The extent to which potential benefits to EU farmers of adopting transgenic crops are reduced by cost of compliance with coexistence regulations

This article forecasts the extent to which the potential benefits of adopting transgenic crops may be reduced by costs of compliance with coexistence regulations applicable in various member states of the EU. A dynamic economic model is described and used to calculate the potential yield and gross margin of a set of crops grown in a selection of typical rotation scenarios. The model simulates varying levels of pest, weed, and drought pressures, with associated management strategies regarding pesticide and herbicide application, and irrigation. We report on the initial use of the model to calculate the net reduction in gross margin attributable to coexistence costs for insect-resistant (IR) and herbicide-tolerant (HT) maize grown continuously or in a rotation, HT soya grown in a rotation, HT oilseed rape grown in a rotation, and HT sugarbeet grown in a rotation. Conclusions are drawn about conditions favoring inclusion of a transgenic crop in a crop rotation, having regard to farmers’ attitude toward risk.

When we eat, which bacteria should we be feeding?

Diet therapy utilizing probiotics and prebiotics may help treat many common gastrointestinal complaints. From birth to about 2 years of age the human digestive tract changes from sterile to a complex ecosystem with at least 500 bacterial species, most of these are benign and even necessary, however, pathogenic species also colonize the digestive tract. The idea is that prebiotics and probiotics can be used to displace and neutralise these pathogens.

Patients' attitudes towards, and information needs in relation to, nurse prescribing in rheumatology

Aims and objectives: To assess the level of confidence that rheumatology patients would have in nurse prescribing, the effects on likely adherence and particular concerns that these patients have. In addition, given that information provision has been cited as a potential benefit of nurse prescribing, the present study assessed the extent to which these patients would want an explanation for the selected medicine, as well as which types of information should be included in such an explanation. Background: Nurse prescribing has been successfully implemented in the UK in several healthcare settings. Existing research has not addressed the effects on patients' confidence and likely adherence, nor have patients' information needs been established. However, we know that inadequate medicines information provision by health professionals is one of the largest causes of patient dissatisfaction. Methods: Fifty-four patients taking disease-modifying drugs for inflammatory joint disease attending a specialist rheumatology clinic self-completed a written questionnaire. Results: Patients indicated a relatively high level of confidence in nurse prescribing and stated that they would be very likely to take the selected medication. The level of concern was relatively low and the majority of concerns raised did not relate to the nurse's status. Strong support was expressed for the nurse providing an explanation for medicine choice. Conclusion: This research provides support for the prescription of medicines by nurses working in the area of rheumatology, the importance of nurses providing a full explanation about the selected medicines they prescribe for these patients and some indication as to which categories of information should be included. Relevance to clinical practice: Rheumatology patients who have not yet experienced nurse prescribing are, in general, positive about nurses adopting this role. It is important that nurses provide appropriate information about the prescribed medicines, in a form that can be understood.

Household attributes and the future demand for retirement housing

Ageing populations provoke the question of how much bespoke housing should be provided for the elderly. Older people are generally reluctant to move but as they age health circumstances may encourage moves into specialised accommodation. This paper reports an exercise in estimating the future demand for specialised independent living housing and the extent to which that demand will be for owner occupied accommodation or renting, using data for England. The approach is based on a behavioral model related to health and housing issues. The forecasts indicate a substantial increase in demand, growing at a faster rate than the population as a whole. If supply does not rise to meet these demands, serious problems arise in the quality of life of, and cost of caring for, older people; with implications for health care and social services.

A multinomial model of applying recognition to judge between multiple alternatives

Proponents of the “fast and frugal” approach to decision-making suggest that inferential judgments are best made on the basis of limited information. For example, if only one of two cities is recognized and the task is to judge which city has the larger population, the recognition heuristic states that the recognized city should be selected. In preference choices with >2 options, it is also standard to assume that a “consideration set”, based upon some simple criterion, is established to reduce the options available. A multinomial processing tree model is outlined which provides the basis for estimating the extent to which recognition is used as a criterion in establishing a consideration set for inferential judgments.

Inferring the biggest and best: a measurement model for applying recognition to evoke consideration sets and judge between multiple alternatives

It has long been supposed that preference judgments between sets of to-be-considered possibilities are made by means of initially winnowing down the most promising-looking alternatives to form smaller “consideration sets” (Howard, 1963; Wright & Barbour, 1977). In preference choices with >2 options, it is standard to assume that a “consideration set”, based upon some simple criterion, is established to reduce the options available. Inferential judgments, in contrast, have more frequently been investigated in situations in which only two possibilities need to be considered (e.g., which of these two cities is the larger?) Proponents of the “fast and frugal” approach to decision-making suggest that such judgments are also made on the basis of limited, simple criteria. For example, if only one of two cities is recognized and the task is to judge which city has the larger population, the recognition heuristic states that the recognized city should be selected. A multinomial processing tree model is outlined which provides the basis for estimating the extent to which recognition is used as a criterion in establishing a consideration set for inferential judgments between three possible options.

Wanted dead and alive : to what extent are hunting and protection of an endangered species compatible?

Cash-constrained wildlife departments must increasingly look towards revenue-generating activities such as sales of permits for hunting common species combined with fines for those caught with rare species. Pertinent to west Africa, an optimal enforcement model demonstrates the conditions under which a department with neither external budget nor tourism revenue can fully protect a rare species, and the impact on other species and local hunters' livelihoods. The department's effectiveness is shown to depend critically on the extent to which hunters can discriminate among different species. Improvements in hunting technology selectivity are therefore a substitute for increased enforcement spending.

Convectively coupled equatorial waves: A new methodology for identifying wave structures in observational data

Convectively coupled equatorial waves are fundamental components of the interaction between the physics and dynamics of the tropical atmosphere. A new methodology, which isolates individual equatorial wave modes, has been developed and applied to observational data. The methodology assumes that the horizontal structures given by equatorial wave theory can be used to project upper- and lower-tropospheric data onto equatorial wave modes. The dynamical fields are first separated into eastward- and westward-moving components with a specified domain of frequency–zonal wavenumber. Each of the components for each field is then projected onto the different equatorial modes using the y structures of these modes given by the theory. The latitudinal scale yo of the modes is predetermined by data to fit the equatorial trapping in a suitable latitude belt y = ±Y. The extent to which the different dynamical fields are consistent with one another in their depiction of each equatorial wave structure determines the confidence in the reality of that structure. Comparison of the analyzed modes with the eastward- and westward-moving components in the convection field enables the identification of the dynamical structure and nature of convectively coupled equatorial waves. In a case study, the methodology is applied to two independent data sources, ECMWF Reanalysis and satellite-observed window brightness temperature (Tb) data for the summer of 1992. Various convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin, mixed Rossby–gravity, and Rossby waves have been detected. The results indicate a robust consistency between the two independent data sources. Different vertical structures for different wave modes and a significant Doppler shifting effect of the background zonal winds on wave structures are found and discussed. It is found that in addition to low-level convergence, anomalous fluxes induced by strong equatorial zonal winds associated with equatorial waves are important for inducing equatorial convection. There is evidence that equatorial convection associated with Rossby waves leads to a change in structure involving a horizontal structure similar to that of a Kelvin wave moving westward with it. The vertical structure may also be radically changed. The analysis method should make a very powerful diagnostic tool for investigating convectively coupled equatorial waves and the interaction of equatorial dynamics and physics in the real atmosphere. The results from application of the analysis method for a reanalysis dataset should provide a benchmark against which model studies can be compared.

A decade of decentralisation? Assessing the role of the government offices for the English regions

The Government Offices for the English regions were established in 1994 to coordinate the regional activities of three central government departments. A decade on, regional government in England is greatly expanded, and two other institutions of regional governance, the Regional Development Agencies and the Regional Assemblies, have also been created. In 2002 the Labour government proposed that this 'triad' of regional governance should be further reformed and strengthened, in some places being brought to democratic account. In this paper, we argue that academic research on the English regions has generally focused on the Regional Development Agencies and to a lesser extent the Regional Assemblies, to the exclusion of the Government Offices. This focus has led some to overstate the extent to which regional government represents the real decentralisation of power. Focusing on the role of the Government Offices, we argue that central government retains a great deal of power over the 'triad' institutions, which in their current form may be unable to challenge the structure of power in the English state.

Failure to regulate: counterproductive recruitment of top-down prefrontal-subcortical circuitry in major depression

Although depressed mood is a normal occurrence in response to adversity in all individuals, what distinguishes those who are vulnerable to major depressive disorder (MDD) is their inability to effectively regulate negative mood when it arises. Investigating the neural underpinnings of adaptive emotion regulation and the extent to which such processes are compromised in MDD may be helpful in understanding the pathophysiology of depression. We report results from a functional magnetic resonance imaging study demonstrating left-lateralized activation in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) when downregulating negative affect in nondepressed individuals, whereas depressed individuals showed bilateral PFC activation. Furthermore, during an effortful affective reappraisal task, nondepressed individuals showed an inverse relationship between activation in left ventrolateral PFC and the amygdala that is mediated by the ventromedial PFC (VMPFC). No such relationship was found for depressed individuals, who instead show a positive association between VMPFC and amygdala. Pupil dilation data suggest that those depressed patients who expend more effort to reappraise negative stimuli are characterized by accentuated activation in the amygdala, insula, and thalamus, whereas nondepressed individuals exhibit the opposite pattern. These findings indicate that a key feature underlying the pathophysiology of major depression is the counterproductive engagement of right prefrontal cortex and the lack of engagement of left lateral-ventromedial prefrontal circuitry important for the downregulation of amygdala responses to negative stimuli.

Is 15 per cent very common? Informing people about the risks of medication side effects

Objectives - To assess the general public's interpretation of the verbal descriptors for side effect frequency recommended for use in medicine information leaflets by a European Union (EU) guideline, and to examine the extent to which differences in interpretation affect people's perception of risk and their judgments of intention to comply with the prescribed treatment. Method - Two studies used a controlled empirical methodology in which people were presented with a hypothetical, but realistic, scenario about visiting their general practitioner and being prescribed medication. They were given an explanation that focused on the side effects of the medicine, together with information about the probability of occurrence using either numerical percentages or the corresponding EU verbal descriptors. Interpretation of the descriptors was assessed. In study 2, participants were also required to make various judgments, including risk to health and intention to comply. Key findings - In both studies, use of the EU recommended descriptors led to significant overestimations of the likelihood of particular side effects occurring. Study 2 further showed that the "overestimation" resulted in significantly increased ratings of perceived severity of side effects and risk to health, as well as significantly reduced ratings of intention to comply, compared with those for people who received the probability information in numerical form. Conclusion - While it is recognised that the current findings require replication in a clinical setting, the European and national authorities should suspend the use of the EU recommended terms until further research is available to allow the use of an evidence-based approach.

Too much information? : Drama teachers’ perceptions of the value of subject knowledge

This paper reports on research into what drama teachers consider they really need to know as drama specialists. In the first instance the very concept of knowledge is discussed as it pertains to education in the arts as is the current situation in England regarding the extent to which new drama teachers’ subject specialist knowledge has been formally accredited and what the implications of this may be to an evolving curriculum. The research itself initially involved using a questionnaire to investigate the way in which drama teachers prioritised different aspects of professional knowledge. Results of this survey were deemed surprising enough to warrant further investigation through the use of interviews and a multiple-sorting exercise which revealed why the participants prioritised in the way they did. Informed by the work of Bourdieu, Foucault and Kelly, a model is proposed which may help explain the tensions experienced by drama teachers as they try to balance and prioritise different aspects of professional knowledge.

The use of bootstrapped Malmquist indices to reassess productivity change findings: an application to a sample of Polish farms

This article assesses the extent to which sampling variation affects findings about Malmquist productivity change derived using data envelopment analysis (DEA), in the first stage by calculating productivity indices and in the second stage by investigating the farm-specific change in productivity. Confidence intervals for Malmquist indices are constructed using Simar and Wilson's (1999) bootstrapping procedure. The main contribution of this article is to account in the second stage for the information in the second stage provided by the first-stage bootstrap. The DEA SEs of the Malmquist indices given by bootstrapping are employed in an innovative heteroscedastic panel regression, using a maximum likelihood procedure. The application is to a sample of 250 Polish farms over the period 1996 to 2000. The confidence intervals' results suggest that the second half of 1990s for Polish farms was characterized not so much by productivity regress but rather by stagnation. As for the determinants of farm productivity change, we find that the integration of the DEA SEs in the second-stage regression is significant in explaining a proportion of the variance in the error term. Although our heteroscedastic regression results differ with those from the standard OLS, in terms of significance and sign, they are consistent with theory and previous research.

Curbing agricultural exceptionalism: The EU's response to external challenge

From 1948 to 1994, the agricultural sector was afforded special treatment in the GATT. We analyse the extent to which this agricultural exceptionalism was curbed as a result of the GATT Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, discuss why it was curbed and finally explore the implication of this for EU policy making. We argue that, in particular, two major changes in GATT institutions brought about restrictions on agricultural exceptionalism. First, the Uruguay Round was a 'single undertaking' in which progress on other dossiers was contingent upon an outcome on agriculture. The EU had keenly supported this new decision rule in the GATT. Within the EU this led to the MacSharry reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 1992, paving the way for a trade agreement on agriculture within the GATT. Second, under the new quasi-judicial dispute settlement procedure, countries are expected to bring their policies into conformity with WTO rules or face retaliatory trade sanctions. This has brought about a greater willingness on the part of the EU to submit its farm policy to WTO disciplines.

Consumers' willingness-to-pay for organic conversion-grade food: Evidence from five EU countries

In recent years, in overall value, the EU has become a net importer of organic food to supply increasing demand. Financial support for farmers during the conversion period has been made to help expand organic production as this was seen as a barrier to conversion. Meanwhile, farmers have been marketing products produced in this conversion period and labelled as such, the extent to which is described here for the UK, Portugal, Denmark, Ireland and Italy. Consumers' attitudes towards, and willingness-to-pay for, conversion-grade food in these countries is examined. It was found that consumers would be prepared to pay a premium for conversion-grade produce of around half the premium for organic produce with vegetables attracting a higher premium than meat. Finally, the potential of policies for marketing conversion-grade products to encourage more conversion is examined, together with barriers to achieving this. It is concluded that barriers to marketing such products, particularly from retailers, will be formidable. Thus, alternative policies are suggested. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.