of drug candidates. One family of methods stems from the data mining community, where algorithms to find frequent graphs have received increasing attention over the past years. However, the computational complexity of the underlying problem and the large amount of data to be explored essentially render sequential algorithms useless. In this paper, we present a distributed approach to the frequent subgraph mining problem to discover interesting patterns in molecular compounds. This problem is characterized by a highly irregular search tree, whereby no reliable workload prediction is available. We describe the three main aspects of the proposed distributed algorithm, namely, a dynamic partitioning of the search space, a distribution process based on a peer-to-peer communication framework, and a novel receiverinitiated load balancing algorithm. The effectiveness of the distributed method has been evaluated on the well-known National Cancer Institute’s HIV-screening data set, where we were able to show close-to linear speedup in a network of workstations. The proposed approach also allows for dynamic resource aggregation in a non dedicated computational environment. These features make it suitable for large-scale, multi-domain, heterogeneous environments, such as computational grids.

Is 15 per cent very common? Informing people about the risks of medication side effects

Objectives - To assess the general public's interpretation of the verbal descriptors for side effect frequency recommended for use in medicine information leaflets by a European Union (EU) guideline, and to examine the extent to which differences in interpretation affect people's perception of risk and their judgments of intention to comply with the prescribed treatment. Method - Two studies used a controlled empirical methodology in which people were presented with a hypothetical, but realistic, scenario about visiting their general practitioner and being prescribed medication. They were given an explanation that focused on the side effects of the medicine, together with information about the probability of occurrence using either numerical percentages or the corresponding EU verbal descriptors. Interpretation of the descriptors was assessed. In study 2, participants were also required to make various judgments, including risk to health and intention to comply. Key findings - In both studies, use of the EU recommended descriptors led to significant overestimations of the likelihood of particular side effects occurring. Study 2 further showed that the "overestimation" resulted in significantly increased ratings of perceived severity of side effects and risk to health, as well as significantly reduced ratings of intention to comply, compared with those for people who received the probability information in numerical form. Conclusion - While it is recognised that the current findings require replication in a clinical setting, the European and national authorities should suspend the use of the EU recommended terms until further research is available to allow the use of an evidence-based approach.

Recategorization and subgroup identification: predicting and preventing threats from common ingroups

Much work has supported the idea that recategorization of ingroups and outgroups into a superordinate category can have beneficial effects for intergroup relations. Recently, however, increases in bias following recategorization have been observed in some contexts. It is argued that such unwanted consequences of recategorization will only be apparent for perceivers who are highly committed to their ingroup subgroups. In Experiments 1 to 3, the authors observed, on both explicit and implicit measures, that an increase in bias following recategorization occurred only for high subgroup identifiers. In Experiment 4, it was found that maintaining the salience of subgroups within a recategorized superordinate group averted this increase in bias for high identifiers and led overall to the lowest levels of bias. These findings are discussed in the context of recent work on the Common Ingroup Identity Model.

Platelet-mediated metabolism of the common dietary flavonoid, quercetin.

BACKGROUND: Flavonoid metabolites remain in blood for periods of time potentially long enough to allow interactions with cellular components of this tissue. It is well-established that flavonoids are metabolised within the intestine and liver into methylated, sulphated and glucuronidated counterparts, which inhibit platelet function. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We demonstrate evidence suggesting platelets which contain metabolic enzymes, as an alternative location for flavonoid metabolism. Quercetin and a plasma metabolite of this compound, 4'-O-methyl quercetin (tamarixetin) were shown to gain access to the cytosolic compartment of platelets, using confocal microscopy. High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and mass spectrometry (MS) showed that quercetin was transformed into a compound with a mass identical to tamarixetin, suggesting that the flavonoid was methylated by catechol-O-methyl transferase (COMT) within platelets. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Platelets potentially mediate a third phase of flavonoid metabolism, which may impact on the regulation of the function of these cells by metabolites of these dietary compounds.