Formative assessment in teacher education: the development of a diagnostic language test for trainee teachers of German

This article describes the development and validation of a diagnostic test of German and its integration in a programme of formative assessment during a one-year initial teacher-training course. The test focuses on linguistic aspects that cause difficulty for trainee teachers of German as a foreign language and assesses implicit and explicit grammatical knowledge as well as students' confidence in this knowledge. Administration of the test to 57 German speakers in four groups (first-year undergraduates, fourth-year undergraduates, postgraduate trainees, and native speakers) provided evidence of its reliability and validity.

Brief cognitive behavioural therapy for extreme shape concern: an evaluation

Objectives. This study was designed to evaluate a new brief cognitive-behavioural intervention to reduce concerns about body shape. Design. Women with high levels of shape concern (N = 50) were randomly assigned to cognitive behaviour therapy or applied relaxation (AR). Baseline assessments were made and then women received their treatment immediately after this assessment, ('immediate' treatment) or 5 weeks after this assessment, during which time no treatment was given ('delayed' treatment, DT). Methods. Shape concern and related cognitions and emotions were assessed at baseline, post-treatment and at 4 and 12 week follow-up (FU). Results. Immediate treatment was superior to DT in reducing shape concerns, and this difference was maintained at 4 week FU. The cognitive behavioural intervention was more effective than AR in changing shape concern and this difference was largely maintained for 3 months. Conclusions. These initial findings support the further investigation of this brief intervention.

The Mersey Basin: an historical assessment of water quality from an anecdotal perspective

The freshwaters of the Mersey Basin have been seriously polluted for over 200 years. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the water quality was relatively clean before the start of the Industrial Revolution. The development of the cotton and chemical industries increased the pollution load to rivers, and consequently a decline in biota supported by the water was observed. Industrial prosperity led to a rapid population increase and an increase in domestic effluent. Poor treatment of this waste meant that it was a significant pollutant. As industry intensified during the 19th century, the mix of pollutants grew more complex. Eventually, in the 1980s, the government acknowledged the problem and more effort was made to improve the water quality. Knowledge of social and economic history, as well as anecdotal evidence, has been used in this paper to extrapolate the changes in water quality that occurred. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The politics of weddings at Athens: an iconographic assessment

Despite recent scholarship that has suggested that most if not all Athenian vases were created primarily for the symposium, vases associated with weddings constitute a distinct range of Athenian products that were used at Athens in the period of the Peloponnesian War and its immediate aftermath (430-390 BCE). Just as the subject matter of sympotic vases suggested stories or other messages to the hetaireia among whom they were used, so the wedding vases may have conveyed messages to audiences at weddings. This paper is an assessment of these wedding vases with particular attention to function: how the images reflect the use of vases in wedding rituals (as containers and/or gifts); how the images themselves were understood and interpreted in the context of weddings; and the post-nuptial uses to which the vases were put. The first part is an iconographic overview of how the Athenian painters depicted weddings, with an emphasis on the display of pottery to onlookers and guests during the public parts of weddings, important events in the life of the polis. The second part focuses on a large group of late fifth century vases that depict personifications of civic virtues, normally in the retinue of Aphrodite (Pandemos). The images would reinforce social expectations, as they advertised the virtues that would create a happy marriage—Peitho, Harmonia (Harmony), and Eukleia (Good Repute)—and promise the benefits that might result from adherence to these values—Eudaimonia and Eutychia (Prosperity), Hygieia (Health), and Paidia (Play or Childrearing). Civic personifications could be interpreted on the private level—as personal virtues—and on the public level—as civic virtues— especially when they appeared on vases that functioned both in public and private, at weddings, which were public acknowledgments of private changes in the lives of individuals within the demos.

An assessment of the fine sediment dynamics in an upland river system: INCA-Sed modifications and implications for fisheries

There is a need for better links between hydrology and ecology, specifically between landscapes and riverscapes to understand how processes and factors controlling the transport and storage of environmental pollution have affected or will affect the freshwater biota. Here we show how the INCA modelling framework, specifically INCA-Sed (the Integrated Catchments model for Sediments) can be used to link sediment delivery from the landscape to sediment changes in-stream. INCA-Sed is a dynamic, process-based, daily time step model. The first complete description of the equations used in the INCA-Sed software (version 1.9.11) is presented. This is followed by an application of INCA-Sed made to the River Lugg (1077 km2) in Wales. Excess suspended sediment can negatively affect salmonid health. The Lugg has a large and potentially threatened population of both Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Brown Trout (Salmo trutta). With the exception of the extreme sediment transport processes, the model satisfactorily simulated both the hydrology and the sediment dynamics in the catchment. Model results indicate that diffuse soil loss is the most important sediment generation process in the catchment. In the River Lugg, the mean annual Guideline Standard for suspended sediment concentration, proposed by UKTAG, of 25 mg l− 1 is only slightly exceeded during the simulation period (1995–2000), indicating only minimal effect on the Atlantic salmon population. However, the daily time step simulation of INCA-Sed also allows the investigation of the critical spawning period. It shows that the sediment may have a significant negative effect on the fish population in years with high sediment runoff. It is proposed that the fine settled particles probably do not affect the salmonid egg incubation process, though suspended particles may damage the gills of fish and make the area unfavourable for spawning if the conditions do not improve.

Use of fibrolytic enzymes to improve the nutritive value of ruminant diets - A biochemical and in vitro rumen degradation assessment

Two commercial enzyme products, Depol 40 (D) and Liquicell 2500 (L), were characterised from a biochemical standpoint and their potential to improve rumen degradation of forages was evaluated in vitro. Enzyme activities were determined at pH 5.5 and 39 degreesC. Analysis of the enzyme activities indicated that L contained higher xylanase and endoglucanase, but lower exoglucanase, pectinase and alpha-amylase activities than D. The Reading Pressure Technique (RPT) was used to investigate the effect of enzyme addition on the in vitro gas production (GP) and organic matter degradation (OMD) of alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) stems and leaves. A completely randomised design with factorial arrangement of treatments was used. Both alfalfa fractions were untreated or treated with each enzyme at four levels, 20 h before incubation with rumen fluid. Each level of enzyme provided similar amounts of filter paper (D1, L1), endoglucanase (D2, L2), alpha-L-arabinofuranosidase (D3, L3) and xylanase units (D4, L4) per gram forage DM. Enzymes increased the initial OMD in both fractions, with improvements of up to 15% in leaves (D4) and 8% in stems (L2) after 12 h incubation. All enzyme treatments increased the extent of degradation (96 h incubation) in the leaf fractions, but only L2 increased final OMD in the stems. Direct hydrolysis of forage fractions during the pre-treatment period did not fully account for the magnitude of the increases in OMD, suggesting that the increase in rate of degradation was achieved through a combined effect of direct enzyme hydrolysis and synergistic action between the exogenous (applied) and endogenous (rumen) enzymes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Very short delays prior to escape from potential predators may function efficiently as adaptive risk-assessment periods

Periods between predator detection and an escape response (escape delays) by prey upon attack by a predator often arise because animals trade-off the benefits such a delay gives for assessing risk accurately with the costs of not escaping as quickly as possible. We tested whether freezing behaviour (complete immobility in a previously foraging bird) observed in chaffinches before escaping from an approaching potential threat functions as a period of risk-assessment, and whether information on predator identity is gained even when time available is very short. We flew either a model of a sparrowhawk (predator) or a woodpigeon (no threat) at single chaffinches. Escape delays were significantly shorter with the hawk, except when a model first appeared close to the chaffinch. Chaffinches were significantly more vigilant when they resumed feeding after exposure to the sparrowhawk compared to the woodpigeon showing that they were able to distinguish between threats, and this applied even when time available for assessment was short (an average of 0.29 s). Our results show freezing in chaffinches functions as an effective economic risk assessment period, and that threat information is gained even when very short periods of time are available during an attack.

Gene flow, risk assessment and the environmental release of transgenic plants

The release of genetically modified plants is governed by regulations that aim to provide an assessment of potential impact on the environment. One of the most important components of this risk assessment is an evaluation of the probability of gene flow. In this review, we provide an overview of the current literature on gene flow from transgenic plants, providing a framework of issues for those considering the release of a transgenic plant into the environment. For some plants gene flow from transgenic crops is well documented, and this information is discussed in detail in this review. Mechanisms of gene flow vary from plant species to plant species and range from the possibility of asexual propagation, short- or long-distance pollen dispersal mediated by insects or wind and seed dispersal. Volunteer populations of transgenic plants may occur where seed is inadvertently spread during harvest or commercial distribution. If there are wild populations related to the transgenic crop then hybridization and eventually introgression in the wild may occur, as it has for herbicide resistant transgenic oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Tools to measure the amount of gene flow, experimental data measuring the distance of pollen dispersal, and experiments measuring hybridization and seed survivability are discussed in this review. The various methods that have been proposed to prevent gene flow from genetically modified plants are also described. The current "transgenic traits'! in the major crops confer resistance to herbicides and certain insects. Such traits could confer a selective advantage (an increase in fitness) in wild plant populations in some circumstances, were gene flow to occur. However, there is ample evidence that gene flow from crops to related wild species occurred before the development of transgenic crops and this should be taken into account in the risk assessment process.

Incorporation of in situ and biomarker assays in higher-tier assessment of the aquatic toxicity of insecticides

This study was designed to test the feasibility of integrating in situ, single species exposures and biomarker analysis into microcosm studies. Experimental ponds were dosed with pirimiphos methyl (PM) and lindane. C. riparius fourth instar larvae were deployed for 48 h on nine separate occasions during the study period before and after treatment. Surviving larvae were analysed for acetylcholinesterase activity (AChE). Survival and biomarker data were compared to chironomid assemblage analysis by monitoring insects emerging from the microcosms. Survival of chironomids within the in situ systems commenced on day + 16 after treatment with 31.6% and 53.3% survival in the lindane and PM treated ponds, respectively. In contrast, the first emergence from the microcosms occurred on days + 27, in respect to lindane, and + 59 for the PM treated ponds. Thus the in situ bioassay was able to demonstrate gradual reduction in toxicity within the sediment before this was evident from macroinvertebrate monitoring. Significant ACNE inhibition was only detected on exposure to PM. Levels decreased from 75% on day + 16 to 26% by day +29. The biomarker analysis confirmed that, by the end of the study, the insecticide was no longer exerting an effect. We discuss how the use of in situ bioassays could also aid comparison of microcosm studies by adding a standardized dimension. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An integrated assessment of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the UK

Geological carbon dioxide storage (CCS) has the potential to make a significant contribution to the decarbonisation of the UK. Amid concerns over maintaining security, and hence diversity, of supply, CCS could allow the continued use of coal, oil and gas whilst avoiding the CO2 emissions currently associated with fossil fuel use. This project has explored some of the geological, environmental, technical, economic and social implications of this technology. The UK is well placed to exploit CCS with a large offshore storage capacity, both in disused oil and gas fields and saline aquifers. This capacity should be sufficient to store CO2 from the power sector (at current levels) for a least one century, using well understood and therefore likely to be lower-risk, depleted hydrocarbon fields and contained parts of aquifers. It is very difficult to produce reliable estimates of the (potentially much larger) storage capacity of the less well understood geological reservoirs such as non-confined parts of aquifers. With the majority of its large coal fired power stations due to be retired during the next 15 to 20 years, the UK is at a natural decision point with respect to the future of power generation from coal; the existence of both national reserves and the infrastructure for receiving imported coal makes clean coal technology a realistic option. The notion of CCS as a ‘bridging’ or ‘stop-gap’ technology (i.e. whilst we develop ‘genuinely’ sustainable renewable energy technologies) needs to be examined somewhat critically, especially given the scale of global coal reserves. If CCS plant is built, then it is likely that technological innovation will bring down the costs of CO2 capture, such that it could become increasingly attractive. As with any capitalintensive option, there is a danger of becoming ‘locked-in’ to a CCS system. The costs of CCS in our model for UK power stations in the East Midlands and Yorkshire to reservoirs in the North Sea are between £25 and £60 per tonne of CO2 captured, transported and stored. This is between about 2 and 4 times the current traded price of a tonne of CO2 in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. In addition to the technical and economic requirements of the CCS technology, it should also be socially and environmentally acceptable. Our research has shown that, given an acceptance of the severity and urgency of addressing climate change, CCS is viewed favourably by members of the public, provided it is adopted within a portfolio of other measures. The most commonly voiced concern from the public is that of leakage and this remains perhaps the greatest uncertainty with CCS. It is not possible to make general statements concerning storage security; assessments must be site specific. The impacts of any potential leakage are also somewhat uncertain but should be balanced against the deleterious effects of increased acidification in the oceans due to uptake of elevated atmospheric CO2 that have already been observed. Provided adequate long term monitoring can be ensured, any leakage of CO2 from a storage site is likely to have minimal localised impacts as long as leaks are rapidly repaired. A regulatory framework for CCS will need to include risk assessment of potential environmental and health and safety impacts, accounting and monitoring and liability for the long term. In summary, although there remain uncertainties to be resolved through research and demonstration projects, our assessment demonstrates that CCS holds great potential for significant cuts in CO2 emissions as we develop long term alternatives to fossil fuel use. CCS can contribute to reducing emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere in the near term (i.e. peak-shaving the future atmospheric concentration of CO2), with the potential to continue to deliver significant CO2 reductions over the long term.

Changing patterns of cognitive-motor interference (CMI) over time during recovery from stroke

Objective: To explore the extent and nature of change in cognitive-motor interference (CMI) among rehabilitating stroke patients who showed dual-task gait decrement at initial assessment. Design: Experimental, with in-subjects, repeated measures design. Setting: Rehabilitation centre for adults with acquired, nonprogressive brain injury. Subjects: Ten patients with unilateral stroke, available for reassessment 1-9 months following their participation in a study of CMI after brain injury. Measures: Median stride duration; mean word generation. Methods: Two x one-minute walking trials, two x one-minute word generation trials, two x one-minute trials of simultaneous walking and word generation; 10-metre walking time; Barthel ADL Scale score. Results: Seven out of ten patients showed reduction over time in dual-task gait decrement. Three out of ten showed reduction in cognitive decrement. Only one showed concomitant reduction in gait and word generation decrement. Conclusion: Extent of CMI during relearning to walk after a stroke reduced over time in the majority of patients. Effects were more evident in improved stride duration than improved cognitive performance. Measures of multiple task performance should be included in assessment for functional recovery.

Case studies to demonstrate the range of applications of the Southampton Hand Assessment Procedure

The Southampton Hand Assessment Procedure (SHAP) was devised to assess quantitatively the functional range of injured and healthy adult hands. It was designed to be a practical tool for use in a busy clinical setting; thus, it was made simple to use and easy to interpret. This paper describes four examples of its use: before and after a surgical procedure, to observe the impact of an injury, use with prostheses, and during recovery following a fracture. The cases show that the SHAP is capable of monitoring progress and recovery, identifying functional abilities in prosthetic hands and comparing the capabilities of different groups of injuries.

A generic model of Exergy Assessment of the Environmental Impact for the Building Lifecycle

A generic model of Exergy Assessment is proposed for the Environmental Impact of the Building Lifecycle, with a special focus on the natural environment. Three environmental impacts: energy consumption, resource consumption and pollutant discharge have been analyzed with reference to energy-embodied exergy, resource chemical exergy and abatement exergy, respectively. The generic model of Exergy Assessment of the Environmental Impact of the Building Lifecycle thus formulated contains two sub-models, one from the aspect of building energy utilization and the other from building materials use. Combined with theories by ecologists such as Odum, the paper evaluates a building's environmental sustainability through its exergy footprint and environmental impacts. A case study from Chongqing, China illustrates the application of this method. From the case study, it was found that energy consumption constitutes 70–80% of the total environmental impact during a 50-year building lifecycle, in which the operation phase accounts for 80% of the total environmental impact, the building material production phase 15% and 5% for the other phases.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Changes in the Mediterranean climate during the Holocene: insights from global and regional climate modelling

Palaeoproxy records alone are seldom sufficient to provide a full assessment of regional palaeoclimates. To better understand the possible changes in the Mediterranean climate during the Holocene, a series of palaeoclimate integrations for periods spanning the last 12 000 years have been performed and their results diagnosed. These simulations use the HadSM3 global climate model, which is then dynamically downscaled to approximately 50 km using a consistent regional climate model (HadRM3). Changes in the model’s seasonal-mean surface air temperatures and precipitation are discussed at both global and regional scales, along with the physical mechanisms underlying the changes. It is shown that the global model reproduces many of the large-scale features of the mid-Holocene climate (consistent with previous studies) and that the results suggest that many areas within the Mediterranean region were wetter during winter with a stronger seasonal cycle of surface air temperatures during the early Holocene. This precipitation signal in the regional model is strongest in the in the northeast Mediterranean (near Turkey), consistent with low-level wind patterns and earlier palaeosyntheses. It is, however, suggested that further work is required to fully understand the changes in the winter circulation patterns over the Mediterranean region.