Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data

Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE), set up by the 10th Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002–2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE) as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process.

Once upon a time, there was a fabulous funambulist: What children learn about the “high-level” vocabulary they encounter while listening to stories

Previous research has shown that listening to stories supports vocabulary growth in preschool and school-aged children and that lexical entries for even very difficult or rare words can be established if these are defined when they are first introduced. However, little is known about the nature of the lexical representations children form for the words they encounter while listening to stories, or whether these are sufficiently robust to support the child’s own use of such ‘high-level’ vocabulary. This study explored these questions by administering multiple assessments of children’s knowledge about a set of newly-acquired vocabulary. Four- and 6-year-old children were introduced to nine difficult new words (including nouns, verbs and adjectives) through three exposures to a story read by their class teacher. The story included a definition of each new word at its first encounter. Learning of the target vocabulary was assessed by means of two tests of semantic understanding – a forced choice picture-selection task and a definition production task – and a grammaticality judgment task, which asked children to choose between a syntactically-appropriate and syntactically-inappropriate usage of the word. Children in both age groups selected the correct pictorial representation and provided an appropriate definition for the target words in all three word classes significantly more often than they did for a matched set of non-exposed control words. However, only the older group was able to identify the syntactically-appropriate sentence frames in the grammaticality judgment task. Further analyses elucidate some of the components of the lexical representations children lay down when they hear difficult new vocabulary in stories and how different tests of word knowledge might overlap in their assessment of these components.

Orographic Enhancement of Precipitation inside Hurricane Dean

On 17 August 2007, the center of Hurricane Dean passed within 92 km of the mountainous island of Dominica in the West Indies. Despite its distance from the island and its category 1–2 state, Dean brought significant total precipitation exceeding 500 mm and caused numerous landslides. Four rain gauges, a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image, and 5-min radar scans from Guadeloupe and Martinique are used to determine the storm’s structure and the mountains’ effect on precipitation. The encounter is best described in three phases: (i) an east-northeast dry flow with three isolated drifting cells; (ii) a brief passage of the narrow outer rainband; and (iii) an extended period with south-southeast airflow in a nearly stationary spiral rainband. In this final phase, from 1100 to 2400 UTC, heavy rainfall from the stationary rainband was doubled by orographic enhancement. This enhancement pushed the sloping soils past the landslide threshold. The enhancement was caused by a modified seeder–feeder accretion mechanism that created a “dipole” pattern of precipitation, including a dry zone over the ocean in the lee. In contrast to normal trade-wind conditions, no terrain triggering of convection was identified in the hurricane environment.

Understanding the dimensional change card sort: Perspectives from task success and failure

Four experiments consider some of the circumstances under which children follow two different rule pairs when sorting cards. Previous research has repeatedly found that 3-year-olds encounter substantial difficulties implementing the second of two conflicting rule sets, despite their knowledge of these rules. One interpretation of this phenomenon [Cognitive Complexity and Control (CCC) theory] is that 3-year-olds have problems establishing an appropriate hierarchical ordering for rules. The present data suggest an alternative account of children's card sorting behaviour, according to which the cognitive salience of test card features may be more important than inflexibility with respect to rule representation.

On the evolution of the solar wind between 1 and 5 AU at the time of the Cassini Jupiter flyby: Multispacecraft observations of interplanetary coronal mass ejections including the formation of a merged interaction region

The Cassini flyby of Jupiter occurred at a time near solar maximum. Consequently, the pre-Jupiter data set reveals clear and numerous transient perturbations to the Parker Spiral solar wind structure. Limited plasma data are available at Cassini for this period due to pointing restrictions imposed on the instrument. This renders the identification of the nature of such structures ambiguous, as determinations based on the magnetic field data alone are unreliable. However, a fortuitous alignment of the planets during this encounter allowed us to trace these structures back to those observed previously by the Wind spacecraft near the Earth. Of the phenomena that we are satisfactorily able to trace back to their manifestation at 1 AU, two are identified as being due to interplanetary coronal mass ejections. One event at Cassini is shown to be a merged interaction region, which is formed from the compression of a magnetic cloud by two anomalously fast solar wind streams. The flux-rope structure associated with this magnetic cloud is not as apparent at Cassini and has most likely been compressed and deformed. Confirmation of the validity of the ballistic projections used here is provided by results obtained from a one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic projection of solar wind parameters measured upstream near the Earth. It is found that when the Earth and Cassini are within a few tens of degrees in heliospheric longitude, the results of this one-dimensional model predict the actual conditions measured at 5 AU to an impressive degree. Finally, the validity of the use of such one-dimensional projections in obtaining quasi-solar wind parameters at the outer planets is discussed.

"Racism in a Melting Pot...?" Trinidadian mid-life transnational migrants' views on race and colour-class on return to their homes of descent

This paper deals with second-generation, one-and-a-half generation and ‘‘prolonged sojourner” Trinidadian transnational migrants, who have decided to ‘return’ to the birthplace of their parents. Based on 40 in-depth interviews, the paper considers both the positive and critical things that these youthful transnational migrants report about returning to, and living in, this multi-ethnic plural society and the salience of racial and colour-class stratification as part of their return migration experiences. Our qualitative analysis is based on the narratives provided by these youthful returnees, as relayed ‘‘in their own words”, presenting critical reflections on racism, racial identities and experiences as transnational Trinidadians. It is clear that it is contexts such as contemporary working environments, family and community that act as the reference points for the adaptation ‘‘back home” of this strongly middle-class cohort. We accordingly encounter a diverse, sometimes contesting set of racial issues that emerge as salient concerns for these returnees. The consensus is that matters racial remain as formidable legacies in the hierarchical stratification of Trinidadian society for a sizeable number. Many of our respondents reported the positive aspects of racial affirmation on return. But for another sub-set, the fact that multi-ethnic and multi-cultural mixing are proudly embraced in Trinidad meant that it was felt that return experiences were not overly hindered, or blighted by obstacles of race and colour-class. For these returnees, Trinidad and Tobago is seen as representing a 21st century ‘‘Melting Pot”. But for others the continued existence of racial divisions within society – between ethnic groups and among those of different skin shades – was lamented. In the views of these respondents, too much racial power is still ascribed to ‘near-whiteness’. But for the most part, the returnees felt that where race played a part in their new lives, this generally served to advantage them. However, although the situation in Trinidad appears to have been moderated by assumptions that it remains a racial ‘Melting Pot’, the analysis strongly suggests that the colour-class system of stratification is still playing an essential role, along with racial stereotyping in society at large.

Cusp observations during a sequence of fast IMF B-Z reversals

In recent years, a large number of papers have reported the response of the cusp to solar wind variations under conditions of northward or southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Z-component (BZ). These studies have shown the importance of both temporal and spatial factors in determining the extent and morphology of the cusp and the changes in its location, connected to variations in the reconnection geometry. Here we present a comparative study of the cusp, focusing on an interval characterised by a series of rapid reversals in the BZ-dominated IMF, based on observations from space-borne and ground-based instrumentation. During this interval, from 08:00 to 12:00 UT on 12 February 2003, the IMF BZ component underwent four reversals, remaining for around 30 min in each orientation. The Cluster spacecraft were, at the time, on an outbound trajectory through the Northern Hemisphere magnetosphere, whilst the mainland VHF and Svalbard (ESR) radars of the EISCAT facility were operating in support of the Cluster mission. Both Cluster and the EISCAT were, on occasion during the interval, observing the cusp region. The series of IMF reversal resulted in a sequence of poleward and equatorward motions of the cusp; consequently Cluster crossed the high altitude cusp twice before finally exiting the dayside magnetopause, both times under conditions of northward IMF BZ. The first magnetospheric cusp encounter, by all four Cluster spacecraft, showed reverse ion dispersion typical of lobe reconnection; subsequently, Cluster spacecraft 1 and 3 (only) crossed the cusp for a second time. We suggest that, during this second cusp crossing, these two spacecraft were likely to have been on newly closed field lines, which were first reconnected (opened) at low latitudes and later reconnected again (re-closed) poleward of the northern cusp.

A maternal influence on the conditioning to plant cues of Aphidius colemani Viereck, parasitizing the aphid Myzus persicae Sulzer

The offspring of parasitoids, Aphidius colemani Viereck, reared on Brussels sprouts and emerging from Myzus persicae Sulzer on a fully defined artificial diet, show no preferences in a four-way olfactometer, either for the odour of the diet, the odour of Brussels sprouts, or the odour of two other crucifers (cabbage and Chinese cabbage). A similar lack of odour preferences is shown when the host aphids are exposed for parasitization (for 48 h) on cabbage, Chinese cabbage or wheat. However, if parasitization occurs on Brussels sprouts, a weak but statistically highly significant response to Brussels sprout odour is observed. Although as many as 30-35% of the parasitoids show no response to any odour, another 35% respond positively to the odour of Brussels sprout compared with responses to the odours of cabbage, Chinese cabbage or wheat of only approximately 10%. An analagous result is obtained when the parent parasitoids are reared on cabbage. In this case, significant positive responses of their offspring to cabbage odour occur only if the 48-h parasitization has occurred also on cabbage. However, with parasitoids from Brussels sprouts parasitizing the aphids for 48 h also on Brussels sprouts, the offspring subsequently emerging from pupae excised from the mummies show no preference for Brussels sprout odour. Thus, although the Brussels sprout cue had been experienced early in the development of the parasitoids, they only become conditioned to it when emerging from the mummy. Both male and female parasitoids respond very similarly in all experiments. It is proposed that the chemical cue (probably glucosinolates in these experiments) is most likely in the silk surrounding the parasitoid pupa, and that the mother may leave the chemical in or around the egg at oviposition, inducing chemical defences in her offspring to the secondary plant compounds that the offspring are likely to encounter.

Tolerance traits and the stability of mutualism

Identifying factors which allow the evolution and persistence of cooperative interactions between species is a fundamental issue in evolutionary ecology. Various hypotheses have been suggested which generally focus on mechanisms that allow cooperative genotypes in different species to maintain interactions over space and time. Here, we emphasise the fact that even within mutualisms (interactions with net positive fitness effects for both partners), there may still be inherent costs, such as the occasional predation by ants upon aphids. Individuals engaged in mutualisms benefit from minimising these costs as long as it is not at the expense of breaking the interspecific interaction, which offers a net positive benefit. The most common and obvious defence traits to minimise interspecific interaction costs are resistance traits, which act to reduce encounter rate between two organisms. Tolerance traits, in contrast, minimise fitness costs to the actor, but without reducing encounter rate. Given that, by definition, it is beneficial to remain in mutualistic interactions, the only viable traits to minimise costs are tolerance-based 'defence' strategies. Thus, we propose that tolerance traits are an important factor promoting stability in mutualisms. Furthermore, because resistance traits tend to propagate coevolutionary arms races between antagonists, whilst tolerance traits do not, we also suggest that tolerance-based defence strategies may be important in facilitating the transition from antagonistic interactions into mutualisms. For example, the mutualism between ants and aphids has been suggested to have evolved from parasitism. We describe how phenotypic plasticity in honeydew production may be a tolerance trait that has prevented escalation into an antagonistic arms race and instead led to mutualistic coevolution.

Plant chemistry and aphid parasitoids (Hymenoptera : Braconidae): Imprinting and memory

Emerging parasitoids of aphids encounter secondary plant chemistry from cues left by the mother parasitoid at oviposition and from the plant-feeding of the host aphid. In practice, however, it is secondary plant cheinistry oil the Surface of the aphid mummy which influences parasitoid olfactory behaviour. Offspring of Aphidius colemani reared oil Myzus persicae on artificial diet did no distinguish between the odours of bean and cabbage, but showed a clear preference for cabbage odour if sinigrin had been painted oil the back of the mummy. Similarly Aphidius rhopalosiphi reared on Metopolophium dirhodum on wheat preferred the odour of wheat plants grown near tomato plants to odour of wheat alone if the wheat plants oil which they had been reared had been exposed to the volatiles of nearby tomato plants. Aphidius rhopalosiphi reared on M dirhodum, and removed from the mummy before emergence, showed a preference for the odour of a different wheat cultivar if they had contacted a mummy from that cultivar, and similar results were obtained with A. colemani naturally emerged from M. persicae mummies. Aphidius colemani emerged from mummies oil one crucifer were allowed to contact in sequence (for 45 min each) mummies from two different crucifers. The mumber of attacks made in 10 min oil M. persicae was always significantly higher when aphids were feeding oil the same plant as the origin of the last MUMMY offered, or oil the second plant if aphids feeding on the third plant were not included. Chilling emerged A. colemani for 24 h at 5 degrees C appeared to erase the imprint of secondary plant chemistry, and they no longer showed host plant odour preferences in the olfactometer. When the parasitoids were chilled after three Successive mummy experiences, memory of the last experience appeared at least temporarily erased and preference was then shown for the chemistry of the second experience.