Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation

The evaluation of forecast performance plays a central role both in the interpretation and use of forecast systems and in their development. Different evaluation measures (scores) are available, often quantifying different characteristics of forecast performance. The properties of several proper scores for probabilistic forecast evaluation are contrasted and then used to interpret decadal probability hindcasts of global mean temperature. The Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), Proper Linear (PL) score, and IJ Good’s logarithmic score (also referred to as Ignorance) are compared; although information from all three may be useful, the logarithmic score has an immediate interpretation and is not insensitive to forecast busts. Neither CRPS nor PL is local; this is shown to produce counter intuitive evaluations by CRPS. Benchmark forecasts from empirical models like Dynamic Climatology place the scores in context. Comparing scores for forecast systems based on physical models (in this case HadCM3, from the CMIP5 decadal archive) against such benchmarks is more informative than internal comparison systems based on similar physical simulation models with each other. It is shown that a forecast system based on HadCM3 out performs Dynamic Climatology in decadal global mean temperature hindcasts; Dynamic Climatology previously outperformed a forecast system based upon HadGEM2 and reasons for these results are suggested. Forecasts of aggregate data (5-year means of global mean temperature) are, of course, narrower than forecasts of annual averages due to the suppression of variance; while the average “distance” between the forecasts and a target may be expected to decrease, little if any discernible improvement in probabilistic skill is achieved.

Stereoscopic acuity and observation distance

The amount of depth perceived from a fixed pattern of horizontal disparities varies with viewing distance. We investigated whether thresholds for discriminating stereoscopic corrugations at a range of spatial frequencies were also affected by viewing distance or whether they were determined solely by the angular disparity in the stimulus prior to scaling. Although thresholds were found to be determined primarily by disparity over a broad range of viewing distances, they were on average a factor of two higher at the shortest viewing distance (28.5 cm) than at larger viewing distances (57 to 450 cm). We found the same pattern of results when subjects' accommodation was arranged to be the same at all viewing distances. The change in thresholds at close distances is in the direction expected if subjects' performance is limited by a minimum perceived depth.

Evolution of coronal mass ejection morphology with increasing heliocentric distance. II. In Situ observations

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are often observed to travel much faster than the ambient solar wind. If the relative speed between the two exceeds the fast magnetosonic velocity, then a shock wave will form. The Mach number and the shock standoff distance ahead of the ICME leading edge is measured to infer the vertical size of an ICME in a direction that is perpendicular to the solar wind flow. We analyze the shock standoff distance for 45 events varying between 0.5 AU and 5.5 AU in order to infer their physical dimensions. We find that the average ratio of the inferred vertical size to measured radial width, referred to as the aspect ratio, of an ICME is 2.8 ± 0.5. We also compare these results to the geometrical predictions from Paper I that forecast an aspect ratio between 3 and 6. The geometrical solution varies with heliocentric distance and appears to provide a theoretical maximum for the aspect ratio of ICMEs. The minimum aspect ratio appears to remain constant at 1 (i.e., a circular cross section) for all distances. These results suggest that possible distortions to the leading edge of ICMEs are frequent. But, these results may also indicate that the constants calculated in the empirical relationship correlating the different shock front need to be modified; or perhaps both distortions and a change in the empirical formulae are required.

Feature-point detection using distance transforms: Application to tracking tropical convective complexes

The identification, tracking, and statistical analysis of tropical convective complexes using satellite imagery is explored in the context of identifying feature points suitable for tracking. The feature points are determined based on the shape of complexes using the distance transform technique. This approach has been applied to the determination feature points for tropical convective complexes identified in a time series of global cloud imagery. The feature points are used to track the complexes, and from the tracks statistical diagnostic fields are computed. This approach allows the nature and distribution of organized deep convection in the Tropics to be explored.

Patterns of pollen and seed dispersal in a small, fragmented population of the wind-pollinated tree Araucaria angustifolia in southern Brazil

Paternity analysis based on eight microsatellite loci was used to investigate pollen and seed dispersal patterns of the dioecious wind- pollinated tree, Araucaria angustifolia. The study sites were a 5.4 ha isolated forest fragment and a small tree group situated 1.7 km away, located in Paran alpha State, Brazil. In the forest fragment, 121 males, 99 females, 66 seedlings and 92 juveniles were mapped and genotyped, together with 210 seeds. In the tree group, nine male and two female adults were mapped and genotyped, together with 20 seeds. Paternity analysis within the forest fragment indicated that at least 4% of the seeds, 3% of the seedlings and 7% of the juveniles were fertilized by pollen from trees in the adjacent group, and 6% of the seeds were fertilized by pollen from trees outside these stands. The average pollination distance within the forest fragment was 83 m; when the tree group was included the pollination distance was 2006m. The average number of effective pollen donors was estimated as 12.6. Mother- trees within the fragment could be assigned to all seedlings and juveniles, suggesting an absence of seed immigration. The distance of seedlings and juveniles from their assigned mother- trees ranged from 0.35 to 291m ( with an average of 83m). Significant spatial genetic structure among adult trees, seedlings, and juveniles was detected up to 50m, indicating seed dispersal over a short distance. The effective pollination neighborhood ranged from 0.4 to 3.3 ha. The results suggest that seed dispersal is restricted but that there is longdistance pollen dispersal between the forest fragment and the tree group; thus, the two stands of trees are not isolated.

Caring at a distance: Gift Theory, aid chains and social movements

This paper takes as its starting point recent work on caring for distant others which is one expression of renewed interest in moral geographies. It examines relationships in aid chains connecting donors/carers in the First World or North and recipients/cared for in the Third World or South. Assuming predominance of relationships between strangers and of universalism as a basis for moral motivation I draw upon Gift Theory in order to characterize two basic forms of gift relationship. The first is purely altruistic, the other fully reciprocal and obligatory within the framework of institutions, values and social forces within specific relationships of politics and power. This conception problematizes donor-recipient relationships in the context of two modernist models of aid chains-the Resource Transfer and the Beyond Aid Paradigms. In the first, donor domination means low levels of reciprocity despite rhetoric about partnership and participation. The second identifies potential for greater reciprocity on the basis of combination between social movements and non-governmental organizations at both national and trans-national levels, although at the risk of marginalizing competencies of states. Finally, I evaluate post-structural critiques which also problematize aid chain relationships. They do so both in terms of bases-such as universals and difference-upon which it might be constructed and the means-such as forms of positionality and mutuality-by which it might be achieved.

Adsorption of water vapor by bare soil in an olive grove in southern Spain

Data for water vapor adsorption and evaporation are presented for a bare soil (sandy loam, clay content 15%) in a southern Spanish olive grove. Water losses and gains were measured using eight high-precision minilysimeters, placed around an olive tree, which had been irrigated until the soil reached field capacity (similar to 0.22 m(3) m(-3)). They were subsequently left to dry for 10 days. A pair of lysimeters was situated at each of the main points of the compass (N, E, S, W), at a distance of 1 m (the inner set of lysimeters; ILS) and 2 m (the outer set of lysimeters; OLS), respectively, from the tree trunk. Distinct periods of moisture loss (evaporation) and moisture gain (vapor adsorption) could be distinguished for each day. Vapor adsorption often started just after noon and generally lasted until the (early) evening. Values of up to 0.7 mm of adsorbed water per day were measured. Adsorption was generally largest for the OLS (up to 100% more on a daily basis), and increased during the dry down. This was mainly the result of lower OLS surface soil moisture contents (period-average absolute difference similar to 0.005 m(3) m(-3)), as illustrated using various analyses employing a set of micrometeorological equations describing the exchange of water vapor between bare soil and the atmosphere. These analyses also showed that the amount of water vapor adsorbed by soils is very sensitive to changes in atmospheric forcing and surface variables. The use of empirical equations to estimate vapor adsorption is therefore not recommended.

Preparation and properties of gallaborane, GaBH6: structure of the gaseous molecule H2Ga(μ-H)2BH2 as determined by vibrational, electron diffraction, and ab initio studies, and structure of the crystalline solid at 110 K as determined by x-ray diffraction``

Gallaborane (GaBH6, 1), synthesized by the metathesis of LiBH4 with [H2GaCl]n at ca. 250 K, has been characterized by chemical analysis and by its IR and 1H and 11B NMR spectra. The IR spectrum of the vapor at low pressure implies the presence of only one species, viz. H2Ga(μ-H)2BH2, with a diborane-like structure conforming to C2v symmetry. The structure of this molecule has been determined by gas-phase electron diffraction (GED) measurements afforced by the results of ab initio molecular orbital calculations. Hence the principal distances (rα in Å) and angles ( α in deg) are as follows: r(Ga•••B), 2.197(3); r(Ga−Ht), 1.555(6); r(Ga−Hb), 1.800(6); r(B−Ht), 1.189(7); r(B−Hb), 1.286(7); Hb−Ga−Hb, 71.6(4); and Hb−B−Hb, 110.0(5) (t = terminal, b = bridging). Aggregation of the molecules occurs in the condensed phases. X-ray crystallographic studies of a single crystal at 110 K reveal a polymeric network with helical chains made up of alternating pseudotetrahedral GaH4 and BH4 units linked through single hydrogen bridges; the average Ga•••B distance is now 2.473(7) Å. The compound decomposes in the condensed phases at temperatures exceeding ca. 240 K with the formation of elemental Ga and H2 and B2H6. The reactions with NH3, Me3N, and Me3P are also described.

The binding site distance test score: a robust method for the assessment of predicted protein binding sites

We propose a novel method for scoring the accuracy of protein binding site predictions – the Binding-site Distance Test (BDT) score. Recently, the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) has been used to evaluate binding site predictions, both by developers of new methods and by the assessors for the community wide prediction experiment – CASP8. Whilst being a rigorous scoring method, the MCC does not take into account the actual 3D location of the predicted residues from the observed binding site. Thus, an incorrectly predicted site that is nevertheless close to the observed binding site will obtain an identical score to the same number of nonbinding residues predicted at random. The MCC is somewhat affected by the subjectivity of determining observed binding residues and the ambiguity of choosing distance cutoffs. By contrast the BDT method produces continuous scores ranging between 0 and 1, relating to the distance between the predicted and observed residues. Residues predicted close to the binding site will score higher than those more distant, providing a better reflection of the true accuracy of predictions. The CASP8 function predictions were evaluated using both the MCC and BDT methods and the scores were compared. The BDT was found to strongly correlate with the MCC scores whilst also being less susceptible to the subjectivity of defining binding residues. We therefore suggest that this new simple score is a potentially more robust method for future evaluations of protein-ligand binding site predictions.

Bayes estimates of distance-to-market: Transactions costs, cooperatives and milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands

Rationalizing non-participation as a resource deficiency in the household, this paper identifies strategies for milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands. The additional amounts of covariates required for Positive marketable surplus -'distances-to market'-are computed from a model in which production and sales are correlated; sales are left-censored at some Unobserved thresholds production efficiencies are heterogeneous: and the data are in the form of a panel. Incorporating these features into the modeling exercise ant because they are fundamental to the data-generating environment. There are four reasons. First, because production and sales decisions are enacted within the same household, both decisions are affected by the same exogenous shocks, and production and sales are therefore likely to be correlated. Second. because selling, involves time and time is arguably the most important resource available to a subsistence household, the minimum Sales amount is not zero but, rather, some unobserved threshold that lies beyond zero. Third. the Potential existence of heterogeneous abilities in management, ones that lie latent from the econometrician's perspective, suggest that production efficiencies should be permitted to vary across households. Fourth, we observe a single set of households during multiple visits in a single production year. The results convey clearly that institutional and production) innovations alone are insufficient to encourage participation. Market-precipitating innovation requires complementary inputs, especially improvements in human capital and reductions in risk. Copyright (c) 20 08 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dual technological development in Botswana agriculture: A Stochastic input distance function approach

To improve the welfare of the rural poor and keep them in the countryside, the government of Botswana has been spending 40% of the value of agricultural GDP on agricultural support services. But can investment make smallholder agriculture prosperous in such adverse conditions? This paper derives an answer by applying a two-output six-input stochastic translog distance function, with inefficiency effects and biased technical change to panel data for the 18 districts and the commercial agricultural sector, from 1979 to 1996 This model demonstrates that herds are the most important input, followed by draft power. land and seeds. Multilateral indices for technical change, technical efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) show that the technology level of the commercial agricultural sector is more than six times that of traditional agriculture and that the gap has been increasing, due to technological regression in traditional agriculture and modest progress in commercial agriculture. Since the levels of efficiency are similar, the same patient is repeated by the TFP indices. This result highlights the policy dilemma of the trade-off between efficiency and equity objectives.