Modelling nitrogen fluxes from the land surface to the coastal zone in European systems: the perspective of the INCA project

This paper describes the results and conclusions of the INCA (Integrated Nitrogen Model for European CAtchments) project and sets the findings in the context of the ELOISE (European Land-Ocean Interaction Studies) programme. The INCA project was concerned with the development of a generic model of the major factors and processes controlling nitrogen dynamics in European river systems, thereby providing a tool (a) to aid the scientific understanding of nitrogen transport and retention in catchments and (b) for river-basin management and policy-making. The findings of the study highlight the heterogeneity of the factors and processes controlling nitrogen dynamics in freshwater systems. Nonetheless, the INCA model was able to simulate the in-stream nitrogen concentrations and fluxes observed at annual and seasonal timescales in Arctic, Continental and Maritime-Temperate regimes. This result suggests that the data requirements and structural complexity of the INCA model are appropriate to simulate nitrogen fluxes across a wide range of European freshwater environments. This is a major requirement for the production of coupled fiver-estuary-coastal shelf models for the management of our aquatic environment. With regard to river-basin management, to achieve an efficient reduction in nutrient fluxes from the land to the estuarine and coastal zone, the model simulations suggest that management options must be adaptable to the prevailing environmental and socio-economic factors in individual catchments: 'Blanket approaches' to environmental policy appear too simple. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative response of the longevity of seed of twelve crops to temperature and moisture in hermetic storage

Seeds of 39 seed lots of a total of twelve different crops were stored hermetically in a wide range of air-dry environments (2-25% moisture content at 0-50 degrees C), viability assessed periodically, and the seed viability equation constants estimated. Within a species, estimates of the constants which quantify absolute longevity (K-E) and the relative effects on longevity of moisture content (C-W) and temperature (C-H and C-Q) did not differ (P >0.05 to P >0.25) among lots. Comparison among the 12 crops provided variant estimates of K-E and C-W (P< 0.01), but common values of C-H and C-Q (0.0322 and 0.000454, respectively, P >0.25). Maize (Zea mays) provided the greatest estimate of K-E (9.993, s.e.= 0.456), followed by sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) (9.381, s.e. 0.428), pearl millet (Pennisetum typhoides) (9.336, s.e.= 0.408), sugar beet (Beta vulgaris) (8.988, s.e.= 0.387), African rice (Oryza glaberrima) (8.786, s.e.= 0.484), wheat (Triticum aestivum) (8.498, s.e.= 0.431), foxtail millet (Setaria italica) (8.478, s.e.= 0.396), sugarcane (Saccharum sp.) (8.454, s.e.= 0.545), finger millet (Eleusine coracana) (8.288, s.e.= 0.392), kodo millet (Paspalum scrobiculatum) (8.138, s.e.= 0.418), rice (Oryza sativa) (8.096, s.e.= 0.416) and potato (Solanum tuberosum) (8.037, s.e.= 0.397). Similarly, estimates of C-W were ranked maize (5.993, s.e.= 0.392), pearl millet (5.540, s.e.= 0.348), sorghum (5.379, s.e.=0.365), potato (5.152, s.e.= 0.347), sugar beet (4.969, s.e.= 0.328), sugar cane (4.964, s.e.= 0.518), foxtail millet (4.829, s.e.= 0.339), wheat (4.836, s.e.= 0.366), African rice (4.727, s.e.= 0.416), kodo millet (4.435, s.e.= 0.360), finger millet (4.345, s.e.= 0.336) and rice (4.246, s.e.= 0.355). The application of these constants to long-term seed storage is discussed.

Emergence of Chenopodium album and Stellaria media of different origins under different climatic conditions

The emergence behaviour of weed species in relation to cultural and meteorological events was studied. Dissimilarities between populations in dormancy and germination ecology, between-year maturation conditions and seed quality and burial site climate all contribute to potentially unpredictable variability. Therefore, a weed emergence data set was produced for weed seeds of Stellaria media and Chenopodium album matured and collected from three populations (Italy, Sweden and UK). The seeds were collected in two consecutive seasons (1999 and 2000) and subsequently buried in the autumn of the same year of maturation in eight contrasting climatic locations throughout Europe and the USA. The experiment sought to explore and explain differences between the three populations in their emergence behaviour. Evidence was demonstrated of synchrony in the timing of the emergence of different populations of a species at a given burial site. The relative magnitudes of emergence from the three populations at a given burial site in a given year were generally similar across all the burial sites in the study. The resulting data set was also used to construct a simple weed emergence model, which was tested for its application to the range of different burial environments and populations. The study demonstrated the possibility of using a simple thermal time-based model to describe part of the emergence behaviour across different burial sites, seed populations and seasons, and a simple winter chilling relationship to adjust for the magnitude of the flush of emergence at a given burial site. This study demonstrates the possibility of developing robust generic models for simple predictions of emergence timing across populations.

Sampling uncertainty properties of cloud fraction estimates from random transect observations

[1] Cloud cover is conventionally estimated from satellite images as the observed fraction of cloudy pixels. Active instruments such as radar and Lidar observe in narrow transects that sample only a small percentage of the area over which the cloud fraction is estimated. As a consequence, the fraction estimate has an associated sampling uncertainty, which usually remains unspecified. This paper extends a Bayesian method of cloud fraction estimation, which also provides an analytical estimate of the sampling error. This method is applied to test the sensitivity of this error to sampling characteristics, such as the number of observed transects and the variability of the underlying cloud field. The dependence of the uncertainty on these characteristics is investigated using synthetic data simulated to have properties closely resembling observations of the spaceborne Lidar NASA-LITE mission. Results suggest that the variance of the cloud fraction is greatest for medium cloud cover and least when conditions are mostly cloudy or clear. However, there is a bias in the estimation, which is greatest around 25% and 75% cloud cover. The sampling uncertainty is also affected by the mean lengths of clouds and of clear intervals; shorter lengths decrease uncertainty, primarily because there are more cloud observations in a transect of a given length. Uncertainty also falls with increasing number of transects. Therefore a sampling strategy aimed at minimizing the uncertainty in transect derived cloud fraction will have to take into account both the cloud and clear sky length distributions as well as the cloud fraction of the observed field. These conclusions have implications for the design of future satellite missions. This paper describes the first integrated methodology for the analytical assessment of sampling uncertainty in cloud fraction observations from forthcoming spaceborne radar and Lidar missions such as NASA's Calipso and CloudSat.

Rational expectations? Developer behaviour and development cycles in the central London office market

Purpose – Expectations of future market conditions are acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. The purpose of this paper is to study the central London office market from 1987 to 2009 and test for evidence of rational, adaptive and naive expectations. Design/methodology/approach – Two parallel approaches are applied to test for either rational or adaptive/naive expectations: vector auto-regressive (VAR) approach with Granger causality tests and recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts. Findings – Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, the authors do not find evidence of adaptive and naïve expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags between market signal and construction starts vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developer decisions are explained, to a large extent, by contemporaneous and historic conditions in both the City and the West End, but this is more likely to stem from the lengthy design, financing and planning permission processes rather than adaptive or naive expectations. Research limitations/implications – More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of large demand shocks and/or irrational behaviour. Practical implications – Developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. Originality/value – This paper focuses the scholarly debate of real estate cycles on the role of expectations. It is also one of very few spatially disaggregate studies of the subject matter.

Influence of dietary protein intake and glycemic index on the association between TCF7L2 HapA and weight gain

BACKGROUND: Genetic polymorphisms of transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2) have been associated with type 2 diabetes and BMI. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to investigate whether TCF7L2 HapA is associated with weight development and whether such an association is modulated by protein intake or by the glycemic index (GI). DESIGN: The investigation was based on prospective data from 5 cohort studies nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Weight change was followed up for a mean (±SD) of 6.8 ± 2.5 y. TCF7L2 rs7903146 and rs10885406 were successfully genotyped in 11,069 individuals and used to derive HapA. Multiple logistic and linear regression analysis was applied to test for the main effect of HapA and its interaction with dietary protein or GI. Analyses from the cohorts were combined by random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: HapA was associated neither with baseline BMI (0.03 ± 0.07 BMI units per allele; P = 0.6) nor with annual weight change (8.8 ± 11.7 g/y per allele; P = 0.5). However, a previously shown positive association between intake of protein, particularly of animal origin, and subsequent weight change in this population proved to be attenuated by TCF7L2 HapA (P-interaction = 0.01). We showed that weight gain becomes independent of protein intake with an increasing number of HapA alleles. Substitution of protein with either fat or carbohydrates showed the same effects. No interaction with GI was observed. CONCLUSION: TCF7L2 HapA attenuates the positive association between animal protein intake and long-term body weight change in middle-aged Europeans but does not interact with the GI of the diet.

Testing for bubbles in indirect property price cycles

Speculative bubbles are generated when investors include the expectation of the future price in their information set. Under these conditions, the actual market price of the security, that is set according to demand and supply, will be a function of the future price and vice versa. In the presence of speculative bubbles, positive expected bubble returns will lead to increased demand and will thus force prices to diverge from their fundamental value. This paper investigates whether the prices of UK equity-traded property stocks over the past 15 years contain evidence of a speculative bubble. The analysis draws upon the methodologies adopted in various studies examining price bubbles in the general stock market. Fundamental values are generated using two models: the dividend discount and the Gordon growth. Variance bounds tests are then applied to test for bubbles in the UK property asset prices. Finally, cointegration analysis is conducted to provide further evidence on the presence of bubbles. Evidence of the existence of bubbles is found, although these appear to be transitory and concentrated in the mid-to-late 1990s.

The permeability parameter of the outer membrane of pseudomonas aeruginosa Varies with the concentration of a test substrate, cephalosporin C

The permeability parameter (C) for the movement of cephalosporin C across the outer membrane of Pseudomonas aeruginosa was measured using the widely accepted method of Zimmermann & Rosselet. In one experiment, the value of C varied continuously from 4·2 to 10·8 cm3 min-1 (mg dry wt cells)-1 over a range of concentrations of the test substrate, cephalosporin C, from 50 to 5 μm. Dependence of C on the concentration of test substrate was still observed when the effect of a possible electric potential difference across the outer membrane was corrected for. In quantitative studies of β-lactam permeation the dependence of C on the concentration of β-lactam should be taken into account.

Pesticides and other micro-organic contaminants in freshwater sedimentary environments - a review

A wide range of issues relating to the presence and fate of pesticides and other micro-organic contaminants (MOCs) in surface freshwater sedimentary environments is reviewed. These issues include the sources, transport and occurrence of MOCs in freshwater environments; their ecological effects; their interaction with sedimentary material; and a range of processes related to their fate, including degradation, diffusion in bed sediments, bioturbation and slow contaminant release. An emphasis is placed on those processes-chemical, physical or biological-in which sediments play a role in determining the fate of micro-organics in freshwater environments. The issues of occurrence, source and transport, and the ecological effects of micro-organics are introduced more briefly, the focus where these aspects are concerned being largely on pesticides. In the concluding section, key points and issues relating to the study of micro-organics in freshwater environments are summarised and areas where initial or further research would be welcome are highlighted. It is hoped that this paper will both form a useful reference for workers in the field of micro-organic contaminants, and also stimulate new work in the freshwater environment and beyond. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spectral properties, iron oxide content and provenance of Namib dune sands

This paper applies multispectral remote sensing techniques to map the Fe-oxide content over the entire Namib sand sea. Spectrometric analysis is applied to field samples to identify the reflectance properties of the dune sands which enable remotely sensed Fe-oxide mapping. The results indicate that the pattern of dune colour in the Namib sand sea arises from the mixing of at least two distinct sources of sand; a red component of high Fe-oxide content (present as a coating on the sand grains) which derives from the inland regions, particularly from major embayments into the Southern African escarpment; and a yellow coastal component of low Fe-oxide content which is brought into the area by northward-moving aeolian transport processes. These major provenances are separated by a mixing zone between 20 kin and 90 kin from the coast throughout the entire length of the sand sea. Previous workers have also recognised a third, fluvial, provenance, but the methodology applied here is not able to map this source as a distinct spectral component. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiple phases of North African humidity recorded in lacustrine sediments from the Fazzan Basin, Libyan Sahara

The Fazzan Basin of south-west Libya is at present arid with less than 20 mm of rainfall per annum. However, regionally extensive limestones, lacustrine sands and coquina (fossiliferous carbonate rock) deposits show that the Fazzan Basin previously contained a large palaeolake, indicating that the climate in the past was more humid. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating techniques have been applied to key lacustrine deposits within the basin in an attempt to provide an internally consistent chronology for this humidity record. Results indicate that palaeolake sediments within the Fazzan Basin record a very long history of palacohydrological change, ranging from present day and conditions to humidity capable of sustaining a lake with an approximate area of 76,250 km(2). The existence of humid periods in mid oxygen isotope stage 5 and the early Holocene is confirmed. An older lacustrine event, tentatively correlated to oxygen isotope stage 11, is also recognized. In addition, evidence is presented for at least two humid phases beyond the age range over which the conventional OSL dating technique is applicable. This study demonstrates that OSL dating of palaeolake sediments within the Fazzan Basin offers the potential to provide a detailed record of North African humidity spanning several glacial-interglacial cycles. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pesticides and other micro-organic contaminants in freshwater sedimentary environments - a review

A wide range of issues relating to the presence and fate of pesticides and other micro-organic contaminants (MOCs) in surface freshwater sedimentary environments is reviewed. These issues include the sources, transport and occurrence of MOCs in freshwater environments; their ecological effects; their interaction with sedimentary material; and a range of processes related to their fate, including degradation, diffusion in bed sediments, bioturbation and slow contaminant release. An emphasis is placed on those processes-chemical, physical or biological-in which sediments play a role in determining the fate of micro-organics in freshwater environments. The issues of occurrence, source and transport, and the ecological effects of micro-organics are introduced more briefly, the focus where these aspects are concerned being largely on pesticides. In the concluding section, key points and issues relating to the study of micro-organics in freshwater environments are summarised and areas where initial or further research would be welcome are highlighted. It is hoped that this paper will both form a useful reference for workers in the field of micro-organic contaminants, and also stimulate new work in the freshwater environment and beyond. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spectral properties, iron oxide content and provenance of Namib dune sands

This paper applies multispectral remote sensing techniques to map the Fe-oxide content over the entire Namib sand sea. Spectrometric analysis is applied to field samples to identify the reflectance properties of the dune sands which enable remotely sensed Fe-oxide mapping. The results indicate that the pattern of dune colour in the Namib sand sea arises from the mixing of at least two distinct sources of sand; a red component of high Fe-oxide content (present as a coating on the sand grains) which derives from the inland regions, particularly from major embayments into the Southern African escarpment; and a yellow coastal component of low Fe-oxide content which is brought into the area by northward-moving aeolian transport processes. These major provenances are separated by a mixing zone between 20 kin and 90 kin from the coast throughout the entire length of the sand sea. Previous workers have also recognised a third, fluvial, provenance, but the methodology applied here is not able to map this source as a distinct spectral component. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of energy flux partitioning in urban environments: links with surface seasonal properties

A better understanding of links between the properties of the urban environment and the exchange to the atmosphere is central to a wide range of applications. The numerous measurements of surface energy balance data in urban areas enable intercomparison of observed fluxes from distinct environments. This study analyzes a large database in two new ways. First, instead of normalizing fluxes using net all-wave radiation only the incoming radiative fluxes are used, to remove the surface attributes from the denominator. Second, because data are now available year-round, indices are developed to characterize the fraction of the surface (built; vegetation) actively engaged in energy exchanges. These account for shading patterns within city streets and seasonal changes in vegetation phenology; their impact on the partitioning of the incoming radiation is analyzed. Data from 19 sites in North America, Europe, Africa, and Asia (including 6-yr-long observation campaigns) are used to derive generalized surface–flux relations. The midday-period outgoing radiative fraction decreases with an increasing total active surface index, the stored energy fraction increases with an active built index, and the latent heat fraction increases with an active vegetated index. Parameterizations of these energy exchange ratios as a function of the surface indices [i.e., the Flux Ratio–Active Index Surface Exchange (FRAISE) scheme] are developed. These are used to define four urban zones that characterize energy partitioning on the basis of their active surface indices. An independent evaluation of FRAISE, using three additional sites from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE), yields accurate predictions of the midday flux partitioning at each location.

Using genomic DNA-based probe-selection to improve the sensitivity of high-density oligonucleotide arrays when applied to heterologous species

High-density oligonucleotide (oligo) arrays are a powerful tool for transcript profiling. Arrays based on GeneChip® technology are amongst the most widely used, although GeneChip® arrays are currently available for only a small number of plant and animal species. Thus, we have developed a method to improve the sensitivity of high-density oligonucleotide arrays when applied to heterologous species and tested the method by analysing the transcriptome of Brassica oleracea L., a species for which no GeneChip® array is available, using a GeneChip® array designed for Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynh. Genomic DNA from B. oleracea was labelled and hybridised to the ATH1-121501 GeneChip® array. Arabidopsis thaliana probe-pairs that hybridised to the B. oleracea genomic DNA on the basis of the perfect-match (PM) probe signal were then selected for subsequent B. oleracea transcriptome analysis using a .cel file parser script to generate probe mask files. The transcriptional response of B. oleracea to a mineral nutrient (phosphorus; P) stress was quantified using probe mask files generated for a wide range of gDNA hybridisation intensity thresholds. An example probe mask file generated with a gDNA hybridisation intensity threshold of 400 removed > 68 % of the available PM probes from the analysis but retained >96 % of available A. thaliana probe-sets. Ninety-nine of these genes were then identified as significantly regulated under P stress in B. oleracea, including the homologues of P stress responsive genes in A. thaliana. Increasing the gDNA hybridisation intensity thresholds up to 500 for probe-selection increased the sensitivity of the GeneChip® array to detect regulation of gene expression in B. oleracea under P stress by up to 13-fold. Our open-source software to create probe mask files is freely available http://affymetrix.arabidopsis.info/xspecies/ webcite and may be used to facilitate transcriptomic analyses of a wide range of plant and animal species in the absence of custom arrays.