Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

Dirty tariffication revisited: The EU and sugar

It is widely believed that a number of countries, including the EU, engaged in dirty tariffication during the Uruguay Round of trade talks. This article examines the EU’s record on sugar and finds little evidence to substantiate the claim. However, world prices increased between the base period (1986-88) and the date of implementation (1995), and so tariffication resulted in an increase in the tax that would have been charged on sugar imports into the EU. As well, the Special Safeguard provisions meant that a substantial additional levy could be charged.

Biofuel policies in the EU, US and Brazil

The development of biofuels has been one of the most visible and controversial manifestations of the use of biomass for energy. Biofuels policies in the EU, US and Brazil have been particularly important for the development of the industry in these three important markets. All three have used a variety of measures, including consumption or use mandates, tax incentives and import protection to promote the production and use of biofuels. Despite this, it is uncertain whether the EU will achieve its objective of a 10 per cent share for renewables in transport fuels by 2020. The US is also running into difficulties in meeting consumption mandates for biofuels. Questions are being raised about the continuation of tax credits and import protection. Brazil has liberalised its domestic ethanol market and adopted a more market-oriented approach to biofuels policy, but the management of domestic petroleum prices and the inter-relationship between the sugar market and ethanol production are important factors affecting domestic consumption and exports. In both the EU and the US an ongoing debate about the benefits of reliance on biofuels derived from food crops and concern about the efficacy of current biofuels policies may put their future in doubt.

An investigation into the relationship between values and commitment: a study of staff in the UK charity sector

Abstract The concept of values “fit” has been a significant theme in the management literature for many years. It is argued that where there is alignment of staff and organizational values a range of positive outcomes are encountered. What is unclear is how this translates into the charity sector. This study explores the phenomenon of values alignment in two UK charities. Questionnaires were used to measure staff values, perceptions of organization values and staff commitment. Drawing on the work of Finegan (2000), an interaction term is used as a proxy for fit. Analyses of data from 286 participants indicated that it was the perceptions of organization values that had the greatest impact on staff commitment. The alignment of staff values and perceptions of organization values only had a degree of effect within one of the charities. This challenges the dominant view on such alignment and the implications of this are discussed. Keywords staff, values fit, commitment, organizational identification

Evidence for the complex relationship between free amino acid and sugar concentrations and acrylamide-forming potential in potato

Free amino acids and reducing sugars participate in the Maillard reaction during high-temperature cooking and processing. This results not only in the formation of colour, aroma and flavour compounds, but also undesirable contaminants, including acrylamide, which forms when the amino acid that participates in the reaction is asparagine. In this study, tubers of 13 varieties of potato (Solanum tuberosum), which had been produced in a field trial in 2010 and sampled immediately after harvest or after storage for 6 months, were analysed to show the relationship between the concentrations of free asparagine, other free amino acids, sugars and acrylamide-forming potential. The varieties comprised five that are normally used for crisping, seven that are used for French fry production and one that is used for boiling. Acrylamide formation was measured in heated flour, and correlated with glucose and fructose concentration. In French fry varieties, which contain higher concentrations of sugars, acrylamide formation also correlated with free asparagine concentration, demonstrating the complex relationship between precursor concentration and acrylamide-forming potential in potato. Storage of the potatoes for 6 months at 9°C had a significant, variety-dependent impact on sugar and amino acid concentrations and acrylamide-forming potential.

Adaptation of Rhizobium leguminosarum to pea, alfalfa and sugar beet rhizospheres investigated by comparative transcriptomics

Background The rhizosphere is the microbe-rich zone around plant roots and is a key determinant of the biosphere's productivity. Comparative transcriptomics was used to investigate general and plant-specific adaptations during rhizosphere colonization. Rhizobium leguminosarum biovar viciae was grown in the rhizospheres of pea (its legume nodulation host), alfalfa (a non-host legume) and sugar beet (non-legume). Gene expression data were compared to metabolic and transportome maps to understand adaptation to the rhizosphere. Results Carbon metabolism was dominated by organic acids, with a strong bias towards aromatic amino acids, C1 and C2 compounds. This was confirmed by induction of the glyoxylate cycle required for C2 metabolism and gluconeogenesis in all rhizospheres. Gluconeogenesis is repressed in R. leguminosarum by sugars, suggesting that although numerous sugar and putative complex carbohydrate transport systems are induced in the rhizosphere, they are less important carbon sources than organic acids. A common core of rhizosphere-induced genes was identified, of which 66% are of unknown function. Many genes were induced in the rhizosphere of the legumes, but not sugar beet, and several were plant specific. The plasmid pRL8 can be considered pea rhizosphere specific, enabling adaptation of R. leguminosarum to its host. Mutation of many of the up-regulated genes reduced competitiveness for pea rhizosphere colonization, while two genes specifically up-regulated in the pea rhizosphere reduced colonization of the pea but not alfalfa rhizosphere. Conclusions Comparative transcriptome analysis has enabled differentiation between factors conserved across plants for rhizosphere colonization as well as identification of exquisite specific adaptation to host plants.

Cross-sector surveys assessing perceptions of key stakeholders towards barriers, concerns and facilitators to the appropriate use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Appropriately conducted adaptive designs (ADs) offer many potential advantages over conventional trials. They make better use of accruing data, potentially saving time, trial participants, and limited resources compared to conventional, fixed sample size designs. However, one can argue that ADs are not implemented as often as they should be, particularly in publicly funded confirmatory trials. This study explored barriers, concerns, and potential facilitators to the appropriate use of ADs in confirmatory trials among key stakeholders. Methods We conducted three cross-sectional, online parallel surveys between November 2014 and January 2015. The surveys were based upon findings drawn from in-depth interviews of key research stakeholders, predominantly in the UK, and targeted Clinical Trials Units (CTUs), public funders, and private sector organisations. Response rates were as follows: 30(55 %) UK CTUs, 17(68 %) private sector, and 86(41 %) public funders. A Rating Scale Model was used to rank barriers and concerns in order of perceived importance for prioritisation. Results Top-ranked barriers included the lack of bridge funding accessible to UK CTUs to support the design of ADs, limited practical implementation knowledge, preference for traditional mainstream designs, difficulties in marketing ADs to key stakeholders, time constraints to support ADs relative to competing priorities, lack of applied training, and insufficient access to case studies of undertaken ADs to facilitate practical learning and successful implementation. Associated practical complexities and inadequate data management infrastructure to support ADs were reported as more pronounced in the private sector. For funders of public research, the inadequate description of the rationale, scope, and decision-making criteria to guide the planned AD in grant proposals by researchers were all viewed as major obstacles. Conclusions There are still persistent and important perceptions of individual and organisational obstacles hampering the use of ADs in confirmatory trials research. Stakeholder perceptions about barriers are largely consistent across sectors, with a few exceptions that reflect differences in organisations’ funding structures, experiences and characterisation of study interventions. Most barriers appear connected to a lack of practical implementation knowledge and applied training, and limited access to case studies to facilitate practical learning. Keywords: Adaptive designs; flexible designs; barriers; surveys; confirmatory trials; Phase 3; clinical trials; early stopping; interim analyses

Storm prediction research and its application to the oil/gas industry

The accurate prediction of storms is vital to the oil and gas sector for the management of their operations. An overview of research exploring the prediction of storms by ensemble prediction systems is presented and its application to the oil and gas sector is discussed. The analysis method used requires larger amounts of data storage and computer processing time than other more conventional analysis methods. To overcome these difficulties eScience techniques have been utilised. These techniques potentially have applications to the oil and gas sector to help incorporate environmental data into their information systems

Localization of eIF4A-III in the nucleolus and splicing speckles is an indicator of plant stress

The mechanisms of long-term adaptation to low oxygen environment are quite well studied, but little is known about the sensing of oxygen shortage, the signal transduction and the short-term effects of hypoxia in plant cells. We have found that an RNA helicase eIF4A-III, a putative component of the Exon Junction Complex, rapidly changes its pattern of localisation in the plant nucleus under hypoxic conditions. In normal cell growth conditions GFP- eIF4A-III was mainly nucleoplasmic, but in hypoxia stress conditions it moved to the nucleolus and splicing speckles. This transition occurred within 15-20 min in Arabidopsis culture cells and seedling root cells, but took more than 2 h in tobacco BY-2 culture cells. Inhibition of respiration, transcription or phosphorylation in cells and ethanol treatment had similar effects to hypoxia. The most likely consequence is that a certain mRNA population will remain bound to the eIF4A-III and other mRNA processing proteins, rather than being transported from the nucleus to the cytoplasm, and thus its translation will be suspended.

UK commercial property lease structures: Landlord and tenant mismatch

UK commercial property lease structures have come under considerable scrutiny during the past decade since the property crash of the early 1990s. In particular, tenants complained that the system was unfair and that it has blocked business change. Government is committed, through its 2001 election manifesto, to promote flexibility and choice in the commercial property lettings market and a new voluntary Commercial Leases Code of Practice was launched in April 2002. This paper investigates whether occupiers are being offered the leases they require or whether there is a mismatch between occupier requirements and actual leases in the market. It draws together the substantial data now available on the actual terms of leases in the UK and surveys of corporate occupiers' attitude to their occupation requirements. Although the data indicated that UK leases have become shorter and more diverse since 1990, this is still not sufficient to meet the current requirements of many corporate occupiers. It is clear that the inability to manage entry and exit strategies is a major concern to occupiers. Lease length is the primary concern of tenants and a number of respondents comment on the mismatch between lease length in the UK and business planning horizons. The right to break and other problems with alienation clauses also pose serious difficulties for occupiers, thus reinforcing the mismatch. Other issues include repairing and insuring clauses and the type of review clause. There are differences in opinion between types of occupier. In particular, international corporate occupiers are significantly more concerned about the length of lease and the incidence of break clauses than national occupiers and private-sector tenants are significantly more concerned about leasing in general than public-sector occupiers. Proposed solutions by tenants are predictable and include shorter leases, more frequent breaks and relaxation of restrictions concerning alienation and other clauses. A significant number specify that they would pay more for shorter leases and other improved terms. Short leases would make many of the other terms more acceptable and this is why they are the main concern of corporate occupiers. Overall, the evidence suggests that there continues to be a gap between occupiers' lease requirements and those currently offered by the market. There are underlying structural factors that act as an inertial force on landlords and inhibit the changes which occupiers appear to want. Nevertheless, the findings raise future research questions concerning whether UK lease structures are a constraining factor on UK competitiveness.

Ionic calcium and pH as predictors of stability of milk to UHT processing

This paper describes the use of pH and calcium ion electrodes for investigating factors affecting the heat stability of UHT milk with added calcium chloride. Calcium chloride was added to raw milk to manipulate ionic calcium and pH to within the range that may be typically encountered in raw milk of different compositions and microbial quality. Addition of only 5 mM calcium chloride was sufficient to induce considerable changes in pH, ionic calcium and ethanol stability and alter its stability to UHT treatment. There was a strong relationship between pH decrease and increase in ionic calcium when pH was reduced, whether by addition of calcium chloride or by acidification. Calcium chloride addition was found to increase sediment formation in UHT treated milk. However, sediment could be reduced by addition of stabilizers. Those most effective were ones which decreased ionic calcium and increased pH, such as trisodium citrate and disodium hydrogen phosphate. Sediment formation following UHT treatment was only slight for milk samples whose ethanol stability was greater than 80%.

Analysis of Pan-European attitudes to the eradication and control of bovine viral diarrhoea

At present, national-level policies concerning the eradication and control of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) differ widely across Europe. Some Scandinavian countries have enacted strong regulatory frameworks to eradicate the disease, whereas other countries have few formal policies. To examine these differences, the attitudes of stakeholders and policy makers in 17 European countries were investigated. A web-based questionnaire was sent to policy makers, government and private sector veterinarians, and representatives of farmers' organisations. On total, 131 individuals responded to the questionnaire and their responses were analysed by applying a method used in sociolinguistics: frame analysis. The results showed that the different attitudes of countries that applied compulsory or voluntary frameworks were associated with different views about the attribution or blame for BVD and the roles ascribed to farmers and other stakeholders in its eradication and control.

Developments in the Doha Round and WTO dispute settlement: some implications for EU agricultural policy

Progress in the Doha Round is assessed against the changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP) brought about by the Fischler reforms of 2003-2004, and that proposed for sugar. An elimination of export subsidies could place EU exports of processed foods at a competitive disadvantage because of high sugar and milk prices. Provided the single payment scheme falls within the green box, the likely new limits on domestic support should not be problematic for the post-Fischler CAP. However, an ambitious market access package could open up EU markets and bring pressure for further reform. If there is no Doha agreement, existing provisions will continue to apply, but without the protection of the Peace Clause; and increased litigation is likely. Further CAP reform is to be expected.